Category Archives: NATO

US vs Germany

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A year or so ago, I tweeted the following: Thanks to Russia, Germany is unified. But thanks to the US, Germany is still occupied. Four countries that are still occupied by the US are United Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea. They are the main pillars of the Wall of Enmity that the US has built since after the Second World War. No US military are supposedly allowed in the territory of the former East Germany, but the US Military has essentially free movement in these four nations. The island of Okinawa has a giant US military base that occupies almost half the Island. These four countries are unique, in that despite occupation, they are highly advanced and world competitors, unlike the case of the Philippines, which has been under US tutelage since the Spanish- American War of 1899.

The Wall of Enmity that I wrote about a year or so ago extends from the Baltics, Poland, the Ukraine, Romania, Turkey, the Gulf States, through the Straits of Malacca to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea.

Germany is a key nation of Europe. It is very uncomfortable with its subservient position.The new US ambassador to Germany is demanding that its’ government follow the US policy on Iran. The Germans have been angered by this. The Alternativa fur Deutschland, AfD, Chief opposition party, is demanding a more independent foreign policy, especially pertinent with respect to energy. The US is trying to prevent the construction of the NORD Stream 2 at all costs. This is about Russian gas being supplied to Germany  bypassing Ukraine; but the reasons go much deeper. This event affects whether Germany stays occupied and subservient to the US or opts for independence. Meanwhile, migration, multiculturalism supported by western,especially the US NGOs  are dividing and threatening the very character of Germany and Europe.

Germany has to choose: subservience or independence. Merkel’s future and that of the Grand Coalition are at stake. In the next election, Merkel and the Grand Coalition will lose badly. The AfD will likely win and demand drastic change. If they win they would confront the US directly. They would pursue detente with Russia, and defend its industries, especially its’ automobile industry. It would pull the EU East and pull Germany out of NATO. Pulling Germany out of NATO would be the final straw. Germany would then follow the Turkish model of confrontation with the US. The consequences would be dire. Most of the world would side with Germany. Sanctions against Germany and EU would not work. The US and the few English speaking countries of the world would face isolation.

Turkish election of June 24, 2018

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On June 24, 2018, Turkey will hold elections which will change the political structure of the country. The presidential system will replace the parliamentary one. Executive power will be dominant. The individual behind the change is president Recep Erdogan.

Erdogan has been active in Turkish politics since 1994 when he was elected mayor of Istanbul  1994-98. Since about 2000 to 2014 he was prime minister. In 2014, he was elected president for five years. This June election of 2018 is a year early, because he wants to change the political structure of the country with a strong president as head of state. He is the leader of the Justice and Development Party. He is a conservative Islamic nationalist which the Turkish people love.

Turkey is geo-strategically a very significant country. It controls the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. It is part of Europe and the Middle East. A nation of more than 80,000,000 people, about 20% are Kurds. The country is fairly large, 302,500 square miles; it encompasses all of the Anatolian Peninsula.

Turkey fought in the Korean War,1950-53, on the US side. It has been faithful and subservient to US interests. It has tried to be a member of the EU without success. Now Erdogan no longer cares about the EU. Under Erdogan for over three decades, Turkey has developed into a modern industrial state. Turkey has had an insincere policy towards Syria, with no problems with neighbours, to outright support of ISIS; it had a strategic partnership with Israel. That changed because of the Palestinians which Turkey strongly supports. Turkey still supplies almost 50% or more of Israeli fresh water needs. Until 2016, Turkey had an antagonistic relationship with Russia. It shot a Russian jet over Syria claiming it was over Turkey. The Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Istanbul in 2015. Possibility of war existed, but Russia as usual played calmly.

The coup d’etat of 2016 changed everything; it failed badly. Turkey claims that the coup was organized by religious leader Gulen who lives in the US. Turkey accused the US of being involved, which the US denies. The US refuses to release Gulen to Turkish authorities. Russia helped Erdogan during the coup. A policy of friendship developed between Russia and Turkey. Erdogan apologized to Putin for shooting down the Russian jet and the assassination of the Russian ambassador; Russian tourists and trade returned to Turkey.

Iran, Russia, and Turkey are coordinating their policy on Syria.  The policy includes no partition of Syria and that Assad’s fate is to be decided by Syrian people. This is anathema to the US and Israel. The US is in direct confrontation with Turkey over Kurdish areas of Syria. Turkey will not allow a Kurdish enclave in N.E. Syria. The US wants an independent Kurdistan in Syria which would be allied with Israel. Turkey is vehemently opposed to any Kurdish state. Syria, Iran, and Iraq are also opposed to a possible Kurdish state. Erdogan is opposed to any idea of a Kurdish state.

June 24, 2018 elections are absolutely crucial for Turkey and the West. It seems Turkey is orienting itself to Russia and Eurasia. Turkey is buying the Russian S-400. The US threatens sanctions on Turkey and may not sell Turkey its F-35; Turkey doesn’t care. If Erdogan gets strong support in this election it will indicate that the Turkish people support his policies. Turkey will embrace Russia,  and NATO will become irrelevant as two major members clash.

The future relationship between Turkey and the US will be very interesting; it will affect the entire world. Watch the Turkish elections this coming Sunday, June 24, 2018.

Turkey vs the US

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In one of my previous posts, I stated that Turkey was one of the most geostrategic pivots in the world. That is true. This geostrategic pivot gives Turkey immense power and advantages vis a vis any power outside the region of the Balkans, Bosporus, Black Sea, and the Middle East.
In the year 2018, it is asserting its power to impose its will on the Kurdish enclave of North Syria to the Iraqi border; this means Turkish confrontation with the US.

Turkey is totally opposed to the US policy in Syria. The US wants to partition Syria, not because it is a threat to the US, which it is not, but because it would enable Israel to expand into both Lebanon and Syria. It would thereby obtain the waters of Lebanon.

Turkey considers the US presence in Syria and Iraq a threat to Turkish security and independence. Turkey has a large Kurdish population, up to 30,000,000 people in its South East Region. There are about 3,000,000 in Syria and Iraq respectively; approximately 3,000,000 in Iran. ( Actually, Kurds are scattered all over the Middle East. ) Kemal Ataturk was a Kurd. He defeated the British at the Battle of Gallipoli in 1915, in the 1st World War. Churchill was eager to conquer Constantinople for the British, and not to help the Russians as claimed by the British. Kemal Ataturk developed very close relations between Turkey and the new country of the USSR.

A large Kurdish State in the Fertile Crescent would mean the end of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. A Kurdish state allied to Israel would dominate the Middle East. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon want to prevent this scenario; most of the Islamic world is against such a scheme.

What now? Turkey means business. It is prepared to face the US in Syria, possibly in Iraq as well. Confrontation is inevitable. It depends on what scale, but it will be on big scale. Let us analyze.

The US will not leave Syria. It will leave only if forced. Turkey will not back off. All of Turkey is upset with the US. Both countries are members of NATO, but the US runs NATO. What the US says goes. That has been the internal relationship of the organization since its inception in 1949. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, a faithful US ally in the Korean War,1950-53. Since a failed coup d’état of July 15, 2016, the US/Turkish relationship has been very strained. Turkey has abandoned a policy of subservience to the US and chosen a policy of national interest and independence. National interests of Turkey are in direct conflict with US strategy. The policy of restraints on Turkey that the US is pursuing only irritates Turkey even more.

Before a complete rupture occurs, the US will try another coup d’état. If it succeeds, Turkey will go back to the NATO stable, and the US will again have a subservient Turkey and will be able to create Kurdistan in Syria. However, the coup may not succeed.

What is evident in this struggle is that Turkey is not afraid. Turkey is an advanced economy. It has powerful armed forces. Turkey may be in possession of nuclear weapons which gives it a nuclear back bone to face any opponent, including the US. The West was hoping to start a Russo-Turkish war after the Turks shot down a Russian jet in Syria on November 24, 2015; it did not succeed.

If Turkey goes all the way to conquer Syrian Kurdish region, it will inevitably come in conflict with the US special forces advising the Kurds. If the US sustains casualties, the US will respond and open conflict will occur. The Turks will not back off. Neither will the US. The conflict will enlarge. If no armistice is reached, both sides will pour troops into the conflict. NATO will be in a dilemma. Many NATO members would refuse to join the US vs. Turkey conflagration; NATO would break. The Islamic World would side with Turkey, and the Third World War could break out.

Short of a general nuclear war between the US and Russia, the US-Turkish War would severely damage the world’s economy, let alone cause massive environmental and structural damage to the world. The consequences would be unpredictable; we will see

Status of the Wall of Enmity

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To maintain its world power, the US has built a Wall of Enmity between the East and the West. With the fall of the USSR, the Wall was not abandoned but extended into the Russian territories of the former Soviet Union. The Baltic Republics are firm members of the Wall, despite the fact that they are in firm super depression because of severe Russophobia. Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, Slovakia, and the new republics of former Yugoslavia: Croatia, Slovenia, Monte Negro. Serbia, so far, have refused to join NATO. Promises not to expand NATO were made by the US to Russia. Apparently, promises were broken. In Europe, NATO is shaking but not breaking down;  it is the Key Stone of the Wall of Enmity.

In the Middle East, the Wall of Enmity is breaking down. Turkey, a key NATO member, is confronting the US on all fronts: Jerusalem, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Turkey has not forgotten the failed coup attempt of July, 2016. Turkey is suspicious of the US. The US is treading gently because Turkey is the main fresh water supplier to Israel. The US does not want to lose Turkey as it lost Iran.

In South Asia, Pakistan is definitely drifting away from the Wall of Enmity. Trade with its key partner, China, is in Yuan. Intelligence is no longer shared with the US and it may block US access to Afghanistan. The US is trying to woo India but India is very fickle; it is not likely that India would join the Wall of Enmity.

In South East Asia and Oceania, only distant Australia, New Zealand, and some island states of Oceania are firm members of the Wall of Enmity. All littoral states of South East Asia do not want to antagonize China.

The North East Asia Wall of Enmity is pivotal to US power in Asia and the Far East. Under no circumstances is the US willing to lose it. The only way to maintain its position in North East Asia is by stoking tensions with North Korea. South Korea under President Moon is trying to eliminate confrontations with North Korea. The Winter Olympic Games are possibly a blessing in disguise. No war during the Olympic Games was an ancient Greek tradition. Talks between the Koreas that will exclude the US may lead to something significant which the US will not like. Bluntly speaking, South Korea may refuse to be subservient to the US.

If South Korea refuses to be subservient to the US, will Japan be far behind? Not likely.

 

Turkey, the Geo-Strategic Pivot of History

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To paraphrase Napoleon: “Geography is destiny; control Constantinople, control the world.” This was true in the time of Napoleon, and it is even more true today.

Turkey was one of the most faithful allies of the US. It helped the US in the Korean War, 1950-53. A NATO member since 1950. To whatever the US wanted, Turkey said yes. Turkish labour helped rebuild post war West Germany. But Turkey was taken for granted by the West, essentially a colonial entity in possession of the most geo-strategic real estate in the world…

How things change. Today, the US and Turkey are in confrontation mode. Until July 15, 2016, Turkey embraced the US- Israeli view of Syria; Assad must go, because Assad would not buckle. There was a confrontation with Russia. A Russian plane was shot over Syria by a Turkish jet. A Russian ambassador was assassinated in Turkey. Trade sanctions were imposed on Turkey, and Russian tourists boycotted it. The US was hoping for an irrevocable confrontation between Russia and Turkey. A coup d’état against Erdogan, if successful, would make this confrontation with Russia permanent. This confrontation would re-enforce the Wall of Enmity which the US is building from the Baltic, the Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, India, yes India through the Straits of Malacca to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. If the coup d’etat had been successful, Russia would have been eliminated from Middle East involvement.

But the coup did not succeed, possibly with Russian help. Erdogan apologized to Putin, and relations normalized. Slowly, rapprochement between Turkey and Russia became friendly. And then suddenly, three countries: Iran, Turkey, and Russia synchronized their Middle East policy especially in regards to Syria and Lebanon and Hezbollah. So, now, instead of Russian disarray, one has US-Israeli-Saudi disarray.

How will things play out? World events cannot be taken in isolation. The Wall of Enmity has been breached in two places: the Ukraine and Turkey. The Wall of Enmity in North East Asia is stable, because the tension is high.

The situation in the Ukraine is different because of the German situation. Germany is entering a period of uncertainty. Whoever and under what circumstances the next German government is formed, the German people will demand independence, denuclearization, and the end of US military occupation. The Germans are increasingly yearning for an independent foreign policy. The US will try to prevent a German exodus by increasing tensions and the chances of war in the Ukraine and blaming Russia as the aggressor.

Turkey is the key geostrategic pivot of History. The Turks are a proud, nationalistic people. Under Erdogan, they have had the first truly independent foreign policy since the time of Kemal Ataturk. They will not buckle to Western pressure. They do not care for the EU. By being independent and moving closer to Eurasia, Turkey will help reduce or even eliminate Western influence in the Middle East. Turkey will withdraw from NATO very slowly and the US will not push. If Turkey withdraws, NATO unravels. That is the one thing the US does not want.

Another attempt at a coup d’état cannot be excluded.

 

 

 

 

Very Short Observations IV

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The knowledge is intentionally withheld that the EU nations use dollars, not euros, in trade among themselves, as well as with other nations. It is amazing and true. So, the dollar is not only the petro-dollar, but the official currency of international trade. The most important world trade is in oil, and until now, it has been traded in dollars. Most international debt is also denominated in dollars. The dollar is used as the chief instrument of enforcing sanctions against nations who do not follow US policy. The dollar is the Thunder Bolt of Zeus that I mentioned in my earlier posts from 2015-16.

But the exceptionality of this currency which makes the US the exceptional nation may be coming to an end. China will be trading oil in the yuan, convertible to gold. Oil nations will be able to sell their oil for the yuan on the Shanghai Exchange, avoiding dollars. The yuan will be freely exchangeable for gold. Many oil nations will flock to the “Petro-Yuan”. This new development is of great geo-economic significance. Venezuela, for instance, would be able to sell its heavy crude from Lake Maracaibo for yuan. How the US will react to this challenge remains to be revealed. Will the US react aggressively to China?

A commodity that is necessary for all life on Earth is water. Mother Nature provides us water free of charge. Fortunate are those nations or people who have an abundance of it. Those nations who feel they are powerful enough are willing to go to war to get it. The countries of the Mediterranean basin that have an abundance of water are the new republics of the former Yugoslavia. Other countries are Turkey, Lebanon, and possibly Syria because of the two rivers that flow through North East Syria from Turkey: the Euphrates and the Tigris, which touches Syria as it leaves Turkey and enters Iraq.

Countries that are water poor: Libya and Israel. Libya was intentionally destroyed in 2011, killing and sodomizing its leader, Gaddafi, in order to plunder its resources, especially its oil. Gaddafi wanted a gold dinar for all of Africa. Israel, a water-poor yet highly advanced country, whose water needs are increasing daily, needs a source of free water. Presently, Israel imports about 50% of its fresh water from Turkey. If a confrontation develops between Israel and Turkey, in the future, Turkey could shut off its water exports to Israel. De-salination is an inadequate substitute; it is also very expensive.

And so Lebanon beckons. To get the waters of Lebanon, war is inevitable. Hezbollah, whether one likes it or not, is the guardian of Lebanese independence vis a vis Israel, so war is inevitable. Israel experienced Hezbollah in 2006 war. Hezbollah is no joke.

Saudi Arabia is not a country in the normal sense of the word, because it is owned by 50,000 to 100,000 royals who take most of its oil wealth for their own personal use. But the Saudis are now in trouble. They’re losing their war in Yemen. Oil revenues are down. A confrontation with Iran looms in the distance. Internal dissension exists. The situation in the Saudi Arabia is precarious. They have pushed themselves into a Zugzwang situation. An alliance with Israel and the dismissal of the Lebanese prime minister are possibly related. The official dogma: Hezbollah and Iran have become mortal enemies of Israel and the Saudis. Big war is inevitable for water, oil, and hegemony of the Middle East and the world. The US and NATO will side with the Saudis and Israel, unconditionally; most of the rest of the world will side with the Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Iran. Will this war turn nuclear? Possibly!

The Ukraine cannot be ignored; it is on the verge of collapse. The Ukraine’s internal and external policies are totally absurd. For example, certain nationalists want to break diplomatic relations with Russia. Also, they are buying expensive  anthracite hard coal from the US rather than cheaper and better quality coal from Russia or Donbass for its power plants; Ukrainians will be freezing this winter! Also they are trying to mpose the Ukrainian language on minorities such as Hungarians and Russians. Kiev will gamble war in order to save itself; it will not work.

Contrary to Main Stream Media propaganda, the US economy is not doing well. Both, debt and stocks are precariously high. The EU not much better; just ask the Greeks.

Truly, a very precarious time; very unique in history!

Short Observations II

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The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

Syrian War II

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The ISIS stage of the Syrian war is changing; the US approach is changing. In addition to supporting ISIS it has also thrown its support behind the Kurds of Syria and Iraq. The plan to partition Syria and Lebanon has not changed. The occult plan to remove Assad and Partition Syria should have been accomplished by the end of 2014 but plans did not pan out; even the poison gas trick did not work.

The plan to remove Assad and to implement “Partition Syria” is still the goal, except it now has a sense of urgency. Assad is still in power and the Syrian Army is getting stronger. Assad is resilient and tough like his father Hafez was. Hafez would not buckle under US pressure and recognize the State of Israel, as did Egypt under Anvar Al Sadat and Jordan in the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter. Lebanon would also not recognize Israel. By recognizing Israel, Anwar Al Sadat paid with his life. He was assassinated in 1979.

Israel thought it could partition Lebanon by itself, and get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River. Israel, like any other state, is not viable without an abundance of fresh water, and their attempt did not succeed. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 2006 failed. Hesbollah gave Israel a very bloody nose. Israel sustained heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. The US and Israel decided to dismember Syria by proxy and so the Islamic State, ISIS, was created. The Syrian war started in earnest in 2011, the year that Gaddafi of Libya was impaled and killed. Remember what Hillary said: “We came, we saw, and he died. Ha! Ha !” Sick mind. Putting a demented twist on Caesar’s immortal words: Vene, Vidi, Vici.

By 2013, they blamed Assad for a chemical attack; it didn’t work. By 2014, the slogan was: Assad must go. Assad did not go. Russian support of Syria increased as did Iranian and that of Hesbollah of Lebanon. With their help, Assad was able to liberate the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, as well as Aleppo. Israel would bomb the Syrian Army position in support of ISIS. Even during so called peace time, prior to 2011, Israeli jets would regularly fly over Damascus and the summer residence of the President of Syria; Syria would not respond.

The situation today is very critical. The US has realized that the only way to partition Syria is to establish an independent Kurdistan out of North East Syria and North East Iraq. The US has forces in Iraq not to help Iraq fight ISIS but to control it and to delay its victory over ISIS. Independent Iraq would help Assad and the US wants to prevent that; the Iraqis know that, Especially Muqtada al Sader and the Shias. The Syrian war is heating up. Turkey will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Severe estrangement is developing between US and Turkey and Turkey will probably leave NATO and abandon the US.

The US shot down a Syrian jet over Syria, an independent state and member of UN. In all honesty, this is a violation of International law. Syria is not an enemy of the US, nor has Syria asked for US help. Also, Syria is not a threat to US security. The actions of the US also violates the morals and ethics of the Universe. There is no justification for such actions except raw power. If the US persists in such actions, there will be a reaction. Remember the Third Law of Motion: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia will strengthen Syrian air defenses and US planes and drones will start falling from the sky a la Vietnam War. It is possible that Karma is based on the Third Law of Motion. Iran will also increase its help to Syria.

If the Kurds proclaim their independence with US help, Turkey will enter the fray on the side of Syria. If that happens, the US will lose. Would the US bomb Turkey? Possibly, but not likely. However, again, anything is possible.

Increased Iranian help, let us say, 200,000 Iranian Troops or Irano-Turkish combination of 300,000 troops would arouse US-Israeli-British ire and a huge Middle East War would begin. The war would engulf Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Yemen. The Saudi dynasty and Jordanian monarchy would collapse. The petro dollar would be finished. Oil prices would skyrocket. The EU and the US would enter into super depression. The rest of the world would  not be any better. However, countries connected by land from the Pacific- Indian Ocean to the Atlantic would start to coalesce. Afro-Eurasia would start coalescing. The US and the UK would be excluded.

The plan of the US is partition of Syria via Kurdistan which would become an ally of Israel, supplying it with precious fresh water from the Euphrates as well as oil. The second reason is the humiliating defeat of Russia and its’ eviction from the Middle East. The third reason is the destruction and conquest of Iran, the enemy of Israel and Saudis. By controlling Iran, the US would be able to control the Persian Gulf. It also would enable the US to control Central Asia. Just look the geography of the area.  Extra big war is in the works in the Middle East which may go nuclear.

Syria and the Third World War

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Assad presently has the upper hand in the Syrian War. It appears that ISIS maybe on the run. The US still has plans to topple Assad and partition Syria. The US is looking for options though, and has decided to play the Kurdish card in North East Syria along the Euphrates River. As expected, the Turks are very upset.

The US is in Zugzwang with respect to Syria. The US was hoping that so called ‘ Moderate Terrorists’ would topple Assad. It did not work. The US is still using ISIS covertly and Israel is supporting them occultly. That is not enough. Syria and Assad are getting stronger and stronger daily.

So, what to do? The US would like to entice NATO to overthrow Assad. A unified NATO attack via Turkey or Jordan or from both areas would  possibly be a winning move. An attack, of let us say, 200,000 NATO troops under US command would do the job. Possibly? The “official reason” for an invasion would be to fight ISIS; the real reason would be to partition Syria and destroy Assad.

Would Syria and its allies buckle under NATO pressure?  Not likely, but war would widen. Turkey would leave NATO and not participate against Syria. Israel would enter the fray. Palestinians would rise up. Egypt would militarize the Sinai. The Saudi dynasty, Jordanian monarchy, and Gulf states would be overthrown; the people of these monarchies would side with Syria.

The price of oil would skyrocket. The dollar would be rejected as a payment. Western economies would collapse. The US would be caught in Zugzwang. Would the US go nuclear, possibly? Is the Third World War inevitable?

 

Large Middle East War is inevitable

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There are different wars going on in the Middle East, all of them more or less going on at the same time. The purpose of the war in Syria is to partition it. The facade reason is that the “killer dictator” Assad must go. If Syria is partitioned into a Kurdish North East where the Euphrates flows, then water could be pumped to water-starved Israel by land and by sea. ISIS has been losing in Syria, although the final word has yet to be spoken. Whoever started ISIS is an enigma. Selling oil and financial transactions via SWIFT, (the Society for World-wide International Financial Transactions controlled by Federal Reserve Bank of New York), are not impeded by the US. Turkey is in Syria to prevent the creation of a Kurdish State, which would of course be a threat to its’ existence. Turkey initially supported ISIS because it felt it could occupy Syria’s Kurdish region but Erdogan switched after the coup d’état.

Turkey, despite being a NATO member, is being destabilized. South East Turkey, predominantly Kurdish, would be split to join the Kurdish areas of Syria, Iraq, and Iran into a greater Kurdistan which would then be friendly to Israel. Israel would then have an abundance of cheap water, oil, and gas. Turkey knows this. It is switching to Assad’s Syria, Iran, and Russia. A quiet alliance is forming between Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. The “One Belt, One Road” policy of China will go through Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, via the Balkans into Europe. The US is also quietly organizing an Arab anti-Iran alliance that is friendly to Israel,  composed of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia.

The partitioning of Iraq was in the cards of the West: the Sunni West around Ramadi, the Shia south from Baghdad to Basra, and the Kurdish north east around Kirkuk; possibly Mosul as well.

Lebanon would also be destroyed and Israel would get the water of the Litani River. So far, Israel has not been successful.

The Yemeni-Saudi war is not going too well. The Houthis are holding their own against the Saudis. It is quite likely that the Yemeni war will lead to a Saudi demise.

For all the problems in the Middle East, the US and Israel are blaming Iran as the major culprit. Because of Iranian missile testing, (which is not a violation of Nuclear Agreement that US has signed), the US and Israel are threatening Iran.

If the US and Israel attack Iran, Iran will respond by closing the Persian Gulf. the price of oil would go sky high. There would be a shortage of oil world wide. Iran would hit Israel with missiles. If Israel goes nuclear, Iran would try to destroy the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev desert. If Israel persisted with nuclear attack, Pakistan would lend Iran several nuclear bombs to hit Israel in return and a world wide chain reaction would follow resulting in a total collapse of many regions of the world.

Let us hope this does not happen. Only time will tell.