Category Archives: three pillars of US power

Short Observations II

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The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

Is the US facing the same problems as Third Century Rome?

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The world, but particularly the US, is entering a period of great uncertainty, as did Rome in the third century AD. There were external threats and internal instability. Inflation was destroying the internal fabric. The coinage was diluted of its precious metals, silver and gold. People lost faith in its institutions, its army and its emperors. Through such inflation, the people were getting poorer. The longevity of its emperors was very short after the assassination of the Emperor Alexander Severus in 235 AD  The Empire fragmented and was in danger of collapsing. Two external threats were ever present: the Tribes of Northern and Eastern Europe were pressing on the Empire and in the East, there were Persian threats. Three emperors lost wars with Persia, and one, Emperor Valerian, was even captured by the Persians in 260 AD through a ruse.

The 42nd Emperor Claudius Gothicus, (268-270), stabilized the frontiers by defeating the Alemani and the Goths, but unfortunately, died of some kind of infection.  The 51st Emperor Deocletian, (284-305), further strengthened the Empire by reducing inflation, further stabilizing the frontiers, and introducing tetrarchy to government. Tetrarchy is four person rule.  Deoclitian split the administration into a Western Empire centered in Rome, and an Eastern Empire centered in the future city of Constantinople to be founded by Emperor Constantine the Great in 330 AD. When the Western Empire fell in 476 AD, the Eastern Empire or Byzantine Empire lasted for almost one thousand years until Contantinople fell to the Turks in 1453.

Is the US in a similar situation? Possibly?  The US has been in decline since President Nixon defaulted on the gold obligation of 35 dollars for one ounce of gold. Nixon proclaimed it would be temporary, but almost 50 years later is still going. As a result inflation became rampant, Congress became generous and passed the law that allowed Americans to own gold again. President Roosevelt and Congress banned ownership of gold except in jewelry in 1933.

Economic conditions were deteriorating slowly. Inflation in the seventies, Reaganomics in the eighties, Clintonomics in the nineties, subprime mortgages and the tech bubble in the first decade of the new millennium and a severe bust in 2007-09 that nearly collapsed the entire system. Throughout this period, living standards for Americans were going down. The main culprits were debt, public and private, quality job losses, inflation, lack of affordable universal health care, expensive education, and foreign military interventions.

As I mentioned in my previous posts, the three pillars of paper, all based on debt, are keeping this system afloat, but just barely, and they are the dollar, the stock market, and the bond market. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are keeping the system going by shunting new money into stocks and bonds creating conditions for a financial shock that is becoming inevitable. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing are propping up the system, but not curing it; it cannot be cured.

One could call the US economy a “mirage” because there has been no actual growth since the late 1960’s. The living standards of the people have been going down and down, but the lies and deceptions have been going up. One does not know whom to believe. In socio-economic terms, three economic classes have developed in the US: the owner class of 1%, the overseer class of 4-5%, and the Precariat class of around 95%. The Precariat Class is composed of all ethnic groups, religions, and races, but it is kept divided by the Ownership Class for its own interests. The Precariat is on the whole totally dispossessed, and they live from pay cheque to pay cheque, with the loan sharking firms eating them in between.

The present recovery after the almost system collapse 0f 2007-8, has been nothing but “a mirage”, a statistical “recovery” propped by a series of quantitative easings and zero interest rates. The ownership class and the overseer class are doing extremely well, but the precariat class is barely surviving.

In foreign policy, the US, a hegemonic power, has become a reactionary force in order to maintain its world wide empire based on dollar indebtedness and exploitation of the rest of the world. Through its policy in the Middle East, it has lost Iran and now may lose Turkey, two large countries dominating the key strategic areas of the Afro-Eurasia. It is true, the US has gained  eastern Europe through the European Union and NATO, but Europe itself has become unstable.

In the Middle East, some claim that the US and Israel have created ISIS and Al-Qaeda  to destroy Syria and Iraq in order to get to Iran, and take total control of the Middle East and its natural resources. If Turkey switches to Eurasia, and a compromise is reached between Syria and Turkey, the US will lose the Middle East. The next shoe to drop will be Saudi Arabia because of its disastrous war in Yemen, as well as internal dissension.

Never before in its history has the US faced such complex problems as a dying economy  reflected in dying cities, dilapidated infrastructure, poor but costly education and health care; city violence could be a precursor to a general revolt.

The world is waiting with bated breath the results of the US presidential elections, The precariat class is flocking to Mr. Trump for salvation and the ownership class is in a panic. How the elections will turn out nobody knows, but if there is a financial collapse Trump would win massively. In that case, it is quite likely that martial law would be proclaimed and the elections postponed. Only time will tell.

The Precariat Class

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In my previous posts I stated that the economic system of the US is based on three pillars of paper, and all three are based on debt. The three pillars of paper are the dollar, the bond and the stock market. If one falters, all three will collapse, and the economic system which is so blindly venerated will collapse. The capitalist system of the West has become totally parasitic, and it no longer can  grow  at the rate that is needed to sustain itself. The debt or usury rate has to grow. Every year the growth of debt has to be much bigger than the previous year. If debt grows but not as fast as in previous years crisis develops which may lead the system into total collapse. This is happening right now.

The Western economic system since 1980 has had no real growth. Immense debt growth has been used to claim that there was real growth. Reaganomics was the last “hurrah.” The middle class has collapsed because the good jobs have disappeared. Now we have three economic classes in the US: the ownership class {one percent], the overseer class {five percent}, the Precariat class {ninety four percent}. Precariat means uncertain in Latin. Ninety four percent of Americans live in great uncertainty, hence, the Precariat Class.  The country is decaying: infrastructure, education, health, housing. The Precariat class senses that there is something profoundly wrong with the country, and that it will get worse. No recovery but great upheaval is awaiting the country.

The velocity of money and the Baltic Dry Index.

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The world economy is dying. Powerful people of the world are in denial. They think they will be able to correct the situation, but the world economy cannot be saved. The two indicators of a dying economy are the velocity of money and the Baltic Dry Index.

Let us examine the velocity of money. The simple definition is the speed with which money circulates through the economy. The more dynamic the economy, the more optimistic people feel about jobs and economic security, the more they feel relaxed and the more likely they will spend, travel, feel good about the country, the government, the people, and themselves. Presently, the velocity of money is collapsing. Whatever money ordinary people earn and have they do not want to spend. Also, many, many people have no money to spend. The situation is very dire, but one would not know by watching the “evil vision”. On evil vision, attractive women in eternal spring dresses, and men in impeccable suits with or without neckties constantly proclaim prosperity. The only people enjoying prosperity are the less than one percent of the ownership class and about five to ten percent of the overseer class to which the stars of the evil vision belong. (Evil vision is TV.) There is so much discontent in the country that it threatens the stability of the country. The economy is getting worse. Just look the stock market and the high yield bond market!

Another measure of how bad the US and world economy are is the Baltic Dry Index. Just last week it dropped below four hundred. Before the “Great Recession” of 2007-09, it was registering in the several thousands. After the so called Great Recession ended, it recovered to almost 2000. Now, after seven years of recovery it dropped to below 400, in the year of 2016. Any intelligent person, non-brain washed, knows that there was no recovery. In one of my previous posts, I stated that economic recovery in the US is impossible, because the energy entering the US economic system is decreasing, while the energy needed to maintain its internal and external operations is increasing. The Reserve Status of the dollar in the world is enabling the US to maintain its operation internally and world wide as long the rest of the world is accepting the dollar. That ability to maintain its operations is based on debt. As long as the rest of the world accepts American debt there is no problem. But that is ending and that is the problem. When the dollar is rejected it will be kaput.

The Baltic Dry Index {BDI} is indicating that world trade is collapsing. Empty ships are being anchored in ports. Oil tankers, full of crude, are anchored. There are few buyers of crude. Some experts are telling it is going to get worse. Collapsing BDI is possibly signaling world wide depression. Decreasing velocity of money is indicating that the majority of people have no money to buy even basic necessities.  Why are 94,000,000 people not in the labour force? Why are 47,000,000 people on food stamps? Why are wages for the non overseer class stagnant and decreasing? Why is the infrastructure of this nation dilapidated? Up until 2016, there was plenty of money for Wall Street. Now the stock markets and the bond markets of the world are collapsing. It could be that the world is entering the Economic Black Plague State. Only time will tell.

 

Quo Vadis, 2016?

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2016 may turn out to be a very significant year. Many thought that 2015 would be the year of the stock market crash, but this didn’t happen. Many more negatives than positives occurred in 2015 though. Stock indecis reached new highs in the first half of the year, and now at the end of the year are in correction mode. It is not likely that they will crash in the last few days of trading remaining, although they could, since nobody expects it.

On the world scene, the West and Turkey were exposed as chief supporters of ISIS, in addition to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. The Paris and San Bernardino tragedies should not have been a surprise. The Russian plane disaster in Egypt was a surprise but the Western press did not moan about it. The Beirut bombing by ISIS did not get much coverage. The Turkish destruction of a Russian bomber over Syria was not really condemned by the West. The hypocrisy of the West was in full bloom in the Ukraine, the Middle East, South East Asia and other places in the world.

Also in 2015, precious metals, oil, and other commodities collapsed. The dollar was strong and Third World economies were in a severe depression. Canada, Australia, and some European states were entering a depression, but Russia just got stronger. China was trying to stabilize its economy. The Yuan became an International Reserve Currency member, and even though only as a junior partner, this is just the beginning.

What will 2016 bring? It will be much more exciting than 2015. It could be the Year of Super Black Swans. The most important event that will most likely take place is the American presidential election in November. There is a lot of anger and discontent in this country that the mainstream media does not show but which will fully manifest itself this Election Year. There is only one candidate that stands out, and that is Donald Trump. He is politically “incorrect” and people love it. All other candidates, Republican and Democratic, are nothing more than cookie cutter “apparachicks”. Powerful people in the country want to resuscitate Senator Ted Cruz, but they will not succeed; Donald Trump, on the Republican side is unstoppable and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

The economy will play a key role in these elections. In an earlier post I stated that the present US economy is based on three pillars of paper: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and all three are supported by debt. This situation cannot be sustained. The presidential election and the economy may turn out to be very ugly and a super bad Black Swan may manifest itself.

There is a war going on between Russia and the US, whether people realize this or not. The US wants to destroy Russia, leave it fragmented, and plundered. The war in the Ukraine may start any moment. The Kiev regime days are numbered. It will lash out and lose. History is on Novorossia’s side. When war starts, the Ukrainian Army will desert. Only Western mercenaries and jihadis will fight on the Kiev Junta side. The Ukrainian People will rebel and chase the Junta out of Kiev. A super Black Swan may develop in the Ukraine.

A super, super bad Black Swan may develop in the Middle East. It is sad that the West, Israel, and Turkey are supporting ISIS. There is a danger of an Israeli- Hesballah war. Hesballah is heavily engaged in operations against ISIS in Syria, so Israel may take the opportunity to attack Hesballah and get the waters of the Litani River. Israel desperately needs water. Hesballah may not be a pushover. Also, Palestanians will join in the fight against Israel. ISIS might lose the war in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has invaded Northern Iraq around Mosul. The Kurds in Turkey are rising up. Saudi Arabia is not doing well in Yemen. The US, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia may lose because they are on wrong side of History. Nuclear weapons  may be used. A super bad Black swan may develop.

The European Union is in deep crisis; it has no independent foreign policy  Economically, many of its’ countries are in a deep depression.The Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria are in a depression. France, Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are no better. Germany and Scandinavia are also suffering. The Russian sanctions have boomeranged. A super Black Swan here is not likely in 2016. A shifting of Europe from the North Atlantic to Russia is likely though, and migration will be a big problem.

Africa is waking up and wants to control its natural resources. It is shifting East. A super bad Black Swan here is not likely. Latin America is somewhat less stable. The governments of Venezuela, Brasil, and other Latin American republics will be under attack but will survive. The collapse of commodity prices and dollar debt will be a big problem for Africa and Latin America. The shift to the East will continue in this coming year.

The Indian Subcontinent will be fairly stable. The Taliban will gain strength and possibly gain power. The TAPI pipeline is being built from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to India. The Taliban will not oppose it. Iran is developing a very strong strategic partnership with Russia. This Iran-Russia partnership is one of the most natural partnerships to develop in the world. India is developing a strong relationship with Russia and Iran as well. This will continue in 2016. Putin  made a visit to Iran this year, and Prime Minister Modi of India visited Russia this week confirming the desire for this relationship.

China is developing a strong relationship with Russia. China and Russia realize they have to stick together or they will hang separately. South East Asia, despite the TPP, will move closer to China. It will develop Modus Vivendi with China. Its prosperity depends on close co-operation with China. China is the magnet that is pulling the world away from the US. A confrontation in the South China Sea is just one example. But the chances of a Black Swan in South East Asia is not very likely in 2016.

In Summary, 2016 will see increased confrontation between Russia and the US. The dollar will be under attack and gold will rise. Events occurring this year in the US will confirm that the US is in pre-revolutionary state. If powerful individuals try to eliminate Donald Trump, people will rebel. If one of the three paper pillars of the economy cracks, the whole system will collapse. The chances of nuclear war will increase. 2016 will be the beginning of the end of tall buildings, the most wasteful symbols of the system based on waste, arrogance, and greed. People will be returning to simpler things, a respect for natural things, like respect for Mother Earth. It is the only home we’ve got. Happy New Year!

 

The North Atlantic Concept is Dying.

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In many ways, the present world situation was created in the 1930’s. The Soviet Union was considered the main threat to Western control of the world. The Soviet Union supported anti-colonial struggles throughout the Colonial World, which was controlled by Western European States and the US. Hitler was appointed Chancellor of Germany by President von Hindenburg on January 31,1933. The Nazis were the largest party in Germany. Every leader in the West knew who Adolf Hitler was. German-American and British-German friendship societies were formed glorifying German-Nordic race and culture. France and other Latin Countries of Europe were not included, even though they were the main pillars of European and Western Civilization. One cannot imagine Europe without its Greco-Roman foundation. All the sophisticated aspects of the English language are Latino-French.

Overnight, Germany became the dominant European power under Hitler. France, on the other hand, was not as influential and demanding as Germany; it had lost élan, vital in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71. Germany became unified under the leadership of Otto von Bismarck, the Iron Chancellor. France was easily defeated, and the Emperor, Napoleon III, was captured at Sedan in northeast France. France with its Allies was victorious in the First World War but the war was highly exhausting and destructive. In the interim period between the world wars, France had weak governments of short duration. Britain was also weak, but enjoyed a special relationship with the US. France, despite being the longest running ally of the US, did not have this special relationship…

The USSR was isolated. Despite its efforts to form an Anti-Hitler coalition, Russia had been spurned. The only ally remaining to it was Mongolia. The USSR and Mongolia defeated the Empire of Japan in the Battle of Khalkhyn Gol, Mongolia in 1939. Europe was sliding towards war. The only western European leader who could have prevented the Second World War would have been General Charles de Gaulle. Had he been the president of France during the 1930’s, he would have formed a military alliance with Russia. Germany, under Hitler, then would have been contained. De Gaulle would also have been able to restore the French elan.

In the 1930’s Hitler was on the march. All his foreign demands had been met and it was Anschluss with Austria in the spring of 1938 and then the takeover of Czecho-Slovakia in the Autumn 1938, via Munich Agreement. The USSR wanted to defend the  Czech interests but was not invited to attend Munich. The secret British and American idea was to entice Hitler to attack Russia, and establish Lebensraum {Living space}, for Germany in the East, which had been Hitler’s goal from the very beginning. The wheels of war were set into motion secretly by the West. When the Soviet-German Non Aggression Pact was signed in August,1939, the West was indignant. Russia, how dare you ! Only the West is allowed such games. The invasion of Russia was then postponed, but not for long…

When Hitler attacked Poland on September 1, 1939, Britain and France declared war on Germany with reluctance. The “Phony War” followed on the Western Front. Britain and France were more interested in helping Finland in the Soviet-Finnish War than fighting Germany. After the French defeat and the British graceful exit from Dunkirk, Hitler was ready to attack Russia on June 22, 1941. The Western press gloated. Germany would win in about six to sixteen weeks. There would be tripartite control of the world, the British Empire, Germany, and the US. Germany would control the USSR land mass, Britain and the US would control the rest of the world. The US and Britain gave Germany about three years to defeat the USSR, but it never happened. By 1944, it was apparent that Germany would lose the war in the East,  and the Western Allies panicked. The Second Front was organized with the Normandy invasion to share in the division of Europe. The Cold War started long before the Second World War had ended. Operation Unthinkable was suggested by Churchill, as well as other plans by the Americans to destroy the USSR. And the Cold War never ended when USSR dissolved…

The Cold War continues today in multiple forms. NATO is expanding even though it is decaying. The Montenegro elite want to join NATO. The currency war against the ruble is raging. Oil prices were decreased in an attempt to hurt Russia. Sanctions and trade embargoes are being waged. Russia and ISIL have been declared enemies of the US. This is crazy. This US wants to destroy Russia to save its failing economic system which ultimately cannot be salvaged. The boomerang of sanctions and embargoes against Russia are only hurting the European Union. The European economy is just as bad as the US’s, if not worse. The onslaught of refugees is destroying the fabric of Europe. The Russian plane and Paris tragedies are changing the very policies of Europe. Europe will drift away from the North Atlantic and embrace Afro-Eurasia. Latin America is already embracing Afro-Eurasia. The US is Introducing counter measures such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Policy, which may or may not work.

The US is in a difficult position. The world is coalescing around Russia and China, and it cannot do much about it. The US  has only known one means of control: the policy of confrontation and intimidation it has used since its very inception. The Ruling Elite of the country will not change, although some members of the Elite perceive the danger. In a previous post, I said that US finance capitalism is supported by three pillars: paper (the dollar), the stock market, and the bond market, and that all three of these are based on debt. If one falters, all three will fall and the US economy will enter a black hole, and the European Union will drift away from Canada and the USA. Only time will tell.

 

 

No economic recovery is possible,if ever.

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There is constant talk that economic recovery in the US is taking place. Bluntly stated, there is no recovery. What is taking place is economic “shunting” of electronic money created by the Federal Reserve into paper assets. The Federal Reserve calls this shunting “channeling”. They must be psychic. No channeling will save the system. The life force (or energy) is leaving the US economic system. This is evident in that 94.5 million people are not working. 47 million people are on food stamps. The infrastructure is collapsing. In other words, the Main Street is dying. It means that energy is leaving the Main Street and going to Wall Street. Medically speaking , in septic shock shunting is a very grave sign…

Channeling is a very ineffective policy. It is also brutal. It seems to imply that as Wall Street gets richer they will spend more but things don’t really operate that way: the people who have been blessed by Wall Street already spend as much as they need. Instead, the denizens of Wall Street with excess profits speculate even more. Bubbles are created in which the rich wallow, be they stocks, bonds, high end real estate, and various forms of derivatives. They serve no useful purpose. They are parasites. They extract wealth from working people and Mother Earth. How long can this go on? Not very long.

Wall Street claims that it is the center of wealth creation. False!! In the casino which Wall Street is money is lost by the majority; only the casino wins. Gambling chips are no wealth, neither are paper investments. They are very , very ephemeral like late spring snow. All wealth comes from Mother Nature using human labor and ingenuity. As Leonardo da Vinci said, “God sells everything for the price of labor”. If labor is cheap or free as in slavery, Mother Nature sells its treasures for essentially nothing. For more than five centuries Western Europe and subsequently the US harvested the wealth of the world. Now,  this harvesting or plunder is decreasing.  Not enough wealth is harvested from the rest of the world to keep the system going.

Enticing the Third World Countries into debt was another way of controlling the resources of the country. If  the leader of the country rejected the policy of indebtedness, that person was demonized and subsequently overthrown. From Mossadegh of Iran, Patrice Lumumba of the Belgian Congo, Sukarno of Indonesia, to Allende of Chile, (and many others such as Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi), attempting to control the resources of the earth has been and is a very bloody business. The natural resources of the world are the food of capitalism; human labor its’ oxygen. There is plenty of oxygen, but the amount of food is decreasing. Right now, there is a struggle going for control of the food. Developing countries want to control their own natural resources. That means saying no, no to the US and to multinational corporations. Presently, natural resources are very cheap because the demand for resources is slowing the world over. Also, Third World Countries are also slashing prices to gain dollars to service the debt which is denominated in US dollars. This is one of the reasons why the dollar is so strong at the moment. The indebted countries of the world are caught in a vice  between a strong dollar and a huge debt denominated in US currency.  The end result will be  multiple country defaults, riots, violence, and revolution. This will have boomerang effect on  the US economy. The US depends on the rest of the world. If the debt of the rest of the world slows down as it is doing already the US economy cannot grow, hence it cannot recover. The US economy depends on the exploitation of the rest of the world…

What is in store for the West? Slow decay initially, then sudden collapse. The US will be one of the last dominoes to collapse.  One of the three pillars of paper on which the US economy is based has already started to collapse, and that is the Stock Market. The month of October is crucial. The Federal Reserve and Plunge Protection Team will do everything to save the system. Hopefully, they might succeed, but, it is unlikely. When the stock market starts falling in earnest, multiple bankruptcies will occur in banks, large and small; corporations, large and small; insurance companies large and small; private pension funds, large and small; fracking and mining companies large and small; hedge funds and derivatives, large and small. Personal bankruptcies on a large scale will occur. A year or two later the bond market and the dollar will follow. Possibly, all three will collapse almost at the same time. No recovery will happen. What will happen after is anybody’s guess. Possibly chaos, a long transition, and the development of a new socially responsible system. Or, nuclear war. Only time will tell.

The collapse of the present economic structure is inevitable.

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The collapse of the present economic system is inevitable and cannot be prevented despite all the efforts of the individuals that run and benefit from the system. A system based on lies and deceptions cannot last. It cannot be sustained. As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts,the US economic system and power is based on three  pillars: paper, the dollar, the bond and stock markets; all three are based on debt denominated in US dollars.

Many people in the know  think that the weakest pillar of the three is the dollar, but that ain’t necessarily so. Remember, the dollar is essentially the official currency of the world. Most  financial transactions are done in dollars. Most of the world’s debt is held in dollars. Also,most of the drug  trade,prostitution and pornography are transacted in dollars. In other words,most economic human activity is  carried out in dollars. In addition, countries that have trade surpluses hold their reserves in dollars. De-dollarization is taking place all over the world, but the process has been slow. It may accelerate in the future, but the future has not yet arrived. The dollar is good for at least two, if not, five years. Five years in economic terms is a long time. Still, many people and countries are moving towards the exits…

US Treasuries are connected with the dollar policy. Treasury bonds are debt issued  by the US Government for its operation. The claim is made that it is as good and safe as gold. Each individual should decide for herself or himself. Foreign governments are parking their dollar reserves in US treasuries. Narco money is also parking its money in US Treasuries. Many important counties are divesting themselves of Treasuries and investing in the ultimate money, which is GOLD. The process is slow but it will accelerate in the future, but the future has not arrived.

The third pillar of paper is the stock market. The US Stock Market is Casino Royale and can close and collapse any moment. The future of the world will be decided on Wall Street. If Wall Street collapses suddenly it would be an earth shaking event, the kind that happens only once or twice in a millennium. It may also be slow process of decay. Which ever process takes hold or if a mixture of the two, it will ultimately be catastrophic. The US Government and the Federal Reserve  will try  their best but will fail, because the energy entering the economic system is decreasing and will go to its equilibrium level whose depth is unknown. It will be known in due time. The Economic System which is blindly venerated will no longer be viable. It will collapse from septic financial shock and die. Chaos and long transition will follow. Countries will fragment into smaller units. The US may face fragmentation.People living on the land will do reasonably well. The Amish will be admired. Only time will tell.

The future is very uncertain.

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The future of the world is very uncertain. Thermo-nuclear war and the life as we know it could end instantly. In a matter of hours or days, in fact. Life on earth would be close to extinction. Most people do not think in those terms,but the individuals who plan wars do. Most people are concerned about personal matters, such as family members, their own general well being, jobs, love, and their health. In the past, world events did not have such an all encompassing effect as they do now. Presently, the whole world is interconnected. So, let us speculate about our world’s problems…

Economically, tensions are building every where. Let us look at China. Every body is claiming that China is slowing down, but so what? It is natural that China should grow at its own pace. China is resilient and the Chinese people know how to suffer and take pain…

Presently South East Asia is the most dynamic region of the world. Let us list the countries located there : the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia,Thailand,Singapore, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Indonesia. Also, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Fiji Islands and the Solomon Islands are a part of this huge region. There are some disputes amongst themselves and the Chinese concerning the resources of the South China Sea, specifically, the Spratly  Islands. Without outside interference, resolutions will be peaceful. China wants peace. This is the place where the Silk Road will start. It will have two paths: one through India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey to Europe. The other route will go through Saudi Arabia over the Gulf of Aquaba to the Sinai, Egypt and into Africa. Also it could go across the Red Sea into Africa. The other major branch of the Silk Road will go through China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Russia to Europe. In other words, Africa and Eurasia will be interconnected and intertwined. There will be no place for foreign interference. Japan will have to join or be doomed. This will be a huge community of nations of Afro-Eurasia based on equality and co-operation. The Trans Pacific Partnership will not succeed. The TPP will fail...

The nations of Latin America  and the Caribbean will join in. Trade between Latin America -Carribean  and Afro-Eurasia will use the southern routes of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The US and Canada will try to prevent this inter-continental coalescence but will not succeed. They will have to join in or face isolation. Nuclear war or any major war would prevent the inter-continental coalescence.

It is precisely for this reason, that the US and its allies want to build a Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia. As I mentioned in a previous post The Wall of Enmity , this wall would run from the three Baltic states of the north-east through Poland to the Ukraine in the south-east of Europe. That is why the Ukraine is so important to the permanent division of Europe and its subservience to the US. Many politicians and political parties of Europe are aware of this and will oppose the scheme. I do believe that Ukrainians will decide their own fate and will not join the European Union which is in serious crisis. The Ukraine and Russia are one country and one people. They have a common heart and common soul. The present junta regime in Kiev is undergoing decay. Socio-economic conditions of the country are worsening by the day. More than one million refugees have been welcomed into Russia like family members and not as refugees. It will not be European nor American gas that will keep Ukrainians warm in the winter but Russian gas. Whether war is restarted or not, Ukrainians will rebel and overthrow the Junta and foreign influence. It will be a sight to behold…

One of the key ponts of change will be in Canada and the US.These two countries are intertwined culturally, linguistically, ethnically, and historically. They are entering the greatest crisis of their existence; both are in denial. I will only discuss the US, but this discussion more or less applies to Canada as well. The strongest power on the planet is the US but its power is essentially ephemeral. The US economic system does not have strong foundations. A strong foundation for the US would be if seventy percent of the population lived and cultivated the land. The population is now too big to be fully employed in services and industry. If 200 million people lived as guardians and cultivators of the land, they would be independent and not the slaves of a debt system.They would have their own marketing and credit outside the big banks. They would become the strong back bone of the country. Instead,they are wards of the state. This is the age of Finance Capitalism based on a slavery called DEBT. This is the essence of capitalism. The US power is based on three pillars of paper,the dollar,the stock and bond markets. All three are based on debt. Will they fall together or separate remains to be seen. Time will tell….

One region that must be discussed is the Middle East. It is the cauldron of cauldrons ( see my post Large Middle East cauldron is brewing around the corner…). The structure of the Middle East has been destroyed. Iraq has been destroyed. Libya has been destroyed. Syria is being destroyed now. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States will meet their destiny in Yemen and it will be very soon. Egypt has been neutralized for the time being. Turkey is on the verge of civil war. The only countries standing tall are Israel and Iran. Iran is essentially self sufficient, but Israel is not. Sanctions against Iran hurt but do not destroy it. Iran became stronger. Israel,on the other hand, depends on a lot of aid, especially from the US and Germany. Also, Israel lacks water. It covets the waters of Lebanon. War for water is inevitable. Presently,Israel imports water from Turkey. Efforts to desalinate water are underway but it’s not enough for a high tech country such as Israel. All this destabilization of Arab countries is essentially for the benefit of Israel without the necessity of overt Israeli involvement. Israel is just waiting to pounce. And Iran is watching the situation very carefully, giving aid to the Syrian government and the Huthis of Yemen. War seems inevitable. Which side will win? It will to a large extent depend on the US economic situation. Only time will tell….

(These are some of the scenarios for the next year or two.)