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Cui Bono?

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The Russian plane tragedy which happened recently in Sinai, Egypt begs the question: who benefits? The Russian plane crash is a significant event in the Middle East and the world. It will polarize the world, and further divide the West from the Rest. Egypt definitely did not benefit. The plane crash could destroy the tourist industry of Egypt and worsen the already pretty bad economic condition of the country. The position of President El-Sisi could be on the line. Forces unfriendly to the President may organize a coup against him and destabilize the country. Cui Bono? Western strategic interests?

The Islamic State claims it bombed the plane. Quite likely. It boasts about having done it. This is to imply the great reach of the Islamic State. But who are its enablers? Saudi Arabia and Gulf States, but also the US, Britain, and Israel. The latter three are its’ real enablers. By using the Islamic State, the West wants to destroy Iraq, Syria, and Egypt, fragment them into smaller states which would then be subservient to Israel and the West. Created by the West, it is an instrument of power to destroy Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and more importantly, Iran. The Islamic State itself gains very little. It demonstrates to the world that it is very evil. This is a huge plus for President Assad, Russia, and its allies, Iran, Iraq, and Hesballah of Lebanon.

The irony of this all is that the biggest losers out of this will be these very enablers of ISIS. The refugee crises of the Greater Middle East and North Africa are destabilizing the European Union. The Kurdish Rebellion of Iraq and Syria is exciting the Kurds of Turkey, a NATO member and strong ally of Israel and the US. Turkey may end up in civil war. Israel is facing the third Palestinian Intifada, which is now in its early phase. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States face disaster in Yemen. The Middle East war is enlarging and is connecting what is going on in Afghanistan, the Ukraine, North Africa, and the Middle East, This is one war with many fronts. It also has socio-economic components. The socio-economic conditions of the European Union are deteriorating from the Baltics to Portugal,  from Ireland and Britain to Greece. The German economy is standing on one leg, and Mutter, Angela Merkel, is on the way out. Contrary to official propaganda, the US and Canada are not doing well at all. No interest rise this year or 2016. Foreigners will determine the interest rates, the value of the dollar and gold. The boomerang of Russian sanctions are in play.

A big battle is brewing for the ISIS center of El-Raqqua. Syrian Forces are attacking the city. The US has inserted 50 or so Special Forces within the Kurds. If the Kurds take the stronghold, the US will have a chance. If Assad wins, ISIS and the US will have no chance. Only time will tell.

 

The Middle East is the Pivot of World History.

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The Middle East is on the verge of great conflict.  The lines of conflict have been drawn up. The policy of the US since 1948 has been to secure the existence of Israel. This policy still exists today. The US is more involved in the Middle East than ever before. The policy of Israel and the US is to destroy or fragment any state that opposes the existence of Israel. Israel is a very powerful state, militarily and technologically. Some consider Israel the fourth most powerful state in the world, after the big three countries, China, Russia, and the US. The Achilles Heel of Israel is water. It has to import almost half of its water, mainly from Turkey,  a clearly pivotal state to the existence of Israel. The Armenian Genocide of 1916 in the Ottoman Empire caused  by the Turks is not recognized by Israel nor the US. It is understandable as to why.

Egypt and Jordan have been neutralized and diplomatic relations with Israel established. This relationship is precarious at best though. Libya and Iraq have been severely damaged but not yet destroyed.The last man standing has been Bashar al Assad of Syria. The US has decreed that Assad must go, but he is not going anywhere. A famous Prussian general, von Clausewitz, declared that war is a diplomacy by other means. Creation of the Islamic State by the West is diplomacy by other means. ISIS or the Islamic State has been declared by the US to be a terrorist state…but not really. The US bombs ISIS.. but not really. With all those shiny, new Toyota trucks and modern weapons ISIS is moving with the speed of light across Iraq and Syria. Volunteers are coming from all over the world. Volunteers are mainly Moslem Youth. One famous US senator was photographed with the Islamic State group. Even so, Iraq and Syria are still standing. Russia and Iran have stepped in. A sort of alliance has been formed, composed of Hasbullah  of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Russia. The opposing forces are ISIS, the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States. The massive refugee problem which has been created by US policies in the Middle East is destabilizing Europe. The economy of Europe, already weak, is being weakened further by the onslaught of refugees from the Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan. The vaunted economy of Germany is standing on one leg only. German exports are collapsing. Sanctions are hurting Europe more than they are hurting Russia. If Syria and Iraq win against ISIS, there will be a geo-strategic shift in the Middle East. The Palestinians are sensing this. A massive Palestinian uprising is in the making. China is developing new Silk Roads to Europe and Africa avoiding sea lanes controlled by the US Navy. Latin America is moving closer to Afro-Eurasia. Highways and high speed rail roads will be criss-crossing Afro-Eurasia. The US and its closest allies will face isolation…

Europe must re-consider its position vis a vis Russia. The Wall of Enmity that the US is’ building between Russia and Europe is not going to succeed. It is just a matter of time before the  people of the Ukraine rise up against the Kiev Junta and take their country back (with Russia where it belongs). The future of Europe is with Afro-Eurasia and Latin America. If the Palestinian Intifada turns massive and Israel feels threatened, it may use the nuclear option. Saudi Arabia also cannot be ignored, it is one of the key players in the Middle East. The Saudis are involved in mortal combat in Yemen with the Houthis and are about to lose big. If the Saudi dynasty is overthrown in the not too distant future and replaced by an anti-western leadership, you can kiss the petro dollar good bye. The dollar and the US economy would collapse. The US would face a series of crises it has never yet faced in its entire history. The Israeli economy, which is dependent on the US, would most certainly collapse. Perhaps, instinctively, the Palestinians are sensing that. I repeat again, a massive Intifada is in the works. No question, the Middle East is the pivot of world history.

Germany will switch and pull Europe East

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Napoleon said that geography is destiny. Europe is the largest peninsula of the Eurasian Continent. Since 1945, Europe, especially Western Europe has been under US domination. NATO was formed as a protection against the so called threat from the USSR. The threat was more imaginary than real. It served US interests though. The US pushed the concept of a North Atlantic World, composed of Western Europe, Canada, and the US. When the US speaks of “International Community” they speak of this particular region . When they say that the international community has ” isolated” Russia, they mean this region. When the USSR dissolved, Eastern Europe joined this North Atlantic World. This Europe became the chief pillar of American power. To keep this Europe under American domination, the US is trying to build  a Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia. This Wall of Enmity would run from the three Baltic States in the North East of Europe, through Poland to the South East into the Ukraine. Hence, the present situation in Ukraine…

Germany is the dominant power of the European Union, economically speaking. France is the nuclear power of the Union. Britain, never an eager member of the Union is the ” American Trojan Horse”. President Charles de Gaulle categorically stated  that Britain should never be allowed to be a member of the Union. Germany is in a dilemma as is the rest of Europe because they cannot grow without Russia and Eurasian interactions. Sanctions imposed by Europe serve the interests of the US only. Just ask European farmers. But, strangely Europe obeys, especially Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel. Merkel did not complain too much when the NSA was spying on her and the rest of Germany. The NSA is probably still spying on Merkel. The German People as a whole are very upset. I told one German why are Germans upset. I explained that, after all, they are still occupied by Britain and the US. I also told him that thanks to Russia, Germany is unified but thanks to the US, Germany is still occupied.

Besides spying, two other things have happened in the last two years and recently. Germany is the second largest holder of physical gold, in the amount of about 3400 tons. That is lots of gold.  1500 tons of gold is held in the US. Germany wants to repatriate the precious metal. Repatriation is very slow on the American side. They want to use gold to control Germany. The other issue that is negatively affecting  the US-German relationship is the Volkswagen fiasco. VW was caught cheating on pollution. Justifiably so. But the problem is all car companies are cheating.  It’s just that VW was singled out for reasons that have geopolitical significance and this is not apparent to the public.  VW is the largest car company in the world, with huge operations in Afro-Eurasia, especially in China. VW also looms large in Latin America. World wide it is out competing American car companies. Hence, the reason for singling out VW. Germans are furious. Germans will not take this kneeling down to the US. The refugee problem is a nightmare to Europe, especially to Germany. The refugee problem is the direct  and catastrophic result of US policies in Central Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Destabilizing the Middle East is immensely beneficial to the US and Israel. Putin has thrown the monkey wrench by supporting  Assad of Syria. Iran has joined in. The Alliance of the Humble has been formed; they are Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon {Hesbullah}, and Russia. China and Egypt are joining the alliance as well. As a matter of fact , the rest of the world is supporting the Alliance of the Humble. Great and tragic events are taking place in the Middle East. Nuclear exchange cannot be excluded.

Germany and Europe are at a cross roads. The US is trying to impose the Trans Atlantic Free Trade agreement at which many European countries and people are balking. This trade agreement would be the economic equivalent of NATO. Germany and other European countries want total independence. They want totally independent economic and foreign policy. If it means turning East, they will turn East, embracing and integrating  economically and politically with the civilizations of Africa and Eurasia. The Ukraine problem will solve itself. The people of the Ukraine will rise up and overthrow the junta and take their rightful historical place with Russia. The New Silk Road will criss  cross  Afro-Eurasia. Latin America will join.  This will be the triumph of the Humble over the Arrogant, provided there is no nuclear war. Only time will tell…

The Wall of Enmity

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When the USSR dissolved itself in 1991, Francis Fukuyama,an American historian, proclaimed the end of history. Western Liberal Philosophy won and everything would be great and there would be no more serious conflict in the world. It was a noble assumption but totally wrong.With the collapse of the USSR, the equilibrium of the world was lost. All things in the Universe tend to go to the  lowest entropy level. A system is most stable when it uses the least amount of energy and this according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.With the demise of the USSR, the US tried to establish “Unipolarity” in the world. Our planet is bipolar. A unipolar planet cannot exist. Unipolarity failed and the US is trying to consolidate the spheres of influences in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South East Asia,and Latin America. Hence, their negotiation with South East Asia and Europe for free trade agreements with the dollar as the preferred currency of trade.To consolidate its power in Europe,it is building a “Wall of Enmity” between the European Union and Russia.

The keystone of American power in the world is Europe. Europe and Russia have been moving closer together. There has been a fusion of strategic and economic interests between the two parts of Europe .After all, Europe is nothing but a large peninsula of Afro-Eurasian landmass. As Napoleon stated, geography is destiny. Europe and Russia belong together.This is anathema to the US. Hence, build a Wall of Enmity between Russia and European Union.

The Wall of Enmity would run from three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania in the North East of Europe through Poland and end in the Ukraine in the South East. The US was hoping for military and naval bases in the Black Sea on the Crimean Peninsula. But Crimea is lost, Donbass is lost as well. As everybody knows, civil war is going on in the Ukraine. People in the rest of the Ukraine are unhappy with the junta in Kiev. Pro-Russian partisan activity is taking place in the regions of Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk, Zaporozhe, Kherson and Odessa. Also Zacarpathia and Lviv regions are unstable. The economy of the Ukraine is collapsing. Yes, Russia is keeping the Ukraine afloat.Three possibilities await the Ukraine: number one is war and Americans are eager for war.They are training and arming the regime in Kiev.If war starts Ukrainians will not really fight Donbass. Instead, they will fight the junta and the Americans.Donbass forces with the help of the rest of the Ukraine will march on Kiev. Number two: the Ukrainian Army will revolt and join the Donbass forces. Number three: the revolt of Ukrainians who will restore brotherly relations with Russia. Russia is just waiting for these outcomes. Americans are clueless about Ukrainian history, etc. The Ukrainian soul is the Russian soul. There are intimate family ties between Russians and Ukrainians. Most Ukrainian refugees are ending up in Russia where they are well received as relatives. Even the Baltic states and Poland will be knocking on Russian doors. The rest of Europe will follow,especially Italy, France, Hungary,and Germany ( once Angela Merkel is gone). The Trans-Atlantic relationship will be frozen in the icy waters of the North Atlantic. The Enmity Wall in Europe will thus not be built. We shall see.Time will tell.