Category Archives: lebanon

Short Observations II

The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

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Brief Observations

North Korea, I have said in my tweets, is a side show. The US is caught in Zugzwang. If it opts for war it will lose all its teeth and lower jaw. South Korea and Japan would be severely damaged or even destroyed. The US fighting North Korea is like a lion fighting the porcupine. If a porcupine quilt gets into the lions mouth, the lion will have a miserable fate. The US will huff and puff, but will back off. The nuclear option is off. However, tension could increase to war if the dollar position as reserve currency is threatened. China will start trading oil in yuan backed by gold. The US is upset and may sanction China. The chance of war with the Koreans will considerably increase?

The Ukraine situation is critical. The Ukraine is dying. Ukrainians are ready to revolt. Most of the Ukraine is Ethnically Russian. The Ukraine will rebel. The uprising will be massive. Donbass will help liberate the Ukraine. Poroshenko and company will be hunted like rats. The Ukraine will return to Russia. The US and EU will huff and puff but will be helpless.

Venezuela will not buckle. The opposition has no credibility. They are sold souls. External forces with the help of the opposition will try to overthrow Chavismo but they will fail. The barrios and armed forces will not allow Chavismo to fail. Venezuela is abandoning the dollar. It will set an example for the rest of Latin America.

Middle East Conundrum. A huge Islamic Alliance is forming: Hesbollah of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Yemen, and others. This alliance has thrown its weight behind Assad of Syria. External forces will try to assassinate Assad, but they most likely will not succeed. Panic is gripping Israel and Saudi Arabia. Assad is winning and that is anathema to Israel and the US. Big war is in store over water, strategic resources, and control of the area.

The biggest problems facing the world are the debt and the dollar. Debt is  becoming unbearable for most countries. Most debt is denominated in US dollars. This has given the US a power that has no parallel in world history. It is unique and flawed. This system is neo-slavery. By trapping the Third World in dollar debt, the US gets all the natural resources on a dollar plate for free. The enforcers of this arrangement are the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, backed by the Pentagon.

But the world is waking up and questioning this arrangement. Nations are moving away from subservience to economic independence, and this is the Achilles Heel of this economic arrangement. As more nations abandon the dollar, a huge economic crisis of epic proportions is unfolding.  The system is entering Kaput stage which could lead to war. We will see.

Syrian War II

The ISIS stage of the Syrian war is changing; the US approach is changing. In addition to supporting ISIS it has also thrown its support behind the Kurds of Syria and Iraq. The plan to partition Syria and Lebanon has not changed. The occult plan to remove Assad and Partition Syria should have been accomplished by the end of 2014 but plans did not pan out; even the poison gas trick did not work.

The plan to remove Assad and to implement “Partition Syria” is still the goal, except it now has a sense of urgency. Assad is still in power and the Syrian Army is getting stronger. Assad is resilient and tough like his father Hafez was. Hafez would not buckle under US pressure and recognize the State of Israel, as did Egypt under Anvar Al Sadat and Jordan in the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter. Lebanon would also not recognize Israel. By recognizing Israel, Anwar Al Sadat paid with his life. He was assassinated in 1979.

Israel thought it could partition Lebanon by itself, and get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River. Israel, like any other state, is not viable without an abundance of fresh water, and their attempt did not succeed. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 2006 failed. Hesbollah gave Israel a very bloody nose. Israel sustained heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. The US and Israel decided to dismember Syria by proxy and so the Islamic State, ISIS, was created. The Syrian war started in earnest in 2011, the year that Gaddafi of Libya was impaled and killed. Remember what Hillary said: “We came, we saw, and he died. Ha! Ha !” Sick mind. Putting a demented twist on Caesar’s immortal words: Vene, Vidi, Vici.

By 2013, they blamed Assad for a chemical attack; it didn’t work. By 2014, the slogan was: Assad must go. Assad did not go. Russian support of Syria increased as did Iranian and that of Hesbollah of Lebanon. With their help, Assad was able to liberate the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, as well as Aleppo. Israel would bomb the Syrian Army position in support of ISIS. Even during so called peace time, prior to 2011, Israeli jets would regularly fly over Damascus and the summer residence of the President of Syria; Syria would not respond.

The situation today is very critical. The US has realized that the only way to partition Syria is to establish an independent Kurdistan out of North East Syria and North East Iraq. The US has forces in Iraq not to help Iraq fight ISIS but to control it and to delay its victory over ISIS. Independent Iraq would help Assad and the US wants to prevent that; the Iraqis know that, Especially Muqtada al Sader and the Shias. The Syrian war is heating up. Turkey will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Severe estrangement is developing between US and Turkey and Turkey will probably leave NATO and abandon the US.

The US shot down a Syrian jet over Syria, an independent state and member of UN. In all honesty, this is a violation of International law. Syria is not an enemy of the US, nor has Syria asked for US help. Also, Syria is not a threat to US security. The actions of the US also violates the morals and ethics of the Universe. There is no justification for such actions except raw power. If the US persists in such actions, there will be a reaction. Remember the Third Law of Motion: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia will strengthen Syrian air defenses and US planes and drones will start falling from the sky a la Vietnam War. It is possible that Karma is based on the Third Law of Motion. Iran will also increase its help to Syria.

If the Kurds proclaim their independence with US help, Turkey will enter the fray on the side of Syria. If that happens, the US will lose. Would the US bomb Turkey? Possibly, but not likely. However, again, anything is possible.

Increased Iranian help, let us say, 200,000 Iranian Troops or Irano-Turkish combination of 300,000 troops would arouse US-Israeli-British ire and a huge Middle East War would begin. The war would engulf Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Yemen. The Saudi dynasty and Jordanian monarchy would collapse. The petro dollar would be finished. Oil prices would skyrocket. The EU and the US would enter into super depression. The rest of the world would  not be any better. However, countries connected by land from the Pacific- Indian Ocean to the Atlantic would start to coalesce. Afro-Eurasia would start coalescing. The US and the UK would be excluded.

The plan of the US is partition of Syria via Kurdistan which would become an ally of Israel, supplying it with precious fresh water from the Euphrates as well as oil. The second reason is the humiliating defeat of Russia and its’ eviction from the Middle East. The third reason is the destruction and conquest of Iran, the enemy of Israel and Saudis. By controlling Iran, the US would be able to control the Persian Gulf. It also would enable the US to control Central Asia. Just look the geography of the area.  Extra big war is in the works in the Middle East which may go nuclear.

The Significance of the Failed Turkish Coup

The coup of July 15-16, 2016 that  was not supposed to have failed, failed. The balance of power, the strategic changes  that are taking place now and that will take place in the future will have profound influence on the flow of world history.

Turkey is the key country of the Mediterranean Sea. Via the Straits of Bosporus and the Dardanelles, is the gateway to the Black Sea, Russia,  the Caucasus Mountains, and the Caspian Sea, as well as being the road that leads to Baghdad, the Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. The question must be asked why a country of 84,000,000 people, occupying an area of over 750,000 square kilometers, and with a very proud history is not only not independent but subservient to the Interests of the US. They helped the US in many wars from the Korean, 1950-53, to present-day involvement in Syria and Iraq, with no or minimal benefits to Turkey. With Russian intervention in Syria, the military situation there began to change in favor of Syria and its allies. The neocons in the US State Department panicked and wanted a confrontation with Russia. They wrote a letter to Secretary Kerry in early 2016 to that effect.

The shooting down of the Russian bomber over Syria on November 24, 2015, changed everything. The US had hoped for a military confrontation between Russia and Turkey, but President Putin never took the bait. Putin accused the Turks of ” stab in the back”, and ordered massive sanctions against them. Turkey suffered all the economic costs of the Turkish boomerang, the US none, but it was about to suffer the strategic damage of the Turkish boomerang…

President Erdogan started to doubt the wisdom of Turkish foreign policy concerning his neighbors. Europe would not let him join the Union, nor give visa free entry to Turkish citizens, and Russia had punished the Turks economically. The US, most likely, wanted for Turkey to participate in the invasion of Aleppo which would destroy the Syrian resistance. But Erdogan refused, dismissed his pro-US prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, and apologized to Putin. The US strategy in Syria, and, in Iraq was now in disarray. Something had to be done, a nice little coup d’etat with a minimal of noise, but it simply did not work out.

The consequences of this unsuccessful coup d’état will be enormous. The intimate subservient relationship that Turkey had with the US is now gone. No amount of nice talk and visits by US officials will restore this relationship. Erdogan has chosen independence for Turkey that the Turkish people support. If that means a friendly and strategic relationship with Russia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon, then so be it. If that means a cool and correct relationship with Israel and the US, then so be it.

The rapprochement with Russia is remarkable. The meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Russia will be significant. The possibility of a strategic alliance in the making between Iran, Turkey, and Russia is there.  This alliance could easily beat ISIS and free the Syria and Iraq of the scourge. Iraq and Syria would join the alliance of Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, and Russia. Another domino would fall, and Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US would be totally isolated. That would be a nightmare for Israel and the US. The European Union would start shifting East. After all, Napoleon said that “geography is destiny”. Let us observe what happens. Only time will tell.

Turkish Boomerang Update: Coup d’etat

As I predicted in my original post “Turkish Boomerang” 11/26/2015 regarding the situation in Turkey:

“Turkey will face some serious consequences in spite of the bravado of Erdogan and the economic losses will be severe. Russian tourists, food exports, Turkish firms working in Russia will all be lost or cut. The losses will be in the billions of dollars and will send Turkey into a severe recession, if not a full-blown depression. The world will shun Turkey for openly supporting ISIS. The Kurds of Turkey will rise up. There could be coup d’état in Turkey. Socio-economic upheaval cannot be excluded. Morally and ethically speaking, Turkey has been severely damaged. Russian efforts in Syria will intensify and this “stab in the back” will not be soon forgotten.”

The Turkish coup d’état was predicted (see above). The Turkish Army is a unique institution that was formed by Kemal Ataturk, the father of modern Turkey. That the Turkish Army acted implies that the Turkish situation was getting from bad to worse. The military leadership decided that it must act now to save the Turkish pro Western policy. If it fails, it will change the geo-political situation in the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and the Middle East. The rapprochement with Russia is inevitable, as is the rapprochement with Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. NATO will be shaken to its foundation. Coup d’etats will most likely occur in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The big losers will be ISIS, Israel, and the US. Only time will tell.

 

The British-American-Israeli Alliance

Five areas of serious confrontation are in progress in the Middle East: Syrian, Iraqi, Saudi-Yemeni, Israeli-Palestinian, and Israeli-Lebanese, and all five are interconnected. The key confrontation of the five is the Syrian conflict. A victory in Syria by either side will decide the fate of the Middle East and the world. There can be no compromise, hence there is a danger of wider conflict.

If the American side wins, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon would be partitioned along ethnic and religious lines. The biggest winner would be Israel, and the biggest losers would be the Palestinians; they would probably be expelled from their homeland. Gas and oil pipelines would be built from Qatar and other Gulf States to Europe. Also, oil and gas from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen would be shipped to Europe via the same pipelines to lessen the European dependence on Russian gas. The dollar would be the official currency of trade. Turkey would also be a winner, but its reward would be minimal. The biggest losers of all would be the Arabs of the Middle East, they would be totally emasculated; other big losers would include the Russians and the Iranians.

If, on the other hand, the Syrian government wins, Syria would become a very powerful state and a great rebuilding would take place. The Syrian people will have enough strength to rebuild their country. With a Syrian victory, ISIS in Iraq would have no chance. Iraq would also rise up and become a powerful state. The Saudi, the Jordanian, and Gulf regimes would collapse. The Palestinians might even achieve their independence from Israel. The big winners would also be the Iranians and the Russians. The Europeans would start drifting towards Russia, one country at a time. And the biggest loser would be the British-American-Israeli Alliance. President Assad would become the national Arab hero who stood up to the British-America-Israeli Alliance and  ISIS.

How the wind will blow and how history will flow remains a big question. Only time will tell.

A coveted prize, the Litani River of Lebanon

The Middle East has plenty of oil and gas, but water is in short supply. No country feels the lack of a natural water supply like Israel. Israel has only one river, which it has to share with Jordan,and that is the River Jordan which is being gradually depleted as it empties into the Dead Sea. Some natural water comes from the Syrian Golan Heights captured in the 1967 War, and desalination of sea water is another source but it is rather expensive. So, Israel is forced to import water, almost close to half of what it needs, from Turkey.

Israel is highly advanced  technically. It also has thriving agriculture with migrant workers from Africa. Both sectors use large amounts of water. The rate of water usage constantly increases, hence the constant need for more water. The adjacent state of Lebanon has fairly abundant water resources.

Israel is probably the fourth most powerful country in the world. It has nuclear weapons, a delivery system Jericho rocket range of 11000 kilometers, and a sea based missile system on diesel submarines supplied by Germany. It also has an anti-missile system, called the Iron Dome. It produces its own tanks, The Merkawa; its own jet fighter, the Kfir, plus other high tech weapons. It also gets most of its modern jet fighters from the US. The Israeli Defence Forces are highly trained and motivated. So Israel has everything except the water, and that is the problem. War over water is inevitable; the Litani River of Lebanon is in play.

Israel wants to play the victim, it wants to claim it had no choice. Its main opponent is Hezbollah of Lebanon. Hezbollah is well armed with modern weapons, including missiles which can reach any part of Israel. Hezbollah is presently helping President Assad of Syria. They are battle tested and will fight an asymmetrical war. The outcome could be very uncertain. Only time will tell.