Category Archives: Ukraine

Delenda est Russia

The idea to destroy Russia is not a new idea for the West. The most recent example was in Germany, 1941- 1945. The US declared war on Germany only after the German declaration of war on the US, which resulted from the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbour, Hawaii. Hawaii at that time was a colonial possession of the US. Britain declared war on Germany after Hitler invaded Poland. Britain was obliged to honor its commitment to France. France and Poland were very close to each other, like hand in glove, but many in Britain opposed the declaration of war.

The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour was choreographed by the US. The US embargoed the oil supply to Japan from all Western controlled oil sources. Also, Japan was forbidden the use of the Panama Canal. Japan had no choice: surrender or fight. So Japan chose to fight, hoping for a knockout blow. It didn’t work out however because the US broke the Japanese secret code. So the US decided to play the victim, leaving a few battleships in the Harbour; this Japanese venture was doomed to failure from the start. And the result: Japan is now an occupied country loaded with US military hardware.

The US played differently with Germany though. It declared war on Germany only after Hitler declared war on the US in December, 1941. By default, the US became a reluctant ally of Russia. Russia, alone, faced the combined might of Germany and all of occupied Europe. The British campaign in North Africa was a minor side show. The US lend lease to Russia was fully paid back by the USSR by the early 1950’s.

The Cold War started at the end of the Second World War. But even before the war ended, Churchill had suggested, ‘Operation Unthinkable’: Britain and the US to join the Wehrmacht in fighting the USSR. The decay of the USSR started with its de-Stalinization under the leadership of Nikita Khrushchev. The USSR was kaput by 1991. A decade of plunder began under Boris Yeltsin, and the end of history was proclaimed. Had Western liberalism triumphed?  US hegemony was peaking and Russian weakness was bottoming out.

By 2000, Russia was weak but not defeated. Under a new leader it rose like the Phoenix from the ashes, resilient and getting stronger by the day. And all along since 1945, the US has been playing the dollar card. All the financial games of the world have been controlled by US institutions: the Federal Reserve, the IMF, the World Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, and the Bank for International Development.

After the Ukrainian coup d’état of 2014, the US decided to destroy Russia economically and it applied an economic squeeze; they attacked the ruble. In a matter of weeks, the ruble dropped from around 29 to the dollar to over 70 to the dollar. Oil prices collapsed from near a hundred dollars per barrel to less than thirty dollars per barrel. This hurt Russia badly, but Russia did not buckle. The West then applied sanctions on Russia. They tried using SWIFT, Society for World Wide Financial Transactions, to ban Russian transactions but backed off; Russia now has its own version of SWIFT.

The Third Law of Motion states: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia banned agricultural products from the West. It stopped using Baltic state ports and rail systems which had been built by the Soviets. The result: hardship for the farmers of the EU and severe economic injury to the Baltic republics. Russian agriculture is now booming. Russia has become the number one wheat exporter in the world. Western sanctions should remain permanent because they only help the Russians, they are a blessing in disguise. It must be understood, Russia is an autarchic power par excellence, the only one in the world; it cannot be destroyed economically.

Russia cannot be destroyed economically, because Russia is an autarchic power. So, the West will try  to control Russia militarily by using enhanced nuclear weapons which are very unique. Whether the Russians or the Chinese have any inkling of these weapons is unknown. China and Russia must be destroyed at the same time for the West to be successful. That is the theory and the belief of the planners. However, the destruction of the planet Earth, will more likely be the result.

The significance of India-Pakistan animosity in the world of geo-politics

When India achieved independence from Britain in 1947, it split along the religious line: the Hindu India and Islamic Pakistan. The split was encouraged by the Anglo-Americans. The British did not like Mahatma  Gandhi or Jawarhal Nehru, and preferred Muhammad Ali Jinna, the founder of modern Pakistan.

When the split occurred, Hindu India, a much bigger country, ended up with Jammu Kashmir, a  beautiful Himalayan valley populated mainly by the Muslims, but ruled by a Hindu who sided with Hindu India. The fight over Kashmir persists to this day and will persist into the future.

Both Pakistan and India are multi-ethnic. In 1971, Pakistan split into West Pakistan, a larger region west of India, and East Pakistan, east of India, the so called Bengal. Its new name is Bangla Desh, land of Bengalis. Bitter war was fought in East Pakistan by West Pakistan to keep  East Pakistan in union with West Pakistan. Three million Bengalis lost their lives. Under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, the daughter of Nehru, India helped East Pakistan to become independent. The US sided with West Pakistan, and President Nixon sent the 7th Fleet from the western Pacific into the Bay of Bengal to intimidate the Indians. It did not work, as the Soviet Union sided with India. In December of 1961, Russia sided with India over the annexation of Portuguese Goa, while the US and Britain sided with Portugal. India considered Russia an “all weather friend”. How things change!

India is much bigger with a population of over 1.25 billion people and land area of around 1.2 million square miles. Pakistan, on the other hand, is much smaller with a population of over 200 million and a land area of around 300,000 square miles. Strategically speaking, Pakistan is holding more pivotal connections of Asia. Pakistan borders China on the North-East, India on the East, Afghanistan on North-West, Iran on the West, and the Indian Ocean on the South. India is considered a subcontinent of Asia jutting out to the Indian Ocean. Its land borders are Nepal, China in the North, Bangla Desh, Mayanmar to the East, Pakistan to the West.

Pakistan has a strategic relationship with China and a subservient role vis a vis the US. India has a rather cool relationship with China because of its’ border disputes in the Himalayas, a warming relationship with the US, and a geostrategic relationship with Russia.

As China enters the global stage, it is developing trade routes with South-West Asia and Europe via Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans and into Europe, and if Turkey achieves rapprochement with Russia, the process will accelerate. Also, Pakistan is a transit country enabling the US to invade Afghanistan, maintain military operations against the Taliban, and control the opium trade, a highly profitable enterprise that helps maintain the dollar as the Reserve Currency of the world. It is self-evident that Pakistan is extremely important, geo -strategically speaking, to US and China; it is also a nuclear power.

As mentioned, India is a large and important country of the Asian Subcontinent and the center of Hindu Civilization. It has had a very independent foreign policy, first as the co- founding member  of the Non-Aligned Movement, and now as the co-founding member of BRICS, { Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the Republic of South Africa.) It is a nuclear power, and the 6th or the 7th economic power of the world.

India is drifting West, buying high tech weapons from Israel, Rafale jet fighters from France. It is entering some sort of military basing arrangements with the US which has never happened before. US wants India to be a keystone in the Wall of Enmity that the US is building from the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Black Sea, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Philippines, Japan to South Korea. The Wall would hem in Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia. The gate keeper with the keys would be the US.

If India joins the Wall of Enmity though, it would lose its privileged geostrategic relationship with Russia, and its moral influence in the world. It would also lose its influence in BRICS, and would never be able to participate in the Silk Roads that China and other countries are building. India would become the odd man out on the Afro-Eurasian land mass. India, most likely, will not join the Wall of Enmity. However, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Pakistan, on the other hand, would like to break out from US subservience. It has sent feelers to Russia. Russia and Pakistan will hold some kind of military exercises very soon. India is upset, understandably so, but India should understand that if it has the right to choose its partners, then so do other countries.

Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing, as more and more of its’ countries are abandoning the strict subservience which the US dictates. They are using their own currencies in two way trade, thereby avoiding the dollar and trade is growing amongst them  as a result. India, Pakistan, Iran, and Venezuela want to join the Shanghai Co-operation Organization. Other countries are also trying to re-assert their independence: Turkey, Philippines, Japan, plus France, Germany, and Italy are in the game.

The animosity between India and Pakistan might impede the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia. An India connected to the West would not be interested in Afro-Eurasian coalescence and a geo-strategic relationship with Russia. Pakistan, on the other hand, because of its geo-strategic position would enhance the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia especially if it joins the Shanghai Co-operation Organization and BRICS, minus India, and possibly, Brazil. So history is implying that with or without India, Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing. Only time will tell.

 

The Dollar Armageddon

The essential plan of the West is total domination of the Earth, which would result in the flow of all natural resources and all natural wealth to the International Community of the West from the rest, as was done under Colonialism. This new phase of exploitation is being carried out under the banner of Globalization. The Anglo-Americans, the British Empire and the US, were the organizers of the new financial system in 1944 at Bretton Woods, New  Hampshire, US., today known as the Bretton Woods Agreement. The chief players were John Maynard Keynes of the UK, Harry Dexter White, and Henry Morgenthau Jr. of the US Treasury.

The Anglo-Americans realized that the Colonized World wanted to be decolonized and independent, and since they could not prevent decolonization, they decided they could slow it down and install their own puppets. Any new leader who rebelled against Western control would be overthrown or even killed. Winston Churchill proclaimed the Cold War against the USSR in 1947 in Fulton Head, Missouri, USA. Patrice Lumumba of the Belgian Congo comes to mind. He was impaled and killed in 1961.

Globalization began. Beautiful phrases, such as “Food for Peace” programs were used to entrap  newly independent states. Foreign Aid was used not to help but to enslave. The International Monetary Fund{IMF}, and the World Bank were the chief agents of debt enslavement.The Cold War was in full swing.

Despite the massive destruction of the USSR caused by the German invasion in the Second World War, the basic living standard of the Soviet Union was higher than that of the US.  Housing was tight, and families lived together in cramped quarters because of the war destruction, but the Soviet People had jobs, free education, free health care, one month vacation, and one year maternity leave with pay. Public transportation was available. Just compare the metro systems of the two countries in the nineteen fifties. Basic consumer goods were available, but an abundance of consumer goods was not. The Soviet People had job security and a sense of serenity which was not available to the West.

Western policy makers decided to push three things on the world: abundant consumerism vs socialist austerity, wide spread debt at home and abroad, and world-wide militarization as exemplified by NATO, SEATO, and CENTO*; in other words globalization. US banks and corporations were everywhere. American Culture, food, and military bases were everywhere; the US was omnipotent. Credit cards were introduced in the 1960’s. (Remember the commercial for American Express? “Don’t leave home without it.”) Western corporations yearned for profit and huge profits were associated with cheap labour. Western factories were moving East to China, when China opened up in 1979, and to other countries of the East and South as well.

Wages in the US were deteriorating for the working class since the early sixties of the last century, but the US corporation has been doing great. In the 18th and 19th centuries Western corporations were moving slaves from Africa to the plantations of North America, the West Indies, and South America. In the latter half of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st Century, corporations have been moving their plantations, factories, to the slaves. 95% of Americans today belong to what I call the Precariat Class, a totally dispossessed economic class.

In 2016, Americans still don’t have tax based universal health care, no free education of superior quality, no affordable housing, no public transportation, and outright home ownership is only around 11%. No wonder Americans are angry, and this is why Donald Trump is winning. The ownership class cannot stop him in an “honest way”, so they will try to stop him either by hook or by crook. Massive demonstrations may occur in defense of Trump. Martial law may be imposed, and the presidential election may be postponed or even cancelled.

Economic conditions are no better. Real unemployment is high, anywhere from 20% to 42%. Wages are stagnating. Ninety million Americans are not working. Obesity, a side effect of the American economic system, is in epidemic mode. Sixty six percent are obese and thirty seven percent are morbidly obese. Chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, cancer are rampant. Life expectancy is going down. Basic infrastructure is collapsing. People are over medicated. Grocery stores are full of embalmed, genetically modified food ( but beautifully packaged!). All for profit, and without giving a damn about people or the environment. Just look at Flint, Michigan and their drinking water. The US, the hope of mankind, is becoming a third world country.

The world economy is no better. Much of the world is either in severe recession or depression. The Baltic Dry Index has imploded, with slight improvement lately. World consumption has collapsed, hence massive slowdown from South Korea to Germany. Japan is in perpetual depression. China is slowing down. Latin America, Africa, and South Asia are either in near or full depressions. Canada, Australia, the European Union are either in severe recession or are entering one. The Ukraine is on the verge of exploding. The Middle East is a cauldron that will enlarge. The only area of stability is Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Sanctions against Russia are great blessings in disguise. Import substitution and self reliance are engines of growth and power. Presently, Brazil and Venezuela are being destabilized from outside and inside.

In summary, unnecessary consumption is collapsing world wide. Debt in dollar terms is still growing  but at a snail’s pace. World wide trade is collapsing. Countries with an independent foreign policy such as India, Iran, China, Russia, and others are accumulating gold and shunning the dollar. This is a nightmare for the US. It is quite possible that some obscure company somewhere in the South Asian region will reject trade in dollars, but will accept gold or Chinese yuan. Panic will set in. The dollar could drop by twenty percent in overnight trade. Gold and silver would sky rocket. Trade between the US and the world would collapse. Interest rates in dollars would rise to an unbelievable level, but would not help the dollar. The US could not import anything with its currency, but only with gold or some foreign currency which was convertible to gold. The Armageddon of the dollar is coming. The ownership elite of the US will know for the first time in its history what it’s like to actually work for a living rather than living off the suffering and labor of others. My analysis is very, very correct and true but only time will reveal that.

 

*= NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization SEATO: Southeast Asia Treaty Organization

     CENTO: Central Treaty Organization

 

 

 

Ukraine is about to attack Novorussiya

Violence is increasing along the line of demarcation in Novorussiya*. The Kiev Regime is planning something, and it’s a matter of war or collapse, so it has chosen attack. Heavy equipment has been moved to the front, and a new mobilization of fresh troops has taken place but the results have not been impressive. The economy is collapsing and the regime of Yatsenyuk is on the verge of self destruction. Poroshenko wants to replace Yatsenyuk with American-born finance minister Jaresko. The Americans are getting impatient, and they want action…

The US is afraid that the European Union is going to lift sanctions against Russia this year. If this happens it will mean that Europe wants a rapprochement with Russia. They realize that a future without Russia is not possible. The war in the Ukraine would create animosity towards Russia which would be music to US ears.

The second reason is that this is the last chance for an offensive by the Kiev regime against Donbass and Lugansk. They are in the same dilemma that Germany was in before the Battle of Kursk in the Second World War.

The third reason is Syria. The US and its coalition is not doing well. Turkey and President Erdogan are going berserk; they are pounding the Kurds of South East Turkey. It seems that civil war is inevitable for them. So the US hopes that a war in the Ukraine might improve its position in Syria.

Spring is here! An ideal time for war. The Ukrainians have been re-equipped by the US. US military personnel are swarming all over the country. Numerous mercenaries have been in the East. Also, both sides have realized that the situation can only be resolved by war. The Minsk II Agreement was never honored by the Ukraine, but the failure has been blamed on Russia.

When the Ukrainian attack comes it will be massive, but the Novorussiya line will hold. Donbas will then counter attack in three directions: Kiev, the River Dnieper region; Mariupol, Odessa region; and Kharkov. People will join the Donbass Army, and the Ukrainian Army will mostly desert. The Kiev regime leaders and the oligarchs will try to escape to Canada, Israel, the US, and some other countries. Many will be caught and punished. The Ukraine will take its rightful place in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Only time will tell.

*Novorussiya is the region of the Eastern Ukraine which is in rebellion. It consists of the two provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk

Will the dollar be defended to the end?

In many  of my previous posts, I have stated that the US Economic System is based on three pillars of paper, and all three of these are based on debt. The three pillars of paper are the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market. Of the three, the dollar is the most important because it is the essence and instrument of US power. In the 1951 film version of Charles Dickens’ short story “A Christmas Carol”, there is a character, Mr. Jorkin, who says: “Control the cash box and you control the world”. The US has been controlling  the world since 1944, when the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed. The dollar became the reserve currency connected to gold at 35 dollars an ounce, and other convertible currencies were connected to the dollar. Nearly all trade and debt was denominated in dollars. Economically and financially speaking the world became dollar centric.

However, the dollar is still connected to gold, because the dollar without gold is like a fish without water. It cannot exist as the Reserve and Official currency of the world. It can only exist as the local currency in the US, because in the US, the dollar is the Legal Tender. The Petro Dollar depends on the whims of OPEC. It is not reliable. Gold, on the other hand, has the full backing of Mother Earth. Gold was created  when the Universe was created, and has the Energy of the Sun. Petroleum can be consumed, but gold cannot be consumed nor destroyed.

For the dollar to be convertible into gold, gold must be available in dollar terms at any price anywhere in the world. If that relationship ceases, the dollar can no longer be the reserve currency of the world. Powerful non Western countries are accumulating gold on the cheap, at around eleven hundred dollars an ounce. In one of my previous posts I stated that gold is leaving the West and going to the rest, especially to the East.

There is a “purpose” to this lunacy. By keeping the, dollar “artificially” strong, the US is destroying the countries of the world which are indebted in dollars. They are further pushed into economic slavery by the International Monetary Fund, {IMF}, and the World Bank. Both banks are agents of the US, despite international sounding names. Indebted nations are in severe depression. They are selling their natural resources for pennies on the dollar. They cannot buy any manufactured goods from China, South Korea, Japan, and Europe, so these regions are slowing down which further puts pressure on commodities. First world countries like Canada, Australia are entering severe recession, if not depression, while counties such as Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina, and others are entering depression. The currencies of these and other countries are collapsing. Russia and China are special targets. These two countries must be destroyed or neutralized for the US to have  total world domination. High Noon is fast approaching.

Russia is the “special” target. Russia has the capacity to be totally self-sufficient as it was during Second World War when it was the Soviet Union.  Germany in 1942 controlled all of  Russia just west of Leningrad, west of Stalingrad. The Soviet Union could not be defeated despite the fact that Germany controlled all of Europe. A similar situation exists today. For the US to control the world it must subjugate Russia. How to do that? Simple: economically. The first stage was to tear the Ukraine from Russia. So far it has not succeeded. The Ukraine is a political, economic, and moral mess. It is on the verge of collapse. When the Ukraine collapses, people will rise up, take over, and join Russia. Nuclear war against Russia is unthinkable for it would mean catastrophe for Humanity and all life on Earth, although the possibility of nuclear war is at its highest ever. The only alternative is economic strangulation.

To strangle Russia you simply have to tear it apart economically. Because of the Ukraine and Crimea, sanctions were imposed by the West and the countries closely associated with the West such as Japan. The Russian currency was attacked and devalued but not destroyed. The oil price was made to collapse  with the help of Saudi Arabia and Gulf Arab States. Military pressure was applied on the president of Syria. Propaganda against Putin was increased. Russia calmly responded; counter sanctions against the West. They are hurting badly. Devaluation of the Ruble is essentially positive, but the low oil price is not. Russia is the number one oil producer in the world and exports two thirds of its oil. There is a cushion of profitability. Russia suffers but will not buckle.

Russia is fighting back. It is avoiding the dollar like the plague. It is signing trade deals with other countries in their respective currencies. It is developing its own SWIFT,or Society for Worldwide International Financial Transfers. It is also developing worldwide tele-communication systems which exclude the West. With the help of Iran and Hesbollah it is successfully fighting ISIS in Syria. Yemeni Houthis have check mated the Saudis in Yemen. The oil price collapse which the Saudis helped to engineer is hurting them economically. Rebellion is brewing in the country. The Shia, in the Eastern Provinces where the oil is, are very restless. Foreign workers and native Sunnis are also very restless. In one of my previous posts I stated that Saudi Arabia will first implode then explode. This will be very negative for the dollar.

China is being courted to let the renminbi join the IMF currency system which would enable the dollar to continue to be reserve currency of the world. China will play the game even though it does not trust the game because it has no choice; it is trapped in the US financial  web. China is trying to extricate itself slowly from this trap. China is buying gold and selling US Treasuries. It is expanding non US trade and aid using the renminbi; the dollar is under attack.

But the US is fighting back. The TPP, Trans Pacific Partnership, was negotiated with some South East Asian and Latin American countries. Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico are included. The idea behind the agreement is to consolidate the use of the dollar in trade. A similar agreement is being negotiated with the European Union, the Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Policy. Will the US succeed in keeping the dollar official currency of the world?Nobody knows.

If the dollar is dethroned, it will be catastrophic for the US. The US will lose the instrument of enslavement. It will no longer be able to exploit the rest of the world through usury. It will no longer be able to finance itself without inflation, followed by hyperinflation. It will no longer be able to maintain military bases in other countries and project its power. The US stock and bond markets may collapse, and the dollar may follow. The people who control America are strong believers in the saying: “It is our way or the highway”. “High Noon” is around the corner. If the US fails, it will become the third world country of North America. In many ways, it already is. Only time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

Quo Vadis, 2016?

2016 may turn out to be a very significant year. Many thought that 2015 would be the year of the stock market crash, but this didn’t happen. Many more negatives than positives occurred in 2015 though. Stock indecis reached new highs in the first half of the year, and now at the end of the year are in correction mode. It is not likely that they will crash in the last few days of trading remaining, although they could, since nobody expects it.

On the world scene, the West and Turkey were exposed as chief supporters of ISIS, in addition to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. The Paris and San Bernardino tragedies should not have been a surprise. The Russian plane disaster in Egypt was a surprise but the Western press did not moan about it. The Beirut bombing by ISIS did not get much coverage. The Turkish destruction of a Russian bomber over Syria was not really condemned by the West. The hypocrisy of the West was in full bloom in the Ukraine, the Middle East, South East Asia and other places in the world.

Also in 2015, precious metals, oil, and other commodities collapsed. The dollar was strong and Third World economies were in a severe depression. Canada, Australia, and some European states were entering a depression, but Russia just got stronger. China was trying to stabilize its economy. The Yuan became an International Reserve Currency member, and even though only as a junior partner, this is just the beginning.

What will 2016 bring? It will be much more exciting than 2015. It could be the Year of Super Black Swans. The most important event that will most likely take place is the American presidential election in November. There is a lot of anger and discontent in this country that the mainstream media does not show but which will fully manifest itself this Election Year. There is only one candidate that stands out, and that is Donald Trump. He is politically “incorrect” and people love it. All other candidates, Republican and Democratic, are nothing more than cookie cutter “apparachicks”. Powerful people in the country want to resuscitate Senator Ted Cruz, but they will not succeed; Donald Trump, on the Republican side is unstoppable and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

The economy will play a key role in these elections. In an earlier post I stated that the present US economy is based on three pillars of paper: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and all three are supported by debt. This situation cannot be sustained. The presidential election and the economy may turn out to be very ugly and a super bad Black Swan may manifest itself.

There is a war going on between Russia and the US, whether people realize this or not. The US wants to destroy Russia, leave it fragmented, and plundered. The war in the Ukraine may start any moment. The Kiev regime days are numbered. It will lash out and lose. History is on Novorossia’s side. When war starts, the Ukrainian Army will desert. Only Western mercenaries and jihadis will fight on the Kiev Junta side. The Ukrainian People will rebel and chase the Junta out of Kiev. A super Black Swan may develop in the Ukraine.

A super, super bad Black Swan may develop in the Middle East. It is sad that the West, Israel, and Turkey are supporting ISIS. There is a danger of an Israeli- Hesballah war. Hesballah is heavily engaged in operations against ISIS in Syria, so Israel may take the opportunity to attack Hesballah and get the waters of the Litani River. Israel desperately needs water. Hesballah may not be a pushover. Also, Palestanians will join in the fight against Israel. ISIS might lose the war in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has invaded Northern Iraq around Mosul. The Kurds in Turkey are rising up. Saudi Arabia is not doing well in Yemen. The US, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia may lose because they are on wrong side of History. Nuclear weapons  may be used. A super bad Black swan may develop.

The European Union is in deep crisis; it has no independent foreign policy  Economically, many of its’ countries are in a deep depression.The Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria are in a depression. France, Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are no better. Germany and Scandinavia are also suffering. The Russian sanctions have boomeranged. A super Black Swan here is not likely in 2016. A shifting of Europe from the North Atlantic to Russia is likely though, and migration will be a big problem.

Africa is waking up and wants to control its natural resources. It is shifting East. A super bad Black Swan here is not likely. Latin America is somewhat less stable. The governments of Venezuela, Brasil, and other Latin American republics will be under attack but will survive. The collapse of commodity prices and dollar debt will be a big problem for Africa and Latin America. The shift to the East will continue in this coming year.

The Indian Subcontinent will be fairly stable. The Taliban will gain strength and possibly gain power. The TAPI pipeline is being built from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to India. The Taliban will not oppose it. Iran is developing a very strong strategic partnership with Russia. This Iran-Russia partnership is one of the most natural partnerships to develop in the world. India is developing a strong relationship with Russia and Iran as well. This will continue in 2016. Putin  made a visit to Iran this year, and Prime Minister Modi of India visited Russia this week confirming the desire for this relationship.

China is developing a strong relationship with Russia. China and Russia realize they have to stick together or they will hang separately. South East Asia, despite the TPP, will move closer to China. It will develop Modus Vivendi with China. Its prosperity depends on close co-operation with China. China is the magnet that is pulling the world away from the US. A confrontation in the South China Sea is just one example. But the chances of a Black Swan in South East Asia is not very likely in 2016.

In Summary, 2016 will see increased confrontation between Russia and the US. The dollar will be under attack and gold will rise. Events occurring this year in the US will confirm that the US is in pre-revolutionary state. If powerful individuals try to eliminate Donald Trump, people will rebel. If one of the three paper pillars of the economy cracks, the whole system will collapse. The chances of nuclear war will increase. 2016 will be the beginning of the end of tall buildings, the most wasteful symbols of the system based on waste, arrogance, and greed. People will be returning to simpler things, a respect for natural things, like respect for Mother Earth. It is the only home we’ve got. Happy New Year!

 

TURKISH BOOMERANG

The Turkish downing of the Russian plane in Syria is a serious provocation with unknown long term consequences. It was planned ahead by two countries, Turkey and the US, because they both support the Islamic State or ISIS. They want control of Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon by hook or by crook…

The US is building the Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia via the Baltic States, and Poland, through the Ukraine, which I mentioned in one of my previous posts. It wants to extend that Wall of Enmity to the Middle East via Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. The five pivot states of this extended Wall of Enmity would be Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and possibly, Jordan would be partitioned or re-arranged to serve the interests of the US and some other key countries such as Israel. But Russia and Iran stand in the way, and Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are the battle grounds. The airspace of these three countries is constantly being violated by Israel and the US with not a peep about it in the Western press.

How have events been developing in the Middle East? The US has been bombing ISIS for more than a year, with absolutely no effect, because they were not really bombing ISIS but Syrian infrastructure. Western analysts and media were predicting the collapse of Syria and the removal of Assad. Russia, Iran, and Hesballah stepped in, and now, it seems ISIS and other groups are on the run. This panicked the US and Turkey. The US and Turkey could not send troops into Syria to help ISIS. What would the world say? Turkey was never friendly to Russia. It milked Russia via construction projects in Russia, Russian tourism, and cheap Russian gas. The Russians, being sincere, mistook this for friendship. It was far from it. The Turkish stream was a vague arrangement. The US did not want a Russian South stream, why would they want a Turkish stream? The US secretly agreed to help ISIS with which Turkey whole heartedly agreed, and which Turkey already was helping along with the Saudi Arabian and Gulf Monarchies. The US and Turkey planned this provocation, especially now with ISIS on the run. The Paris tragedy confused the situation but did not derail the planning. The plan was to shoot the Russian bomber, and accuse Russia of a violation of Turkish airspace. The Russian pilot would have supposedly been given warnings to steer clear. Imagine, ten warnings in five minutes. The Turks showed some real concern, and then shot the plane from behind. A “real stab in the back” as declared by President Putin, who knows what he is talking about. President Obama defended the Turkish action by saying that every country has a right to defend itself. Of course every country allied with the US does, but Syria not allied with the US so it has no right. This is how the world works these days.

Turkey went to NATO, crying that Russia violated its airspace, and despite repeated warnings, had no choice but to shoot the plane from behind. Turkey was hoping that NATO would use Article 5 (an attack on one is an attack on all) to confront Russia, but this did not happen. Why it did not happen is because the TRUTH sabotaged the plan. The whole world knew that Turkey stabbed Russia in the back. Vague support was given to Turkey but nothing else. President Hollande of France came to the White House on November 24 to organize an aggressive response to ISIS, but “Francois’s”   ideas were only politely considered. Today, November 26, the President of France is in Moscow conferring with Putin.

What will be the consequences of all this? President Obama has probably instructed Turkey to be tough. Initially, Russia wants a sincere  apology and compensation, but Erdogan will offer nothing. Russia should be concerned of what is going on in Ukraine, for instance the cutting off of electricity to the Crimea and the banning of all Russian flights. The Ukraine is also mobilizing troops in Donbas. A sudden Ukrainian attack cannot be excluded. Americans are training Ukrainian troops as we speak. Ukrainians are waiting for the US order to attack. Novorussia must be ready. The possibility of an ISIS attack in Russia should not be dismissed. The Black Sea passage blockade can also not be excluded,but I am sure Russia has alternative contingencies for everything.

Turkey will face some serious consequences in spite of the bravado of Erdogan and the economic losses will be severe. Russian tourists, food exports, Turkish firms working in Russia will all be lost or cut. The losses will be in the billions of dollars and will send Turkey into a severe recession, if not a full-blown depression. The world will shun Turkey for openly supporting ISIS. The Kurds of Turkey will rise up. There could be coup d’état in Turkey. Socio-economic upheaval cannot be excluded. Morally and ethically speaking, Turkey has been severely damaged. Russian efforts in Syria will intensify and this “stab in the back” will not be soon forgotten,

The US is entering a serious phase of economic crisis, and it’s just around the corner. Now, the whole world knows that secretly, the US is supporting ISIS. Whether the US succeeds in building the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean remains to be seen. Nemesis is waiting down the road. Many European states, large and small, will distance themselves from NATO, Turkey, and the US. Only time will tell.