Category Archives: geography is destiny

Turkey, the Geo-Strategic Pivot of History

To paraphrase Napoleon: “Geography is destiny; control Constantinople, control the world.” This was true in the time of Napoleon, and it is even more true today.

Turkey was one of the most faithful allies of the US. It helped the US in the Korean War, 1950-53. A NATO member since 1950. To whatever the US wanted, Turkey said yes. Turkish labour helped rebuild post war West Germany. But Turkey was taken for granted by the West, essentially a colonial entity in possession of the most geo-strategic real estate in the world…

How things change. Today, the US and Turkey are in confrontation mode. Until July 15, 2016, Turkey embraced the US- Israeli view of Syria; Assad must go, because Assad would not buckle. There was a confrontation with Russia. A Russian plane was shot over Syria by a Turkish jet. A Russian ambassador was assassinated in Turkey. Trade sanctions were imposed on Turkey, and Russian tourists boycotted it. The US was hoping for an irrevocable confrontation between Russia and Turkey. A coup d’état against Erdogan, if successful, would make this confrontation with Russia permanent. This confrontation would re-enforce the Wall of Enmity which the US is building from the Baltic, the Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, India, yes India through the Straits of Malacca to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. If the coup d’etat had been successful, Russia would have been eliminated from Middle East involvement.

But the coup did not succeed, possibly with Russian help. Erdogan apologized to Putin, and relations normalized. Slowly, rapprochement between Turkey and Russia became friendly. And then suddenly, three countries: Iran, Turkey, and Russia synchronized their Middle East policy especially in regards to Syria and Lebanon and Hezbollah. So, now, instead of Russian disarray, one has US-Israeli-Saudi disarray.

How will things play out? World events cannot be taken in isolation. The Wall of Enmity has been breached in two places: the Ukraine and Turkey. The Wall of Enmity in North East Asia is stable, because the tension is high.

The situation in the Ukraine is different because of the German situation. Germany is entering a period of uncertainty. Whoever and under what circumstances the next German government is formed, the German people will demand independence, denuclearization, and the end of US military occupation. The Germans are increasingly yearning for an independent foreign policy. The US will try to prevent a German exodus by increasing tensions and the chances of war in the Ukraine and blaming Russia as the aggressor.

Turkey is the key geostrategic pivot of History. The Turks are a proud, nationalistic people. Under Erdogan, they have had the first truly independent foreign policy since the time of Kemal Ataturk. They will not buckle to Western pressure. They do not care for the EU. By being independent and moving closer to Eurasia, Turkey will help reduce or even eliminate Western influence in the Middle East. Turkey will withdraw from NATO very slowly and the US will not push. If Turkey withdraws, NATO unravels. That is the one thing the US does not want.

Another attempt at a coup d’état cannot be excluded.

 

 

 

 

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German Election of September 24, 2017

The most important election of the key state of the E.U. is taking place tomorrow, September 24,2017, and the US mainstream media is giving it scant coverage. The elections are important because the results will direct or influence German geostrategic policy and orientation for the years to come

There are many parties in Germany: the Christian Democratic Union of chancellor Merkel, the Social Democratic Party, Der Link Party or the Left Party, the Free Democratic Party, the Greens, and the Alternativa fur Deutschland, aka an Alternative for Germany.

The Christian Democrats or CDU are leading. They may win plurality of the votes but no majority. The Social Democrats may gain plurality but no majority. Minor parties may play key roles in coalitions that may be formed which would govern Germany.

All minor parties are important, but two of them specifically. The Free Democrats of the right who formed many postwar coalitions with C.D.U. that ruled Germany. The other minor party is the Alternativa for Deutschland, or AfD considered extreme right with no members in the Bundestag, but is third in the polls.

Whatever garnitura comes to rule Germany, if Alternaiva fur Deutschland  wins seats in the Bundestag, it will become the most vocal opposition party in all of Germany. The AfD will demand an end to the US occupation of Germany, a modus vivendi with Russia, and the right to join the one belt,one road arrangement with China. Trade by rail system over Afro-Eurasia will avoid a possible US sea blockade. All this will be anathema to US geostrategic interests.

German elections are very important for the E.U. and the US.

Germany will switch and pull Europe East

Napoleon said that geography is destiny. Europe is the largest peninsula of the Eurasian Continent. Since 1945, Europe, especially Western Europe has been under US domination. NATO was formed as a protection against the so called threat from the USSR. The threat was more imaginary than real. It served US interests though. The US pushed the concept of a North Atlantic World, composed of Western Europe, Canada, and the US. When the US speaks of “International Community” they speak of this particular region . When they say that the international community has ” isolated” Russia, they mean this region. When the USSR dissolved, Eastern Europe joined this North Atlantic World. This Europe became the chief pillar of American power. To keep this Europe under American domination, the US is trying to build  a Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia. This Wall of Enmity would run from the three Baltic States in the North East of Europe, through Poland to the South East into the Ukraine. Hence, the present situation in Ukraine…

Germany is the dominant power of the European Union, economically speaking. France is the nuclear power of the Union. Britain, never an eager member of the Union is the ” American Trojan Horse”. President Charles de Gaulle categorically stated  that Britain should never be allowed to be a member of the Union. Germany is in a dilemma as is the rest of Europe because they cannot grow without Russia and Eurasian interactions. Sanctions imposed by Europe serve the interests of the US only. Just ask European farmers. But, strangely Europe obeys, especially Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel. Merkel did not complain too much when the NSA was spying on her and the rest of Germany. The NSA is probably still spying on Merkel. The German People as a whole are very upset. I told one German why are Germans upset. I explained that, after all, they are still occupied by Britain and the US. I also told him that thanks to Russia, Germany is unified but thanks to the US, Germany is still occupied.

Besides spying, two other things have happened in the last two years and recently. Germany is the second largest holder of physical gold, in the amount of about 3400 tons. That is lots of gold.  1500 tons of gold is held in the US. Germany wants to repatriate the precious metal. Repatriation is very slow on the American side. They want to use gold to control Germany. The other issue that is negatively affecting  the US-German relationship is the Volkswagen fiasco. VW was caught cheating on pollution. Justifiably so. But the problem is all car companies are cheating.  It’s just that VW was singled out for reasons that have geopolitical significance and this is not apparent to the public.  VW is the largest car company in the world, with huge operations in Afro-Eurasia, especially in China. VW also looms large in Latin America. World wide it is out competing American car companies. Hence, the reason for singling out VW. Germans are furious. Germans will not take this kneeling down to the US. The refugee problem is a nightmare to Europe, especially to Germany. The refugee problem is the direct  and catastrophic result of US policies in Central Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Destabilizing the Middle East is immensely beneficial to the US and Israel. Putin has thrown the monkey wrench by supporting  Assad of Syria. Iran has joined in. The Alliance of the Humble has been formed; they are Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon {Hesbullah}, and Russia. China and Egypt are joining the alliance as well. As a matter of fact , the rest of the world is supporting the Alliance of the Humble. Great and tragic events are taking place in the Middle East. Nuclear exchange cannot be excluded.

Germany and Europe are at a cross roads. The US is trying to impose the Trans Atlantic Free Trade agreement at which many European countries and people are balking. This trade agreement would be the economic equivalent of NATO. Germany and other European countries want total independence. They want totally independent economic and foreign policy. If it means turning East, they will turn East, embracing and integrating  economically and politically with the civilizations of Africa and Eurasia. The Ukraine problem will solve itself. The people of the Ukraine will rise up and overthrow the junta and take their rightful historical place with Russia. The New Silk Road will criss  cross  Afro-Eurasia. Latin America will join.  This will be the triumph of the Humble over the Arrogant, provided there is no nuclear war. Only time will tell…