Category Archives: lebanon

US/Israel vs Iran

Israel claims that Iran is the greatest threat to its security. Iran will never attack Israel, unless it is attacked by them. It has no need to. The reason Israel hates Iran is because Iran supports the Palestinian cause, Hezbollah of Lebanon, and Assad of Syria. Hezbollah defends Lebanon from Israeli attacks. Iran under the Shah was the best ally in the Middle East that Israel ever had. How things change! Now, Iran is the greatest enemy of Israel. Iran does not recognize Israel since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. If Israel, supported by the US, attacks Iran it would be a big deal. A Third World War could prove to be inevitable. So, let us analyze the situation.

Israel is a very vulnerable state, despite a superiority of armaments, including nuclear weapons which Israel denies. One thing Israel does not have is water. No water, no life. The Jordan River has become a creek which Israel has had to share with the Kingdom of Jordan. The Golan Heights, Syrian land occupied by Israel in the 1967 war, supplies Israel with drinking water. Desalination and re-purification of water is but a small part of Israel’s water supply; very expensive process. It does not produce drinking water, and is energy dependent. So, Israel is forced to import drinking water from Turkey.

Israel is a growing, sophisticated, modern economy. For all life on Earth, water is an absolute necessity. Countries that are in need of more water: Jordan, Sahel Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, China and some others. But none need it as critically as Israel. Under present circumstances no Arab country such as Lebanon and Syria would willingly supply water to Israel. Israel can only get water from Lebanon and Syria by force. Hence, war in Syria.

The war in Syria was started because of water. That cannot be said officially though. War must have a noble façade to cover its real reasons. These noble reasons for war: Assad is a dictator, butcher, killing his own people, gassing them and creating refugee problems for Europe. A slogan was created: “Assad, the butcher, must go”. The Spear of Change was to be ISIS or the Islamic State, created by the UK/US/Israel. It was assumed to be easy a la Libya and Iraq with the same results: chaos. It did not happen though or, at least, not yet.

Syria appears to be winning, but the war is not over. The second phase of war is being planned.  Macron is saying that the UK/US/FR should stay in Syria to rebuild it: Unbelievable! Assad just returned his medal, the Legion of Honour to France. This is classical colonial speak that has no place today. The war in Syria will continue and expand to include Iran.

The idea of staying in Syria is to prevent an Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance. Turkey and Pakistan will join this alliance. This is important because Pakistan is a significant nuclear power in alliance with China. This alliance would be a dominant force in the Middle East and would keep the peace. This cannot be allowed to happen though, because then Israel would be contained. UK/US/FR will not allow containment of Israel; expect more war.

Presently, Israel is facing a new Palestinian Intifada with no end in sight. It is very violent and Palestinians are being killed and wounded daily. The young girl, Ahed Tamimi is the symbol of Palestinian resistance. This Intifada will go on for a long time until the Palestinians get their basic rights. Intifada will exhaust Israel. Also, Israel has been pinpricking Syria for decades with no response. MSM does not report much. Sad!

The US/UK/FR attack of last week was to demonstrate their power. Their plan was to destroy the Syrian military infrastructure. It failed. Out of 103 missiles launched, 71 were shot down, Two missiles that failed were given to Russia by Syria. French president Macron suggested that UK/US/FR should stay in Syria. If the UK/US/FR stay in Syria, guerilla war will develop against them and their allies. The country they will blame will be Iran, as they blame Iran for everything that happens in the Middle East. Israel will clamor for an attack on Iran as it has done so far, but with greater intensity and results. The US may attack Iran. Israel would then attack Hezbollah to get the waters of Lebanon, and partition Syria. But the Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance will not buckle. The Islamic world, Russia, and China would aid the Alliance. Nuclear war could become inevitable.

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The Situation in the Middle East

World alliances are shifting because of the Middle East. Geographically speaking, the Middle East is the center of Afro-Eurasia, hence the center of the world. The Greater Middle East extends from the Balkans to Pakistan and from the Caucusus Mountains, Iran to  Libya, Egypt, Sudan, the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It is one of the great geostrategic regions of the world. Control the greater Middle East and you control the world through its geography and strategic resources such as oil and gas.

Western Powers, Britain and France have been controlling the Middle East since the end of the First World War. But since !945, it has been under the rather firm control of the USA. Also, Israel, since its establishment in 1948 has been most feared factor in the Arabic and Islamic Middle East.

Today, the situation in the Middle East is precarious. Several wars are going on simultaneously: the Palestinian struggle against Israeli occupation, the Iraqi war and occupation by the US since 2003, the Turkish- Kurdish conflict, the Syrian war since 2011, and the Yemeni war of the past several years. The Saudis are very unstable. The Yemeni War is the Hanjar in the Saudi heart. It is their own fault. Jordan is also very shaky, dominated by Israel and the Saudis. Egypt is on the sidelines for the moment.

Two Islamic, non Arabic countries, Iran and Turkey are destined to play very significant roles in the area and in the world. Also, Pakistan will play a significant part. These three countries will change the flow of history because they control the most geostrategic area of the world’s geography.

The US/UK/Saudi/Israeli plan is to destroy and partition Syria. The only way to do that is to remove Assad. US/Israel also want to destroy Hezbollah, in order for Israel to get the waters of Lebanon. Without this Lebanese water resource, Israel cannot survive. No nation is viable without an abundant natural water supply.

The opposing forces of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Turkey, and Russia want to preserve the unity and territorial integrity of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

The US will use the Kurds of Syria to establish a Syrian Kurdistan in N.E. Syria. Eventually, over a decade or two, the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey and Iran would join the Syrian Kurdistan which would create Greater Kurdistan in alliance with an enlarged Israel and the US. In the ensuing conflict Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey would be partitioned or even destroyed. Russia would be kicked out. All the wealth of the Middle East and its geostrategic real estate would be under US/ Israeli control; this is the ultimate plan of the Neocons.

The foundations of these grand strategic plans are very fragile. The US is threatening to bomb Syria, specifically Damascus and the presidential palace on the basis of false accusations that Syria is using chemical weapons in Ghouta. The US has used this excuse in the past to bomb the country. Russia said it will oppose any US action. If the US acts, confrontation between the US and Russia is inevitable. Naval forces of both countries are in a position of confrontation. The US Ambassador, Niki Haley, delivered a very aggressive speech at the UN Security Council a week ago. Turkey has announced plans to control the Syrian Kurdish area to the Iraqi border. Also, Iraq has agreed for Turkish troops to enter Iraqi Kurdistan. This will lead to an inevitable confrontation with the US. Also, Hezbollah is expecting and waiting for an Israeli attack on Lebanon and Syria.

In all seriousness, a big confrontation, possibly a third world war, is around the corner. We will see.

Turkey vs the US

In one of my previous posts, I stated that Turkey was one of the most geostrategic pivots in the world. That is true. This geostrategic pivot gives Turkey immense power and advantages vis a vis any power outside the region of the Balkans, Bosporus, Black Sea, and the Middle East.
In the year 2018, it is asserting its power to impose its will on the Kurdish enclave of North Syria to the Iraqi border; this means Turkish confrontation with the US.

Turkey is totally opposed to the US policy in Syria. The US wants to partition Syria, not because it is a threat to the US, which it is not, but because it would enable Israel to expand into both Lebanon and Syria. It would thereby obtain the waters of Lebanon.

Turkey considers the US presence in Syria and Iraq a threat to Turkish security and independence. Turkey has a large Kurdish population, up to 30,000,000 people in its South East Region. There are about 3,000,000 in Syria and Iraq respectively; approximately 3,000,000 in Iran. ( Actually, Kurds are scattered all over the Middle East. ) Kemal Ataturk was a Kurd. He defeated the British at the Battle of Gallipoli in 1915, in the 1st World War. Churchill was eager to conquer Constantinople for the British, and not to help the Russians as claimed by the British. Kemal Ataturk developed very close relations between Turkey and the new country of the USSR.

A large Kurdish State in the Fertile Crescent would mean the end of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. A Kurdish state allied to Israel would dominate the Middle East. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon want to prevent this scenario; most of the Islamic world is against such a scheme.

What now? Turkey means business. It is prepared to face the US in Syria, possibly in Iraq as well. Confrontation is inevitable. It depends on what scale, but it will be on big scale. Let us analyze.

The US will not leave Syria. It will leave only if forced. Turkey will not back off. All of Turkey is upset with the US. Both countries are members of NATO, but the US runs NATO. What the US says goes. That has been the internal relationship of the organization since its inception in 1949. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, a faithful US ally in the Korean War,1950-53. Since a failed coup d’état of July 15, 2016, the US/Turkish relationship has been very strained. Turkey has abandoned a policy of subservience to the US and chosen a policy of national interest and independence. National interests of Turkey are in direct conflict with US strategy. The policy of restraints on Turkey that the US is pursuing only irritates Turkey even more.

Before a complete rupture occurs, the US will try another coup d’état. If it succeeds, Turkey will go back to the NATO stable, and the US will again have a subservient Turkey and will be able to create Kurdistan in Syria. However, the coup may not succeed.

What is evident in this struggle is that Turkey is not afraid. Turkey is an advanced economy. It has powerful armed forces. Turkey may be in possession of nuclear weapons which gives it a nuclear back bone to face any opponent, including the US. The West was hoping to start a Russo-Turkish war after the Turks shot down a Russian jet in Syria on November 24, 2015; it did not succeed.

If Turkey goes all the way to conquer Syrian Kurdish region, it will inevitably come in conflict with the US special forces advising the Kurds. If the US sustains casualties, the US will respond and open conflict will occur. The Turks will not back off. Neither will the US. The conflict will enlarge. If no armistice is reached, both sides will pour troops into the conflict. NATO will be in a dilemma. Many NATO members would refuse to join the US vs. Turkey conflagration; NATO would break. The Islamic World would side with Turkey, and the Third World War could break out.

Short of a general nuclear war between the US and Russia, the US-Turkish War would severely damage the world’s economy, let alone cause massive environmental and structural damage to the world. The consequences would be unpredictable; we will see

Very Short Observations IV

The knowledge is intentionally withheld that the EU nations use dollars, not euros, in trade among themselves, as well as with other nations. It is amazing and true. So, the dollar is not only the petro-dollar, but the official currency of international trade. The most important world trade is in oil, and until now, it has been traded in dollars. Most international debt is also denominated in dollars. The dollar is used as the chief instrument of enforcing sanctions against nations who do not follow US policy. The dollar is the Thunder Bolt of Zeus that I mentioned in my earlier posts from 2015-16.

But the exceptionality of this currency which makes the US the exceptional nation may be coming to an end. China will be trading oil in the yuan, convertible to gold. Oil nations will be able to sell their oil for the yuan on the Shanghai Exchange, avoiding dollars. The yuan will be freely exchangeable for gold. Many oil nations will flock to the “Petro-Yuan”. This new development is of great geo-economic significance. Venezuela, for instance, would be able to sell its heavy crude from Lake Maracaibo for yuan. How the US will react to this challenge remains to be revealed. Will the US react aggressively to China?

A commodity that is necessary for all life on Earth is water. Mother Nature provides us water free of charge. Fortunate are those nations or people who have an abundance of it. Those nations who feel they are powerful enough are willing to go to war to get it. The countries of the Mediterranean basin that have an abundance of water are the new republics of the former Yugoslavia. Other countries are Turkey, Lebanon, and possibly Syria because of the two rivers that flow through North East Syria from Turkey: the Euphrates and the Tigris, which touches Syria as it leaves Turkey and enters Iraq.

Countries that are water poor: Libya and Israel. Libya was intentionally destroyed in 2011, killing and sodomizing its leader, Gaddafi, in order to plunder its resources, especially its oil. Gaddafi wanted a gold dinar for all of Africa. Israel, a water-poor yet highly advanced country, whose water needs are increasing daily, needs a source of free water. Presently, Israel imports about 50% of its fresh water from Turkey. If a confrontation develops between Israel and Turkey, in the future, Turkey could shut off its water exports to Israel. De-salination is an inadequate substitute; it is also very expensive.

And so Lebanon beckons. To get the waters of Lebanon, war is inevitable. Hezbollah, whether one likes it or not, is the guardian of Lebanese independence vis a vis Israel, so war is inevitable. Israel experienced Hezbollah in 2006 war. Hezbollah is no joke.

Saudi Arabia is not a country in the normal sense of the word, because it is owned by 50,000 to 100,000 royals who take most of its oil wealth for their own personal use. But the Saudis are now in trouble. They’re losing their war in Yemen. Oil revenues are down. A confrontation with Iran looms in the distance. Internal dissension exists. The situation in the Saudi Arabia is precarious. They have pushed themselves into a Zugzwang situation. An alliance with Israel and the dismissal of the Lebanese prime minister are possibly related. The official dogma: Hezbollah and Iran have become mortal enemies of Israel and the Saudis. Big war is inevitable for water, oil, and hegemony of the Middle East and the world. The US and NATO will side with the Saudis and Israel, unconditionally; most of the rest of the world will side with the Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Iran. Will this war turn nuclear? Possibly!

The Ukraine cannot be ignored; it is on the verge of collapse. The Ukraine’s internal and external policies are totally absurd. For example, certain nationalists want to break diplomatic relations with Russia. Also, they are buying expensive  anthracite hard coal from the US rather than cheaper and better quality coal from Russia or Donbass for its power plants; Ukrainians will be freezing this winter! Also they are trying to mpose the Ukrainian language on minorities such as Hungarians and Russians. Kiev will gamble war in order to save itself; it will not work.

Contrary to Main Stream Media propaganda, the US economy is not doing well. Both, debt and stocks are precariously high. The EU not much better; just ask the Greeks.

Truly, a very precarious time; very unique in history!

Very Short Observations III

US decertification of the Iran nuclear deal is very unwise. It has given big momentum to two movements in the world: the dollarization of the world, and, ironically, the isolation of the US, (instead of Russia). In 2014, President Obama imposed sanctions on Russia because of the Ukraine and Crimea returning to Russia of its own volition, and made the claim that Russia  would face isolation; never happened.

The US imposed severe sanctions on Iran. The EU followed. But despite these sanctions, Iran grew stronger, and is the dominant regional power, along with Turkey. Iran with Hasbollah of Lebanon and Russia is enabling Assad of Syria to win. ISIS is being defeated in Iraq and Syria; Israel is in a panic. Israel insists something must be done about Iran; will the US be induced to attack Iran?

The Ukraine is on the verge of rebellion. Misha Shalikashvilli, ex-president of Georgia and ex-governor of Odessa, is leading the charge; things remain to be seen. Ukrainians in general want to be with Russia, as well Byela Rus, Kazakhstan, and other republics of the former USSR. It is only matter of time before the armed forces join the people in the streets of Kiev and overthrow Poroshenko.

In the Middle East, a huge alliance is forming: Turkey, Iran. Iraq, Hesbollah of Lebanon, Yemen. Pakistan is drifting towards the Alliance. The Pakistani contribution to the Alliance will be nuclear. China is a strong ally of Pakistan. Turkey is definitely drifting away from the US, as is Pakistan.

It is possible that the US will lose the Middle East; only Israel will remain. The US is moving into Africa, especially former French Africa. It is rich in minerals such as uranium, gold, iron, copper, etc.; it is also rich in hydrocarbons. Losing four military personnel in Niger is no accident. The reality is that the US is involved in all of Africa. The idea is to prevent Africa from falling under the influence of China, ” the One Belt, One Road” system.

China is introducing  the “Petro-Yuan System” in the oil trade. This could be a very severe blow to dollar domination. Venezuela, Iran, Russia, others will participate in Petro-Yuan System. De-dollarization is accelerating. Many a US politician has said:” We will protect our way of life whatever it takes.” In other words, de-dollarization will not be allowed to succeed. Good reason to have a war.

Short Observations II

The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

Brief Observations

North Korea, I have said in my tweets, is a side show. The US is caught in Zugzwang. If it opts for war it will lose all its teeth and lower jaw. South Korea and Japan would be severely damaged or even destroyed. The US fighting North Korea is like a lion fighting the porcupine. If a porcupine quilt gets into the lions mouth, the lion will have a miserable fate. The US will huff and puff, but will back off. The nuclear option is off. However, tension could increase to war if the dollar position as reserve currency is threatened. China will start trading oil in yuan backed by gold. The US is upset and may sanction China. The chance of war with the Koreans will considerably increase?

The Ukraine situation is critical. The Ukraine is dying. Ukrainians are ready to revolt. Most of the Ukraine is Ethnically Russian. The Ukraine will rebel. The uprising will be massive. Donbass will help liberate the Ukraine. Poroshenko and company will be hunted like rats. The Ukraine will return to Russia. The US and EU will huff and puff but will be helpless.

Venezuela will not buckle. The opposition has no credibility. They are sold souls. External forces with the help of the opposition will try to overthrow Chavismo but they will fail. The barrios and armed forces will not allow Chavismo to fail. Venezuela is abandoning the dollar. It will set an example for the rest of Latin America.

Middle East Conundrum. A huge Islamic Alliance is forming: Hesbollah of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Yemen, and others. This alliance has thrown its weight behind Assad of Syria. External forces will try to assassinate Assad, but they most likely will not succeed. Panic is gripping Israel and Saudi Arabia. Assad is winning and that is anathema to Israel and the US. Big war is in store over water, strategic resources, and control of the area.

The biggest problems facing the world are the debt and the dollar. Debt is  becoming unbearable for most countries. Most debt is denominated in US dollars. This has given the US a power that has no parallel in world history. It is unique and flawed. This system is neo-slavery. By trapping the Third World in dollar debt, the US gets all the natural resources on a dollar plate for free. The enforcers of this arrangement are the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, backed by the Pentagon.

But the world is waking up and questioning this arrangement. Nations are moving away from subservience to economic independence, and this is the Achilles Heel of this economic arrangement. As more nations abandon the dollar, a huge economic crisis of epic proportions is unfolding.  The system is entering Kaput stage which could lead to war. We will see.