Category Archives: syria

Turkey, the Geo-Strategic Pivot of History

To paraphrase Napoleon: “Geography is destiny; control Constantinople, control the world.” This was true in the time of Napoleon, and it is even more true today.

Turkey was one of the most faithful allies of the US. It helped the US in the Korean War, 1950-53. A NATO member since 1950. To whatever the US wanted, Turkey said yes. Turkish labour helped rebuild post war West Germany. But Turkey was taken for granted by the West, essentially a colonial entity in possession of the most geo-strategic real estate in the world…

How things change. Today, the US and Turkey are in confrontation mode. Until July 15, 2016, Turkey embraced the US- Israeli view of Syria; Assad must go, because Assad would not buckle. There was a confrontation with Russia. A Russian plane was shot over Syria by a Turkish jet. A Russian ambassador was assassinated in Turkey. Trade sanctions were imposed on Turkey, and Russian tourists boycotted it. The US was hoping for an irrevocable confrontation between Russia and Turkey. A coup d’état against Erdogan, if successful, would make this confrontation with Russia permanent. This confrontation would re-enforce the Wall of Enmity which the US is building from the Baltic, the Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, India, yes India through the Straits of Malacca to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. If the coup d’etat had been successful, Russia would have been eliminated from Middle East involvement.

But the coup did not succeed, possibly with Russian help. Erdogan apologized to Putin, and relations normalized. Slowly, rapprochement between Turkey and Russia became friendly. And then suddenly, three countries: Iran, Turkey, and Russia synchronized their Middle East policy especially in regards to Syria and Lebanon and Hezbollah. So, now, instead of Russian disarray, one has US-Israeli-Saudi disarray.

How will things play out? World events cannot be taken in isolation. The Wall of Enmity has been breached in two places: the Ukraine and Turkey. The Wall of Enmity in North East Asia is stable, because the tension is high.

The situation in the Ukraine is different because of the German situation. Germany is entering a period of uncertainty. Whoever and under what circumstances the next German government is formed, the German people will demand independence, denuclearization, and the end of US military occupation. The Germans are increasingly yearning for an independent foreign policy. The US will try to prevent a German exodus by increasing tensions and the chances of war in the Ukraine and blaming Russia as the aggressor.

Turkey is the key geostrategic pivot of History. The Turks are a proud, nationalistic people. Under Erdogan, they have had the first truly independent foreign policy since the time of Kemal Ataturk. They will not buckle to Western pressure. They do not care for the EU. By being independent and moving closer to Eurasia, Turkey will help reduce or even eliminate Western influence in the Middle East. Turkey will withdraw from NATO very slowly and the US will not push. If Turkey withdraws, NATO unravels. That is the one thing the US does not want.

Another attempt at a coup d’état cannot be excluded.

 

 

 

 

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Very Short Observations IV

The knowledge is intentionally withheld that the EU nations use dollars, not euros, in trade among themselves, as well as with other nations. It is amazing and true. So, the dollar is not only the petro-dollar, but the official currency of international trade. The most important world trade is in oil, and until now, it has been traded in dollars. Most international debt is also denominated in dollars. The dollar is used as the chief instrument of enforcing sanctions against nations who do not follow US policy. The dollar is the Thunder Bolt of Zeus that I mentioned in my earlier posts from 2015-16.

But the exceptionality of this currency which makes the US the exceptional nation may be coming to an end. China will be trading oil in the yuan, convertible to gold. Oil nations will be able to sell their oil for the yuan on the Shanghai Exchange, avoiding dollars. The yuan will be freely exchangeable for gold. Many oil nations will flock to the “Petro-Yuan”. This new development is of great geo-economic significance. Venezuela, for instance, would be able to sell its heavy crude from Lake Maracaibo for yuan. How the US will react to this challenge remains to be revealed. Will the US react aggressively to China?

A commodity that is necessary for all life on Earth is water. Mother Nature provides us water free of charge. Fortunate are those nations or people who have an abundance of it. Those nations who feel they are powerful enough are willing to go to war to get it. The countries of the Mediterranean basin that have an abundance of water are the new republics of the former Yugoslavia. Other countries are Turkey, Lebanon, and possibly Syria because of the two rivers that flow through North East Syria from Turkey: the Euphrates and the Tigris, which touches Syria as it leaves Turkey and enters Iraq.

Countries that are water poor: Libya and Israel. Libya was intentionally destroyed in 2011, killing and sodomizing its leader, Gaddafi, in order to plunder its resources, especially its oil. Gaddafi wanted a gold dinar for all of Africa. Israel, a water-poor yet highly advanced country, whose water needs are increasing daily, needs a source of free water. Presently, Israel imports about 50% of its fresh water from Turkey. If a confrontation develops between Israel and Turkey, in the future, Turkey could shut off its water exports to Israel. De-salination is an inadequate substitute; it is also very expensive.

And so Lebanon beckons. To get the waters of Lebanon, war is inevitable. Hezbollah, whether one likes it or not, is the guardian of Lebanese independence vis a vis Israel, so war is inevitable. Israel experienced Hezbollah in 2006 war. Hezbollah is no joke.

Saudi Arabia is not a country in the normal sense of the word, because it is owned by 50,000 to 100,000 royals who take most of its oil wealth for their own personal use. But the Saudis are now in trouble. They’re losing their war in Yemen. Oil revenues are down. A confrontation with Iran looms in the distance. Internal dissension exists. The situation in the Saudi Arabia is precarious. They have pushed themselves into a Zugzwang situation. An alliance with Israel and the dismissal of the Lebanese prime minister are possibly related. The official dogma: Hezbollah and Iran have become mortal enemies of Israel and the Saudis. Big war is inevitable for water, oil, and hegemony of the Middle East and the world. The US and NATO will side with the Saudis and Israel, unconditionally; most of the rest of the world will side with the Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Iran. Will this war turn nuclear? Possibly!

The Ukraine cannot be ignored; it is on the verge of collapse. The Ukraine’s internal and external policies are totally absurd. For example, certain nationalists want to break diplomatic relations with Russia. Also, they are buying expensive  anthracite hard coal from the US rather than cheaper and better quality coal from Russia or Donbass for its power plants; Ukrainians will be freezing this winter! Also they are trying to mpose the Ukrainian language on minorities such as Hungarians and Russians. Kiev will gamble war in order to save itself; it will not work.

Contrary to Main Stream Media propaganda, the US economy is not doing well. Both, debt and stocks are precariously high. The EU not much better; just ask the Greeks.

Truly, a very precarious time; very unique in history!

Short Observations II

The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

German Election Results?

Mutter Merkel did not do too well. As a senior persona and running for her 4th term , she and her CDU should have gotten at least 40% or more, so she could have formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party as in the past; a clear majority would have been best. Germans are restless because of migrants and the stern Russophobia of her government.

The German media tried some Russian interference to discredit the AfD, but it did not work. Alternativa fur Duetschland did well, especially in former East Germany. SPD did poorly. Martin Schultz, the leader, said that the party will go into opposition. Smart move. Merkel will have to court the Free Democratic Party (right), Der Linke (left), and the Greens (Environmentalists).

SDP and AfD will be the opposition. They will want change to German economic and foreign policy. Despite being a wealthy country, Germany has 8 million people living in poverty, out of a population of 84 million. The status quo will no longer do. Even coalition partners will want change.

The Germans want change, and change they will get. Change on the migration policy, on Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea. The opposition will demand that sanctions against Russia be cancelled. The opposition will demand removal of nuclear weapons from the country and a Modus Vivendi with Russia. Germany will move to neutrality. France, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece,and Slovenia will join. Later, all of Europe will go neutral a la Switzerland. Britain will stay faithful to the US.

This massive shift will affect the policy of Africa and Latin America. The role of the dollar and the gold will be reversed. It will be very interesting.

Syria and the Third World War

Assad presently has the upper hand in the Syrian War. It appears that ISIS maybe on the run. The US still has plans to topple Assad and partition Syria. The US is looking for options though, and has decided to play the Kurdish card in North East Syria along the Euphrates River. As expected, the Turks are very upset.

The US is in Zugzwang with respect to Syria. The US was hoping that so called ‘ Moderate Terrorists’ would topple Assad. It did not work. The US is still using ISIS covertly and Israel is supporting them occultly. That is not enough. Syria and Assad are getting stronger and stronger daily.

So, what to do? The US would like to entice NATO to overthrow Assad. A unified NATO attack via Turkey or Jordan or from both areas would  possibly be a winning move. An attack, of let us say, 200,000 NATO troops under US command would do the job. Possibly? The “official reason” for an invasion would be to fight ISIS; the real reason would be to partition Syria and destroy Assad.

Would Syria and its allies buckle under NATO pressure?  Not likely, but war would widen. Turkey would leave NATO and not participate against Syria. Israel would enter the fray. Palestinians would rise up. Egypt would militarize the Sinai. The Saudi dynasty, Jordanian monarchy, and Gulf states would be overthrown; the people of these monarchies would side with Syria.

The price of oil would skyrocket. The dollar would be rejected as a payment. Western economies would collapse. The US would be caught in Zugzwang. Would the US go nuclear, possibly? Is the Third World War inevitable?

 

Syria, Turkey, Kurds, Israel, and the US.

The Syrian war is entering a critical phase. Alliances are shifting but the goal has not and the goal is this: Partition Syria and remove Assad. The original proxy army of the US and Israel has not been too successful of late, but one cannot dismiss them. ISIS has proven that it has many lives; moderates and extremists.

The US support for ISIS is well known in the Middle East as is Israeli. Further cooperation will not bear much fruit. The US is betting now on the Kurds. If the Kurds obtain an autonomous area in the North-East of Syria, the area could become an anchor of US power in Syria and the rest of the Middle East.

The problem is Turkey. Turkey will not tolerate any autonomous region in Syria that is Kurdish, so the US finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Turkey has been a faithful ally of the US since right after the Second World War. Also, Turkey has been a close friend of Israel. Most of the fresh water that Israel needs comes from Turkey. All three countries, US, Turkey, and Israel were, and possibly still are, supporters of ISIS.

The confrontation is increasing between Turkey and the US. Presently, Turkey is sitting on the fence. It is anchored in the West but wants to break free. This is a dilemma of historic proportions. If and when it occurs it will be a geo -strategically earth shaking event. If it happens, the US will be forced to leave Incerlik airbase. It is possible that diplomatic relations will be severed a la Iran.

Syria will shape the alliances of the region for years to come. Turkey has no choice but to side with Syria. This will guarantee Syrian unity and independence. The Kurds will have autonomy within a Syrian state. The US and Israel oppose such an arrangement, so more war is inevitable.

If this re-arrangement of alliances takes place, the end result will be as follows: Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Turkey will be backed by Russia and the opposing forces will be composed of ISIS, Peshmerga of Kurdistan National Government, the Saudis, the Gulf States, and Israel backed by the US.

If the US side wins though, the result will be as follows: Syria and Lebanon will be partitioned and Assad will be gone; water will flow to Israel from the Litani and Euphrates rivers; gas and oil will flow from the Gulf to Europe, decreasing EU dependence on Russian gas; a Kurdish republic will be established in N. E. Syria; Turkey and Iran will be weakened and, most important, Russia will be out of the Middle East.

However, if Syria wins, the following will happen: Syria stays united and much stronger under Assad; Turkey joins the East and its power is enhanced; Iranian power is enhanced as it becomes dominant in Iraq and Yemen and the Gulf; and most importantly, the Saudi dynasty will collapse, the US will lose the Middle East; Israel becomes totally isolated, and the Palestinians may rise up and win.

Whether the US will allow itself to be kicked out of the Middle East without a war remains to be seen.

North Korea, what is next?

Tension is building in the Korean Peninsula. The US threatens to attack North Korea because of missile tests. North Korea, or any other country for that matter, has the right to test their missiles. So North Korea has been testing its missiles. The response must be, so what?

North Korea is isolated by the West and not by the rest of the world. So, western sanctions are not life threatening. It is very independent where as South Korea, more developed and relatively prosperous, is not. South Korea is occupied by the US. The US has military bases there, and 28,000 troops on the border with North Korea. Also, anti-Americanism is rather well developed in South Korea.

President Trump has said that if China does not take care of North Korea, the US will. This is bluster. If the US attacks, the North Koreans would fight back. The US just tested MOAB, the mother of all bombs, in Afghanistan. A powerful weapon, but North Koreans are showing no fear.  Why? In war, North Korea would destroy US forces there. Seoul would be wiped out. South Korea would be massively damaged. The US would have to go nuclear. North Korea would respond in kind, hitting Japan and US forces there. China would interfere. Nobody would win. A destructive stalemate would develop. Three countries would be destroyed: North and South Korea, possibly Japan. Also, US forces in Korea would be massively damaged or destroyed. Korea is a sideshow. Lots of thunder and very little rain. The real action will be the Ukraine, Syria-Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and any other hot spot that develops.

It is quite possible that the US would lose its teeth and lower jaw in total war with North Korea. Also, South Korea may rebel against US occupation. It would be truly ironic, if South Korea bolts. There are many ironies in History.