Category Archives: germany

Short Observations II

The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

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German Election Results?

Mutter Merkel did not do too well. As a senior persona and running for her 4th term , she and her CDU should have gotten at least 40% or more, so she could have formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party as in the past; a clear majority would have been best. Germans are restless because of migrants and the stern Russophobia of her government.

The German media tried some Russian interference to discredit the AfD, but it did not work. Alternativa fur Duetschland did well, especially in former East Germany. SPD did poorly. Martin Schultz, the leader, said that the party will go into opposition. Smart move. Merkel will have to court the Free Democratic Party (right), Der Linke (left), and the Greens (Environmentalists).

SDP and AfD will be the opposition. They will want change to German economic and foreign policy. Despite being a wealthy country, Germany has 8 million people living in poverty, out of a population of 84 million. The status quo will no longer do. Even coalition partners will want change.

The Germans want change, and change they will get. Change on the migration policy, on Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea. The opposition will demand that sanctions against Russia be cancelled. The opposition will demand removal of nuclear weapons from the country and a Modus Vivendi with Russia. Germany will move to neutrality. France, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece,and Slovenia will join. Later, all of Europe will go neutral a la Switzerland. Britain will stay faithful to the US.

This massive shift will affect the policy of Africa and Latin America. The role of the dollar and the gold will be reversed. It will be very interesting.

German Election of September 24, 2017

The most important election of the key state of the E.U. is taking place tomorrow, September 24,2017, and the US mainstream media is giving it scant coverage. The elections are important because the results will direct or influence German geostrategic policy and orientation for the years to come

There are many parties in Germany: the Christian Democratic Union of chancellor Merkel, the Social Democratic Party, Der Link Party or the Left Party, the Free Democratic Party, the Greens, and the Alternativa fur Deutschland, aka an Alternative for Germany.

The Christian Democrats or CDU are leading. They may win plurality of the votes but no majority. The Social Democrats may gain plurality but no majority. Minor parties may play key roles in coalitions that may be formed which would govern Germany.

All minor parties are important, but two of them specifically. The Free Democrats of the right who formed many postwar coalitions with C.D.U. that ruled Germany. The other minor party is the Alternativa for Deutschland, or AfD considered extreme right with no members in the Bundestag, but is third in the polls.

Whatever garnitura comes to rule Germany, if Alternaiva fur Deutschland  wins seats in the Bundestag, it will become the most vocal opposition party in all of Germany. The AfD will demand an end to the US occupation of Germany, a modus vivendi with Russia, and the right to join the one belt,one road arrangement with China. Trade by rail system over Afro-Eurasia will avoid a possible US sea blockade. All this will be anathema to US geostrategic interests.

German elections are very important for the E.U. and the US.

Subservience vs. Independence

In the next twenty five years, if there is no nuclear war, the intense struggle in the world will be between Subservience and Independence. By 1945, the US became the dominant power of the world. The dollar became the official currency of the world backed by gold and military power. The US obligated itself to protect European Empires as they disintegrated slowly. The British Empire became the British Commonwealth of Nations, the French Empire became the French Union, while other European Empires simply disintegrated. All the states of the European Empires became de Jure Independent States, but the de Facto were subservient to the West. The only country that could challenge the US was the USSR. The US proclaimed the USSR as the enemy and created military blocks such as NATO, CENTO for the Middle East and SEATO for South East Asia. With the collapse of USSR in 1991, the US became the Hegemon of the World. With Yeltsin in power there was the danger that Russia might disintegrate, but this did not happen.

With the advent of Putin, the Yeltsin policy of subservience to the US has been abandoned, and Russia has become stronger and is growing stronger despite sanctions. Iran, since the Islamic Revolution of I979, despite Western sanctions, has become much stronger and becomes a key player of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea of the Indian Ocean. It is not likely that Iran would have become influential in the region and the world if it had stayed subservient to US, and not sought independence.The question must be asked as to why  the US fought the War of Independence against Britain if subservience is such a pleasant state? It is very simple, the US would have never become what it is today if it had stayed a member of the British Empire. Why did Britain elect to leave the EU if it so pleasant to obey the rules and regulations of the European Commission? One of the reasons why Japan is still stagnating is  because Japan is still occupied and subservient to the interests of the US. Ask China why its growth has been phenomenal. The main reason is that China is independent and subservient to no one. The end result is everybody wants good trade relations with China, including the US. The Rest of the World is also observing this geostrategic situation…

Turkey, under Erdogan, was questioning its relation to the US. Turkey was helping the US by supporting ISIS and allowing the US to use Incerlik Air Base to bomb the Syrian Government positions in their fight against ISIS. At the same time, the US was scheming with the Kurds to set up a Kurdish State of Northern Syria and Northern Iraq. Also, the Turks shot down a Russian bomber over Syria to please the US. Apparently, Erdogan was not involved in the Russia plane shooting. His pro-American Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutuglu ordered the shoot down. All hell broke loose. Erdogan fired his Prime Minister Davutuglu, appointed Binali Yeldirim as Prime Minister, and apologized to Russia. Rapprochement with Russia occurred followed by an unsuccessful coup engineered by US help from the Incerlik Air Base. Turks are very unhappy and very defiant. The main opponent  of Erdogan is Islamist Gulen who lives in US. Extradition of Gulen to Turkey will be very, very slow, if it ever occurs. Hope that Turkey would revert to being a subservient ally is gone. Turkey has chosen an independent path.

The Philippines has also chosen the path to independence. After the Spanish- American War of 1898-99 engineered by President McKinley using the sinking of the Battleship Maine in Havana Harbour to declare war on Spain. The US won with not much difficulty. Subsequent occupation and suppression of Philippino resistance was somewhat more difficult. After several years of guerilla war, the Philippines were fully pacified. One would expect that after 116 yrs under American Rule, the Philippines would be highly developed and prosperous! But it is not.  The Phiippines are one of the poorest countries of South East Asia. They resent their subservience to the US, and elected Duterte as their President. He immediately opted for independence.

Turkey and the Philippines, major countries of Afro-Eurasia have set an example for other countries of Latin America and Afro-Eurasia to follow. Germany will follow the policy of Otto von Bismarck, the friendship with Russia. France will resurrect the policy of General Charles de Gaulle of Europe from the Atlantic to Vladivostok. Italy, Spain, and other countries will follow. Russia only has to sit and wait and remain strong.

In Asia and South East Asia, countries following the Philippine example are Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, etc. They all want to be independent.

In Africa there is a yearning for independence from Algeria in the North to the Republic of South Africa in the South. The yearning to be independent and free is unstoppable.

Latin America is the same. There is a yearning from the Rio Grande in the North to Tierra del Fuego in the South to be free and Independent. Simon Bolivar and Jose de San Martin have not been forgotten by the people of Latin America and the West Indies.

Another name for subservience is globalization. Globalization is the system that allows giant multinational corporations to exploit and rule the world according to the rules set up by the City of London and Wall Street. Globalization has been around since the British East India Company ruled India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Shri Lanka, Myanmar. Globalization sounds much nicer than subservience.

Also, subservient states are holding dollars, while independent ones are accumulating gold.

However difficult, the road to independence is unstoppable. That is the flow of history.

 

The significance of India-Pakistan animosity in the world of geo-politics

When India achieved independence from Britain in 1947, it split along the religious line: the Hindu India and Islamic Pakistan. The split was encouraged by the Anglo-Americans. The British did not like Mahatma  Gandhi or Jawarhal Nehru, and preferred Muhammad Ali Jinna, the founder of modern Pakistan.

When the split occurred, Hindu India, a much bigger country, ended up with Jammu Kashmir, a  beautiful Himalayan valley populated mainly by the Muslims, but ruled by a Hindu who sided with Hindu India. The fight over Kashmir persists to this day and will persist into the future.

Both Pakistan and India are multi-ethnic. In 1971, Pakistan split into West Pakistan, a larger region west of India, and East Pakistan, east of India, the so called Bengal. Its new name is Bangla Desh, land of Bengalis. Bitter war was fought in East Pakistan by West Pakistan to keep  East Pakistan in union with West Pakistan. Three million Bengalis lost their lives. Under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, the daughter of Nehru, India helped East Pakistan to become independent. The US sided with West Pakistan, and President Nixon sent the 7th Fleet from the western Pacific into the Bay of Bengal to intimidate the Indians. It did not work, as the Soviet Union sided with India. In December of 1961, Russia sided with India over the annexation of Portuguese Goa, while the US and Britain sided with Portugal. India considered Russia an “all weather friend”. How things change!

India is much bigger with a population of over 1.25 billion people and land area of around 1.2 million square miles. Pakistan, on the other hand, is much smaller with a population of over 200 million and a land area of around 300,000 square miles. Strategically speaking, Pakistan is holding more pivotal connections of Asia. Pakistan borders China on the North-East, India on the East, Afghanistan on North-West, Iran on the West, and the Indian Ocean on the South. India is considered a subcontinent of Asia jutting out to the Indian Ocean. Its land borders are Nepal, China in the North, Bangla Desh, Mayanmar to the East, Pakistan to the West.

Pakistan has a strategic relationship with China and a subservient role vis a vis the US. India has a rather cool relationship with China because of its’ border disputes in the Himalayas, a warming relationship with the US, and a geostrategic relationship with Russia.

As China enters the global stage, it is developing trade routes with South-West Asia and Europe via Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans and into Europe, and if Turkey achieves rapprochement with Russia, the process will accelerate. Also, Pakistan is a transit country enabling the US to invade Afghanistan, maintain military operations against the Taliban, and control the opium trade, a highly profitable enterprise that helps maintain the dollar as the Reserve Currency of the world. It is self-evident that Pakistan is extremely important, geo -strategically speaking, to US and China; it is also a nuclear power.

As mentioned, India is a large and important country of the Asian Subcontinent and the center of Hindu Civilization. It has had a very independent foreign policy, first as the co- founding member  of the Non-Aligned Movement, and now as the co-founding member of BRICS, { Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the Republic of South Africa.) It is a nuclear power, and the 6th or the 7th economic power of the world.

India is drifting West, buying high tech weapons from Israel, Rafale jet fighters from France. It is entering some sort of military basing arrangements with the US which has never happened before. US wants India to be a keystone in the Wall of Enmity that the US is building from the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Black Sea, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Philippines, Japan to South Korea. The Wall would hem in Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia. The gate keeper with the keys would be the US.

If India joins the Wall of Enmity though, it would lose its privileged geostrategic relationship with Russia, and its moral influence in the world. It would also lose its influence in BRICS, and would never be able to participate in the Silk Roads that China and other countries are building. India would become the odd man out on the Afro-Eurasian land mass. India, most likely, will not join the Wall of Enmity. However, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Pakistan, on the other hand, would like to break out from US subservience. It has sent feelers to Russia. Russia and Pakistan will hold some kind of military exercises very soon. India is upset, understandably so, but India should understand that if it has the right to choose its partners, then so do other countries.

Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing, as more and more of its’ countries are abandoning the strict subservience which the US dictates. They are using their own currencies in two way trade, thereby avoiding the dollar and trade is growing amongst them  as a result. India, Pakistan, Iran, and Venezuela want to join the Shanghai Co-operation Organization. Other countries are also trying to re-assert their independence: Turkey, Philippines, Japan, plus France, Germany, and Italy are in the game.

The animosity between India and Pakistan might impede the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia. An India connected to the West would not be interested in Afro-Eurasian coalescence and a geo-strategic relationship with Russia. Pakistan, on the other hand, because of its geo-strategic position would enhance the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia especially if it joins the Shanghai Co-operation Organization and BRICS, minus India, and possibly, Brazil. So history is implying that with or without India, Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing. Only time will tell.

 

Will Turkey leave NATO and join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Turkey has been a “good boy” ally of the West since 1952 when it joined NATO. It’s been in many wars supporting the US, from the Korean,1950-53 to Iraq One, 1990, Afghanistan 2001. Iraq Two in 2003, to present wars in Iraq and Syria, by supporting ISIS. ISIS nearly won, but now, is possibly losing.

The only benefit Turkey has ever achieved from being the “good boy” ally was supplying cheap labor to West German economy. Germans look kindly on the Turks for being their close ally in the First World War, and by being pro-German in the Second World War.

For all its devotion to the West, the rewards have been small. Wasn’t it the British ex-prime minister Cameron, who said that Turkey can become member of the European Union in next three thousand years? Turkey has no chance of joining the Union. Vague promises yes, but no membership. Russia was one of the most important trading partners of Turkey. Turkey gambled and lost an excellent neighborly relationship with Russia by shooting an unarmed bomber over Syrian territory. I am sure that, Turkey got an encouragement from the West to increase the enmity between the Turks and the Russians. The economic reprisals from Russia were massive and Turkey is still suffering from them. All this Turkish confrontation with Russia did not cost the US a penny, but the benefits were immense.

The Turks started to put two and two together and they did not like what they saw. President Erdogan started to think. First, he apologized for the plane, and Putin responded; rapprochement between Russia and Turkey began. It will be a slow process, but it is the beginning.  Also, Turkish rapprochement with Iran, Iraq, and Syria will begin. ISIS will be the big loser. Someone in the West did not like this, hence the coup d’état.

The coup d’état failed, and the Shanghai Co-operation Organization beckons to Turkey to join provided the conditions are met. The New Silk Road of Afro-Eurasia led by China also beckons Turkey, and Turkey might just bite. As a result, the West will face a debacle in the Middle East. The West will not like the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia. Another coup d’état will be attempted to prevent it. A great confrontation between Turkey and the West is in store. How the historical wind will blow, and how history will flow remains to be seen. Only time will tell.

Is war between Russia and the US inevitable?

The question, whether war between Russia and the US is inevitable needs serious analysis. The US considers Russia an existential threat, even though it is not. Biblical religions believed that the earth was flat, and anybody who questioned that faced serious consequences, yet, we know that the earth was never flat.  The US wants to destroy Russia, and impose Unipolarity on the  World. Duality or bipolarity is the natural phenomenon of the Universe. Good and Evil are the duality of the Universal Force, and whether Russia or the US is pursuing the policy of good or evil will be revealed by coming events.

The plan to destroy Russia is many, many centuries old. We know the plans of the Teutonic Germanic Knights, and how they ended in 1242, when Alexander Nevsky, lured the German armored cavalry on the frozen water of Lake Ladoga, and destroyed them. A brilliant strategy that is not taught in Anglo- American schools, as is not the greatest scientist of the 20th Century, Nikola Tesla. The US attempt is the latest of many attempts to destroy Russia.

The Cold War was an attempt by the Anglo-Americans to destroy Russia. The dissolution of the USSR was started by Khrushchev and finished by Gorbachev and Yeltsin. It is ironic that the name of Khrushchev is derived from the Russian word for beetle, Hroshch. The USSR dissolved but, Russia, like the Phoenix, underwent resurrection.

Russia in 2016 is facing the possibility of preventive war of total annihilation by the US on Russia. Russia today is in similar situation that USSR was in 1941 when Germany with all of the Europe under its control, unleashed total, destructive war of annihilation against the USSR. We all know how the German war ended in the invasion of the USSR.

There is a danger that preventive war of annihilation by the US against Russia led by Neo-cons who essentially control the US, may start at any moment. American People do not want war and that is one of the reasons that Americans are flocking to Mr. Donald Trump, and that is one of the main reasons why the Neo-cons and their allies hate Trump. Trump wants to develop a Modus Vivendi with Russia.

May I remind the Neo-cons that in the case of preventive war against Russia, a Russian counter strike would be super, super massive. A hydrogen bomb of a hundred million tons of TNT, the tsar bomba, if it hit the San Andreas Fault, would make California the new desert island of the Pacific Ocean. Just imagine what would happen to the rest of the country. My advice to the Ruling Elite of the US is to make a symbiotic Modus Vivendi, not only with Russia, but also with the rest of the world. Live peacefully and do not try to  rule the world.

Only time will reveal whether my analysis is true.