Category Archives: Great Britain

US/Israel vs Iran

Israel claims that Iran is the greatest threat to its security. Iran will never attack Israel, unless it is attacked by them. It has no need to. The reason Israel hates Iran is because Iran supports the Palestinian cause, Hezbollah of Lebanon, and Assad of Syria. Hezbollah defends Lebanon from Israeli attacks. Iran under the Shah was the best ally in the Middle East that Israel ever had. How things change! Now, Iran is the greatest enemy of Israel. Iran does not recognize Israel since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. If Israel, supported by the US, attacks Iran it would be a big deal. A Third World War could prove to be inevitable. So, let us analyze the situation.

Israel is a very vulnerable state, despite a superiority of armaments, including nuclear weapons which Israel denies. One thing Israel does not have is water. No water, no life. The Jordan River has become a creek which Israel has had to share with the Kingdom of Jordan. The Golan Heights, Syrian land occupied by Israel in the 1967 war, supplies Israel with drinking water. Desalination and re-purification of water is but a small part of Israel’s water supply; very expensive process. It does not produce drinking water, and is energy dependent. So, Israel is forced to import drinking water from Turkey.

Israel is a growing, sophisticated, modern economy. For all life on Earth, water is an absolute necessity. Countries that are in need of more water: Jordan, Sahel Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, China and some others. But none need it as critically as Israel. Under present circumstances no Arab country such as Lebanon and Syria would willingly supply water to Israel. Israel can only get water from Lebanon and Syria by force. Hence, war in Syria.

The war in Syria was started because of water. That cannot be said officially though. War must have a noble façade to cover its real reasons. These noble reasons for war: Assad is a dictator, butcher, killing his own people, gassing them and creating refugee problems for Europe. A slogan was created: “Assad, the butcher, must go”. The Spear of Change was to be ISIS or the Islamic State, created by the UK/US/Israel. It was assumed to be easy a la Libya and Iraq with the same results: chaos. It did not happen though or, at least, not yet.

Syria appears to be winning, but the war is not over. The second phase of war is being planned.  Macron is saying that the UK/US/FR should stay in Syria to rebuild it: Unbelievable! Assad just returned his medal, the Legion of Honour to France. This is classical colonial speak that has no place today. The war in Syria will continue and expand to include Iran.

The idea of staying in Syria is to prevent an Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance. Turkey and Pakistan will join this alliance. This is important because Pakistan is a significant nuclear power in alliance with China. This alliance would be a dominant force in the Middle East and would keep the peace. This cannot be allowed to happen though, because then Israel would be contained. UK/US/FR will not allow containment of Israel; expect more war.

Presently, Israel is facing a new Palestinian Intifada with no end in sight. It is very violent and Palestinians are being killed and wounded daily. The young girl, Ahed Tamimi is the symbol of Palestinian resistance. This Intifada will go on for a long time until the Palestinians get their basic rights. Intifada will exhaust Israel. Also, Israel has been pinpricking Syria for decades with no response. MSM does not report much. Sad!

The US/UK/FR attack of last week was to demonstrate their power. Their plan was to destroy the Syrian military infrastructure. It failed. Out of 103 missiles launched, 71 were shot down, Two missiles that failed were given to Russia by Syria. French president Macron suggested that UK/US/FR should stay in Syria. If the UK/US/FR stay in Syria, guerilla war will develop against them and their allies. The country they will blame will be Iran, as they blame Iran for everything that happens in the Middle East. Israel will clamor for an attack on Iran as it has done so far, but with greater intensity and results. The US may attack Iran. Israel would then attack Hezbollah to get the waters of Lebanon, and partition Syria. But the Iran-Syria-Lebanon alliance will not buckle. The Islamic world, Russia, and China would aid the Alliance. Nuclear war could become inevitable.

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The Situation in the Middle East

World alliances are shifting because of the Middle East. Geographically speaking, the Middle East is the center of Afro-Eurasia, hence the center of the world. The Greater Middle East extends from the Balkans to Pakistan and from the Caucusus Mountains, Iran to  Libya, Egypt, Sudan, the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It is one of the great geostrategic regions of the world. Control the greater Middle East and you control the world through its geography and strategic resources such as oil and gas.

Western Powers, Britain and France have been controlling the Middle East since the end of the First World War. But since !945, it has been under the rather firm control of the USA. Also, Israel, since its establishment in 1948 has been most feared factor in the Arabic and Islamic Middle East.

Today, the situation in the Middle East is precarious. Several wars are going on simultaneously: the Palestinian struggle against Israeli occupation, the Iraqi war and occupation by the US since 2003, the Turkish- Kurdish conflict, the Syrian war since 2011, and the Yemeni war of the past several years. The Saudis are very unstable. The Yemeni War is the Hanjar in the Saudi heart. It is their own fault. Jordan is also very shaky, dominated by Israel and the Saudis. Egypt is on the sidelines for the moment.

Two Islamic, non Arabic countries, Iran and Turkey are destined to play very significant roles in the area and in the world. Also, Pakistan will play a significant part. These three countries will change the flow of history because they control the most geostrategic area of the world’s geography.

The US/UK/Saudi/Israeli plan is to destroy and partition Syria. The only way to do that is to remove Assad. US/Israel also want to destroy Hezbollah, in order for Israel to get the waters of Lebanon. Without this Lebanese water resource, Israel cannot survive. No nation is viable without an abundant natural water supply.

The opposing forces of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Turkey, and Russia want to preserve the unity and territorial integrity of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

The US will use the Kurds of Syria to establish a Syrian Kurdistan in N.E. Syria. Eventually, over a decade or two, the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey and Iran would join the Syrian Kurdistan which would create Greater Kurdistan in alliance with an enlarged Israel and the US. In the ensuing conflict Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey would be partitioned or even destroyed. Russia would be kicked out. All the wealth of the Middle East and its geostrategic real estate would be under US/ Israeli control; this is the ultimate plan of the Neocons.

The foundations of these grand strategic plans are very fragile. The US is threatening to bomb Syria, specifically Damascus and the presidential palace on the basis of false accusations that Syria is using chemical weapons in Ghouta. The US has used this excuse in the past to bomb the country. Russia said it will oppose any US action. If the US acts, confrontation between the US and Russia is inevitable. Naval forces of both countries are in a position of confrontation. The US Ambassador, Niki Haley, delivered a very aggressive speech at the UN Security Council a week ago. Turkey has announced plans to control the Syrian Kurdish area to the Iraqi border. Also, Iraq has agreed for Turkish troops to enter Iraqi Kurdistan. This will lead to an inevitable confrontation with the US. Also, Hezbollah is expecting and waiting for an Israeli attack on Lebanon and Syria.

In all seriousness, a big confrontation, possibly a third world war, is around the corner. We will see.

Turkey vs the US

In one of my previous posts, I stated that Turkey was one of the most geostrategic pivots in the world. That is true. This geostrategic pivot gives Turkey immense power and advantages vis a vis any power outside the region of the Balkans, Bosporus, Black Sea, and the Middle East.
In the year 2018, it is asserting its power to impose its will on the Kurdish enclave of North Syria to the Iraqi border; this means Turkish confrontation with the US.

Turkey is totally opposed to the US policy in Syria. The US wants to partition Syria, not because it is a threat to the US, which it is not, but because it would enable Israel to expand into both Lebanon and Syria. It would thereby obtain the waters of Lebanon.

Turkey considers the US presence in Syria and Iraq a threat to Turkish security and independence. Turkey has a large Kurdish population, up to 30,000,000 people in its South East Region. There are about 3,000,000 in Syria and Iraq respectively; approximately 3,000,000 in Iran. ( Actually, Kurds are scattered all over the Middle East. ) Kemal Ataturk was a Kurd. He defeated the British at the Battle of Gallipoli in 1915, in the 1st World War. Churchill was eager to conquer Constantinople for the British, and not to help the Russians as claimed by the British. Kemal Ataturk developed very close relations between Turkey and the new country of the USSR.

A large Kurdish State in the Fertile Crescent would mean the end of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. A Kurdish state allied to Israel would dominate the Middle East. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon want to prevent this scenario; most of the Islamic world is against such a scheme.

What now? Turkey means business. It is prepared to face the US in Syria, possibly in Iraq as well. Confrontation is inevitable. It depends on what scale, but it will be on big scale. Let us analyze.

The US will not leave Syria. It will leave only if forced. Turkey will not back off. All of Turkey is upset with the US. Both countries are members of NATO, but the US runs NATO. What the US says goes. That has been the internal relationship of the organization since its inception in 1949. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, a faithful US ally in the Korean War,1950-53. Since a failed coup d’état of July 15, 2016, the US/Turkish relationship has been very strained. Turkey has abandoned a policy of subservience to the US and chosen a policy of national interest and independence. National interests of Turkey are in direct conflict with US strategy. The policy of restraints on Turkey that the US is pursuing only irritates Turkey even more.

Before a complete rupture occurs, the US will try another coup d’état. If it succeeds, Turkey will go back to the NATO stable, and the US will again have a subservient Turkey and will be able to create Kurdistan in Syria. However, the coup may not succeed.

What is evident in this struggle is that Turkey is not afraid. Turkey is an advanced economy. It has powerful armed forces. Turkey may be in possession of nuclear weapons which gives it a nuclear back bone to face any opponent, including the US. The West was hoping to start a Russo-Turkish war after the Turks shot down a Russian jet in Syria on November 24, 2015; it did not succeed.

If Turkey goes all the way to conquer Syrian Kurdish region, it will inevitably come in conflict with the US special forces advising the Kurds. If the US sustains casualties, the US will respond and open conflict will occur. The Turks will not back off. Neither will the US. The conflict will enlarge. If no armistice is reached, both sides will pour troops into the conflict. NATO will be in a dilemma. Many NATO members would refuse to join the US vs. Turkey conflagration; NATO would break. The Islamic World would side with Turkey, and the Third World War could break out.

Short of a general nuclear war between the US and Russia, the US-Turkish War would severely damage the world’s economy, let alone cause massive environmental and structural damage to the world. The consequences would be unpredictable; we will see

German Election Results?

Mutter Merkel did not do too well. As a senior persona and running for her 4th term , she and her CDU should have gotten at least 40% or more, so she could have formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party as in the past; a clear majority would have been best. Germans are restless because of migrants and the stern Russophobia of her government.

The German media tried some Russian interference to discredit the AfD, but it did not work. Alternativa fur Duetschland did well, especially in former East Germany. SPD did poorly. Martin Schultz, the leader, said that the party will go into opposition. Smart move. Merkel will have to court the Free Democratic Party (right), Der Linke (left), and the Greens (Environmentalists).

SDP and AfD will be the opposition. They will want change to German economic and foreign policy. Despite being a wealthy country, Germany has 8 million people living in poverty, out of a population of 84 million. The status quo will no longer do. Even coalition partners will want change.

The Germans want change, and change they will get. Change on the migration policy, on Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea. The opposition will demand that sanctions against Russia be cancelled. The opposition will demand removal of nuclear weapons from the country and a Modus Vivendi with Russia. Germany will move to neutrality. France, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece,and Slovenia will join. Later, all of Europe will go neutral a la Switzerland. Britain will stay faithful to the US.

This massive shift will affect the policy of Africa and Latin America. The role of the dollar and the gold will be reversed. It will be very interesting.

Subservience vs. Independence

In the next twenty five years, if there is no nuclear war, the intense struggle in the world will be between Subservience and Independence. By 1945, the US became the dominant power of the world. The dollar became the official currency of the world backed by gold and military power. The US obligated itself to protect European Empires as they disintegrated slowly. The British Empire became the British Commonwealth of Nations, the French Empire became the French Union, while other European Empires simply disintegrated. All the states of the European Empires became de Jure Independent States, but the de Facto were subservient to the West. The only country that could challenge the US was the USSR. The US proclaimed the USSR as the enemy and created military blocks such as NATO, CENTO for the Middle East and SEATO for South East Asia. With the collapse of USSR in 1991, the US became the Hegemon of the World. With Yeltsin in power there was the danger that Russia might disintegrate, but this did not happen.

With the advent of Putin, the Yeltsin policy of subservience to the US has been abandoned, and Russia has become stronger and is growing stronger despite sanctions. Iran, since the Islamic Revolution of I979, despite Western sanctions, has become much stronger and becomes a key player of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea of the Indian Ocean. It is not likely that Iran would have become influential in the region and the world if it had stayed subservient to US, and not sought independence.The question must be asked as to why  the US fought the War of Independence against Britain if subservience is such a pleasant state? It is very simple, the US would have never become what it is today if it had stayed a member of the British Empire. Why did Britain elect to leave the EU if it so pleasant to obey the rules and regulations of the European Commission? One of the reasons why Japan is still stagnating is  because Japan is still occupied and subservient to the interests of the US. Ask China why its growth has been phenomenal. The main reason is that China is independent and subservient to no one. The end result is everybody wants good trade relations with China, including the US. The Rest of the World is also observing this geostrategic situation…

Turkey, under Erdogan, was questioning its relation to the US. Turkey was helping the US by supporting ISIS and allowing the US to use Incerlik Air Base to bomb the Syrian Government positions in their fight against ISIS. At the same time, the US was scheming with the Kurds to set up a Kurdish State of Northern Syria and Northern Iraq. Also, the Turks shot down a Russian bomber over Syria to please the US. Apparently, Erdogan was not involved in the Russia plane shooting. His pro-American Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutuglu ordered the shoot down. All hell broke loose. Erdogan fired his Prime Minister Davutuglu, appointed Binali Yeldirim as Prime Minister, and apologized to Russia. Rapprochement with Russia occurred followed by an unsuccessful coup engineered by US help from the Incerlik Air Base. Turks are very unhappy and very defiant. The main opponent  of Erdogan is Islamist Gulen who lives in US. Extradition of Gulen to Turkey will be very, very slow, if it ever occurs. Hope that Turkey would revert to being a subservient ally is gone. Turkey has chosen an independent path.

The Philippines has also chosen the path to independence. After the Spanish- American War of 1898-99 engineered by President McKinley using the sinking of the Battleship Maine in Havana Harbour to declare war on Spain. The US won with not much difficulty. Subsequent occupation and suppression of Philippino resistance was somewhat more difficult. After several years of guerilla war, the Philippines were fully pacified. One would expect that after 116 yrs under American Rule, the Philippines would be highly developed and prosperous! But it is not.  The Phiippines are one of the poorest countries of South East Asia. They resent their subservience to the US, and elected Duterte as their President. He immediately opted for independence.

Turkey and the Philippines, major countries of Afro-Eurasia have set an example for other countries of Latin America and Afro-Eurasia to follow. Germany will follow the policy of Otto von Bismarck, the friendship with Russia. France will resurrect the policy of General Charles de Gaulle of Europe from the Atlantic to Vladivostok. Italy, Spain, and other countries will follow. Russia only has to sit and wait and remain strong.

In Asia and South East Asia, countries following the Philippine example are Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, etc. They all want to be independent.

In Africa there is a yearning for independence from Algeria in the North to the Republic of South Africa in the South. The yearning to be independent and free is unstoppable.

Latin America is the same. There is a yearning from the Rio Grande in the North to Tierra del Fuego in the South to be free and Independent. Simon Bolivar and Jose de San Martin have not been forgotten by the people of Latin America and the West Indies.

Another name for subservience is globalization. Globalization is the system that allows giant multinational corporations to exploit and rule the world according to the rules set up by the City of London and Wall Street. Globalization has been around since the British East India Company ruled India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Shri Lanka, Myanmar. Globalization sounds much nicer than subservience.

Also, subservient states are holding dollars, while independent ones are accumulating gold.

However difficult, the road to independence is unstoppable. That is the flow of history.

 

Will India Switch?

India is a huge country in South Asia. It is the second most populous country on Earth, with an area of 3,287,263 square kilometers and a population of over 1.3 billion people. Its economy is large and on purchasing power parity is approximately 8 billion dollars; it is bigger than either France or Britain, yet it is not a member of the Security  Council. Strange! It is also a major nuclear power. When one thinks of India, one is reminded of poverty. India and poverty is almost synonymous, but that is changing. India wants a UN Security seat which Russia fully supports, but the US and China are somewhat hesitant.

Since its independence from the British Colonial Rule, India pursued a policy of neutrality. Its first prime minister, Nehru, had been one of the co-founders of Non-Alignment,( the others being Tito of former Yugoslavia, Nkrumah of Ghana, Nasser of Egypt, and Sukarno of Indonesia.) Since its independence, India has had and maintains a close relationship with the former USSR and subsequently Russia. In 2016, its strategic relationship with Russia is solid, but the World situation is changing.

The US is trying to construct a Wall of Enmity, (see my previous posts), from Baltic States in the north east of Europe through Poland, Ukraine, the Balkan States, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, South Asia, the Straits of Malacca, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea. In this Wall of Enmity, India would be like the Key Stone; this Wall of Enmity would enclose Russia and China.

India is developing a close military strategic relationship with Israel , and possibly, France. It is also a large buyer of Israeli high tech weapons and advanced planes from France. Universities of India are feeding the high tech needs of the US and other Western countries. India is also member of BRICS and, possibly, wants to join the SCO, or Shanghai Co-operation Organization, whose founding members are China and Russia. (Other members are some of the ex-republics of the former USSR. Incidently, Iran and Pakistan want to join the SCO.)

Trade routes are being developed by China and Russia, the New Silk roads that would bring Asia, Africa, and Europe together. The BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Republic of South Africa), are working to bring trade and co-operation to the four regions of Afro-Eur-Asia and Latin America. This is anathema to the US.

The US will do its best to woo India to join its Wall of Enmity as a key stone. But how this part of history will flow, nobody knows. Only time will tell.

The British-American-Israeli Alliance

Five areas of serious confrontation are in progress in the Middle East: Syrian, Iraqi, Saudi-Yemeni, Israeli-Palestinian, and Israeli-Lebanese, and all five are interconnected. The key confrontation of the five is the Syrian conflict. A victory in Syria by either side will decide the fate of the Middle East and the world. There can be no compromise, hence there is a danger of wider conflict.

If the American side wins, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon would be partitioned along ethnic and religious lines. The biggest winner would be Israel, and the biggest losers would be the Palestinians; they would probably be expelled from their homeland. Gas and oil pipelines would be built from Qatar and other Gulf States to Europe. Also, oil and gas from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen would be shipped to Europe via the same pipelines to lessen the European dependence on Russian gas. The dollar would be the official currency of trade. Turkey would also be a winner, but its reward would be minimal. The biggest losers of all would be the Arabs of the Middle East, they would be totally emasculated; other big losers would include the Russians and the Iranians.

If, on the other hand, the Syrian government wins, Syria would become a very powerful state and a great rebuilding would take place. The Syrian people will have enough strength to rebuild their country. With a Syrian victory, ISIS in Iraq would have no chance. Iraq would also rise up and become a powerful state. The Saudi, the Jordanian, and Gulf regimes would collapse. The Palestinians might even achieve their independence from Israel. The big winners would also be the Iranians and the Russians. The Europeans would start drifting towards Russia, one country at a time. And the biggest loser would be the British-American-Israeli Alliance. President Assad would become the national Arab hero who stood up to the British-America-Israeli Alliance and  ISIS.

How the wind will blow and how history will flow remains a big question. Only time will tell.