Category Archives: Bashar Al Assad

US/Israel vs Iran

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Israel claims that Iran is the greatest threat to its security. Iran will never attack Israel, unless it is attacked by them. It has no need to. The reason Israel hates Iran is because Iran supports the Palestinian cause, Hezbollah of Lebanon, and Assad of Syria. Hezbollah defends Lebanon from Israeli attacks. Iran under the Shah was the best ally in the Middle East that Israel ever had. How things change! Now, Iran is the greatest enemy of Israel. Iran does not recognize Israel since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. If Israel, supported by the US, attacks Iran it would be a big deal. A Third World War could prove to be inevitable. So, let us analyze the situation.

Israel is a very vulnerable state, despite a superiority of armaments, including nuclear weapons which Israel denies. One thing Israel does not have is water. No water, no life. The Jordan River has become a creek which Israel has had to share with the Kingdom of Jordan. The Golan Heights, Syrian land occupied by Israel in the 1967 war, supplies Israel with drinking water. Desalination and re-purification of water is but a small part of Israel’s water supply; very expensive process. It does not produce drinking water, and is energy dependent. So, Israel is forced to import drinking water from Turkey.

Israel is a growing, sophisticated, modern economy. For all life on Earth, water is an absolute necessity. Countries that are in need of more water: Jordan, Sahel Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, China and some others. But none need it as critically as Israel. Under present circumstances no Arab country such as Lebanon and Syria would willingly supply water to Israel. Israel can only get water from Lebanon and Syria by force. Hence, war in Syria.

The war in Syria was started because of water. That cannot be said officially though. War must have a noble façade to cover its real reasons. These noble reasons for war: Assad is a dictator, butcher, killing his own people, gassing them and creating refugee problems for Europe. A slogan was created: “Assad, the butcher, must go”. The Spear of Change was to be ISIS or the Islamic State, created by the UK/US/Israel. It was assumed to be easy a la Libya and Iraq with the same results: chaos. It did not happen though or, at least, not yet.

Syria appears to be winning, but the war is not over. The second phase of war is being planned.  Macron is saying that the UK/US/FR should stay in Syria to rebuild it: Unbelievable! Assad just returned his medal, the Legion of Honour to France. This is classical colonial speak that has no place today. The war in Syria will continue and expand to include Iran.

The idea of staying in Syria is to prevent an Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance. Turkey and Pakistan will join this alliance. This is important because Pakistan is a significant nuclear power in alliance with China. This alliance would be a dominant force in the Middle East and would keep the peace. This cannot be allowed to happen though, because then Israel would be contained. UK/US/FR will not allow containment of Israel; expect more war.

Presently, Israel is facing a new Palestinian Intifada with no end in sight. It is very violent and Palestinians are being killed and wounded daily. The young girl, Ahed Tamimi is the symbol of Palestinian resistance. This Intifada will go on for a long time until the Palestinians get their basic rights. Intifada will exhaust Israel. Also, Israel has been pinpricking Syria for decades with no response. MSM does not report much. Sad!

The US/UK/FR attack of last week was to demonstrate their power. Their plan was to destroy the Syrian military infrastructure. It failed. Out of 103 missiles launched, 71 were shot down, Two missiles that failed were given to Russia by Syria. French president Macron suggested that UK/US/FR should stay in Syria. If the UK/US/FR stay in Syria, guerilla war will develop against them and their allies. The country they will blame will be Iran, as they blame Iran for everything that happens in the Middle East. Israel will clamor for an attack on Iran as it has done so far, but with greater intensity and results. The US may attack Iran. Israel would then attack Hezbollah to get the waters of Lebanon, and partition Syria. But the Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance will not buckle. The Islamic world, Russia, and China would aid the Alliance. Nuclear war could become inevitable.

The Situation in the Middle East

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World alliances are shifting because of the Middle East. Geographically speaking, the Middle East is the center of Afro-Eurasia, hence the center of the world. The Greater Middle East extends from the Balkans to Pakistan and from the Caucusus Mountains, Iran to  Libya, Egypt, Sudan, the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It is one of the great geostrategic regions of the world. Control the greater Middle East and you control the world through its geography and strategic resources such as oil and gas.

Western Powers, Britain and France have been controlling the Middle East since the end of the First World War. But since !945, it has been under the rather firm control of the USA. Also, Israel, since its establishment in 1948 has been most feared factor in the Arabic and Islamic Middle East.

Today, the situation in the Middle East is precarious. Several wars are going on simultaneously: the Palestinian struggle against Israeli occupation, the Iraqi war and occupation by the US since 2003, the Turkish- Kurdish conflict, the Syrian war since 2011, and the Yemeni war of the past several years. The Saudis are very unstable. The Yemeni War is the Hanjar in the Saudi heart. It is their own fault. Jordan is also very shaky, dominated by Israel and the Saudis. Egypt is on the sidelines for the moment.

Two Islamic, non Arabic countries, Iran and Turkey are destined to play very significant roles in the area and in the world. Also, Pakistan will play a significant part. These three countries will change the flow of history because they control the most geostrategic area of the world’s geography.

The US/UK/Saudi/Israeli plan is to destroy and partition Syria. The only way to do that is to remove Assad. US/Israel also want to destroy Hezbollah, in order for Israel to get the waters of Lebanon. Without this Lebanese water resource, Israel cannot survive. No nation is viable without an abundant natural water supply.

The opposing forces of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Turkey, and Russia want to preserve the unity and territorial integrity of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

The US will use the Kurds of Syria to establish a Syrian Kurdistan in N.E. Syria. Eventually, over a decade or two, the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey and Iran would join the Syrian Kurdistan which would create Greater Kurdistan in alliance with an enlarged Israel and the US. In the ensuing conflict Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey would be partitioned or even destroyed. Russia would be kicked out. All the wealth of the Middle East and its geostrategic real estate would be under US/ Israeli control; this is the ultimate plan of the Neocons.

The foundations of these grand strategic plans are very fragile. The US is threatening to bomb Syria, specifically Damascus and the presidential palace on the basis of false accusations that Syria is using chemical weapons in Ghouta. The US has used this excuse in the past to bomb the country. Russia said it will oppose any US action. If the US acts, confrontation between the US and Russia is inevitable. Naval forces of both countries are in a position of confrontation. The US Ambassador, Niki Haley, delivered a very aggressive speech at the UN Security Council a week ago. Turkey has announced plans to control the Syrian Kurdish area to the Iraqi border. Also, Iraq has agreed for Turkish troops to enter Iraqi Kurdistan. This will lead to an inevitable confrontation with the US. Also, Hezbollah is expecting and waiting for an Israeli attack on Lebanon and Syria.

In all seriousness, a big confrontation, possibly a third world war, is around the corner. We will see.

Turkey, the Geo-Strategic Pivot of History

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To paraphrase Napoleon: “Geography is destiny; control Constantinople, control the world.” This was true in the time of Napoleon, and it is even more true today.

Turkey was one of the most faithful allies of the US. It helped the US in the Korean War, 1950-53. A NATO member since 1950. To whatever the US wanted, Turkey said yes. Turkish labour helped rebuild post war West Germany. But Turkey was taken for granted by the West, essentially a colonial entity in possession of the most geo-strategic real estate in the world…

How things change. Today, the US and Turkey are in confrontation mode. Until July 15, 2016, Turkey embraced the US- Israeli view of Syria; Assad must go, because Assad would not buckle. There was a confrontation with Russia. A Russian plane was shot over Syria by a Turkish jet. A Russian ambassador was assassinated in Turkey. Trade sanctions were imposed on Turkey, and Russian tourists boycotted it. The US was hoping for an irrevocable confrontation between Russia and Turkey. A coup d’état against Erdogan, if successful, would make this confrontation with Russia permanent. This confrontation would re-enforce the Wall of Enmity which the US is building from the Baltic, the Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, India, yes India through the Straits of Malacca to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. If the coup d’etat had been successful, Russia would have been eliminated from Middle East involvement.

But the coup did not succeed, possibly with Russian help. Erdogan apologized to Putin, and relations normalized. Slowly, rapprochement between Turkey and Russia became friendly. And then suddenly, three countries: Iran, Turkey, and Russia synchronized their Middle East policy especially in regards to Syria and Lebanon and Hezbollah. So, now, instead of Russian disarray, one has US-Israeli-Saudi disarray.

How will things play out? World events cannot be taken in isolation. The Wall of Enmity has been breached in two places: the Ukraine and Turkey. The Wall of Enmity in North East Asia is stable, because the tension is high.

The situation in the Ukraine is different because of the German situation. Germany is entering a period of uncertainty. Whoever and under what circumstances the next German government is formed, the German people will demand independence, denuclearization, and the end of US military occupation. The Germans are increasingly yearning for an independent foreign policy. The US will try to prevent a German exodus by increasing tensions and the chances of war in the Ukraine and blaming Russia as the aggressor.

Turkey is the key geostrategic pivot of History. The Turks are a proud, nationalistic people. Under Erdogan, they have had the first truly independent foreign policy since the time of Kemal Ataturk. They will not buckle to Western pressure. They do not care for the EU. By being independent and moving closer to Eurasia, Turkey will help reduce or even eliminate Western influence in the Middle East. Turkey will withdraw from NATO very slowly and the US will not push. If Turkey withdraws, NATO unravels. That is the one thing the US does not want.

Another attempt at a coup d’état cannot be excluded.

 

 

 

 

Very Short Observations III

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US decertification of the Iran nuclear deal is very unwise. It has given big momentum to two movements in the world: the dollarization of the world, and, ironically, the isolation of the US, (instead of Russia). In 2014, President Obama imposed sanctions on Russia because of the Ukraine and Crimea returning to Russia of its own volition, and made the claim that Russia  would face isolation; never happened.

The US imposed severe sanctions on Iran. The EU followed. But despite these sanctions, Iran grew stronger, and is the dominant regional power, along with Turkey. Iran with Hasbollah of Lebanon and Russia is enabling Assad of Syria to win. ISIS is being defeated in Iraq and Syria; Israel is in a panic. Israel insists something must be done about Iran; will the US be induced to attack Iran?

The Ukraine is on the verge of rebellion. Misha Shalikashvilli, ex-president of Georgia and ex-governor of Odessa, is leading the charge; things remain to be seen. Ukrainians in general want to be with Russia, as well Byela Rus, Kazakhstan, and other republics of the former USSR. It is only matter of time before the armed forces join the people in the streets of Kiev and overthrow Poroshenko.

In the Middle East, a huge alliance is forming: Turkey, Iran. Iraq, Hesbollah of Lebanon, Yemen. Pakistan is drifting towards the Alliance. The Pakistani contribution to the Alliance will be nuclear. China is a strong ally of Pakistan. Turkey is definitely drifting away from the US, as is Pakistan.

It is possible that the US will lose the Middle East; only Israel will remain. The US is moving into Africa, especially former French Africa. It is rich in minerals such as uranium, gold, iron, copper, etc.; it is also rich in hydrocarbons. Losing four military personnel in Niger is no accident. The reality is that the US is involved in all of Africa. The idea is to prevent Africa from falling under the influence of China, ” the One Belt, One Road” system.

China is introducing  the “Petro-Yuan System” in the oil trade. This could be a very severe blow to dollar domination. Venezuela, Iran, Russia, others will participate in Petro-Yuan System. De-dollarization is accelerating. Many a US politician has said:” We will protect our way of life whatever it takes.” In other words, de-dollarization will not be allowed to succeed. Good reason to have a war.

Syrian War II

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The ISIS stage of the Syrian war is changing; the US approach is changing. In addition to supporting ISIS it has also thrown its support behind the Kurds of Syria and Iraq. The plan to partition Syria and Lebanon has not changed. The occult plan to remove Assad and Partition Syria should have been accomplished by the end of 2014 but plans did not pan out; even the poison gas trick did not work.

The plan to remove Assad and to implement “Partition Syria” is still the goal, except it now has a sense of urgency. Assad is still in power and the Syrian Army is getting stronger. Assad is resilient and tough like his father Hafez was. Hafez would not buckle under US pressure and recognize the State of Israel, as did Egypt under Anvar Al Sadat and Jordan in the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter. Lebanon would also not recognize Israel. By recognizing Israel, Anwar Al Sadat paid with his life. He was assassinated in 1979.

Israel thought it could partition Lebanon by itself, and get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River. Israel, like any other state, is not viable without an abundance of fresh water, and their attempt did not succeed. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 2006 failed. Hesbollah gave Israel a very bloody nose. Israel sustained heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. The US and Israel decided to dismember Syria by proxy and so the Islamic State, ISIS, was created. The Syrian war started in earnest in 2011, the year that Gaddafi of Libya was impaled and killed. Remember what Hillary said: “We came, we saw, and he died. Ha! Ha !” Sick mind. Putting a demented twist on Caesar’s immortal words: Vene, Vidi, Vici.

By 2013, they blamed Assad for a chemical attack; it didn’t work. By 2014, the slogan was: Assad must go. Assad did not go. Russian support of Syria increased as did Iranian and that of Hesbollah of Lebanon. With their help, Assad was able to liberate the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, as well as Aleppo. Israel would bomb the Syrian Army position in support of ISIS. Even during so called peace time, prior to 2011, Israeli jets would regularly fly over Damascus and the summer residence of the President of Syria; Syria would not respond.

The situation today is very critical. The US has realized that the only way to partition Syria is to establish an independent Kurdistan out of North East Syria and North East Iraq. The US has forces in Iraq not to help Iraq fight ISIS but to control it and to delay its victory over ISIS. Independent Iraq would help Assad and the US wants to prevent that; the Iraqis know that, Especially Muqtada al Sader and the Shias. The Syrian war is heating up. Turkey will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Severe estrangement is developing between US and Turkey and Turkey will probably leave NATO and abandon the US.

The US shot down a Syrian jet over Syria, an independent state and member of UN. In all honesty, this is a violation of International law. Syria is not an enemy of the US, nor has Syria asked for US help. Also, Syria is not a threat to US security. The actions of the US also violates the morals and ethics of the Universe. There is no justification for such actions except raw power. If the US persists in such actions, there will be a reaction. Remember the Third Law of Motion: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia will strengthen Syrian air defenses and US planes and drones will start falling from the sky a la Vietnam War. It is possible that Karma is based on the Third Law of Motion. Iran will also increase its help to Syria.

If the Kurds proclaim their independence with US help, Turkey will enter the fray on the side of Syria. If that happens, the US will lose. Would the US bomb Turkey? Possibly, but not likely. However, again, anything is possible.

Increased Iranian help, let us say, 200,000 Iranian Troops or Irano-Turkish combination of 300,000 troops would arouse US-Israeli-British ire and a huge Middle East War would begin. The war would engulf Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Yemen. The Saudi dynasty and Jordanian monarchy would collapse. The petro dollar would be finished. Oil prices would skyrocket. The EU and the US would enter into super depression. The rest of the world would  not be any better. However, countries connected by land from the Pacific- Indian Ocean to the Atlantic would start to coalesce. Afro-Eurasia would start coalescing. The US and the UK would be excluded.

The plan of the US is partition of Syria via Kurdistan which would become an ally of Israel, supplying it with precious fresh water from the Euphrates as well as oil. The second reason is the humiliating defeat of Russia and its’ eviction from the Middle East. The third reason is the destruction and conquest of Iran, the enemy of Israel and Saudis. By controlling Iran, the US would be able to control the Persian Gulf. It also would enable the US to control Central Asia. Just look the geography of the area.  Extra big war is in the works in the Middle East which may go nuclear.

Syria and the Third World War

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Assad presently has the upper hand in the Syrian War. It appears that ISIS maybe on the run. The US still has plans to topple Assad and partition Syria. The US is looking for options though, and has decided to play the Kurdish card in North East Syria along the Euphrates River. As expected, the Turks are very upset.

The US is in Zugzwang with respect to Syria. The US was hoping that so called ‘ Moderate Terrorists’ would topple Assad. It did not work. The US is still using ISIS covertly and Israel is supporting them occultly. That is not enough. Syria and Assad are getting stronger and stronger daily.

So, what to do? The US would like to entice NATO to overthrow Assad. A unified NATO attack via Turkey or Jordan or from both areas would  possibly be a winning move. An attack, of let us say, 200,000 NATO troops under US command would do the job. Possibly? The “official reason” for an invasion would be to fight ISIS; the real reason would be to partition Syria and destroy Assad.

Would Syria and its allies buckle under NATO pressure?  Not likely, but war would widen. Turkey would leave NATO and not participate against Syria. Israel would enter the fray. Palestinians would rise up. Egypt would militarize the Sinai. The Saudi dynasty, Jordanian monarchy, and Gulf states would be overthrown; the people of these monarchies would side with Syria.

The price of oil would skyrocket. The dollar would be rejected as a payment. Western economies would collapse. The US would be caught in Zugzwang. Would the US go nuclear, possibly? Is the Third World War inevitable?

 

Syria, Turkey, Kurds, Israel, and the US.

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The Syrian war is entering a critical phase. Alliances are shifting but the goal has not and the goal is this: Partition Syria and remove Assad. The original proxy army of the US and Israel has not been too successful of late, but one cannot dismiss them. ISIS has proven that it has many lives; moderates and extremists.

The US support for ISIS is well known in the Middle East as is Israeli. Further cooperation will not bear much fruit. The US is betting now on the Kurds. If the Kurds obtain an autonomous area in the North-East of Syria, the area could become an anchor of US power in Syria and the rest of the Middle East.

The problem is Turkey. Turkey will not tolerate any autonomous region in Syria that is Kurdish, so the US finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Turkey has been a faithful ally of the US since right after the Second World War. Also, Turkey has been a close friend of Israel. Most of the fresh water that Israel needs comes from Turkey. All three countries, US, Turkey, and Israel were, and possibly still are, supporters of ISIS.

The confrontation is increasing between Turkey and the US. Presently, Turkey is sitting on the fence. It is anchored in the West but wants to break free. This is a dilemma of historic proportions. If and when it occurs it will be a geo -strategically earth shaking event. If it happens, the US will be forced to leave Incerlik airbase. It is possible that diplomatic relations will be severed a la Iran.

Syria will shape the alliances of the region for years to come. Turkey has no choice but to side with Syria. This will guarantee Syrian unity and independence. The Kurds will have autonomy within a Syrian state. The US and Israel oppose such an arrangement, so more war is inevitable.

If this re-arrangement of alliances takes place, the end result will be as follows: Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Turkey will be backed by Russia and the opposing forces will be composed of ISIS, Peshmerga of Kurdistan National Government, the Saudis, the Gulf States, and Israel backed by the US.

If the US side wins though, the result will be as follows: Syria and Lebanon will be partitioned and Assad will be gone; water will flow to Israel from the Litani and Euphrates rivers; gas and oil will flow from the Gulf to Europe, decreasing EU dependence on Russian gas; a Kurdish republic will be established in N. E. Syria; Turkey and Iran will be weakened and, most important, Russia will be out of the Middle East.

However, if Syria wins, the following will happen: Syria stays united and much stronger under Assad; Turkey joins the East and its power is enhanced; Iranian power is enhanced as it becomes dominant in Iraq and Yemen and the Gulf; and most importantly, the Saudi dynasty will collapse, the US will lose the Middle East; Israel becomes totally isolated, and the Palestinians may rise up and win.

Whether the US will allow itself to be kicked out of the Middle East without a war remains to be seen.

How Will Syria Turn Out?

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Peaceful resolution of Syria is not Likely. Larger war is inevitable. The US has just upped the ante. To show to the World that America is great again, Trump wants to win in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen, or where ever else conflicts start.

Of all the conflicts listed, Syria is the most critical, followed by the Ukraine. Bombing Syria for an unproven gas attack by Assad is a serious escalation. No investigation to prove who did it, just a claim without facts that Assad did it. A gas attack by ISIS or Al Nusra and then blaming Assad is more likely what happened. By this action the US seeks the removal of Assad and to partition Syria, which would immensely benefit Israel and possibly, the Kurds; Turkey would be a loser.

According to the Third Law of Motion: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Assad will be reinforced by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Iran might be willing to commit 50,000 troops or more and the Persians are tough fighters. To counter the Iranians, the US would be forced to commit an equivalent amount of troops. Would Congress allow this? Very likely. Why? Because Congress considers Iran an enemy of Israel, therefore, automatically an enemy of the US. Israel would attack Syria in order to fight the Iranians. Israel is already attacking Syria. Recently, Israel lost a plane over Syria. Hezbollah would join on a much larger scale than now in order to fight Israel.

Turkey is the wild card. If the US commits a large number of troops and allies itself with the Kurds, Turkey will expel the US from Incerlik and join Assad. The game would then be over. Will Turkey do that remains to be seen.

Another card that the US could play and will play is the Ukraine. The US would entice the Ukraine to attack Donbas, and Russia would be faced with two wars. For the Ukraine, Donbas is a hard nut to crack; it would lose all its teeth and lower jaw.

Iraq must also be considered as a very important factor. Iraq has a chance to be very powerful and an ally of Iran and Syria. The US is not eager for Iraq to take control of Mosul. If ISIS loses Mosul, the US would lose control of Iraq. Muqtada Al Sadar, the Iraqi Shia leader, will not allow any US presence in Iraq.  Iraq will also help Syria.

Most likely the Syrian war will expand. The US may try to go for the kill with Israeli and Kurdish help. Turkish help would be better but may not be available. One thing is certain: big war is coming to the Middle East, and the winners are unknown at this time.

The losers could be the occult participants in the Syrian war. They have greatest interest in destroying the Syrian state and Assad.

The Turkish Blow Back?

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There is a lot of nonsense being written lately about the unsuccessful Turkish coup. The claim has been made in the Western press that Erdogan staged the event, or that it was carried out by junior rank officers and was doomed to failure. It is all lies, sheer fabricated lies. These lies convey a sense of disappointment on the part of the West that the coup had failed. There is absolutely no rejoicing in the West that the coup has failed, and that the democratically elected President Erdogan of Turkey was able to crush the revolt. Strange, very strange indeed!

The coup was very well organized, but the assumption on which it was based was false. The premise was that the people would support the coup, but the opposite happened, the people supported the President when he called the people to go out into the streets and oppose it. The only people who supported the coup were the pro-American elites in the military and in the government. But this was not enough, because the people were against it. (The previous four coups from 1960 to 1997 were successful because the majority of people did not oppose the revolt, or did not care. How things change!)

Turkey has been a faithful ally of the US and Israel. Turkey supplies nearly half of Israel’s supply of fresh water. No country is viable without fresh water. In Syria, it was supporting the US and Israeli attempt to overthrow President Assad and partition Syria into smaller regions which would be controlled by Israel. The Kurds would be allowed a state carved out of Syria and Northern Iraq which would then attract Turkish Kurds to form a larger Kurdistan, and which would be very destabilizing to the existence of the Turkish State.

The shooting down of the Russian unarmed bomber over Syria ordered by, at the time, Turkish prime minister Davutoglu in 2015 changed everything. The US regarded this event positively because it increased the animosity between Russia and Turkey, especially at a time when the US is building the Wall of Enmity between the West and Russia stretching from the Baltic States, Ukraine, Poland, The Balkans, Turkey, Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan to South Korea. It would be an unbreakable wall that would hem in Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea.

But things never work out exactly as planned. The Russian plane shoot down changed the Russia-Turkish relations from mutual reciprocity to mutual animosity. For downing its plane, Russia responded with a massive economic reaction, affecting tourism, agricultural products, construction, pipelines, and nuclear energy. Turkey was stunned. No aid was coming from NATO under Article Five. The Turks were on their own. The Syrian War intensified as Russia had intervened, ISIS and other groups which the US supported were on the run. Refugee crises were created which did not benefit the European Union.

The Turkish Kurds were getting restless and violence inside the Turkey was increasing. Wars in Syria and Iraq were not benefiting the Turks. Being member of NATO means only one thing being subservient to the interests of the US. Erdogan chose independence for Turkey and from now on, Turkey would have an independent foreign policy, if that means leaving NATO, it will leave NATO. He dismissed his pro-US prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu and replaced him by Binil Yildirim, an individual who has national Turkish interests at heart. Erdogan apologized to Russia for the downing of the plane and Putin reciprocated by lifting the Russian tourist ban and  ban on construction. The two leaders will meet in early August. What a change!

President Erdogan announced his desire for rapprochement with Russia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. It appears that ISIS and other terrorists are feeling the heat. The Americans panicked and a coup d’état was arranged that was doomed to fail, even though it was long in the planning.

There will be a black out on much of the news coming out of Turkey that will be perceived as negative to US interests. The Turkish purges that have been ordered by Erdogan for all levels of society that may be pro-western.  A great confrontation is developing between the US and Turkey. There is no turning back, unless, another pro-American coup succeeds, an event that is likely but will not succeed. Turkey will close Incerlik Air force base in south east Turkey, and, will leave NATO. The oxygen will be cut to ISIS and other similar groups. Assad will reclaim his country, as Iraq will reclaim its independence. There is certainty that there will be coups d’état in Saudi Arabia,  the Gulf States, and Jordan. All these countries, including Turkey, will join the Eurasian Union and the Shanghai Co-operation Organization. The currency of trade will be the yuan, gold, or the ruble.

This Turkish tectonic shift East will have a profound effect on world history. Only time will tell.

A coveted prize, the Litani River of Lebanon

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The Middle East has plenty of oil and gas, but water is in short supply. No country feels the lack of a natural water supply like Israel. Israel has only one river, which it has to share with Jordan,and that is the River Jordan which is being gradually depleted as it empties into the Dead Sea. Some natural water comes from the Syrian Golan Heights captured in the 1967 War, and desalination of sea water is another source but it is rather expensive. So, Israel is forced to import water, almost close to half of what it needs, from Turkey.

Israel is highly advanced  technically. It also has thriving agriculture with migrant workers from Africa. Both sectors use large amounts of water. The rate of water usage constantly increases, hence the constant need for more water. The adjacent state of Lebanon has fairly abundant water resources.

Israel is probably the fourth most powerful country in the world. It has nuclear weapons, a delivery system Jericho rocket range of 11000 kilometers, and a sea based missile system on diesel submarines supplied by Germany. It also has an anti-missile system, called the Iron Dome. It produces its own tanks, The Merkawa; its own jet fighter, the Kfir, plus other high tech weapons. It also gets most of its modern jet fighters from the US. The Israeli Defence Forces are highly trained and motivated. So Israel has everything except the water, and that is the problem. War over water is inevitable; the Litani River of Lebanon is in play.

Israel wants to play the victim, it wants to claim it had no choice. Its main opponent is Hezbollah of Lebanon. Hezbollah is well armed with modern weapons, including missiles which can reach any part of Israel. Hezbollah is presently helping President Assad of Syria. They are battle tested and will fight an asymmetrical war. The outcome could be very uncertain. Only time will tell.