Category Archives: donbass

How Will Syria Turn Out?

Peaceful resolution of Syria is not Likely. Larger war is inevitable. The US has just upped the ante. To show to the World that America is great again, Trump wants to win in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen, or where ever else conflicts start.

Of all the conflicts listed, Syria is the most critical, followed by the Ukraine. Bombing Syria for an unproven gas attack by Assad is a serious escalation. No investigation to prove who did it, just a claim without facts that Assad did it. A gas attack by ISIS or Al Nusra and then blaming Assad is more likely what happened. By this action the US seeks the removal of Assad and to partition Syria, which would immensely benefit Israel and possibly, the Kurds; Turkey would be a loser.

According to the Third Law of Motion: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Assad will be reinforced by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Iran might be willing to commit 50,000 troops or more and the Persians are tough fighters. To counter the Iranians, the US would be forced to commit an equivalent amount of troops. Would Congress allow this? Very likely. Why? Because Congress considers Iran an enemy of Israel, therefore, automatically an enemy of the US. Israel would attack Syria in order to fight the Iranians. Israel is already attacking Syria. Recently, Israel lost a plane over Syria. Hezbollah would join on a much larger scale than now in order to fight Israel.

Turkey is the wild card. If the US commits a large number of troops and allies itself with the Kurds, Turkey will expel the US from Incerlik and join Assad. The game would then be over. Will Turkey do that remains to be seen.

Another card that the US could play and will play is the Ukraine. The US would entice the Ukraine to attack Donbas, and Russia would be faced with two wars. For the Ukraine, Donbas is a hard nut to crack; it would lose all its teeth and lower jaw.

Iraq must also be considered as a very important factor. Iraq has a chance to be very powerful and an ally of Iran and Syria. The US is not eager for Iraq to take control of Mosul. If ISIS loses Mosul, the US would lose control of Iraq. Muqtada Al Sadar, the Iraqi Shia leader, will not allow any US presence in Iraq.  Iraq will also help Syria.

Most likely the Syrian war will expand. The US may try to go for the kill with Israeli and Kurdish help. Turkish help would be better but may not be available. One thing is certain: big war is coming to the Middle East, and the winners are unknown at this time.

The losers could be the occult participants in the Syrian war. They have greatest interest in destroying the Syrian state and Assad.

Ukraine is about to attack Novorussiya

Violence is increasing along the line of demarcation in Novorussiya*. The Kiev Regime is planning something, and it’s a matter of war or collapse, so it has chosen attack. Heavy equipment has been moved to the front, and a new mobilization of fresh troops has taken place but the results have not been impressive. The economy is collapsing and the regime of Yatsenyuk is on the verge of self destruction. Poroshenko wants to replace Yatsenyuk with American-born finance minister Jaresko. The Americans are getting impatient, and they want action…

The US is afraid that the European Union is going to lift sanctions against Russia this year. If this happens it will mean that Europe wants a rapprochement with Russia. They realize that a future without Russia is not possible. The war in the Ukraine would create animosity towards Russia which would be music to US ears.

The second reason is that this is the last chance for an offensive by the Kiev regime against Donbass and Lugansk. They are in the same dilemma that Germany was in before the Battle of Kursk in the Second World War.

The third reason is Syria. The US and its coalition is not doing well. Turkey and President Erdogan are going berserk; they are pounding the Kurds of South East Turkey. It seems that civil war is inevitable for them. So the US hopes that a war in the Ukraine might improve its position in Syria.

Spring is here! An ideal time for war. The Ukrainians have been re-equipped by the US. US military personnel are swarming all over the country. Numerous mercenaries have been in the East. Also, both sides have realized that the situation can only be resolved by war. The Minsk II Agreement was never honored by the Ukraine, but the failure has been blamed on Russia.

When the Ukrainian attack comes it will be massive, but the Novorussiya line will hold. Donbas will then counter attack in three directions: Kiev, the River Dnieper region; Mariupol, Odessa region; and Kharkov. People will join the Donbass Army, and the Ukrainian Army will mostly desert. The Kiev regime leaders and the oligarchs will try to escape to Canada, Israel, the US, and some other countries. Many will be caught and punished. The Ukraine will take its rightful place in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Only time will tell.

*Novorussiya is the region of the Eastern Ukraine which is in rebellion. It consists of the two provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk

TURKISH BOOMERANG

The Turkish downing of the Russian plane in Syria is a serious provocation with unknown long term consequences. It was planned ahead by two countries, Turkey and the US, because they both support the Islamic State or ISIS. They want control of Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon by hook or by crook…

The US is building the Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia via the Baltic States, and Poland, through the Ukraine, which I mentioned in one of my previous posts. It wants to extend that Wall of Enmity to the Middle East via Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. The five pivot states of this extended Wall of Enmity would be Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and possibly, Jordan would be partitioned or re-arranged to serve the interests of the US and some other key countries such as Israel. But Russia and Iran stand in the way, and Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are the battle grounds. The airspace of these three countries is constantly being violated by Israel and the US with not a peep about it in the Western press.

How have events been developing in the Middle East? The US has been bombing ISIS for more than a year, with absolutely no effect, because they were not really bombing ISIS but Syrian infrastructure. Western analysts and media were predicting the collapse of Syria and the removal of Assad. Russia, Iran, and Hesballah stepped in, and now, it seems ISIS and other groups are on the run. This panicked the US and Turkey. The US and Turkey could not send troops into Syria to help ISIS. What would the world say? Turkey was never friendly to Russia. It milked Russia via construction projects in Russia, Russian tourism, and cheap Russian gas. The Russians, being sincere, mistook this for friendship. It was far from it. The Turkish stream was a vague arrangement. The US did not want a Russian South stream, why would they want a Turkish stream? The US secretly agreed to help ISIS with which Turkey whole heartedly agreed, and which Turkey already was helping along with the Saudi Arabian and Gulf Monarchies. The US and Turkey planned this provocation, especially now with ISIS on the run. The Paris tragedy confused the situation but did not derail the planning. The plan was to shoot the Russian bomber, and accuse Russia of a violation of Turkish airspace. The Russian pilot would have supposedly been given warnings to steer clear. Imagine, ten warnings in five minutes. The Turks showed some real concern, and then shot the plane from behind. A “real stab in the back” as declared by President Putin, who knows what he is talking about. President Obama defended the Turkish action by saying that every country has a right to defend itself. Of course every country allied with the US does, but Syria not allied with the US so it has no right. This is how the world works these days.

Turkey went to NATO, crying that Russia violated its airspace, and despite repeated warnings, had no choice but to shoot the plane from behind. Turkey was hoping that NATO would use Article 5 (an attack on one is an attack on all) to confront Russia, but this did not happen. Why it did not happen is because the TRUTH sabotaged the plan. The whole world knew that Turkey stabbed Russia in the back. Vague support was given to Turkey but nothing else. President Hollande of France came to the White House on November 24 to organize an aggressive response to ISIS, but “Francois’s”   ideas were only politely considered. Today, November 26, the President of France is in Moscow conferring with Putin.

What will be the consequences of all this? President Obama has probably instructed Turkey to be tough. Initially, Russia wants a sincere  apology and compensation, but Erdogan will offer nothing. Russia should be concerned of what is going on in Ukraine, for instance the cutting off of electricity to the Crimea and the banning of all Russian flights. The Ukraine is also mobilizing troops in Donbas. A sudden Ukrainian attack cannot be excluded. Americans are training Ukrainian troops as we speak. Ukrainians are waiting for the US order to attack. Novorussia must be ready. The possibility of an ISIS attack in Russia should not be dismissed. The Black Sea passage blockade can also not be excluded,but I am sure Russia has alternative contingencies for everything.

Turkey will face some serious consequences in spite of the bravado of Erdogan and the economic losses will be severe. Russian tourists, food exports, Turkish firms working in Russia will all be lost or cut. The losses will be in the billions of dollars and will send Turkey into a severe recession, if not a full-blown depression. The world will shun Turkey for openly supporting ISIS. The Kurds of Turkey will rise up. There could be coup d’état in Turkey. Socio-economic upheaval cannot be excluded. Morally and ethically speaking, Turkey has been severely damaged. Russian efforts in Syria will intensify and this “stab in the back” will not be soon forgotten,

The US is entering a serious phase of economic crisis, and it’s just around the corner. Now, the whole world knows that secretly, the US is supporting ISIS. Whether the US succeeds in building the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean remains to be seen. Nemesis is waiting down the road. Many European states, large and small, will distance themselves from NATO, Turkey, and the US. Only time will tell.

 

 

The Wall of Enmity

When the USSR dissolved itself in 1991, Francis Fukuyama,an American historian, proclaimed the end of history. Western Liberal Philosophy won and everything would be great and there would be no more serious conflict in the world. It was a noble assumption but totally wrong.With the collapse of the USSR, the equilibrium of the world was lost. All things in the Universe tend to go to the  lowest entropy level. A system is most stable when it uses the least amount of energy and this according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.With the demise of the USSR, the US tried to establish “Unipolarity” in the world. Our planet is bipolar. A unipolar planet cannot exist. Unipolarity failed and the US is trying to consolidate the spheres of influences in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South East Asia,and Latin America. Hence, their negotiation with South East Asia and Europe for free trade agreements with the dollar as the preferred currency of trade.To consolidate its power in Europe,it is building a “Wall of Enmity” between the European Union and Russia.

The keystone of American power in the world is Europe. Europe and Russia have been moving closer together. There has been a fusion of strategic and economic interests between the two parts of Europe .After all, Europe is nothing but a large peninsula of Afro-Eurasian landmass. As Napoleon stated, geography is destiny. Europe and Russia belong together.This is anathema to the US. Hence, build a Wall of Enmity between Russia and European Union.

The Wall of Enmity would run from three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania in the North East of Europe through Poland and end in the Ukraine in the South East. The US was hoping for military and naval bases in the Black Sea on the Crimean Peninsula. But Crimea is lost, Donbass is lost as well. As everybody knows, civil war is going on in the Ukraine. People in the rest of the Ukraine are unhappy with the junta in Kiev. Pro-Russian partisan activity is taking place in the regions of Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk, Zaporozhe, Kherson and Odessa. Also Zacarpathia and Lviv regions are unstable. The economy of the Ukraine is collapsing. Yes, Russia is keeping the Ukraine afloat.Three possibilities await the Ukraine: number one is war and Americans are eager for war.They are training and arming the regime in Kiev.If war starts Ukrainians will not really fight Donbass. Instead, they will fight the junta and the Americans.Donbass forces with the help of the rest of the Ukraine will march on Kiev. Number two: the Ukrainian Army will revolt and join the Donbass forces. Number three: the revolt of Ukrainians who will restore brotherly relations with Russia. Russia is just waiting for these outcomes. Americans are clueless about Ukrainian history, etc. The Ukrainian soul is the Russian soul. There are intimate family ties between Russians and Ukrainians. Most Ukrainian refugees are ending up in Russia where they are well received as relatives. Even the Baltic states and Poland will be knocking on Russian doors. The rest of Europe will follow,especially Italy, France, Hungary,and Germany ( once Angela Merkel is gone). The Trans-Atlantic relationship will be frozen in the icy waters of the North Atlantic. The Enmity Wall in Europe will thus not be built. We shall see.Time will tell.