Category Archives: palestine

How would a US/Israel vs Iran War play out?

The US is under tremendous Israeli pressure to attack and destroy Iran. It wants to start off by asphyxiating the country economically first but if that does not work, then attack it militarily, and the sooner the better.

Iran (or Persia) has been rather peaceful for at least two centuries until the present day. During the Second World War, Iran was neutral early on, but was invaded by the British and the Soviets. Britain took control of Iranian oil via the Anglo- Iranian Oil Company. Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill agreed at the Tehran Conference of November 28-December 1,1943 to Iranian independence within its present boundaries. The Soviets then left but the British stayed. Dr. Mossadegh was elected president but in 1953 was overthrown by US/UK for nationalizing  Iranian oil. The Shah of the Pahlavi Dynasty was restored to power. The Shah was the most pro-American and pro-Israeli leader of the Middle East. He was the main US weapons buyer in the Middle East and a most devoted friend of Israel. He parked his extra cash from oil in US Treasuries in the amount of 150 billion dollars which the US Government froze/ confiscated after the Iranian Revolution of 1979 led by Imam Khomeini.

Khomeini withdrew recognition of the State of Israel. The result was the US then enticed Saddam Hussein to attack Iran in 1980. Iran fought Iraq to a draw despite isolation and Iraqi use of poison gas. The West did not condemn Saddam Hussein for using poison gas. Today, Iran is not isolated. It is surrounded by friendly countries: Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, India, Russia. Also, China. It will be hard to isolate Iran. Sanctions will not work. Seems that war is inevitable but Iran will not attack anybody unless attacked.

As I tweeted several times earlier this year, Iran along with Turkey is one of the most geo-strategically important countries in the world. Major events of world history have played out here and will continue to play out in the future. The question is, will there be a war in the Middle East which may end life on Earth? Asphyxiation economics and a coup d’etat will be tried first.

Will the US attack Iran? This is the question of our time. The best solution would be peaceful resolution. The US has proclaimed Iran a terrorist state because of its support for the Palestinians, Hesballah, and Syria. But Iran is in Syria legally, while the US is there illegally. Amazing! Because of the Hesballah and Palestinian uprising, Israel is hemmed in. If war starts between the US and Iran, it will be due to provocation. It will be horrible. Both sides will suffer and sustain heavy casualties. The idea is to overthrow the Islamic Republic. But if that is not possible, then to destroy Iran to such an extent that it will never be a threat to Israel ever again. Then, Israel would be the supreme power in the Middle East with the freedom of action without any consequences. The destruction would be immense in the greater Middle East. Oil would not be available at any price. Without energy there is no modern economy or life. But Iran will not buckle. Confrontation between Russia and the US will be inevitable. Nuclear weapons would be used. Israel would use its nuclear arsenal; Iran would destroy Israel. A Third World War could be inevitable. All life on Earth would end. These will be the consequences of a US/Israeli attack on Iran. Embrace peace, not war!

Turkish election of June 24, 2018

On June 24, 2018, Turkey will hold elections which will change the political structure of the country. The presidential system will replace the parliamentary one. Executive power will be dominant. The individual behind the change is president Recep Erdogan.

Erdogan has been active in Turkish politics since 1994 when he was elected mayor of Istanbul  1994-98. Since about 2000 to 2014 he was prime minister. In 2014, he was elected president for five years. This June election of 2018 is a year early, because he wants to change the political structure of the country with a strong president as head of state. He is the leader of the Justice and Development Party. He is a conservative Islamic nationalist which the Turkish people love.

Turkey is geo-strategically a very significant country. It controls the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. It is part of Europe and the Middle East. A nation of more than 80,000,000 people, about 20% are Kurds. The country is fairly large, 302,500 square miles; it encompasses all of the Anatolian Peninsula.

Turkey fought in the Korean War,1950-53, on the US side. It has been faithful and subservient to US interests. It has tried to be a member of the EU without success. Now Erdogan no longer cares about the EU. Under Erdogan for over three decades, Turkey has developed into a modern industrial state. Turkey has had an insincere policy towards Syria, with no problems with neighbours, to outright support of ISIS; it had a strategic partnership with Israel. That changed because of the Palestinians which Turkey strongly supports. Turkey still supplies almost 50% or more of Israeli fresh water needs. Until 2016, Turkey had an antagonistic relationship with Russia. It shot a Russian jet over Syria claiming it was over Turkey. The Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Istanbul in 2015. Possibility of war existed, but Russia as usual played calmly.

The coup d’etat of 2016 changed everything; it failed badly. Turkey claims that the coup was organized by religious leader Gulen who lives in the US. Turkey accused the US of being involved, which the US denies. The US refuses to release Gulen to Turkish authorities. Russia helped Erdogan during the coup. A policy of friendship developed between Russia and Turkey. Erdogan apologized to Putin for shooting down the Russian jet and the assassination of the Russian ambassador; Russian tourists and trade returned to Turkey.

Iran, Russia, and Turkey are coordinating their policy on Syria.  The policy includes no partition of Syria and that Assad’s fate is to be decided by Syrian people. This is anathema to the US and Israel. The US is in direct confrontation with Turkey over Kurdish areas of Syria. Turkey will not allow a Kurdish enclave in N.E. Syria. The US wants an independent Kurdistan in Syria which would be allied with Israel. Turkey is vehemently opposed to any Kurdish state. Syria, Iran, and Iraq are also opposed to a possible Kurdish state. Erdogan is opposed to any idea of a Kurdish state.

June 24, 2018 elections are absolutely crucial for Turkey and the West. It seems Turkey is orienting itself to Russia and Eurasia. Turkey is buying the Russian S-400. The US threatens sanctions on Turkey and may not sell Turkey its F-35; Turkey doesn’t care. If Erdogan gets strong support in this election it will indicate that the Turkish people support his policies. Turkey will embrace Russia,  and NATO will become irrelevant as two major members clash.

The future relationship between Turkey and the US will be very interesting; it will affect the entire world. Watch the Turkish elections this coming Sunday, June 24, 2018.

US/Israel vs Iran

Israel claims that Iran is the greatest threat to its security. Iran will never attack Israel, unless it is attacked by them. It has no need to. The reason Israel hates Iran is because Iran supports the Palestinian cause, Hezbollah of Lebanon, and Assad of Syria. Hezbollah defends Lebanon from Israeli attacks. Iran under the Shah was the best ally in the Middle East that Israel ever had. How things change! Now, Iran is the greatest enemy of Israel. Iran does not recognize Israel since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. If Israel, supported by the US, attacks Iran it would be a big deal. A Third World War could prove to be inevitable. So, let us analyze the situation.

Israel is a very vulnerable state, despite a superiority of armaments, including nuclear weapons which Israel denies. One thing Israel does not have is water. No water, no life. The Jordan River has become a creek which Israel has had to share with the Kingdom of Jordan. The Golan Heights, Syrian land occupied by Israel in the 1967 war, supplies Israel with drinking water. Desalination and re-purification of water is but a small part of Israel’s water supply; very expensive process. It does not produce drinking water, and is energy dependent. So, Israel is forced to import drinking water from Turkey.

Israel is a growing, sophisticated, modern economy. For all life on Earth, water is an absolute necessity. Countries that are in need of more water: Jordan, Sahel Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, China and some others. But none need it as critically as Israel. Under present circumstances no Arab country such as Lebanon and Syria would willingly supply water to Israel. Israel can only get water from Lebanon and Syria by force. Hence, war in Syria.

The war in Syria was started because of water. That cannot be said officially though. War must have a noble façade to cover its real reasons. These noble reasons for war: Assad is a dictator, butcher, killing his own people, gassing them and creating refugee problems for Europe. A slogan was created: “Assad, the butcher, must go”. The Spear of Change was to be ISIS or the Islamic State, created by the UK/US/Israel. It was assumed to be easy a la Libya and Iraq with the same results: chaos. It did not happen though or, at least, not yet.

Syria appears to be winning, but the war is not over. The second phase of war is being planned.  Macron is saying that the UK/US/FR should stay in Syria to rebuild it: Unbelievable! Assad just returned his medal, the Legion of Honour to France. This is classical colonial speak that has no place today. The war in Syria will continue and expand to include Iran.

The idea of staying in Syria is to prevent an Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance. Turkey and Pakistan will join this alliance. This is important because Pakistan is a significant nuclear power in alliance with China. This alliance would be a dominant force in the Middle East and would keep the peace. This cannot be allowed to happen though, because then Israel would be contained. UK/US/FR will not allow containment of Israel; expect more war.

Presently, Israel is facing a new Palestinian Intifada with no end in sight. It is very violent and Palestinians are being killed and wounded daily. The young girl, Ahed Tamimi is the symbol of Palestinian resistance. This Intifada will go on for a long time until the Palestinians get their basic rights. Intifada will exhaust Israel. Also, Israel has been pinpricking Syria for decades with no response. MSM does not report much. Sad!

The US/UK/FR attack of last week was to demonstrate their power. Their plan was to destroy the Syrian military infrastructure. It failed. Out of 103 missiles launched, 71 were shot down, Two missiles that failed were given to Russia by Syria. French president Macron suggested that UK/US/FR should stay in Syria. If the UK/US/FR stay in Syria, guerilla war will develop against them and their allies. The country they will blame will be Iran, as they blame Iran for everything that happens in the Middle East. Israel will clamor for an attack on Iran as it has done so far, but with greater intensity and results. The US may attack Iran. Israel would then attack Hezbollah to get the waters of Lebanon, and partition Syria. But the Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance will not buckle. The Islamic world, Russia, and China would aid the Alliance. Nuclear war could become inevitable.

The Situation in the Middle East

World alliances are shifting because of the Middle East. Geographically speaking, the Middle East is the center of Afro-Eurasia, hence the center of the world. The Greater Middle East extends from the Balkans to Pakistan and from the Caucusus Mountains, Iran to  Libya, Egypt, Sudan, the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It is one of the great geostrategic regions of the world. Control the greater Middle East and you control the world through its geography and strategic resources such as oil and gas.

Western Powers, Britain and France have been controlling the Middle East since the end of the First World War. But since !945, it has been under the rather firm control of the USA. Also, Israel, since its establishment in 1948 has been most feared factor in the Arabic and Islamic Middle East.

Today, the situation in the Middle East is precarious. Several wars are going on simultaneously: the Palestinian struggle against Israeli occupation, the Iraqi war and occupation by the US since 2003, the Turkish- Kurdish conflict, the Syrian war since 2011, and the Yemeni war of the past several years. The Saudis are very unstable. The Yemeni War is the Hanjar in the Saudi heart. It is their own fault. Jordan is also very shaky, dominated by Israel and the Saudis. Egypt is on the sidelines for the moment.

Two Islamic, non Arabic countries, Iran and Turkey are destined to play very significant roles in the area and in the world. Also, Pakistan will play a significant part. These three countries will change the flow of history because they control the most geostrategic area of the world’s geography.

The US/UK/Saudi/Israeli plan is to destroy and partition Syria. The only way to do that is to remove Assad. US/Israel also want to destroy Hezbollah, in order for Israel to get the waters of Lebanon. Without this Lebanese water resource, Israel cannot survive. No nation is viable without an abundant natural water supply.

The opposing forces of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Turkey, and Russia want to preserve the unity and territorial integrity of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

The US will use the Kurds of Syria to establish a Syrian Kurdistan in N.E. Syria. Eventually, over a decade or two, the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey and Iran would join the Syrian Kurdistan which would create Greater Kurdistan in alliance with an enlarged Israel and the US. In the ensuing conflict Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey would be partitioned or even destroyed. Russia would be kicked out. All the wealth of the Middle East and its geostrategic real estate would be under US/ Israeli control; this is the ultimate plan of the Neocons.

The foundations of these grand strategic plans are very fragile. The US is threatening to bomb Syria, specifically Damascus and the presidential palace on the basis of false accusations that Syria is using chemical weapons in Ghouta. The US has used this excuse in the past to bomb the country. Russia said it will oppose any US action. If the US acts, confrontation between the US and Russia is inevitable. Naval forces of both countries are in a position of confrontation. The US Ambassador, Niki Haley, delivered a very aggressive speech at the UN Security Council a week ago. Turkey has announced plans to control the Syrian Kurdish area to the Iraqi border. Also, Iraq has agreed for Turkish troops to enter Iraqi Kurdistan. This will lead to an inevitable confrontation with the US. Also, Hezbollah is expecting and waiting for an Israeli attack on Lebanon and Syria.

In all seriousness, a big confrontation, possibly a third world war, is around the corner. We will see.

Very Short Observations IV

The knowledge is intentionally withheld that the EU nations use dollars, not euros, in trade among themselves, as well as with other nations. It is amazing and true. So, the dollar is not only the petro-dollar, but the official currency of international trade. The most important world trade is in oil, and until now, it has been traded in dollars. Most international debt is also denominated in dollars. The dollar is used as the chief instrument of enforcing sanctions against nations who do not follow US policy. The dollar is the Thunder Bolt of Zeus that I mentioned in my earlier posts from 2015-16.

But the exceptionality of this currency which makes the US the exceptional nation may be coming to an end. China will be trading oil in the yuan, convertible to gold. Oil nations will be able to sell their oil for the yuan on the Shanghai Exchange, avoiding dollars. The yuan will be freely exchangeable for gold. Many oil nations will flock to the “Petro-Yuan”. This new development is of great geo-economic significance. Venezuela, for instance, would be able to sell its heavy crude from Lake Maracaibo for yuan. How the US will react to this challenge remains to be revealed. Will the US react aggressively to China?

A commodity that is necessary for all life on Earth is water. Mother Nature provides us water free of charge. Fortunate are those nations or people who have an abundance of it. Those nations who feel they are powerful enough are willing to go to war to get it. The countries of the Mediterranean basin that have an abundance of water are the new republics of the former Yugoslavia. Other countries are Turkey, Lebanon, and possibly Syria because of the two rivers that flow through North East Syria from Turkey: the Euphrates and the Tigris, which touches Syria as it leaves Turkey and enters Iraq.

Countries that are water poor: Libya and Israel. Libya was intentionally destroyed in 2011, killing and sodomizing its leader, Gaddafi, in order to plunder its resources, especially its oil. Gaddafi wanted a gold dinar for all of Africa. Israel, a water-poor yet highly advanced country, whose water needs are increasing daily, needs a source of free water. Presently, Israel imports about 50% of its fresh water from Turkey. If a confrontation develops between Israel and Turkey, in the future, Turkey could shut off its water exports to Israel. De-salination is an inadequate substitute; it is also very expensive.

And so Lebanon beckons. To get the waters of Lebanon, war is inevitable. Hezbollah, whether one likes it or not, is the guardian of Lebanese independence vis a vis Israel, so war is inevitable. Israel experienced Hezbollah in 2006 war. Hezbollah is no joke.

Saudi Arabia is not a country in the normal sense of the word, because it is owned by 50,000 to 100,000 royals who take most of its oil wealth for their own personal use. But the Saudis are now in trouble. They’re losing their war in Yemen. Oil revenues are down. A confrontation with Iran looms in the distance. Internal dissension exists. The situation in the Saudi Arabia is precarious. They have pushed themselves into a Zugzwang situation. An alliance with Israel and the dismissal of the Lebanese prime minister are possibly related. The official dogma: Hezbollah and Iran have become mortal enemies of Israel and the Saudis. Big war is inevitable for water, oil, and hegemony of the Middle East and the world. The US and NATO will side with the Saudis and Israel, unconditionally; most of the rest of the world will side with the Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Iran. Will this war turn nuclear? Possibly!

The Ukraine cannot be ignored; it is on the verge of collapse. The Ukraine’s internal and external policies are totally absurd. For example, certain nationalists want to break diplomatic relations with Russia. Also, they are buying expensive  anthracite hard coal from the US rather than cheaper and better quality coal from Russia or Donbass for its power plants; Ukrainians will be freezing this winter! Also they are trying to mpose the Ukrainian language on minorities such as Hungarians and Russians. Kiev will gamble war in order to save itself; it will not work.

Contrary to Main Stream Media propaganda, the US economy is not doing well. Both, debt and stocks are precariously high. The EU not much better; just ask the Greeks.

Truly, a very precarious time; very unique in history!

Syria, Turkey, Kurds, Israel, and the US.

The Syrian war is entering a critical phase. Alliances are shifting but the goal has not and the goal is this: Partition Syria and remove Assad. The original proxy army of the US and Israel has not been too successful of late, but one cannot dismiss them. ISIS has proven that it has many lives; moderates and extremists.

The US support for ISIS is well known in the Middle East as is Israeli. Further cooperation will not bear much fruit. The US is betting now on the Kurds. If the Kurds obtain an autonomous area in the North-East of Syria, the area could become an anchor of US power in Syria and the rest of the Middle East.

The problem is Turkey. Turkey will not tolerate any autonomous region in Syria that is Kurdish, so the US finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Turkey has been a faithful ally of the US since right after the Second World War. Also, Turkey has been a close friend of Israel. Most of the fresh water that Israel needs comes from Turkey. All three countries, US, Turkey, and Israel were, and possibly still are, supporters of ISIS.

The confrontation is increasing between Turkey and the US. Presently, Turkey is sitting on the fence. It is anchored in the West but wants to break free. This is a dilemma of historic proportions. If and when it occurs it will be a geo -strategically earth shaking event. If it happens, the US will be forced to leave Incerlik airbase. It is possible that diplomatic relations will be severed a la Iran.

Syria will shape the alliances of the region for years to come. Turkey has no choice but to side with Syria. This will guarantee Syrian unity and independence. The Kurds will have autonomy within a Syrian state. The US and Israel oppose such an arrangement, so more war is inevitable.

If this re-arrangement of alliances takes place, the end result will be as follows: Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Turkey will be backed by Russia and the opposing forces will be composed of ISIS, Peshmerga of Kurdistan National Government, the Saudis, the Gulf States, and Israel backed by the US.

If the US side wins though, the result will be as follows: Syria and Lebanon will be partitioned and Assad will be gone; water will flow to Israel from the Litani and Euphrates rivers; gas and oil will flow from the Gulf to Europe, decreasing EU dependence on Russian gas; a Kurdish republic will be established in N. E. Syria; Turkey and Iran will be weakened and, most important, Russia will be out of the Middle East.

However, if Syria wins, the following will happen: Syria stays united and much stronger under Assad; Turkey joins the East and its power is enhanced; Iranian power is enhanced as it becomes dominant in Iraq and Yemen and the Gulf; and most importantly, the Saudi dynasty will collapse, the US will lose the Middle East; Israel becomes totally isolated, and the Palestinians may rise up and win.

Whether the US will allow itself to be kicked out of the Middle East without a war remains to be seen.

The British-American-Israeli Alliance

Five areas of serious confrontation are in progress in the Middle East: Syrian, Iraqi, Saudi-Yemeni, Israeli-Palestinian, and Israeli-Lebanese, and all five are interconnected. The key confrontation of the five is the Syrian conflict. A victory in Syria by either side will decide the fate of the Middle East and the world. There can be no compromise, hence there is a danger of wider conflict.

If the American side wins, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon would be partitioned along ethnic and religious lines. The biggest winner would be Israel, and the biggest losers would be the Palestinians; they would probably be expelled from their homeland. Gas and oil pipelines would be built from Qatar and other Gulf States to Europe. Also, oil and gas from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen would be shipped to Europe via the same pipelines to lessen the European dependence on Russian gas. The dollar would be the official currency of trade. Turkey would also be a winner, but its reward would be minimal. The biggest losers of all would be the Arabs of the Middle East, they would be totally emasculated; other big losers would include the Russians and the Iranians.

If, on the other hand, the Syrian government wins, Syria would become a very powerful state and a great rebuilding would take place. The Syrian people will have enough strength to rebuild their country. With a Syrian victory, ISIS in Iraq would have no chance. Iraq would also rise up and become a powerful state. The Saudi, the Jordanian, and Gulf regimes would collapse. The Palestinians might even achieve their independence from Israel. The big winners would also be the Iranians and the Russians. The Europeans would start drifting towards Russia, one country at a time. And the biggest loser would be the British-American-Israeli Alliance. President Assad would become the national Arab hero who stood up to the British-America-Israeli Alliance and  ISIS.

How the wind will blow and how history will flow remains a big question. Only time will tell.

Negative Energy Flow

The essence of the Universe is energy. This essence is constant, contracting, or expanding, but nobody knows for sure. The essence of our solar system is the sun, and without  the sun there would be no life on the Earth. They say that the energy of the sun is slowly dissipating, but is still good for about several billion years before it dies. But this is just a hypothesis. In fact nobody knows for sure.

We know that economic systems develop, grow, and then go into a collapsing phase and die, but the remnants of the previous systems become key components of the new system. For instance, the chief components of capitalism are usury and a modern version of slavery which are the chief remnants of two previous systems, slavery and feudalism.

Without the discovery of the New World by Christopher Columbus in 1492, capitalism would most likely have not developed. In my earliest posts, I stated that Christopher Columbus is the Father of Capitalism. The center of capitalism became Western Europe and North America, especially, the United States.

The United States had positive energy flow when the first Dutch and English colonists stepped into North America. The land was abundantly rich and it needed  workers to exploit it. Slavery was introduced and for 250 years, slavery was the main source of wealth extraction and accumulation  for the ruling elite of the new country. The tobacco and cotton plantations needed slaves. The trade in slaves  was very prosperous as well. Many Americans were also involved in opium trade with China, which was the monopoly of the British East India Company. It was the first giant global company, a forerunner of modern American and European corporations. Adam Smith who wrote the capitalist bible,’ The Wealth of Nations’ was an officer of the Company. His view of the ‘Invisible Hand’ that runs the market is more to the fact that the British East India Company methods of conquest and control stayed invisible as to how they got control of all of  India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Burma. They also wanted to keep opium trade with China and the Afghani Wars for control of opium invisible.

Americans wanted to take part in the opium trade with China, and that is one of the main reasons why the Americans wanted independence from Britain. Forget about: ‘ No taxation without representation’; it was just a façade like ‘ the weapons of mass destruction’ in Iraq. British rule of its North American colonies was rather gentle. British taxes were barely one percent on tea. One third of American colonists moved to the Canadian Provinces of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Ontario. They were known as United Empire Loyalists. Benjamin Franklin’s son left for England.

After the Declaration of American Independence of 1776, the Slave Trade of the North Atlantic and Opium Trade with China boomed, even though Europeans were losing interest in slave trade on moral and ethical grounds. Remember, ‘Amazing Grace’ was composed by a former slave trader in 1805, but the abuse of Africa still continues.

After the Civil War and the emancipation of the slaves, the US economy exploded. By 1900,  the US was the number one manufacturing nation in the world, by quantity and not by quality.  Germany was number one in quality and second in quantity. Attempts were made to create a private Central Bank of the United States, but failed until December 23, 1913. Alexander Hamilton, the first US Treasury Secretary wanted a private central bank. In a duel with Aaron Burr, the Vice-president, Hamilton lost his life. President Andrew Jackson, the 7th President, aborted the second attempt at creating a private central bank. Abraham Lincoln, probably the greatest President of the US, stopped the third attempt. He used ‘ Green Backs’ to finance the war rather than borrow from private banks. He paid with his life in 1865. James Garfield, the 20th President paid with his life for stopping the private central bank. Finally, Woodrow Wilson, the 28th President of the US acquiesced on Dec. 23, 1913.

The Central Bank of the US would be called the Federal Reserve Bank of the US. It would be composed of 12 regional or district banks. The first amongst equals would be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and it would act as a financial life line to Wall Street. The Federal Reserve was key in pushing the US into the First World War. Germany was winning the War. They sank the Lusitania on May 7th, claiming it was carrying weapons to Britain. True! Britain denied it. Lie! The US kept quiet until 1917. Britain panicked that Germany would win the war and Russia, an ally of Britain and France would conquer Constantinople. Britain then promised  Constantinople to Russia but had no intention of keeping it, hence Churchill’s disastrous Gallipoli Campaign to capture Constantinople.

The World Zionist Movement wanted to create a homeland for the Jews in what would be British occupied Palestine. And if the British agreed, it was agreed that the US would enter the war on the side of Britain and France. They would also eliminate Russia from the war and Constantinople would not fall to Russia. Also, Italy, an ally of Germany, would enter war on the side of Britain and France. The Balfour Declaration of Britain in 1916 allowed unrestricted Jewish settlements  of Palestine. As if by magic, the US enters the war under the cry, ‘Remember the Lusitania’, Trotsky leaves New York with 20 million in gold, Lenin leaves Switzerland in a sealed train for St. Petersburg to start a Bolshevik Revolution. Italy enters the war on the side of the Allies, and bank credits to Germany stop.

In 1917, the US enters the war, and the US tobacco industry wants to help ‘our boys’ fighting in the trenches by supplying them with free cigarettes, and tobacco addiction began. When women won the right to vote in 1920, they were supplied with free cigarettes to celebrate their independence. The boom of 1920 began, and the inventions of Nikola Tesla changed the US;  alternating current, fluorescent lighting, the invention of radio, wireless energy, etc. Marconi did not invent the radio, but sent the first radio signal from Liverpool, England to Gander, Newfoundland based on Tesla’s principles. The boom collapsed in 1929, but the US had positive energy flow. It had the most gold in the world, the strongest currency, positive balance of trade, and could interfere in Latin America with impunity. Hence, it had positive energy flow.

The Second World War enhanced this positive energy, and by 1944, it was able with the help of Great Britain to create the Bretton Woods Convention which crowned the dollar as the official currency of the world. The only opponent was the USSR which had won the war against Nazi Germany.

The US had positive energy flow until a gold run in 1968. The European countries wanted to exchange their trade surpluses for gold. By 1971, the US defaulted on its gold promise. By 1973, President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger created the petro dollar. The dollar debt finance of the US and the Third World became the Modus Operandi of the day. IMF and World Bank were loan sharking all over the world, including some Communist countries of Eastern Europe such as Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia.

Consumerism or lack thereof in the Soviet Union led to the dissolution of the Soviet State, even though the basic living standard of the Soviet citizen was higher than that of US citizens. The Soviet citizen enjoyed free education, free health care, public transportation, generous maternity leave and generous holidays. US citizens have none of this in 2016. And the irony is that the Soviet State dissolved and the US still stands. Barely. The people of the US are very angry, and they want change, either by evolution or revolution. The 95 percent of Americans which I call the Precariat Class have barely enough money to survive. The energy flow of the Precariat Class is extremely negative, and never in its entire history has the US faced such a situation.

No wonder Mr. Donald Trump is popular and the Ruling Elite and its overseer class is fearful. The US must restructure its economic system and enable the Precariat Class to have a chance. Change in the US is inevitable either by evolution or by revolution. If it is by revolution, fragmentation of the US is inevitable. Only time will tell.

 

Quo Vadis, 2016?

2016 may turn out to be a very significant year. Many thought that 2015 would be the year of the stock market crash, but this didn’t happen. Many more negatives than positives occurred in 2015 though. Stock indecis reached new highs in the first half of the year, and now at the end of the year are in correction mode. It is not likely that they will crash in the last few days of trading remaining, although they could, since nobody expects it.

On the world scene, the West and Turkey were exposed as chief supporters of ISIS, in addition to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. The Paris and San Bernardino tragedies should not have been a surprise. The Russian plane disaster in Egypt was a surprise but the Western press did not moan about it. The Beirut bombing by ISIS did not get much coverage. The Turkish destruction of a Russian bomber over Syria was not really condemned by the West. The hypocrisy of the West was in full bloom in the Ukraine, the Middle East, South East Asia and other places in the world.

Also in 2015, precious metals, oil, and other commodities collapsed. The dollar was strong and Third World economies were in a severe depression. Canada, Australia, and some European states were entering a depression, but Russia just got stronger. China was trying to stabilize its economy. The Yuan became an International Reserve Currency member, and even though only as a junior partner, this is just the beginning.

What will 2016 bring? It will be much more exciting than 2015. It could be the Year of Super Black Swans. The most important event that will most likely take place is the American presidential election in November. There is a lot of anger and discontent in this country that the mainstream media does not show but which will fully manifest itself this Election Year. There is only one candidate that stands out, and that is Donald Trump. He is politically “incorrect” and people love it. All other candidates, Republican and Democratic, are nothing more than cookie cutter “apparachicks”. Powerful people in the country want to resuscitate Senator Ted Cruz, but they will not succeed; Donald Trump, on the Republican side is unstoppable and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

The economy will play a key role in these elections. In an earlier post I stated that the present US economy is based on three pillars of paper: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and all three are supported by debt. This situation cannot be sustained. The presidential election and the economy may turn out to be very ugly and a super bad Black Swan may manifest itself.

There is a war going on between Russia and the US, whether people realize this or not. The US wants to destroy Russia, leave it fragmented, and plundered. The war in the Ukraine may start any moment. The Kiev regime days are numbered. It will lash out and lose. History is on Novorossia’s side. When war starts, the Ukrainian Army will desert. Only Western mercenaries and jihadis will fight on the Kiev Junta side. The Ukrainian People will rebel and chase the Junta out of Kiev. A super Black Swan may develop in the Ukraine.

A super, super bad Black Swan may develop in the Middle East. It is sad that the West, Israel, and Turkey are supporting ISIS. There is a danger of an Israeli- Hesballah war. Hesballah is heavily engaged in operations against ISIS in Syria, so Israel may take the opportunity to attack Hesballah and get the waters of the Litani River. Israel desperately needs water. Hesballah may not be a pushover. Also, Palestanians will join in the fight against Israel. ISIS might lose the war in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has invaded Northern Iraq around Mosul. The Kurds in Turkey are rising up. Saudi Arabia is not doing well in Yemen. The US, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia may lose because they are on wrong side of History. Nuclear weapons  may be used. A super bad Black swan may develop.

The European Union is in deep crisis; it has no independent foreign policy  Economically, many of its’ countries are in a deep depression.The Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria are in a depression. France, Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are no better. Germany and Scandinavia are also suffering. The Russian sanctions have boomeranged. A super Black Swan here is not likely in 2016. A shifting of Europe from the North Atlantic to Russia is likely though, and migration will be a big problem.

Africa is waking up and wants to control its natural resources. It is shifting East. A super bad Black Swan here is not likely. Latin America is somewhat less stable. The governments of Venezuela, Brasil, and other Latin American republics will be under attack but will survive. The collapse of commodity prices and dollar debt will be a big problem for Africa and Latin America. The shift to the East will continue in this coming year.

The Indian Subcontinent will be fairly stable. The Taliban will gain strength and possibly gain power. The TAPI pipeline is being built from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to India. The Taliban will not oppose it. Iran is developing a very strong strategic partnership with Russia. This Iran-Russia partnership is one of the most natural partnerships to develop in the world. India is developing a strong relationship with Russia and Iran as well. This will continue in 2016. Putin  made a visit to Iran this year, and Prime Minister Modi of India visited Russia this week confirming the desire for this relationship.

China is developing a strong relationship with Russia. China and Russia realize they have to stick together or they will hang separately. South East Asia, despite the TPP, will move closer to China. It will develop Modus Vivendi with China. Its prosperity depends on close co-operation with China. China is the magnet that is pulling the world away from the US. A confrontation in the South China Sea is just one example. But the chances of a Black Swan in South East Asia is not very likely in 2016.

In Summary, 2016 will see increased confrontation between Russia and the US. The dollar will be under attack and gold will rise. Events occurring this year in the US will confirm that the US is in pre-revolutionary state. If powerful individuals try to eliminate Donald Trump, people will rebel. If one of the three paper pillars of the economy cracks, the whole system will collapse. The chances of nuclear war will increase. 2016 will be the beginning of the end of tall buildings, the most wasteful symbols of the system based on waste, arrogance, and greed. People will be returning to simpler things, a respect for natural things, like respect for Mother Earth. It is the only home we’ve got. Happy New Year!

 

TURKISH BOOMERANG II

Geopolitical changes of great significance are taking place in Eastern Europe, specifically in the Ukraine but also in the Middle East. The US wants at all cost to build the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf, and to the Indian Ocean, possibly to South East Asia, as far as the Philippines. But for the moment, let us study and analyse the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf: the US wants to expel Russia from the Ukraine and Syria, that’s very clear. It would also like to control Iran, but to do that, it would have to destroy it.

The US would like to reduce the relationship between the European Union and Russia to a bare minimum, but to do that it needs alternative sources of energy with which to supply Europe. The Middle East would be that source. The greatest oil and natural gas reserves in the world are located in the Middle East, and if the US and its friends were able to control those resources and their channels of delivery, it would be able to control the destinies of the entire world, East or West, North or South. So, these wars we have now in the Ukraine, Syria and Iraq are struggles for the control of the World…

Let us make some suppositions. Suppose the US and its allies win. They would end up controlling all that natural wealth, and be able to control energy supplies to Europe, China, and the Indian subcontinent. They would dictate the price denominated in DOLLARS. The dollar would become the permanent official currency of the world. In addition, if they got control of Iran, they would also control the production and export of gas from Turkmenistan. China and India would be subject to US blackmail, just as Japan was before the Second World War, with the so called ” Japanese Effect”: surrender or war. The Japanese, being proud people, chose war.They needed to get control of Indonesian oil which at the time was under Dutch control. To do that, they had to eliminate the US Pacific Fleet stationed at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii which at the time was a colonial possession of the US. By the DOLLAR becoming the permanent official currency of the world, the US would rule the world and its closest Allies would enjoy immense privilege. I will leave it to the reader or readers of this humble essay to figure out which country or countries would benefit the most…

But let us suppose the West loses. Suppose the Resistance Axis of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Hesballah of Lebanon win. Also suppose that in the struggle going on presently in the Middle East, the Saudis and the Gulf States collapse, and the Arab Nationalists who are vehemently Anti-West win. That Turkey slides into civil war, and the Kurds, who are about 20-25 %  of the Turkish population, rise up and seek their INDEPENDENCE. And, suppose that the Palestinians start their Third Intifada, sensing the victory of the Axis of Resistance… What would Israel and the US do? Would a Third World War begin???

The majority of the world agrees that ISIS or Daesh is evil, including the US, but it is secretly supporting it. It’s been bombing ISIS for more than a year with nothing to show for it! Why is Turkey, a NATO ally, openly supporting it?  If ISIS is evil, then countries fighting ISIS are on the side of Good.  Turkey, the US, the Saudis, and the others supporting ISIS are on the side of Evil. The Morals and Ethics of the Universe are on the side of Good. It is self-evident that the side fighting for Good against Evil will win. And by supporting evil, the US will not be able to build the Wall of Enmity. Also, sooner or later the dollar will not be used in world trade. So, the Turkish Boomerang will have disastrous consequences for the world, but especially for the US…

Let us be frank. The modus operandi of the US and its allies is lies and deceptions. The modus operandi of Russia and its allies is IRONY, the cosmic manifestation of truth and justice. Edgar Cayce, an American, once predicted that Russia will become the hope and salvation of the world. Only time will tell.