Category Archives: Russia

Turkey, the Geo-Strategic Pivot of History

To paraphrase Napoleon: “Geography is destiny; control Constantinople, control the world.” This was true in the time of Napoleon, and it is even more true today.

Turkey was one of the most faithful allies of the US. It helped the US in the Korean War, 1950-53. A NATO member since 1950. To whatever the US wanted, Turkey said yes. Turkish labour helped rebuild post war West Germany. But Turkey was taken for granted by the West, essentially a colonial entity in possession of the most geo-strategic real estate in the world…

How things change. Today, the US and Turkey are in confrontation mode. Until July 15, 2016, Turkey embraced the US- Israeli view of Syria; Assad must go, because Assad would not buckle. There was a confrontation with Russia. A Russian plane was shot over Syria by a Turkish jet. A Russian ambassador was assassinated in Turkey. Trade sanctions were imposed on Turkey, and Russian tourists boycotted it. The US was hoping for an irrevocable confrontation between Russia and Turkey. A coup d’état against Erdogan, if successful, would make this confrontation with Russia permanent. This confrontation would re-enforce the Wall of Enmity which the US is building from the Baltic, the Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, India, yes India through the Straits of Malacca to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. If the coup d’etat had been successful, Russia would have been eliminated from Middle East involvement.

But the coup did not succeed, possibly with Russian help. Erdogan apologized to Putin, and relations normalized. Slowly, rapprochement between Turkey and Russia became friendly. And then suddenly, three countries: Iran, Turkey, and Russia synchronized their Middle East policy especially in regards to Syria and Lebanon and Hezbollah. So, now, instead of Russian disarray, one has US-Israeli-Saudi disarray.

How will things play out? World events cannot be taken in isolation. The Wall of Enmity has been breached in two places: the Ukraine and Turkey. The Wall of Enmity in North East Asia is stable, because the tension is high.

The situation in the Ukraine is different because of the German situation. Germany is entering a period of uncertainty. Whoever and under what circumstances the next German government is formed, the German people will demand independence, denuclearization, and the end of US military occupation. The Germans are increasingly yearning for an independent foreign policy. The US will try to prevent a German exodus by increasing tensions and the chances of war in the Ukraine and blaming Russia as the aggressor.

Turkey is the key geostrategic pivot of History. The Turks are a proud, nationalistic people. Under Erdogan, they have had the first truly independent foreign policy since the time of Kemal Ataturk. They will not buckle to Western pressure. They do not care for the EU. By being independent and moving closer to Eurasia, Turkey will help reduce or even eliminate Western influence in the Middle East. Turkey will withdraw from NATO very slowly and the US will not push. If Turkey withdraws, NATO unravels. That is the one thing the US does not want.

Another attempt at a coup d’état cannot be excluded.

 

 

 

 

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Very Short Observations III

US decertification of the Iran nuclear deal is very unwise. It has given big momentum to two movements in the world: the dollarization of the world, and, ironically, the isolation of the US, (instead of Russia). In 2014, President Obama imposed sanctions on Russia because of the Ukraine and Crimea returning to Russia of its own volition, and made the claim that Russia  would face isolation; never happened.

The US imposed severe sanctions on Iran. The EU followed. But despite these sanctions, Iran grew stronger, and is the dominant regional power, along with Turkey. Iran with Hasbollah of Lebanon and Russia is enabling Assad of Syria to win. ISIS is being defeated in Iraq and Syria; Israel is in a panic. Israel insists something must be done about Iran; will the US be induced to attack Iran?

The Ukraine is on the verge of rebellion. Misha Shalikashvilli, ex-president of Georgia and ex-governor of Odessa, is leading the charge; things remain to be seen. Ukrainians in general want to be with Russia, as well Byela Rus, Kazakhstan, and other republics of the former USSR. It is only matter of time before the armed forces join the people in the streets of Kiev and overthrow Poroshenko.

In the Middle East, a huge alliance is forming: Turkey, Iran. Iraq, Hesbollah of Lebanon, Yemen. Pakistan is drifting towards the Alliance. The Pakistani contribution to the Alliance will be nuclear. China is a strong ally of Pakistan. Turkey is definitely drifting away from the US, as is Pakistan.

It is possible that the US will lose the Middle East; only Israel will remain. The US is moving into Africa, especially former French Africa. It is rich in minerals such as uranium, gold, iron, copper, etc.; it is also rich in hydrocarbons. Losing four military personnel in Niger is no accident. The reality is that the US is involved in all of Africa. The idea is to prevent Africa from falling under the influence of China, ” the One Belt, One Road” system.

China is introducing  the “Petro-Yuan System” in the oil trade. This could be a very severe blow to dollar domination. Venezuela, Iran, Russia, others will participate in Petro-Yuan System. De-dollarization is accelerating. Many a US politician has said:” We will protect our way of life whatever it takes.” In other words, de-dollarization will not be allowed to succeed. Good reason to have a war.

Short Observations II

The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

German Election Results?

Mutter Merkel did not do too well. As a senior persona and running for her 4th term , she and her CDU should have gotten at least 40% or more, so she could have formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party as in the past; a clear majority would have been best. Germans are restless because of migrants and the stern Russophobia of her government.

The German media tried some Russian interference to discredit the AfD, but it did not work. Alternativa fur Duetschland did well, especially in former East Germany. SPD did poorly. Martin Schultz, the leader, said that the party will go into opposition. Smart move. Merkel will have to court the Free Democratic Party (right), Der Linke (left), and the Greens (Environmentalists).

SDP and AfD will be the opposition. They will want change to German economic and foreign policy. Despite being a wealthy country, Germany has 8 million people living in poverty, out of a population of 84 million. The status quo will no longer do. Even coalition partners will want change.

The Germans want change, and change they will get. Change on the migration policy, on Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea. The opposition will demand that sanctions against Russia be cancelled. The opposition will demand removal of nuclear weapons from the country and a Modus Vivendi with Russia. Germany will move to neutrality. France, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece,and Slovenia will join. Later, all of Europe will go neutral a la Switzerland. Britain will stay faithful to the US.

This massive shift will affect the policy of Africa and Latin America. The role of the dollar and the gold will be reversed. It will be very interesting.

Brief Observations

North Korea, I have said in my tweets, is a side show. The US is caught in Zugzwang. If it opts for war it will lose all its teeth and lower jaw. South Korea and Japan would be severely damaged or even destroyed. The US fighting North Korea is like a lion fighting the porcupine. If a porcupine quilt gets into the lions mouth, the lion will have a miserable fate. The US will huff and puff, but will back off. The nuclear option is off. However, tension could increase to war if the dollar position as reserve currency is threatened. China will start trading oil in yuan backed by gold. The US is upset and may sanction China. The chance of war with the Koreans will considerably increase?

The Ukraine situation is critical. The Ukraine is dying. Ukrainians are ready to revolt. Most of the Ukraine is Ethnically Russian. The Ukraine will rebel. The uprising will be massive. Donbass will help liberate the Ukraine. Poroshenko and company will be hunted like rats. The Ukraine will return to Russia. The US and EU will huff and puff but will be helpless.

Venezuela will not buckle. The opposition has no credibility. They are sold souls. External forces with the help of the opposition will try to overthrow Chavismo but they will fail. The barrios and armed forces will not allow Chavismo to fail. Venezuela is abandoning the dollar. It will set an example for the rest of Latin America.

Middle East Conundrum. A huge Islamic Alliance is forming: Hesbollah of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Yemen, and others. This alliance has thrown its weight behind Assad of Syria. External forces will try to assassinate Assad, but they most likely will not succeed. Panic is gripping Israel and Saudi Arabia. Assad is winning and that is anathema to Israel and the US. Big war is in store over water, strategic resources, and control of the area.

The biggest problems facing the world are the debt and the dollar. Debt is  becoming unbearable for most countries. Most debt is denominated in US dollars. This has given the US a power that has no parallel in world history. It is unique and flawed. This system is neo-slavery. By trapping the Third World in dollar debt, the US gets all the natural resources on a dollar plate for free. The enforcers of this arrangement are the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, backed by the Pentagon.

But the world is waking up and questioning this arrangement. Nations are moving away from subservience to economic independence, and this is the Achilles Heel of this economic arrangement. As more nations abandon the dollar, a huge economic crisis of epic proportions is unfolding.  The system is entering Kaput stage which could lead to war. We will see.

Zugzwang situations of US in Korea, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Turkey, Ukraine, etc.

After the USSR dissolved itself in 1989, the US pushed East. All of Eastern Europe fell under US influence, plus many republics of the former USSR such as the Baltic republics and Georgia. It was the greatest gain of geostrategic territory in human history in such a short amount of time. It was done without war, but through lies, deceptions, and false promises that were never kept. Russia, under Yeltsin, was on the verge of collapse. Life expectancy and demographics were collapsing. It appeared that the further fragmentation of Russia was inevitable. But one man finally aroused Russian defiance, and that man was Putin.

It was evident to the West that Russia under Putin would not buckle. On the contrary, Russia grew stronger. Like the Phoenix, it rose from the ashes. Despite its economically  small size compared to the US, China, and the EU, it is incomparably powerful due to its size, geographic position, natural wealth, and resilience of its people. It is present in the Pacific, Arctic, North Atlantic, Baltic, Central Europe-Kaliningrad, Central Asia, Black Sea without spending a kopek.

US, being essentially isolated geographically in North America must project power in order to be pertinent and to extract natural wealth from others. This policy has become unbearably expensive and the rewards have had diminishing returns with the passing of time.

As universal hegemon, the US is involved everywhere diplomatically, economically, and militarily, imposing its policy and worldview on others. The world has become very resentful and is starting to fight back.

One modus operandi of US foreign policy has been economic strangulation of economies of countries that do not follow US instructions. But lately, this policy has not been too successful. A good example is Iran. Many methods have been tried occultly with the participation of Israel but to no avail. Iran is getting stronger and stronger. The US and Israel may try a military option, but this is fraught with great danger.

The US Congress is legislating serious sanctions against Russia which the President will sign in order to weaken the Russians. It will fail. Russia is an autarchy (meaning a country who is economically independent, not the authoritarian definition) and such countries only get stronger. The German invasion of the USSR is a good example. Also, countries of the world are moving away from subservience to US and moving to independence. An excellent example is Turkey.

Thus, the US is caught in Zugzwang in many geographic situations of the world: North Korea, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Venezuela, etc.  It is conducting military exercises constantly with its allies from the Baltic, Black Sea, Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, South China Sea to North Korea.

One can say that US foreign policy consists of a constant poking and provoking.

Syrian War II

The ISIS stage of the Syrian war is changing; the US approach is changing. In addition to supporting ISIS it has also thrown its support behind the Kurds of Syria and Iraq. The plan to partition Syria and Lebanon has not changed. The occult plan to remove Assad and Partition Syria should have been accomplished by the end of 2014 but plans did not pan out; even the poison gas trick did not work.

The plan to remove Assad and to implement “Partition Syria” is still the goal, except it now has a sense of urgency. Assad is still in power and the Syrian Army is getting stronger. Assad is resilient and tough like his father Hafez was. Hafez would not buckle under US pressure and recognize the State of Israel, as did Egypt under Anvar Al Sadat and Jordan in the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter. Lebanon would also not recognize Israel. By recognizing Israel, Anwar Al Sadat paid with his life. He was assassinated in 1979.

Israel thought it could partition Lebanon by itself, and get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River. Israel, like any other state, is not viable without an abundance of fresh water, and their attempt did not succeed. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 2006 failed. Hesbollah gave Israel a very bloody nose. Israel sustained heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. The US and Israel decided to dismember Syria by proxy and so the Islamic State, ISIS, was created. The Syrian war started in earnest in 2011, the year that Gaddafi of Libya was impaled and killed. Remember what Hillary said: “We came, we saw, and he died. Ha! Ha !” Sick mind. Putting a demented twist on Caesar’s immortal words: Vene, Vidi, Vici.

By 2013, they blamed Assad for a chemical attack; it didn’t work. By 2014, the slogan was: Assad must go. Assad did not go. Russian support of Syria increased as did Iranian and that of Hesbollah of Lebanon. With their help, Assad was able to liberate the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, as well as Aleppo. Israel would bomb the Syrian Army position in support of ISIS. Even during so called peace time, prior to 2011, Israeli jets would regularly fly over Damascus and the summer residence of the President of Syria; Syria would not respond.

The situation today is very critical. The US has realized that the only way to partition Syria is to establish an independent Kurdistan out of North East Syria and North East Iraq. The US has forces in Iraq not to help Iraq fight ISIS but to control it and to delay its victory over ISIS. Independent Iraq would help Assad and the US wants to prevent that; the Iraqis know that, Especially Muqtada al Sader and the Shias. The Syrian war is heating up. Turkey will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Severe estrangement is developing between US and Turkey and Turkey will probably leave NATO and abandon the US.

The US shot down a Syrian jet over Syria, an independent state and member of UN. In all honesty, this is a violation of International law. Syria is not an enemy of the US, nor has Syria asked for US help. Also, Syria is not a threat to US security. The actions of the US also violates the morals and ethics of the Universe. There is no justification for such actions except raw power. If the US persists in such actions, there will be a reaction. Remember the Third Law of Motion: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia will strengthen Syrian air defenses and US planes and drones will start falling from the sky a la Vietnam War. It is possible that Karma is based on the Third Law of Motion. Iran will also increase its help to Syria.

If the Kurds proclaim their independence with US help, Turkey will enter the fray on the side of Syria. If that happens, the US will lose. Would the US bomb Turkey? Possibly, but not likely. However, again, anything is possible.

Increased Iranian help, let us say, 200,000 Iranian Troops or Irano-Turkish combination of 300,000 troops would arouse US-Israeli-British ire and a huge Middle East War would begin. The war would engulf Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Yemen. The Saudi dynasty and Jordanian monarchy would collapse. The petro dollar would be finished. Oil prices would skyrocket. The EU and the US would enter into super depression. The rest of the world would  not be any better. However, countries connected by land from the Pacific- Indian Ocean to the Atlantic would start to coalesce. Afro-Eurasia would start coalescing. The US and the UK would be excluded.

The plan of the US is partition of Syria via Kurdistan which would become an ally of Israel, supplying it with precious fresh water from the Euphrates as well as oil. The second reason is the humiliating defeat of Russia and its’ eviction from the Middle East. The third reason is the destruction and conquest of Iran, the enemy of Israel and Saudis. By controlling Iran, the US would be able to control the Persian Gulf. It also would enable the US to control Central Asia. Just look the geography of the area.  Extra big war is in the works in the Middle East which may go nuclear.