Category Archives: the Baltic Dry Index

The new economic Black Death

The Black Plague, also known as the Black Death, took place in Europe from 1346 to 1353. In a span of seven years almost half the population of Europe was dead. Anywhere from 75 to 200 hundred million people died. It was the most horrible experience since the Fall of the Roman Empire in 476 AD. It was caused by a bacteria, Yersenia Pestis, aka, Pasteurella Pestis. It originated somewhere in China or Central Asia, and via the Black Sea trade entered Europe. The agent of transmission or vector was a rat aboard the trading ships. The population of Europe was estimated at around 250 to 350 million, and the population of the whole, known world was around one billion people. The Western Hemisphere was not known or had been discovered yet. Christopher Columbus discovered the New World in 1492.

In 2016, mankind ( with a world population of over 7 billion people) is facing another Black Death, caused not by bacteria but by human evil. There is no economic recovery in the West, and there will be no recovery until the West restructures totally and completely by embracing  a new system that will cherish life and the environment of the earth.

The economic system of the West, the new Neo-liberalism, has entered a phase of exhaustion from which there is no escape. The reason for the exhaustion is the immense debt which can no longer be sustained. There are several components to this world debt that must be explained.In 1944, the dollar became the official currency of the world as decreed by the Anglo-American Powers. All of the world’s trade would be done in dollars, and, the dollar would be the reserve currency of the world. The US became, in effect, the ruler of the world. The only country who opposed this arrangement was the USSR. That same year, Winston Churchill suggested,                “Operation Unthinkable”, the plan that Anglo-Americans join with Germans in fighting the Russians. The Cold War was in full swing. The official proclamation of Cold War was announced by Churchill in Fulton Head, Missouri in 1947.

The West, aka, the Anglo-American countries, realized that debt could be used as an instrument of power in re-enslaving the newly independent countries of Africa and Asia, by lending them money for so called “development.” The already independent Latin American countries were subjected to the same treatment with similar results, as were the Eastern European countries.

Domestically speaking, Americans were encouraged to go into debt. The reason for this was the fear that the slack in demand would lead into another “Great Depression”, and that was no,no policy in a time of “Cold War.” Wasteful consumption and debt was encouraged. Credit cards were created to increase consumption and debt. Economists glorified debt as good. Debt was no problem, the Americans were told, “after all we owe it to ourselves.”

Debt can be considered “safe and useful” in an economy that is growing, if wages and jobs are also rising. People feel good and secure. Buying houses on a mortgage is a sound economic policy. Also, in a prosperous economy, the crime rate decreases.

Internationally speaking, no effort is spared to indebt as much of the world as possible in dollars. The dollar indebtedness is the “Carte Blanche” for giant Western corporations to exploit the Third World. This situation enhances the power of the West and enslaves the rest.

The largest corporations are moving factories to the Third World because of the very cheap labor, and the cheap products are re-exported to the entire world at immense profits. By this policy, the US has de-industrialized itself, but enriched the trans-national corporations. This was the Age of Globalization which was pushed on the rest of the world. The World Trade Organization was established, which is above the law of each individual member country, as is the City of London above the British law, and the Federal Reserve Bank of the US, a private bank, is above the US laws. The trans-national corporations are modelled after the Dutch East India Company and the British East India Company. These two companies controlled the world trade in slavery, spices, and the opium trade with China. They were progenitors of modern globalization. Nothing has changed in the last five hundred years except technology and the intensity of plunder and exploitation.

The Third World is already in maximum debt and depression where the poor are already dying and the anger is growing. Third World countries are trying to pay the interest on their debt, and some are trying to pay the debt off, so commodities are cheap and the dollar is strong.

Domestically speaking, the West is suffering from lack of consumption, because the vast majority of people are barely making enough to survive. Unemployment rates of the European Union and the US are sky high. According to John Williams of Shadow Stats, the unemployment rate is 23 percent in the US, and the work force participation of 62.8 percent has been the lowest in years. The number of people out of the labor force who can and want to work is around 95,000,000. The number of people on food stamps is around 47,000,000. The velocity of money has collapsed which implies that people have no money to spend. Pay Day Loans with monthly interest rates of 20 percent or more are increasing. One should not wonder why crime, prostitution, and drug use are increasing. ( Incidentally, the Baltic Dry Index is decreasing, which is a sign of collapsing world trade.)

The economic system of the West and the World has entered the phase of exhaustion, and nothing can save it. The ruling elite of the West thinks that a massive war with Russia or China, even nuclear war, will save the system, but nothing will. There will be collapse of the monetary system based on usury, and those responsible will be punished. Hunger, starvation, and deprivation is on the horizon. Violent revolution is inevitable, and nuclear war cannot be excluded. Only time will tell.

 

The Dollar Armageddon

The essential plan of the West is total domination of the Earth, which would result in the flow of all natural resources and all natural wealth to the International Community of the West from the rest, as was done under Colonialism. This new phase of exploitation is being carried out under the banner of Globalization. The Anglo-Americans, the British Empire and the US, were the organizers of the new financial system in 1944 at Bretton Woods, New  Hampshire, US., today known as the Bretton Woods Agreement. The chief players were John Maynard Keynes of the UK, Harry Dexter White, and Henry Morgenthau Jr. of the US Treasury.

The Anglo-Americans realized that the Colonized World wanted to be decolonized and independent, and since they could not prevent decolonization, they decided they could slow it down and install their own puppets. Any new leader who rebelled against Western control would be overthrown or even killed. Winston Churchill proclaimed the Cold War against the USSR in 1947 in Fulton Head, Missouri, USA. Patrice Lumumba of the Belgian Congo comes to mind. He was impaled and killed in 1961.

Globalization began. Beautiful phrases, such as “Food for Peace” programs were used to entrap  newly independent states. Foreign Aid was used not to help but to enslave. The International Monetary Fund{IMF}, and the World Bank were the chief agents of debt enslavement.The Cold War was in full swing.

Despite the massive destruction of the USSR caused by the German invasion in the Second World War, the basic living standard of the Soviet Union was higher than that of the US.  Housing was tight, and families lived together in cramped quarters because of the war destruction, but the Soviet People had jobs, free education, free health care, one month vacation, and one year maternity leave with pay. Public transportation was available. Just compare the metro systems of the two countries in the nineteen fifties. Basic consumer goods were available, but an abundance of consumer goods was not. The Soviet People had job security and a sense of serenity which was not available to the West.

Western policy makers decided to push three things on the world: abundant consumerism vs socialist austerity, wide spread debt at home and abroad, and world-wide militarization as exemplified by NATO, SEATO, and CENTO*; in other words globalization. US banks and corporations were everywhere. American Culture, food, and military bases were everywhere; the US was omnipotent. Credit cards were introduced in the 1960’s. (Remember the commercial for American Express? “Don’t leave home without it.”) Western corporations yearned for profit and huge profits were associated with cheap labour. Western factories were moving East to China, when China opened up in 1979, and to other countries of the East and South as well.

Wages in the US were deteriorating for the working class since the early sixties of the last century, but the US corporation has been doing great. In the 18th and 19th centuries Western corporations were moving slaves from Africa to the plantations of North America, the West Indies, and South America. In the latter half of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st Century, corporations have been moving their plantations, factories, to the slaves. 95% of Americans today belong to what I call the Precariat Class, a totally dispossessed economic class.

In 2016, Americans still don’t have tax based universal health care, no free education of superior quality, no affordable housing, no public transportation, and outright home ownership is only around 11%. No wonder Americans are angry, and this is why Donald Trump is winning. The ownership class cannot stop him in an “honest way”, so they will try to stop him either by hook or by crook. Massive demonstrations may occur in defense of Trump. Martial law may be imposed, and the presidential election may be postponed or even cancelled.

Economic conditions are no better. Real unemployment is high, anywhere from 20% to 42%. Wages are stagnating. Ninety million Americans are not working. Obesity, a side effect of the American economic system, is in epidemic mode. Sixty six percent are obese and thirty seven percent are morbidly obese. Chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, cancer are rampant. Life expectancy is going down. Basic infrastructure is collapsing. People are over medicated. Grocery stores are full of embalmed, genetically modified food ( but beautifully packaged!). All for profit, and without giving a damn about people or the environment. Just look at Flint, Michigan and their drinking water. The US, the hope of mankind, is becoming a third world country.

The world economy is no better. Much of the world is either in severe recession or depression. The Baltic Dry Index has imploded, with slight improvement lately. World consumption has collapsed, hence massive slowdown from South Korea to Germany. Japan is in perpetual depression. China is slowing down. Latin America, Africa, and South Asia are either in near or full depressions. Canada, Australia, the European Union are either in severe recession or are entering one. The Ukraine is on the verge of exploding. The Middle East is a cauldron that will enlarge. The only area of stability is Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Sanctions against Russia are great blessings in disguise. Import substitution and self reliance are engines of growth and power. Presently, Brazil and Venezuela are being destabilized from outside and inside.

In summary, unnecessary consumption is collapsing world wide. Debt in dollar terms is still growing  but at a snail’s pace. World wide trade is collapsing. Countries with an independent foreign policy such as India, Iran, China, Russia, and others are accumulating gold and shunning the dollar. This is a nightmare for the US. It is quite possible that some obscure company somewhere in the South Asian region will reject trade in dollars, but will accept gold or Chinese yuan. Panic will set in. The dollar could drop by twenty percent in overnight trade. Gold and silver would sky rocket. Trade between the US and the world would collapse. Interest rates in dollars would rise to an unbelievable level, but would not help the dollar. The US could not import anything with its currency, but only with gold or some foreign currency which was convertible to gold. The Armageddon of the dollar is coming. The ownership elite of the US will know for the first time in its history what it’s like to actually work for a living rather than living off the suffering and labor of others. My analysis is very, very correct and true but only time will reveal that.

 

*= NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization SEATO: Southeast Asia Treaty Organization

     CENTO: Central Treaty Organization

 

 

 

The velocity of money and the Baltic Dry Index.

The world economy is dying. Powerful people of the world are in denial. They think they will be able to correct the situation, but the world economy cannot be saved. The two indicators of a dying economy are the velocity of money and the Baltic Dry Index.

Let us examine the velocity of money. The simple definition is the speed with which money circulates through the economy. The more dynamic the economy, the more optimistic people feel about jobs and economic security, the more they feel relaxed and the more likely they will spend, travel, feel good about the country, the government, the people, and themselves. Presently, the velocity of money is collapsing. Whatever money ordinary people earn and have they do not want to spend. Also, many, many people have no money to spend. The situation is very dire, but one would not know by watching the “evil vision”. On evil vision, attractive women in eternal spring dresses, and men in impeccable suits with or without neckties constantly proclaim prosperity. The only people enjoying prosperity are the less than one percent of the ownership class and about five to ten percent of the overseer class to which the stars of the evil vision belong. (Evil vision is TV.) There is so much discontent in the country that it threatens the stability of the country. The economy is getting worse. Just look the stock market and the high yield bond market!

Another measure of how bad the US and world economy are is the Baltic Dry Index. Just last week it dropped below four hundred. Before the “Great Recession” of 2007-09, it was registering in the several thousands. After the so called Great Recession ended, it recovered to almost 2000. Now, after seven years of recovery it dropped to below 400, in the year of 2016. Any intelligent person, non-brain washed, knows that there was no recovery. In one of my previous posts, I stated that economic recovery in the US is impossible, because the energy entering the US economic system is decreasing, while the energy needed to maintain its internal and external operations is increasing. The Reserve Status of the dollar in the world is enabling the US to maintain its operation internally and world wide as long the rest of the world is accepting the dollar. That ability to maintain its operations is based on debt. As long as the rest of the world accepts American debt there is no problem. But that is ending and that is the problem. When the dollar is rejected it will be kaput.

The Baltic Dry Index {BDI} is indicating that world trade is collapsing. Empty ships are being anchored in ports. Oil tankers, full of crude, are anchored. There are few buyers of crude. Some experts are telling it is going to get worse. Collapsing BDI is possibly signaling world wide depression. Decreasing velocity of money is indicating that the majority of people have no money to buy even basic necessities.  Why are 94,000,000 people not in the labour force? Why are 47,000,000 people on food stamps? Why are wages for the non overseer class stagnant and decreasing? Why is the infrastructure of this nation dilapidated? Up until 2016, there was plenty of money for Wall Street. Now the stock markets and the bond markets of the world are collapsing. It could be that the world is entering the Economic Black Plague State. Only time will tell.