Category Archives: Iraq

Syrian War II

The ISIS stage of the Syrian war is changing; the US approach is changing. In addition to supporting ISIS it has also thrown its support behind the Kurds of Syria and Iraq. The plan to partition Syria and Lebanon has not changed. The occult plan to remove Assad and Partition Syria should have been accomplished by the end of 2014 but plans did not pan out; even the poison gas trick did not work.

The plan to remove Assad and to implement “Partition Syria” is still the goal, except it now has a sense of urgency. Assad is still in power and the Syrian Army is getting stronger. Assad is resilient and tough like his father Hafez was. Hafez would not buckle under US pressure and recognize the State of Israel, as did Egypt under Anvar Al Sadat and Jordan in the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter. Lebanon would also not recognize Israel. By recognizing Israel, Anwar Al Sadat paid with his life. He was assassinated in 1979.

Israel thought it could partition Lebanon by itself, and get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River. Israel, like any other state, is not viable without an abundance of fresh water, and their attempt did not succeed. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 2006 failed. Hesbollah gave Israel a very bloody nose. Israel sustained heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. The US and Israel decided to dismember Syria by proxy and so the Islamic State, ISIS, was created. The Syrian war started in earnest in 2011, the year that Gaddafi of Libya was impaled and killed. Remember what Hillary said: “We came, we saw, and he died. Ha! Ha !” Sick mind. Putting a demented twist on Caesar’s immortal words: Vene, Vidi, Vici.

By 2013, they blamed Assad for a chemical attack; it didn’t work. By 2014, the slogan was: Assad must go. Assad did not go. Russian support of Syria increased as did Iranian and that of Hesbollah of Lebanon. With their help, Assad was able to liberate the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, as well as Aleppo. Israel would bomb the Syrian Army position in support of ISIS. Even during so called peace time, prior to 2011, Israeli jets would regularly fly over Damascus and the summer residence of the President of Syria; Syria would not respond.

The situation today is very critical. The US has realized that the only way to partition Syria is to establish an independent Kurdistan out of North East Syria and North East Iraq. The US has forces in Iraq not to help Iraq fight ISIS but to control it and to delay its victory over ISIS. Independent Iraq would help Assad and the US wants to prevent that; the Iraqis know that, Especially Muqtada al Sader and the Shias. The Syrian war is heating up. Turkey will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Severe estrangement is developing between US and Turkey and Turkey will probably leave NATO and abandon the US.

The US shot down a Syrian jet over Syria, an independent state and member of UN. In all honesty, this is a violation of International law. Syria is not an enemy of the US, nor has Syria asked for US help. Also, Syria is not a threat to US security. The actions of the US also violates the morals and ethics of the Universe. There is no justification for such actions except raw power. If the US persists in such actions, there will be a reaction. Remember the Third Law of Motion: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia will strengthen Syrian air defenses and US planes and drones will start falling from the sky a la Vietnam War. It is possible that Karma is based on the Third Law of Motion. Iran will also increase its help to Syria.

If the Kurds proclaim their independence with US help, Turkey will enter the fray on the side of Syria. If that happens, the US will lose. Would the US bomb Turkey? Possibly, but not likely. However, again, anything is possible.

Increased Iranian help, let us say, 200,000 Iranian Troops or Irano-Turkish combination of 300,000 troops would arouse US-Israeli-British ire and a huge Middle East War would begin. The war would engulf Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Yemen. The Saudi dynasty and Jordanian monarchy would collapse. The petro dollar would be finished. Oil prices would skyrocket. The EU and the US would enter into super depression. The rest of the world would  not be any better. However, countries connected by land from the Pacific- Indian Ocean to the Atlantic would start to coalesce. Afro-Eurasia would start coalescing. The US and the UK would be excluded.

The plan of the US is partition of Syria via Kurdistan which would become an ally of Israel, supplying it with precious fresh water from the Euphrates as well as oil. The second reason is the humiliating defeat of Russia and its’ eviction from the Middle East. The third reason is the destruction and conquest of Iran, the enemy of Israel and Saudis. By controlling Iran, the US would be able to control the Persian Gulf. It also would enable the US to control Central Asia. Just look the geography of the area.  Extra big war is in the works in the Middle East which may go nuclear.

Syria, Turkey, Kurds, Israel, and the US.

The Syrian war is entering a critical phase. Alliances are shifting but the goal has not and the goal is this: Partition Syria and remove Assad. The original proxy army of the US and Israel has not been too successful of late, but one cannot dismiss them. ISIS has proven that it has many lives; moderates and extremists.

The US support for ISIS is well known in the Middle East as is Israeli. Further cooperation will not bear much fruit. The US is betting now on the Kurds. If the Kurds obtain an autonomous area in the North-East of Syria, the area could become an anchor of US power in Syria and the rest of the Middle East.

The problem is Turkey. Turkey will not tolerate any autonomous region in Syria that is Kurdish, so the US finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Turkey has been a faithful ally of the US since right after the Second World War. Also, Turkey has been a close friend of Israel. Most of the fresh water that Israel needs comes from Turkey. All three countries, US, Turkey, and Israel were, and possibly still are, supporters of ISIS.

The confrontation is increasing between Turkey and the US. Presently, Turkey is sitting on the fence. It is anchored in the West but wants to break free. This is a dilemma of historic proportions. If and when it occurs it will be a geo -strategically earth shaking event. If it happens, the US will be forced to leave Incerlik airbase. It is possible that diplomatic relations will be severed a la Iran.

Syria will shape the alliances of the region for years to come. Turkey has no choice but to side with Syria. This will guarantee Syrian unity and independence. The Kurds will have autonomy within a Syrian state. The US and Israel oppose such an arrangement, so more war is inevitable.

If this re-arrangement of alliances takes place, the end result will be as follows: Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Turkey will be backed by Russia and the opposing forces will be composed of ISIS, Peshmerga of Kurdistan National Government, the Saudis, the Gulf States, and Israel backed by the US.

If the US side wins though, the result will be as follows: Syria and Lebanon will be partitioned and Assad will be gone; water will flow to Israel from the Litani and Euphrates rivers; gas and oil will flow from the Gulf to Europe, decreasing EU dependence on Russian gas; a Kurdish republic will be established in N. E. Syria; Turkey and Iran will be weakened and, most important, Russia will be out of the Middle East.

However, if Syria wins, the following will happen: Syria stays united and much stronger under Assad; Turkey joins the East and its power is enhanced; Iranian power is enhanced as it becomes dominant in Iraq and Yemen and the Gulf; and most importantly, the Saudi dynasty will collapse, the US will lose the Middle East; Israel becomes totally isolated, and the Palestinians may rise up and win.

Whether the US will allow itself to be kicked out of the Middle East without a war remains to be seen.

North Korea, what is next?

Tension is building in the Korean Peninsula. The US threatens to attack North Korea because of missile tests. North Korea, or any other country for that matter, has the right to test their missiles. So North Korea has been testing its missiles. The response must be, so what?

North Korea is isolated by the West and not by the rest of the world. So, western sanctions are not life threatening. It is very independent where as South Korea, more developed and relatively prosperous, is not. South Korea is occupied by the US. The US has military bases there, and 28,000 troops on the border with North Korea. Also, anti-Americanism is rather well developed in South Korea.

President Trump has said that if China does not take care of North Korea, the US will. This is bluster. If the US attacks, the North Koreans would fight back. The US just tested MOAB, the mother of all bombs, in Afghanistan. A powerful weapon, but North Koreans are showing no fear.  Why? In war, North Korea would destroy US forces there. Seoul would be wiped out. South Korea would be massively damaged. The US would have to go nuclear. North Korea would respond in kind, hitting Japan and US forces there. China would interfere. Nobody would win. A destructive stalemate would develop. Three countries would be destroyed: North and South Korea, possibly Japan. Also, US forces in Korea would be massively damaged or destroyed. Korea is a sideshow. Lots of thunder and very little rain. The real action will be the Ukraine, Syria-Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and any other hot spot that develops.

It is quite possible that the US would lose its teeth and lower jaw in total war with North Korea. Also, South Korea may rebel against US occupation. It would be truly ironic, if South Korea bolts. There are many ironies in History.

How Will Syria Turn Out?

Peaceful resolution of Syria is not Likely. Larger war is inevitable. The US has just upped the ante. To show to the World that America is great again, Trump wants to win in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen, or where ever else conflicts start.

Of all the conflicts listed, Syria is the most critical, followed by the Ukraine. Bombing Syria for an unproven gas attack by Assad is a serious escalation. No investigation to prove who did it, just a claim without facts that Assad did it. A gas attack by ISIS or Al Nusra and then blaming Assad is more likely what happened. By this action the US seeks the removal of Assad and to partition Syria, which would immensely benefit Israel and possibly, the Kurds; Turkey would be a loser.

According to the Third Law of Motion: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Assad will be reinforced by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Iran might be willing to commit 50,000 troops or more and the Persians are tough fighters. To counter the Iranians, the US would be forced to commit an equivalent amount of troops. Would Congress allow this? Very likely. Why? Because Congress considers Iran an enemy of Israel, therefore, automatically an enemy of the US. Israel would attack Syria in order to fight the Iranians. Israel is already attacking Syria. Recently, Israel lost a plane over Syria. Hezbollah would join on a much larger scale than now in order to fight Israel.

Turkey is the wild card. If the US commits a large number of troops and allies itself with the Kurds, Turkey will expel the US from Incerlik and join Assad. The game would then be over. Will Turkey do that remains to be seen.

Another card that the US could play and will play is the Ukraine. The US would entice the Ukraine to attack Donbas, and Russia would be faced with two wars. For the Ukraine, Donbas is a hard nut to crack; it would lose all its teeth and lower jaw.

Iraq must also be considered as a very important factor. Iraq has a chance to be very powerful and an ally of Iran and Syria. The US is not eager for Iraq to take control of Mosul. If ISIS loses Mosul, the US would lose control of Iraq. Muqtada Al Sadar, the Iraqi Shia leader, will not allow any US presence in Iraq.  Iraq will also help Syria.

Most likely the Syrian war will expand. The US may try to go for the kill with Israeli and Kurdish help. Turkish help would be better but may not be available. One thing is certain: big war is coming to the Middle East, and the winners are unknown at this time.

The losers could be the occult participants in the Syrian war. They have greatest interest in destroying the Syrian state and Assad.

Large Middle East War is inevitable

There are different wars going on in the Middle East, all of them more or less going on at the same time. The purpose of the war in Syria is to partition it. The facade reason is that the “killer dictator” Assad must go. If Syria is partitioned into a Kurdish North East where the Euphrates flows, then water could be pumped to water-starved Israel by land and by sea. ISIS has been losing in Syria, although the final word has yet to be spoken. Whoever started ISIS is an enigma. Selling oil and financial transactions via SWIFT, (the Society for World-wide International Financial Transactions controlled by Federal Reserve Bank of New York), are not impeded by the US. Turkey is in Syria to prevent the creation of a Kurdish State, which would of course be a threat to its’ existence. Turkey initially supported ISIS because it felt it could occupy Syria’s Kurdish region but Erdogan switched after the coup d’état.

Turkey, despite being a NATO member, is being destabilized. South East Turkey, predominantly Kurdish, would be split to join the Kurdish areas of Syria, Iraq, and Iran into a greater Kurdistan which would then be friendly to Israel. Israel would then have an abundance of cheap water, oil, and gas. Turkey knows this. It is switching to Assad’s Syria, Iran, and Russia. A quiet alliance is forming between Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. The “One Belt, One Road” policy of China will go through Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, via the Balkans into Europe. The US is also quietly organizing an Arab anti-Iran alliance that is friendly to Israel,  composed of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia.

The partitioning of Iraq was in the cards of the West: the Sunni West around Ramadi, the Shia south from Baghdad to Basra, and the Kurdish north east around Kirkuk; possibly Mosul as well.

Lebanon would also be destroyed and Israel would get the water of the Litani River. So far, Israel has not been successful.

The Yemeni-Saudi war is not going too well. The Houthis are holding their own against the Saudis. It is quite likely that the Yemeni war will lead to a Saudi demise.

For all the problems in the Middle East, the US and Israel are blaming Iran as the major culprit. Because of Iranian missile testing, (which is not a violation of Nuclear Agreement that US has signed), the US and Israel are threatening Iran.

If the US and Israel attack Iran, Iran will respond by closing the Persian Gulf. the price of oil would go sky high. There would be a shortage of oil world wide. Iran would hit Israel with missiles. If Israel goes nuclear, Iran would try to destroy the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev desert. If Israel persisted with nuclear attack, Pakistan would lend Iran several nuclear bombs to hit Israel in return and a world wide chain reaction would follow resulting in a total collapse of many regions of the world.

Let us hope this does not happen. Only time will tell.

The significance of India-Pakistan animosity in the world of geo-politics

When India achieved independence from Britain in 1947, it split along the religious line: the Hindu India and Islamic Pakistan. The split was encouraged by the Anglo-Americans. The British did not like Mahatma  Gandhi or Jawarhal Nehru, and preferred Muhammad Ali Jinna, the founder of modern Pakistan.

When the split occurred, Hindu India, a much bigger country, ended up with Jammu Kashmir, a  beautiful Himalayan valley populated mainly by the Muslims, but ruled by a Hindu who sided with Hindu India. The fight over Kashmir persists to this day and will persist into the future.

Both Pakistan and India are multi-ethnic. In 1971, Pakistan split into West Pakistan, a larger region west of India, and East Pakistan, east of India, the so called Bengal. Its new name is Bangla Desh, land of Bengalis. Bitter war was fought in East Pakistan by West Pakistan to keep  East Pakistan in union with West Pakistan. Three million Bengalis lost their lives. Under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, the daughter of Nehru, India helped East Pakistan to become independent. The US sided with West Pakistan, and President Nixon sent the 7th Fleet from the western Pacific into the Bay of Bengal to intimidate the Indians. It did not work, as the Soviet Union sided with India. In December of 1961, Russia sided with India over the annexation of Portuguese Goa, while the US and Britain sided with Portugal. India considered Russia an “all weather friend”. How things change!

India is much bigger with a population of over 1.25 billion people and land area of around 1.2 million square miles. Pakistan, on the other hand, is much smaller with a population of over 200 million and a land area of around 300,000 square miles. Strategically speaking, Pakistan is holding more pivotal connections of Asia. Pakistan borders China on the North-East, India on the East, Afghanistan on North-West, Iran on the West, and the Indian Ocean on the South. India is considered a subcontinent of Asia jutting out to the Indian Ocean. Its land borders are Nepal, China in the North, Bangla Desh, Mayanmar to the East, Pakistan to the West.

Pakistan has a strategic relationship with China and a subservient role vis a vis the US. India has a rather cool relationship with China because of its’ border disputes in the Himalayas, a warming relationship with the US, and a geostrategic relationship with Russia.

As China enters the global stage, it is developing trade routes with South-West Asia and Europe via Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans and into Europe, and if Turkey achieves rapprochement with Russia, the process will accelerate. Also, Pakistan is a transit country enabling the US to invade Afghanistan, maintain military operations against the Taliban, and control the opium trade, a highly profitable enterprise that helps maintain the dollar as the Reserve Currency of the world. It is self-evident that Pakistan is extremely important, geo -strategically speaking, to US and China; it is also a nuclear power.

As mentioned, India is a large and important country of the Asian Subcontinent and the center of Hindu Civilization. It has had a very independent foreign policy, first as the co- founding member  of the Non-Aligned Movement, and now as the co-founding member of BRICS, { Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the Republic of South Africa.) It is a nuclear power, and the 6th or the 7th economic power of the world.

India is drifting West, buying high tech weapons from Israel, Rafale jet fighters from France. It is entering some sort of military basing arrangements with the US which has never happened before. US wants India to be a keystone in the Wall of Enmity that the US is building from the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Black Sea, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Philippines, Japan to South Korea. The Wall would hem in Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia. The gate keeper with the keys would be the US.

If India joins the Wall of Enmity though, it would lose its privileged geostrategic relationship with Russia, and its moral influence in the world. It would also lose its influence in BRICS, and would never be able to participate in the Silk Roads that China and other countries are building. India would become the odd man out on the Afro-Eurasian land mass. India, most likely, will not join the Wall of Enmity. However, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Pakistan, on the other hand, would like to break out from US subservience. It has sent feelers to Russia. Russia and Pakistan will hold some kind of military exercises very soon. India is upset, understandably so, but India should understand that if it has the right to choose its partners, then so do other countries.

Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing, as more and more of its’ countries are abandoning the strict subservience which the US dictates. They are using their own currencies in two way trade, thereby avoiding the dollar and trade is growing amongst them  as a result. India, Pakistan, Iran, and Venezuela want to join the Shanghai Co-operation Organization. Other countries are also trying to re-assert their independence: Turkey, Philippines, Japan, plus France, Germany, and Italy are in the game.

The animosity between India and Pakistan might impede the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia. An India connected to the West would not be interested in Afro-Eurasian coalescence and a geo-strategic relationship with Russia. Pakistan, on the other hand, because of its geo-strategic position would enhance the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia especially if it joins the Shanghai Co-operation Organization and BRICS, minus India, and possibly, Brazil. So history is implying that with or without India, Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing. Only time will tell.

 

Is the US facing the same problems as Third Century Rome?

The world, but particularly the US, is entering a period of great uncertainty, as did Rome in the third century AD. There were external threats and internal instability. Inflation was destroying the internal fabric. The coinage was diluted of its precious metals, silver and gold. People lost faith in its institutions, its army and its emperors. Through such inflation, the people were getting poorer. The longevity of its emperors was very short after the assassination of the Emperor Alexander Severus in 235 AD  The Empire fragmented and was in danger of collapsing. Two external threats were ever present: the Tribes of Northern and Eastern Europe were pressing on the Empire and in the East, there were Persian threats. Three emperors lost wars with Persia, and one, Emperor Valerian, was even captured by the Persians in 260 AD through a ruse.

The 42nd Emperor Claudius Gothicus, (268-270), stabilized the frontiers by defeating the Alemani and the Goths, but unfortunately, died of some kind of infection.  The 51st Emperor Deocletian, (284-305), further strengthened the Empire by reducing inflation, further stabilizing the frontiers, and introducing tetrarchy to government. Tetrarchy is four person rule.  Deoclitian split the administration into a Western Empire centered in Rome, and an Eastern Empire centered in the future city of Constantinople to be founded by Emperor Constantine the Great in 330 AD. When the Western Empire fell in 476 AD, the Eastern Empire or Byzantine Empire lasted for almost one thousand years until Contantinople fell to the Turks in 1453.

Is the US in a similar situation? Possibly?  The US has been in decline since President Nixon defaulted on the gold obligation of 35 dollars for one ounce of gold. Nixon proclaimed it would be temporary, but almost 50 years later is still going. As a result inflation became rampant, Congress became generous and passed the law that allowed Americans to own gold again. President Roosevelt and Congress banned ownership of gold except in jewelry in 1933.

Economic conditions were deteriorating slowly. Inflation in the seventies, Reaganomics in the eighties, Clintonomics in the nineties, subprime mortgages and the tech bubble in the first decade of the new millennium and a severe bust in 2007-09 that nearly collapsed the entire system. Throughout this period, living standards for Americans were going down. The main culprits were debt, public and private, quality job losses, inflation, lack of affordable universal health care, expensive education, and foreign military interventions.

As I mentioned in my previous posts, the three pillars of paper, all based on debt, are keeping this system afloat, but just barely, and they are the dollar, the stock market, and the bond market. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are keeping the system going by shunting new money into stocks and bonds creating conditions for a financial shock that is becoming inevitable. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing are propping up the system, but not curing it; it cannot be cured.

One could call the US economy a “mirage” because there has been no actual growth since the late 1960’s. The living standards of the people have been going down and down, but the lies and deceptions have been going up. One does not know whom to believe. In socio-economic terms, three economic classes have developed in the US: the owner class of 1%, the overseer class of 4-5%, and the Precariat class of around 95%. The Precariat Class is composed of all ethnic groups, religions, and races, but it is kept divided by the Ownership Class for its own interests. The Precariat is on the whole totally dispossessed, and they live from pay cheque to pay cheque, with the loan sharking firms eating them in between.

The present recovery after the almost system collapse 0f 2007-8, has been nothing but “a mirage”, a statistical “recovery” propped by a series of quantitative easings and zero interest rates. The ownership class and the overseer class are doing extremely well, but the precariat class is barely surviving.

In foreign policy, the US, a hegemonic power, has become a reactionary force in order to maintain its world wide empire based on dollar indebtedness and exploitation of the rest of the world. Through its policy in the Middle East, it has lost Iran and now may lose Turkey, two large countries dominating the key strategic areas of the Afro-Eurasia. It is true, the US has gained  eastern Europe through the European Union and NATO, but Europe itself has become unstable.

In the Middle East, some claim that the US and Israel have created ISIS and Al-Qaeda  to destroy Syria and Iraq in order to get to Iran, and take total control of the Middle East and its natural resources. If Turkey switches to Eurasia, and a compromise is reached between Syria and Turkey, the US will lose the Middle East. The next shoe to drop will be Saudi Arabia because of its disastrous war in Yemen, as well as internal dissension.

Never before in its history has the US faced such complex problems as a dying economy  reflected in dying cities, dilapidated infrastructure, poor but costly education and health care; city violence could be a precursor to a general revolt.

The world is waiting with bated breath the results of the US presidential elections, The precariat class is flocking to Mr. Trump for salvation and the ownership class is in a panic. How the elections will turn out nobody knows, but if there is a financial collapse Trump would win massively. In that case, it is quite likely that martial law would be proclaimed and the elections postponed. Only time will tell.