Category Archives: interest rates

Is the US facing the same problems as Third Century Rome?

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The world, but particularly the US, is entering a period of great uncertainty, as did Rome in the third century AD. There were external threats and internal instability. Inflation was destroying the internal fabric. The coinage was diluted of its precious metals, silver and gold. People lost faith in its institutions, its army and its emperors. Through such inflation, the people were getting poorer. The longevity of its emperors was very short after the assassination of the Emperor Alexander Severus in 235 AD  The Empire fragmented and was in danger of collapsing. Two external threats were ever present: the Tribes of Northern and Eastern Europe were pressing on the Empire and in the East, there were Persian threats. Three emperors lost wars with Persia, and one, Emperor Valerian, was even captured by the Persians in 260 AD through a ruse.

The 42nd Emperor Claudius Gothicus, (268-270), stabilized the frontiers by defeating the Alemani and the Goths, but unfortunately, died of some kind of infection.  The 51st Emperor Deocletian, (284-305), further strengthened the Empire by reducing inflation, further stabilizing the frontiers, and introducing tetrarchy to government. Tetrarchy is four person rule.  Deoclitian split the administration into a Western Empire centered in Rome, and an Eastern Empire centered in the future city of Constantinople to be founded by Emperor Constantine the Great in 330 AD. When the Western Empire fell in 476 AD, the Eastern Empire or Byzantine Empire lasted for almost one thousand years until Contantinople fell to the Turks in 1453.

Is the US in a similar situation? Possibly?  The US has been in decline since President Nixon defaulted on the gold obligation of 35 dollars for one ounce of gold. Nixon proclaimed it would be temporary, but almost 50 years later is still going. As a result inflation became rampant, Congress became generous and passed the law that allowed Americans to own gold again. President Roosevelt and Congress banned ownership of gold except in jewelry in 1933.

Economic conditions were deteriorating slowly. Inflation in the seventies, Reaganomics in the eighties, Clintonomics in the nineties, subprime mortgages and the tech bubble in the first decade of the new millennium and a severe bust in 2007-09 that nearly collapsed the entire system. Throughout this period, living standards for Americans were going down. The main culprits were debt, public and private, quality job losses, inflation, lack of affordable universal health care, expensive education, and foreign military interventions.

As I mentioned in my previous posts, the three pillars of paper, all based on debt, are keeping this system afloat, but just barely, and they are the dollar, the stock market, and the bond market. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are keeping the system going by shunting new money into stocks and bonds creating conditions for a financial shock that is becoming inevitable. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing are propping up the system, but not curing it; it cannot be cured.

One could call the US economy a “mirage” because there has been no actual growth since the late 1960’s. The living standards of the people have been going down and down, but the lies and deceptions have been going up. One does not know whom to believe. In socio-economic terms, three economic classes have developed in the US: the owner class of 1%, the overseer class of 4-5%, and the Precariat class of around 95%. The Precariat Class is composed of all ethnic groups, religions, and races, but it is kept divided by the Ownership Class for its own interests. The Precariat is on the whole totally dispossessed, and they live from pay cheque to pay cheque, with the loan sharking firms eating them in between.

The present recovery after the almost system collapse 0f 2007-8, has been nothing but “a mirage”, a statistical “recovery” propped by a series of quantitative easings and zero interest rates. The ownership class and the overseer class are doing extremely well, but the precariat class is barely surviving.

In foreign policy, the US, a hegemonic power, has become a reactionary force in order to maintain its world wide empire based on dollar indebtedness and exploitation of the rest of the world. Through its policy in the Middle East, it has lost Iran and now may lose Turkey, two large countries dominating the key strategic areas of the Afro-Eurasia. It is true, the US has gained  eastern Europe through the European Union and NATO, but Europe itself has become unstable.

In the Middle East, some claim that the US and Israel have created ISIS and Al-Qaeda  to destroy Syria and Iraq in order to get to Iran, and take total control of the Middle East and its natural resources. If Turkey switches to Eurasia, and a compromise is reached between Syria and Turkey, the US will lose the Middle East. The next shoe to drop will be Saudi Arabia because of its disastrous war in Yemen, as well as internal dissension.

Never before in its history has the US faced such complex problems as a dying economy  reflected in dying cities, dilapidated infrastructure, poor but costly education and health care; city violence could be a precursor to a general revolt.

The world is waiting with bated breath the results of the US presidential elections, The precariat class is flocking to Mr. Trump for salvation and the ownership class is in a panic. How the elections will turn out nobody knows, but if there is a financial collapse Trump would win massively. In that case, it is quite likely that martial law would be proclaimed and the elections postponed. Only time will tell.

Quo Vadis Gold?

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Gold is a symbol of power and truth, and yet it is suppressed. The reason gold is in jail is so that the dollar is  free to be the official currency of the world. It is not only essential that gold stay in jail, but that the dollar be convertible into gold at the lowest price possible. The Modus Operandi to keep gold suppressed is  called “paper shorting” of gold. Capping the price of gold has enabled the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates to near zero and to indulge in quantitative easing to prop up stock markets, bond markets and the economy without endangering the supremacy  of the dollar.

To keep gold suppressed is very expensive and limiting. Let me explain. Physical gold must be available at whatever price the paper shorts of gold set through their daily trades for those individuals, organizations, or countries who want physical gold. The cheaper the paper gold, the cheaper will be the physical price. So, countries like China, India, Russia, Iran, and others are accumulating gold at an incredibly cheap price. Gold is leaving the West and going to the rest of the world. Gold must be available for the dollar to be convertible. The point will be reached when gold will not be available at any given price and the dollar will lose its convertibility into gold; financial panic will ensue

Before gold availability is finally exhausted, the US policy is to destroy the economies of the rest of the world. Russia was first in the line of fire because of the Ukraine. The US engineered the collapse of the price of oil and the value of the ruble. They tried sanctions and that didn’t work because Russia is only getting stronger. They tried to destroy China by collapsing their stock market and so far the results have been inconclusive. However, they have been quite successful in destroying the economies of the Third World. By increasing the buying power of the dollar, they have increased the debt burden of the Third World, hence collapsing the price of all their commodities. The Third World has less money to buy manufactured goods from China and Europe, so China and Europe in turn slow down, which further collapses commodities. So the whole game becomes a vicious circle to the down side. Most Third World countries are in a depression. But gold availability to support the dollar is reaching the exhaustion point. In order to maintain dollar dominance, interest rates have to be increased.

The Federal Reserve has no choice to do this in order to be able to defend the dollar in the future, irrespective of what interest rate increases will do to stock or bond markets. The high yield bond market is already collapsing because liquidity is drying up. The official story is that the FED wants to normalize interest rates but in reality they want to create “Volcker Momentum*” and increase the interest rates to as high as they can go. Gold will rise because it will no longer be available at these low prices to support the dollar. Gold will go as high as it will go. To support the dollar, the interest rates will rise to as high they will have to go. These will be events that have no parallel in human history. Only time will tell.

 

*= Volcker momentum is my expression. Paul Volcker was a Fed Chairman from 1979 to 1987. He increased the interest rates to near 20%, so he could reduce the inflation rate to below 5% after the US went off the gold standard in 1971 under President Nixon. My thesis is that to support the dollar to be convertible to gold, gold price in dollars must be suppressed. Gold must be kept in jail. However, this is very costly, because Gold is leaving the West and going to the rest, China, India, etc. Soon, there will be no physical Gold at such cheap prices. Presently, Gold and Silver are very cheap, so the US must increase the interest rates to protect the dollar in the future. Hence, “Volcker Momentum”

Dollar vs. Gold II

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In my previous posts I stated that gold does not need any paper currency, but that the dollar needs gold. The dollar has to be convertible into gold, because the gold price world wide is quoted primarily in dollars, and that’s due to the dollar being the official currency of the world. Everything in the world is traded in dollars. Just imagine the power that the US possesses by owning the official currency of the world, so it goes without saying that the US will do anything in its power to retain that authority over the financial system of the world; it will even resort to war.

The key to financial world domination is not the petro-currency status of the dollar but its relationship to gold, Nature’s Money. The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944 made the dollar official currency of the world. The dollar was pegged at 35 dollars an ounce of gold, and the rest of the world’s currencies were pegged to the dollar. The US would keep the gold and print the dollars, while the rest of the world would keep the dollars in US Treasury Notes. The US had free use of their hard earned money, the perfect scam. General Charles de Gaulle immediately saw this for the scam that it was and took action. He exchanged the French dollar surplus for gold, as was allowed by the Breton-Woods Agreement. Run on gold began, in 1971, President Nixon closed the gold window. This is how the dollar became the “Petro” currency. Nixon told OPEC to increase the price of oil as much as they could but make sure it is traded in dollars. Surplus dollars flowed into US Treasuries, more than ever before, and the US got free breakfast, lunch, and dinner. This policy continues to this day…

The Crisis of 2007-8 was very severe. It nearly collapsed our entire economic system. Massive infusion of artificial money {printed dollars} only managed to prop up the system, and did not ultimately save it. The System barely meanders. A series of quantitative easing was introduced, QE I, QE 2, and QE 3. No real improvement. QE 4 is coming down the road. During the crisis, gold rose from around 250 dollars in 2001 to 1920 in 2011. Interest rates went down to almost zero. There was the danger that if the price of gold went any higher,  that dollar would not be convertible to gold. If that had happened, the Capitalist System would have collapsed. Something had to be done.  “Paper shorting” of precious metals was begun. The dollar can only have validity if it is convertible into gold.  Presently, the convertibility of dollars into gold has a severe price. Dollar surplus countries and individuals are buying gold on the cheap.

Gold, presently, is in backwardation. Individuals and countries are paying higher prices for gold delivery now than in the future. Shortages of gold availability are coming. The price of gold may sky rocket over night. By shorting paper gold the monetary policy of the US is extremely tight. It is in essence destroying the economy of the world. Increasing interest rates is sheer lunacy. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium will demand their rightful value which is precious. They will be not be available in any currency at any moment. The rush for Nature’s Money, gold, will be the beginning of the end of the Capitalist System, as was the rush for gold the beginning of the Capitalist System, and when Christopher Columbus first “discovered” the “New World”. If the World survives, a totally new age will begin. Only time will tell.

How much is the dollar really worth?

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The dollar is a fiat currency. It is created out of thin air through debt. A person goes to the bank and wants to borrow 10,000 dollars and if the borrower meets the criteria of paying back the sum plus interest agreed on, the bank issues a cheque of 10,000 dollars or direct deposits the amount to his account. Money has been created out of nothing to enslave that person for 10,000 dollars which he must now pay back at a certain interest rate for a specific period of time. In other words, he sells his labour, his life force, to pay the debt. He is exploited, he is a slave. This is the essence of capitalism, and the fiat currency is an instrument of enslavement.

Initially, the dollar was a gold backed currency as were other world currencies. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, early in his presidency devalued gold from 20.67 dollars an ounce to 35 dollars an ounce. Also, he made it illegal for Americans to own gold, unless it was in a jewelry form of 18 karats or less. The Bretton-Woods Convention made the dollar the Reserve Currency of the World. The US would keep the gold and the rest of the world would keep the dollars. Other central banks could exchange dollars for gold at 35 dollars an ounce. Gold, however, would be stored in the US and some would be stored in London. This arrangement was propped up by fear that “the Communists” would take over if the gold was not stored in the US. Publicity  made Fort Knox, Kentucky, infamous as the storage place  for the world’s non-communist gold. General Charles de Gaulle, President of France, was not fooled. He realized it was the perfect scam. He had never trusted the Anglo-Americans. He knew how perfidious they were during the Second World War II. The Anglo-Americans hated him, and of course, he reciprocated. He withdrew France from N.A.T.O. and sent French warships to retrieve French gold from the US. Other European countries followed. A run on gold followed…

The gold drain from the US followed. President Nixon closed the Gold window. This closure was permanent, contrary to the President’s statement that  it was temporary. The US was running trade deficits and the Vietnam War was draining the country of its real wealth, gold. The dollar paper drainage was no big deal, because it was only paper. The Arab oil embargo saved the dollar and the US. The US told the oil producers to increase the price of oil but just have it denominated in dollars. The excess dollars of the world poured into US treasuries and helped finance government operation. The decade of 1970’s showcased growth throughout the world but with inflation. Gold was allowed to reach its equilibrium value of 850 dollars an ounce. Silver, taken out of circulation in 1965, went to 50 dollars an ounce in 1979-80. Interest rates were high because demand for money was high. Demand for real money, gold and silver, was high. But the dollar was losing value. In 1969, one could get four Swiss Francs for one dollar, but in 1979-80 period, the Swiss Franc was on parity with the dollar.

President Carter appointed Paul Volcker Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. The Prime Rate went to almost twenty percent. The price of precious metals collapsed and value of the dollar rose. Money from all over the world poured into the US. By 1992, the USSR and communism had disappeared in Europe. The end of history was proclaimed. The plunder of the ex-USSR and Eastern Europe, along with the rest of the world began with increasing tempo. A unipolar world of ten years duration was achieved. In Nature, when one extreme is reached, opposite forces start building momentum, and new forces started brewing on the horizon…

Vladimir Putin was appointed Prime Minister of Russia in 2000, and the economic decay started in the first decade of the New Millennium in the West. It is now worsening and encompassing the entire world. The central player in all this has been the dollar. It has no intrinsic value like gold, land or water, but is the instrument of US power. The US wants to maintain that power come hell or high water, and in order to maintain it, debt in dollar terms has to grow. The IMF and World Bank, along with other private organizations, are working overtime to trap more and more countries into unsustainable debt and milk them for all they are worth. This is the MODUS OPERANDI of capitalism…

But opposing forces are rising, and the de-dollarization of the world has began. The World is trying to dis-infect itself from the dollar. Very interesting and dangerous times are approaching. But the US will not willingly give up its instrument of power. It is negotiating trade deals with Europe, South America, and South East Asia to insure the dollar to be the supreme currency. It is confronting China in the South China Sea, but at the same time, it is enticing  it to join the IMF arrangement of Special Drawing Right Currency. The US wants the China to row the dollar-SDR boat, and the US would steer it. Whether China falls for it or not remains to be seen. China, Russia, Brazil, Iran, and other countries that have backbone are trading amongst themselves in their own currencies. The river of history is flowing and it cannot be reversed.

How much is the dollar really worth? Nothing. It is merely an instrument of power, intimidation, and war, like aircraft carriers. And history will be unkind to both. Only time will tell.

The bullshit of the Fed raising or not raising rates.

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It is amazing how the whole world is awaiting the Fed decision. Economic decisions of great importance will be made in the economy of the world that will affect countries and millions of people. It is tragic that a group of individuals of average intelligence, who are unelected ,hold the fate of the world in their hands. Other “lesser” individuals study their every move. Economically speaking, the Fed is considered to be the “Fountain of Wisdom”; in actual fact it is a “Fountain of Nonsense”.

The “Great Recession” lasted from 2007 to 2009. The economic system was on the verge of collapse. Wall Street money centered banks were failing. A bazooka was used to save it. The Federal Reserve introduced a near zero interest policy and quantitative easing. Banks had to be saved and after all,that is the primary function of the Central Bank. That price stability and employment are primary functions of the Fed is nothing but a façade. The essence of finance capitalism is  banking, hence, the Federal Reserve is its guardian. It will do anything to save it, including financing wars and overthrowing governments. It must protect and protect the “Reserve Status of the dollar”.

No recovery occurred in 2009. Growth in the US is impossible because the energy entering the US economic system is decreasing, but the energy needed to maintain its internal and external obligation is increasing. This sitation is sustainable only because the dollar is the “Official Currency of the World”. The dollar position must be maintained at all costs, and that is the real function of the Federal Reserve.

There is no recovery in 2015. Third World countries are  or are entering hyperinflationary depression. Their currencies are collapsing vis a vis the dollar and gold. The prices of various commodities are in free fall. Their debt burden in dollars has become unbearable because the ever increasing export commodities are earning them less and less dollars. As a result, the export of manufactured goods is also in free fall. The world’s economy is in severe contraction, possibly entering a severe depression. The world’s stock markets are also in free fall. Interest rates cannot go up naturally or be raised by the central bank. The velocity of money is also in free fall. The only time interest rates will rise will be to protect the dollar. This will happen when the world starts to abandon the dollar in earnest. There has been no recovery and there will never be one until this economic system is radically altered or replaced by something totally new. Only time will tell.