Category Archives: kurds

Turkish election of June 24, 2018

On June 24, 2018, Turkey will hold elections which will change the political structure of the country. The presidential system will replace the parliamentary one. Executive power will be dominant. The individual behind the change is president Recep Erdogan.

Erdogan has been active in Turkish politics since 1994 when he was elected mayor of Istanbul  1994-98. Since about 2000 to 2014 he was prime minister. In 2014, he was elected president for five years. This June election of 2018 is a year early, because he wants to change the political structure of the country with a strong president as head of state. He is the leader of the Justice and Development Party. He is a conservative Islamic nationalist which the Turkish people love.

Turkey is geo-strategically a very significant country. It controls the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. It is part of Europe and the Middle East. A nation of more than 80,000,000 people, about 20% are Kurds. The country is fairly large, 302,500 square miles; it encompasses all of the Anatolian Peninsula.

Turkey fought in the Korean War,1950-53, on the US side. It has been faithful and subservient to US interests. It has tried to be a member of the EU without success. Now Erdogan no longer cares about the EU. Under Erdogan for over three decades, Turkey has developed into a modern industrial state. Turkey has had an insincere policy towards Syria, with no problems with neighbours, to outright support of ISIS; it had a strategic partnership with Israel. That changed because of the Palestinians which Turkey strongly supports. Turkey still supplies almost 50% or more of Israeli fresh water needs. Until 2016, Turkey had an antagonistic relationship with Russia. It shot a Russian jet over Syria claiming it was over Turkey. The Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Istanbul in 2015. Possibility of war existed, but Russia as usual played calmly.

The coup d’etat of 2016 changed everything; it failed badly. Turkey claims that the coup was organized by religious leader Gulen who lives in the US. Turkey accused the US of being involved, which the US denies. The US refuses to release Gulen to Turkish authorities. Russia helped Erdogan during the coup. A policy of friendship developed between Russia and Turkey. Erdogan apologized to Putin for shooting down the Russian jet and the assassination of the Russian ambassador; Russian tourists and trade returned to Turkey.

Iran, Russia, and Turkey are coordinating their policy on Syria.  The policy includes no partition of Syria and that Assad’s fate is to be decided by Syrian people. This is anathema to the US and Israel. The US is in direct confrontation with Turkey over Kurdish areas of Syria. Turkey will not allow a Kurdish enclave in N.E. Syria. The US wants an independent Kurdistan in Syria which would be allied with Israel. Turkey is vehemently opposed to any Kurdish state. Syria, Iran, and Iraq are also opposed to a possible Kurdish state. Erdogan is opposed to any idea of a Kurdish state.

June 24, 2018 elections are absolutely crucial for Turkey and the West. It seems Turkey is orienting itself to Russia and Eurasia. Turkey is buying the Russian S-400. The US threatens sanctions on Turkey and may not sell Turkey its F-35; Turkey doesn’t care. If Erdogan gets strong support in this election it will indicate that the Turkish people support his policies. Turkey will embrace Russia,  and NATO will become irrelevant as two major members clash.

The future relationship between Turkey and the US will be very interesting; it will affect the entire world. Watch the Turkish elections this coming Sunday, June 24, 2018.

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The Situation in the Middle East

World alliances are shifting because of the Middle East. Geographically speaking, the Middle East is the center of Afro-Eurasia, hence the center of the world. The Greater Middle East extends from the Balkans to Pakistan and from the Caucusus Mountains, Iran to  Libya, Egypt, Sudan, the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It is one of the great geostrategic regions of the world. Control the greater Middle East and you control the world through its geography and strategic resources such as oil and gas.

Western Powers, Britain and France have been controlling the Middle East since the end of the First World War. But since !945, it has been under the rather firm control of the USA. Also, Israel, since its establishment in 1948 has been most feared factor in the Arabic and Islamic Middle East.

Today, the situation in the Middle East is precarious. Several wars are going on simultaneously: the Palestinian struggle against Israeli occupation, the Iraqi war and occupation by the US since 2003, the Turkish- Kurdish conflict, the Syrian war since 2011, and the Yemeni war of the past several years. The Saudis are very unstable. The Yemeni War is the Hanjar in the Saudi heart. It is their own fault. Jordan is also very shaky, dominated by Israel and the Saudis. Egypt is on the sidelines for the moment.

Two Islamic, non Arabic countries, Iran and Turkey are destined to play very significant roles in the area and in the world. Also, Pakistan will play a significant part. These three countries will change the flow of history because they control the most geostrategic area of the world’s geography.

The US/UK/Saudi/Israeli plan is to destroy and partition Syria. The only way to do that is to remove Assad. US/Israel also want to destroy Hezbollah, in order for Israel to get the waters of Lebanon. Without this Lebanese water resource, Israel cannot survive. No nation is viable without an abundant natural water supply.

The opposing forces of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Turkey, and Russia want to preserve the unity and territorial integrity of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

The US will use the Kurds of Syria to establish a Syrian Kurdistan in N.E. Syria. Eventually, over a decade or two, the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey and Iran would join the Syrian Kurdistan which would create Greater Kurdistan in alliance with an enlarged Israel and the US. In the ensuing conflict Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey would be partitioned or even destroyed. Russia would be kicked out. All the wealth of the Middle East and its geostrategic real estate would be under US/ Israeli control; this is the ultimate plan of the Neocons.

The foundations of these grand strategic plans are very fragile. The US is threatening to bomb Syria, specifically Damascus and the presidential palace on the basis of false accusations that Syria is using chemical weapons in Ghouta. The US has used this excuse in the past to bomb the country. Russia said it will oppose any US action. If the US acts, confrontation between the US and Russia is inevitable. Naval forces of both countries are in a position of confrontation. The US Ambassador, Niki Haley, delivered a very aggressive speech at the UN Security Council a week ago. Turkey has announced plans to control the Syrian Kurdish area to the Iraqi border. Also, Iraq has agreed for Turkish troops to enter Iraqi Kurdistan. This will lead to an inevitable confrontation with the US. Also, Hezbollah is expecting and waiting for an Israeli attack on Lebanon and Syria.

In all seriousness, a big confrontation, possibly a third world war, is around the corner. We will see.

Turkey vs the US

In one of my previous posts, I stated that Turkey was one of the most geostrategic pivots in the world. That is true. This geostrategic pivot gives Turkey immense power and advantages vis a vis any power outside the region of the Balkans, Bosporus, Black Sea, and the Middle East.
In the year 2018, it is asserting its power to impose its will on the Kurdish enclave of North Syria to the Iraqi border; this means Turkish confrontation with the US.

Turkey is totally opposed to the US policy in Syria. The US wants to partition Syria, not because it is a threat to the US, which it is not, but because it would enable Israel to expand into both Lebanon and Syria. It would thereby obtain the waters of Lebanon.

Turkey considers the US presence in Syria and Iraq a threat to Turkish security and independence. Turkey has a large Kurdish population, up to 30,000,000 people in its South East Region. There are about 3,000,000 in Syria and Iraq respectively; approximately 3,000,000 in Iran. ( Actually, Kurds are scattered all over the Middle East. ) Kemal Ataturk was a Kurd. He defeated the British at the Battle of Gallipoli in 1915, in the 1st World War. Churchill was eager to conquer Constantinople for the British, and not to help the Russians as claimed by the British. Kemal Ataturk developed very close relations between Turkey and the new country of the USSR.

A large Kurdish State in the Fertile Crescent would mean the end of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. A Kurdish state allied to Israel would dominate the Middle East. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon want to prevent this scenario; most of the Islamic world is against such a scheme.

What now? Turkey means business. It is prepared to face the US in Syria, possibly in Iraq as well. Confrontation is inevitable. It depends on what scale, but it will be on big scale. Let us analyze.

The US will not leave Syria. It will leave only if forced. Turkey will not back off. All of Turkey is upset with the US. Both countries are members of NATO, but the US runs NATO. What the US says goes. That has been the internal relationship of the organization since its inception in 1949. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, a faithful US ally in the Korean War,1950-53. Since a failed coup d’état of July 15, 2016, the US/Turkish relationship has been very strained. Turkey has abandoned a policy of subservience to the US and chosen a policy of national interest and independence. National interests of Turkey are in direct conflict with US strategy. The policy of restraints on Turkey that the US is pursuing only irritates Turkey even more.

Before a complete rupture occurs, the US will try another coup d’état. If it succeeds, Turkey will go back to the NATO stable, and the US will again have a subservient Turkey and will be able to create Kurdistan in Syria. However, the coup may not succeed.

What is evident in this struggle is that Turkey is not afraid. Turkey is an advanced economy. It has powerful armed forces. Turkey may be in possession of nuclear weapons which gives it a nuclear back bone to face any opponent, including the US. The West was hoping to start a Russo-Turkish war after the Turks shot down a Russian jet in Syria on November 24, 2015; it did not succeed.

If Turkey goes all the way to conquer Syrian Kurdish region, it will inevitably come in conflict with the US special forces advising the Kurds. If the US sustains casualties, the US will respond and open conflict will occur. The Turks will not back off. Neither will the US. The conflict will enlarge. If no armistice is reached, both sides will pour troops into the conflict. NATO will be in a dilemma. Many NATO members would refuse to join the US vs. Turkey conflagration; NATO would break. The Islamic World would side with Turkey, and the Third World War could break out.

Short of a general nuclear war between the US and Russia, the US-Turkish War would severely damage the world’s economy, let alone cause massive environmental and structural damage to the world. The consequences would be unpredictable; we will see

Syrian War II

The ISIS stage of the Syrian war is changing; the US approach is changing. In addition to supporting ISIS it has also thrown its support behind the Kurds of Syria and Iraq. The plan to partition Syria and Lebanon has not changed. The occult plan to remove Assad and Partition Syria should have been accomplished by the end of 2014 but plans did not pan out; even the poison gas trick did not work.

The plan to remove Assad and to implement “Partition Syria” is still the goal, except it now has a sense of urgency. Assad is still in power and the Syrian Army is getting stronger. Assad is resilient and tough like his father Hafez was. Hafez would not buckle under US pressure and recognize the State of Israel, as did Egypt under Anvar Al Sadat and Jordan in the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter. Lebanon would also not recognize Israel. By recognizing Israel, Anwar Al Sadat paid with his life. He was assassinated in 1979.

Israel thought it could partition Lebanon by itself, and get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River. Israel, like any other state, is not viable without an abundance of fresh water, and their attempt did not succeed. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 2006 failed. Hesbollah gave Israel a very bloody nose. Israel sustained heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. The US and Israel decided to dismember Syria by proxy and so the Islamic State, ISIS, was created. The Syrian war started in earnest in 2011, the year that Gaddafi of Libya was impaled and killed. Remember what Hillary said: “We came, we saw, and he died. Ha! Ha !” Sick mind. Putting a demented twist on Caesar’s immortal words: Vene, Vidi, Vici.

By 2013, they blamed Assad for a chemical attack; it didn’t work. By 2014, the slogan was: Assad must go. Assad did not go. Russian support of Syria increased as did Iranian and that of Hesbollah of Lebanon. With their help, Assad was able to liberate the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, as well as Aleppo. Israel would bomb the Syrian Army position in support of ISIS. Even during so called peace time, prior to 2011, Israeli jets would regularly fly over Damascus and the summer residence of the President of Syria; Syria would not respond.

The situation today is very critical. The US has realized that the only way to partition Syria is to establish an independent Kurdistan out of North East Syria and North East Iraq. The US has forces in Iraq not to help Iraq fight ISIS but to control it and to delay its victory over ISIS. Independent Iraq would help Assad and the US wants to prevent that; the Iraqis know that, Especially Muqtada al Sader and the Shias. The Syrian war is heating up. Turkey will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Severe estrangement is developing between US and Turkey and Turkey will probably leave NATO and abandon the US.

The US shot down a Syrian jet over Syria, an independent state and member of UN. In all honesty, this is a violation of International law. Syria is not an enemy of the US, nor has Syria asked for US help. Also, Syria is not a threat to US security. The actions of the US also violates the morals and ethics of the Universe. There is no justification for such actions except raw power. If the US persists in such actions, there will be a reaction. Remember the Third Law of Motion: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia will strengthen Syrian air defenses and US planes and drones will start falling from the sky a la Vietnam War. It is possible that Karma is based on the Third Law of Motion. Iran will also increase its help to Syria.

If the Kurds proclaim their independence with US help, Turkey will enter the fray on the side of Syria. If that happens, the US will lose. Would the US bomb Turkey? Possibly, but not likely. However, again, anything is possible.

Increased Iranian help, let us say, 200,000 Iranian Troops or Irano-Turkish combination of 300,000 troops would arouse US-Israeli-British ire and a huge Middle East War would begin. The war would engulf Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Yemen. The Saudi dynasty and Jordanian monarchy would collapse. The petro dollar would be finished. Oil prices would skyrocket. The EU and the US would enter into super depression. The rest of the world would  not be any better. However, countries connected by land from the Pacific- Indian Ocean to the Atlantic would start to coalesce. Afro-Eurasia would start coalescing. The US and the UK would be excluded.

The plan of the US is partition of Syria via Kurdistan which would become an ally of Israel, supplying it with precious fresh water from the Euphrates as well as oil. The second reason is the humiliating defeat of Russia and its’ eviction from the Middle East. The third reason is the destruction and conquest of Iran, the enemy of Israel and Saudis. By controlling Iran, the US would be able to control the Persian Gulf. It also would enable the US to control Central Asia. Just look the geography of the area.  Extra big war is in the works in the Middle East which may go nuclear.

Syria and the Third World War

Assad presently has the upper hand in the Syrian War. It appears that ISIS maybe on the run. The US still has plans to topple Assad and partition Syria. The US is looking for options though, and has decided to play the Kurdish card in North East Syria along the Euphrates River. As expected, the Turks are very upset.

The US is in Zugzwang with respect to Syria. The US was hoping that so called ‘ Moderate Terrorists’ would topple Assad. It did not work. The US is still using ISIS covertly and Israel is supporting them occultly. That is not enough. Syria and Assad are getting stronger and stronger daily.

So, what to do? The US would like to entice NATO to overthrow Assad. A unified NATO attack via Turkey or Jordan or from both areas would  possibly be a winning move. An attack, of let us say, 200,000 NATO troops under US command would do the job. Possibly? The “official reason” for an invasion would be to fight ISIS; the real reason would be to partition Syria and destroy Assad.

Would Syria and its allies buckle under NATO pressure?  Not likely, but war would widen. Turkey would leave NATO and not participate against Syria. Israel would enter the fray. Palestinians would rise up. Egypt would militarize the Sinai. The Saudi dynasty, Jordanian monarchy, and Gulf states would be overthrown; the people of these monarchies would side with Syria.

The price of oil would skyrocket. The dollar would be rejected as a payment. Western economies would collapse. The US would be caught in Zugzwang. Would the US go nuclear, possibly? Is the Third World War inevitable?

 

How Will Syria Turn Out?

Peaceful resolution of Syria is not Likely. Larger war is inevitable. The US has just upped the ante. To show to the World that America is great again, Trump wants to win in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen, or where ever else conflicts start.

Of all the conflicts listed, Syria is the most critical, followed by the Ukraine. Bombing Syria for an unproven gas attack by Assad is a serious escalation. No investigation to prove who did it, just a claim without facts that Assad did it. A gas attack by ISIS or Al Nusra and then blaming Assad is more likely what happened. By this action the US seeks the removal of Assad and to partition Syria, which would immensely benefit Israel and possibly, the Kurds; Turkey would be a loser.

According to the Third Law of Motion: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Assad will be reinforced by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Iran might be willing to commit 50,000 troops or more and the Persians are tough fighters. To counter the Iranians, the US would be forced to commit an equivalent amount of troops. Would Congress allow this? Very likely. Why? Because Congress considers Iran an enemy of Israel, therefore, automatically an enemy of the US. Israel would attack Syria in order to fight the Iranians. Israel is already attacking Syria. Recently, Israel lost a plane over Syria. Hezbollah would join on a much larger scale than now in order to fight Israel.

Turkey is the wild card. If the US commits a large number of troops and allies itself with the Kurds, Turkey will expel the US from Incerlik and join Assad. The game would then be over. Will Turkey do that remains to be seen.

Another card that the US could play and will play is the Ukraine. The US would entice the Ukraine to attack Donbas, and Russia would be faced with two wars. For the Ukraine, Donbas is a hard nut to crack; it would lose all its teeth and lower jaw.

Iraq must also be considered as a very important factor. Iraq has a chance to be very powerful and an ally of Iran and Syria. The US is not eager for Iraq to take control of Mosul. If ISIS loses Mosul, the US would lose control of Iraq. Muqtada Al Sadar, the Iraqi Shia leader, will not allow any US presence in Iraq.  Iraq will also help Syria.

Most likely the Syrian war will expand. The US may try to go for the kill with Israeli and Kurdish help. Turkish help would be better but may not be available. One thing is certain: big war is coming to the Middle East, and the winners are unknown at this time.

The losers could be the occult participants in the Syrian war. They have greatest interest in destroying the Syrian state and Assad.

Large Middle East War is inevitable

There are different wars going on in the Middle East, all of them more or less going on at the same time. The purpose of the war in Syria is to partition it. The facade reason is that the “killer dictator” Assad must go. If Syria is partitioned into a Kurdish North East where the Euphrates flows, then water could be pumped to water-starved Israel by land and by sea. ISIS has been losing in Syria, although the final word has yet to be spoken. Whoever started ISIS is an enigma. Selling oil and financial transactions via SWIFT, (the Society for World-wide International Financial Transactions controlled by Federal Reserve Bank of New York), are not impeded by the US. Turkey is in Syria to prevent the creation of a Kurdish State, which would of course be a threat to its’ existence. Turkey initially supported ISIS because it felt it could occupy Syria’s Kurdish region but Erdogan switched after the coup d’état.

Turkey, despite being a NATO member, is being destabilized. South East Turkey, predominantly Kurdish, would be split to join the Kurdish areas of Syria, Iraq, and Iran into a greater Kurdistan which would then be friendly to Israel. Israel would then have an abundance of cheap water, oil, and gas. Turkey knows this. It is switching to Assad’s Syria, Iran, and Russia. A quiet alliance is forming between Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. The “One Belt, One Road” policy of China will go through Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, via the Balkans into Europe. The US is also quietly organizing an Arab anti-Iran alliance that is friendly to Israel,  composed of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia.

The partitioning of Iraq was in the cards of the West: the Sunni West around Ramadi, the Shia south from Baghdad to Basra, and the Kurdish north east around Kirkuk; possibly Mosul as well.

Lebanon would also be destroyed and Israel would get the water of the Litani River. So far, Israel has not been successful.

The Yemeni-Saudi war is not going too well. The Houthis are holding their own against the Saudis. It is quite likely that the Yemeni war will lead to a Saudi demise.

For all the problems in the Middle East, the US and Israel are blaming Iran as the major culprit. Because of Iranian missile testing, (which is not a violation of Nuclear Agreement that US has signed), the US and Israel are threatening Iran.

If the US and Israel attack Iran, Iran will respond by closing the Persian Gulf. the price of oil would go sky high. There would be a shortage of oil world wide. Iran would hit Israel with missiles. If Israel goes nuclear, Iran would try to destroy the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev desert. If Israel persisted with nuclear attack, Pakistan would lend Iran several nuclear bombs to hit Israel in return and a world wide chain reaction would follow resulting in a total collapse of many regions of the world.

Let us hope this does not happen. Only time will tell.