Category Archives: lebanon

The British-American-Israeli Alliance

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Five areas of serious confrontation are in progress in the Middle East: Syrian, Iraqi, Saudi-Yemeni, Israeli-Palestinian, and Israeli-Lebanese, and all five are interconnected. The key confrontation of the five is the Syrian conflict. A victory in Syria by either side will decide the fate of the Middle East and the world. There can be no compromise, hence there is a danger of wider conflict.

If the American side wins, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon would be partitioned along ethnic and religious lines. The biggest winner would be Israel, and the biggest losers would be the Palestinians; they would probably be expelled from their homeland. Gas and oil pipelines would be built from Qatar and other Gulf States to Europe. Also, oil and gas from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen would be shipped to Europe via the same pipelines to lessen the European dependence on Russian gas. The dollar would be the official currency of trade. Turkey would also be a winner, but its reward would be minimal. The biggest losers of all would be the Arabs of the Middle East, they would be totally emasculated; other big losers would include the Russians and the Iranians.

If, on the other hand, the Syrian government wins, Syria would become a very powerful state and a great rebuilding would take place. The Syrian people will have enough strength to rebuild their country. With a Syrian victory, ISIS in Iraq would have no chance. Iraq would also rise up and become a powerful state. The Saudi, the Jordanian, and Gulf regimes would collapse. The Palestinians might even achieve their independence from Israel. The big winners would also be the Iranians and the Russians. The Europeans would start drifting towards Russia, one country at a time. And the biggest loser would be the British-American-Israeli Alliance. President Assad would become the national Arab hero who stood up to the British-America-Israeli Alliance and  ISIS.

How the wind will blow and how history will flow remains a big question. Only time will tell.

A coveted prize, the Litani River of Lebanon

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The Middle East has plenty of oil and gas, but water is in short supply. No country feels the lack of a natural water supply like Israel. Israel has only one river, which it has to share with Jordan,and that is the River Jordan which is being gradually depleted as it empties into the Dead Sea. Some natural water comes from the Syrian Golan Heights captured in the 1967 War, and desalination of sea water is another source but it is rather expensive. So, Israel is forced to import water, almost close to half of what it needs, from Turkey.

Israel is highly advanced  technically. It also has thriving agriculture with migrant workers from Africa. Both sectors use large amounts of water. The rate of water usage constantly increases, hence the constant need for more water. The adjacent state of Lebanon has fairly abundant water resources.

Israel is probably the fourth most powerful country in the world. It has nuclear weapons, a delivery system Jericho rocket range of 11000 kilometers, and a sea based missile system on diesel submarines supplied by Germany. It also has an anti-missile system, called the Iron Dome. It produces its own tanks, The Merkawa; its own jet fighter, the Kfir, plus other high tech weapons. It also gets most of its modern jet fighters from the US. The Israeli Defence Forces are highly trained and motivated. So Israel has everything except the water, and that is the problem. War over water is inevitable; the Litani River of Lebanon is in play.

Israel wants to play the victim, it wants to claim it had no choice. Its main opponent is Hezbollah of Lebanon. Hezbollah is well armed with modern weapons, including missiles which can reach any part of Israel. Hezbollah is presently helping President Assad of Syria. They are battle tested and will fight an asymmetrical war. The outcome could be very uncertain. Only time will tell.

Turkey is on a suicide mission

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Turkey’s leadership is in hysterics. By shooting down a Russian plane over Syria, it wanted to provoke a confrontation or even war between NATO and Russia. Turkey hoped to be a key player in the confrontation, but this attempt did not succeed. It has been an overall failure. What the Turks do not realize is that they are on the side of lies and deception. If Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Hesbollah of Lebanon were to be destroyed, the chief beneficiary would be the State of Israel. The above mentioned countries would be fragmented into small sheikdoms under Israeli control. In this arrangement, Turkey would only play a subordinate role. All the wealth of the Middle East would be in the in the hands of Western Corporations. All the land between the two rivers, the Nile and the Euphrates would be under Israeli control. The Israeli Flag symbolizes this concept which may occur in the not too distant future. The US definitely supports this policy. That is why the US, Israel, Turkey, Wahabi Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States support ISIS. The US wants to use Turkey as the spear against Syria and Iraq, and indirectly against Iran and Russia.

Would Turkey be an effective spear of the US in the Middle East?  That is a big unknown, because, Turkey has a huge internal problem called the Kurds. Kurds account for about  25 percent of Turkey’s population, and that is around twenty million people. All of South East Turkey is Kurdish. Kurds want greater autonomy, if not total independence. Turkey has a powerful military that has never been tested.  For Turkey, to so call  “liberate Aleppo” it would need a force of at least 25 to 30 thousand. It would have to face the Syrian Army which has rejuvenated itself. Nothing rejuvenates an army more quickly than a string of victories. In the last six weeks, the Syrian army has had a series of successes. Helping the Syrian Army would be Hesbollah of Lebanon, the Iraqis, the Iranians, and the Russian Aviation. The Saudis claim they would like to fight, and they may, they would enter Syria via Jordan. The Iraqi Shias would destroy them.  The US, Britain, and Israel would help the Turks. NATO would be neutral because it would lack unanimity.

The war will be bloody. But the morality and ethics of the Universe will be on the side of Syria. The Turkish incursion into Syria, if it takes place, would be a suicide mission. The morality and ethics of the Universe are on Syrian Government side because it’s defending the independence and dignity of its people. The crucial battle for Aleppo is taking place. Syria and its allies have an upper hand. US is calling for cease fire because its side is losing. ISIS and the others are on the run. The city of Aleppo is about to be liberated by Syrian troops. The US wants cessation of fire so its side gets re-enforcement and supplies from Turkey, or Turkey intervenes directly. It is not likely that Syria and its Allies will fall for this trick.

If Turkey intervenes it will face the Kurds of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. A Kurdish war of independence would arise in Turkey. Turkey could disintegrate. Other ethnic groups such as the Armenians would also rise up. Remember the Armenian Genocide by the Turks in the First World War One. Also the Balkan States of Serbia. Montenegro. Macedonia, Greece, and Bulgaria might gang up on Turkey and expel it from Europe. They would recapture Constantinople. Do not doubt this, they did it once before. Two members are in NATO, Greece, Bulgaria, and Montenegro is being offered membership. Turkey, of course, is also a member. NATO is being enlarged on the insistence of the US, but, at the same time it is disintegrating.  Also, all these Balkan States are Greek Orthodox as is Russia. Basilica, Saint Sophia, now a mosque is a symbol of Greek Orthodoxy. It would be Ironic if this happened but History is full of Irony. Irony is a cosmic manifestation of Truth and Justice. Turkey has a choice, be a peaceful good neighbor, be good to all its ethnic groups or face disintegration. Under present leadership, Turkey will most likely choose suicide. Only time will tell.

 

TURKISH BOOMERANG II

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Geopolitical changes of great significance are taking place in Eastern Europe, specifically in the Ukraine but also in the Middle East. The US wants at all cost to build the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf, and to the Indian Ocean, possibly to South East Asia, as far as the Philippines. But for the moment, let us study and analyse the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf: the US wants to expel Russia from the Ukraine and Syria, that’s very clear. It would also like to control Iran, but to do that, it would have to destroy it.

The US would like to reduce the relationship between the European Union and Russia to a bare minimum, but to do that it needs alternative sources of energy with which to supply Europe. The Middle East would be that source. The greatest oil and natural gas reserves in the world are located in the Middle East, and if the US and its friends were able to control those resources and their channels of delivery, it would be able to control the destinies of the entire world, East or West, North or South. So, these wars we have now in the Ukraine, Syria and Iraq are struggles for the control of the World…

Let us make some suppositions. Suppose the US and its allies win. They would end up controlling all that natural wealth, and be able to control energy supplies to Europe, China, and the Indian subcontinent. They would dictate the price denominated in DOLLARS. The dollar would become the permanent official currency of the world. In addition, if they got control of Iran, they would also control the production and export of gas from Turkmenistan. China and India would be subject to US blackmail, just as Japan was before the Second World War, with the so called ” Japanese Effect”: surrender or war. The Japanese, being proud people, chose war.They needed to get control of Indonesian oil which at the time was under Dutch control. To do that, they had to eliminate the US Pacific Fleet stationed at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii which at the time was a colonial possession of the US. By the DOLLAR becoming the permanent official currency of the world, the US would rule the world and its closest Allies would enjoy immense privilege. I will leave it to the reader or readers of this humble essay to figure out which country or countries would benefit the most…

But let us suppose the West loses. Suppose the Resistance Axis of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Hesballah of Lebanon win. Also suppose that in the struggle going on presently in the Middle East, the Saudis and the Gulf States collapse, and the Arab Nationalists who are vehemently Anti-West win. That Turkey slides into civil war, and the Kurds, who are about 20-25 %  of the Turkish population, rise up and seek their INDEPENDENCE. And, suppose that the Palestinians start their Third Intifada, sensing the victory of the Axis of Resistance… What would Israel and the US do? Would a Third World War begin???

The majority of the world agrees that ISIS or Daesh is evil, including the US, but it is secretly supporting it. It’s been bombing ISIS for more than a year with nothing to show for it! Why is Turkey, a NATO ally, openly supporting it?  If ISIS is evil, then countries fighting ISIS are on the side of Good.  Turkey, the US, the Saudis, and the others supporting ISIS are on the side of Evil. The Morals and Ethics of the Universe are on the side of Good. It is self-evident that the side fighting for Good against Evil will win. And by supporting evil, the US will not be able to build the Wall of Enmity. Also, sooner or later the dollar will not be used in world trade. So, the Turkish Boomerang will have disastrous consequences for the world, but especially for the US…

Let us be frank. The modus operandi of the US and its allies is lies and deceptions. The modus operandi of Russia and its allies is IRONY, the cosmic manifestation of truth and justice. Edgar Cayce, an American, once predicted that Russia will become the hope and salvation of the world. Only time will tell.

The Republic of Turkey is imploding

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The bombing which occurred in Ankara, the capital city of Turkey, several days ago and killed 129 or so people, and wounded around 200 people was provocative. Cui Bono ? That is the secret that will unravel in due time. Turkey is in NATO and a close ally of the US and Israel. Israel imports water from Turkey. Water is a source of life and well being. No country, especially a high tech country such as Israel can survive long without water. The waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River, are coveted by Israel. There will be a war between Israel and Lebanon in the near future but that future has not arrived yet. Turkey has an abundance of rivers, small and medium sized which flow into the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Exporting water is a profitable business.

Turkey has many internal problems which in turn have external implications. The main problem is the Kurds. The Kurdish population accounts for about twenty five percent of the total population of the country. The total population of the country is around 84 million. There are several million Kurds in  the adjacent countries of Iran, Iraq, and Syria. The number of Kurds in the entire region is anywhere from 30 to 35 million. They want an independent state and more rights. Syria and Iran treat the Kurds well, but Turkey not so much. The Kurdish region of Iraq is rich in oil, in the area of Mosul and Kirkuk. During the rule of Saddam Hussein, US and Israel supported the Kurdish rebellion of Iraq. They still do. Both Israel and US want to partition Iraq and Syria, so they would not be a threat to Israel. It would also enable Israel to expand in the region.

The US, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States {Kuwait, Quattar, Dubai, and Abu Dabi}, oppose President Assad of Syria. The US and its allies want a puppet in Syria, or even better, the partition of Syria.  Syria, Iran, Hasbullah of Lebanon, Russia, and the rest of the world, minus the European Union, support Assad and Syria. They support non interference in the policies of other states. The US claims that it has the right to change a regime it does not like, that they are governments that want to be independent. US foreign policy is based on arrogance, or superbia, the deadliest of all the seven mortal sins. Economic nemesis is awaiting the US down the road.

Turkey is big enough and strong enough to have an independent foreign policy a la India or Iran. It should give full rights to the Kurds and also recognize the Armenian genocide of 1916, when the Turks killed one million six hundred thousand Armenians. France recognizes the massacre, Israel and US do not. That tells one about who really cares about human rights. The terrorist attack of several days against peaceful  Kurdish demonstrations in Ankara demonstrates the seriousness of the internal problems of Turkey. Turkey should not help others to destabilize its neighbours, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq. Turkey should solve its own internal problems or it will violently implode. Only time will tell.

Saudi Arabia will implode, then explode

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Saudi Arabia was founded in 1932, by Ibn Saud, who joined four regions of Arabia into one and proclaimed himself a king. The four regions are Hejal, Najd, Eastern Arabia, aka Al Ahsa, and Southern Arabia, aka Asir. Southern Arabia borders Yemen where civil war is going on. Saudis support ex-president Hadhi, who was overthrown by  the Huthis, the biggest ethnic group in Yemen. Eastern Arabia borders the Persian Gulf,and across the Gulf faces Iran. Eastern Arabia is rich in hydrocarbons, oil and gas. A large desert country, it has to import most of the food for its 30 million inhabitants, a quarter of them foreign workers. The workers are mainly from the Middle East and South Asia. All the important posts of the country are in the hands of the descendants of the founder of the Kingdom, Ibn Saud. The number of descendants is anywhere between six and ten thousand individuals. Women have few if any rights. The Wahabi form of Islam is the official religion. Saudi Arabia, in essence is owned by Royal family members. It is   like the Walton family who owns Walmart.

A special relationship had been established between Saudi Arabia and the US in 1945 during the Second World War when President Roosevelt was returning from the Yalta Conference. The Saudi King met President Roosevelt on an American warship in the Mediterranian Sea. This special relationship was sealed. Saudi Arabia would become the special servant of the US. In return, the US would provide protection.

The US defaulted on its gold obligation or politely stated, President Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard in August of 1971. Up until then, the Central Banks of surplus dollar countries could exchange their dollar holdings for 35 dollars an ounce. The US was losing its’ gold. Over night the gold window was closed. President de Gaulle of France extracted as much gold from the US as he could in the 1960’s. He sent French warships to load up the gold that belonged to France and took it there. Other countries followed. Imagine how enamored US officials became of de Gaulle!  (Incidentally, de Gaulle was forced to resign in 1969. Massive demonstrations took place in Paris in May of that year. Could there be any connection to de Gaulle’s independent economic and foreign policy?)  De Gaulle told the Europeans not to accept Britain into the European Union. He warned that Britain would be the American “Trojan Horse”. Georges Pompidou, a banker, then became president of France. Britain then joins the Union. Any connection there????

The dollar started to drift, and inflation and gold were rising. President Nixon introduced price control, which was not too successful. The key country in saving the dollar was Saudi Arabia. How? Let me explain. The pre emptive war which Israel carried out against the Arabs was stunningly successful; the Arabs were devastated, they lost Gaza, the West Bank along with East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights of Syria, and the Sinai.  The Suez Canal was closed. Israel controlled the Sinai bank of the Suez Canal. Then, Nasser of Egypt died. The defeat was too much for him. Anwar Al Sadat, a general, took over. A deal had to be made. Sadat broke with the Soviet Union. Secretly, the Arabs were encouraged to win their lost territories back. The Yom Kippur War started in October of 1973. Israel was losing this war. Golda Meir, the prime minister pushed back by threatening to use the “Samson Option”: that is, using nuclear weapons to win the war. Nixon ordered a huge military supply to Israel. The front stabilized and negotiations began. The Arab World formed OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Saudi Arabia, being the biggest producer and exporter, played a key role. The Petro Dollar was born. From henceforth, all oil and oil products would be traded in dollars. Every importing country had to have dollars to import oil. As for the US, all it had to do was to print paper dollars.  In 1975 Americans were allowed to buy  gold for the first time since 1935. The Shah of Iran also played a major role in the formation of OPEC. But then the Iranian Revolution came about in 1979 and the Shah was overthrown. The US lost control over Iran. Hundreds of billions of dollars of Iranian assets were frozen in the US. They are still frozen to this day. The Islamic Republic of Iran became the implacable enemy of Saudi Arabia…

Saudi Arabia is afraid of revolution a la Iran, or the possibility of a secular revolution, though this is less likely. The Saudi Royal family hates both Iran and Syria and they share a common goal with Israel:  Israel wants Syria and Iran destroyed, which would give Israel a free hand in the Middle East. (They would get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River which flows in the  shape of a hockey stick through the Bekka Valley of Lebanon into the Mediterranean Sea.) Turkey would like parts of Syria bordering  on its south eastern area in order to control the Kurdish problem. Saudi Arabia faces the Houthi independence of Yemen. The war is not going well, at least presently. The Houthis will deliver a hanjar (Arabic word for a dagger) into the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia. Europe is looking at Russia and Syria in a different light because of the massive refugee problem. If the world economy collapses further, the price of oil may go down to twenty dollars. That would implode the Kingdom, which would be followed by an Iranian style revolution. Israel will face a massive Palestinian uprising. The tragedy of this world is that morally and ethically speaking, the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are on the wrong side of history. Only time will tell…

Large Middle East couldron is brewing around the corner…

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All the ducks are lining up in a row. Opposing forces are positioning themselves. Turkey and the US are making common cause against the President of Syria, Basar El-Assad. Incerlik air base in Turkey near the Syrian border is available to the US. Saudi Arabia and Israel are about to  join the Turkish-American operation in Syria. American drones are bombing Syrian government troops, a very new development. The escalation has started. Kurds, feeling betrayed by the US,will be fighting ferociously on Assads side. There are about 35 million Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon. Almost 25 million plus are in Eastern Turkey alone. One can say that eastern Turkey is the heart of Kurdistan. Actually, the Kurds are already fighting on the Syrian government side. Erdogan, president of Turkey, does not have a majority. His rule depends on a coalition and Turkey is unstable. The Saudi Arabian regime is also not very stable.There are attacks taking place in Saudi Arabia along the Yemeni border. The war in Yemen against the Houthis is not going too well. Two days ago or so, Saudi tanks rolled into Yemen to support the forces of the former president, Hadi. Israel also supports ISIS and wants to depose Assad and partition Syria as well as Iraq. But above all, it wants the waters of the Litani River in Lebanon. Hesbullah stands in its way and Hesbullah is fighting on Assad’s side. Israel is water poor; it imports nearly half its fresh water needs from Turkey.

The forces supporting Assad are Hesbullah of Lebanon and Hamas of Gaza. Iran is supporting Assad unconditionally. With the sanctions against Iran removed, its power has increased. If Turkey and the US send troops into Syria, Iran will send its volunteers. And of course,there are Russia and China who support Syria. Russia will not back off in Syria. China will also not back off. President Putin of Russia had a very intense meeting with the Turkish ambassador recently. It was reportedly two hours long. It is alleged that he told the Turkish ambassador that if Turkey invades Syria, Russia will make sure that Syria becomes the Turkish Stalingrad. This time, the Kurds will fight ISIS, the Turks, and the US to the death. The Turkish gas pipe-line will not be built. War is starting. Turkey, the US, Israel, the Saudis, and ISIS say Assad must go. Iran,China,Russia say: NO WAY.