Category Archives: Afghanistan

German Election Results?

Mutter Merkel did not do too well. As a senior persona and running for her 4th term , she and her CDU should have gotten at least 40% or more, so she could have formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party as in the past; a clear majority would have been best. Germans are restless because of migrants and the stern Russophobia of her government.

The German media tried some Russian interference to discredit the AfD, but it did not work. Alternativa fur Duetschland did well, especially in former East Germany. SPD did poorly. Martin Schultz, the leader, said that the party will go into opposition. Smart move. Merkel will have to court the Free Democratic Party (right), Der Linke (left), and the Greens (Environmentalists).

SDP and AfD will be the opposition. They will want change to German economic and foreign policy. Despite being a wealthy country, Germany has 8 million people living in poverty, out of a population of 84 million. The status quo will no longer do. Even coalition partners will want change.

The Germans want change, and change they will get. Change on the migration policy, on Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea. The opposition will demand that sanctions against Russia be cancelled. The opposition will demand removal of nuclear weapons from the country and a Modus Vivendi with Russia. Germany will move to neutrality. France, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece,and Slovenia will join. Later, all of Europe will go neutral a la Switzerland. Britain will stay faithful to the US.

This massive shift will affect the policy of Africa and Latin America. The role of the dollar and the gold will be reversed. It will be very interesting.

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The significance of India-Pakistan animosity in the world of geo-politics

When India achieved independence from Britain in 1947, it split along the religious line: the Hindu India and Islamic Pakistan. The split was encouraged by the Anglo-Americans. The British did not like Mahatma  Gandhi or Jawarhal Nehru, and preferred Muhammad Ali Jinna, the founder of modern Pakistan.

When the split occurred, Hindu India, a much bigger country, ended up with Jammu Kashmir, a  beautiful Himalayan valley populated mainly by the Muslims, but ruled by a Hindu who sided with Hindu India. The fight over Kashmir persists to this day and will persist into the future.

Both Pakistan and India are multi-ethnic. In 1971, Pakistan split into West Pakistan, a larger region west of India, and East Pakistan, east of India, the so called Bengal. Its new name is Bangla Desh, land of Bengalis. Bitter war was fought in East Pakistan by West Pakistan to keep  East Pakistan in union with West Pakistan. Three million Bengalis lost their lives. Under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, the daughter of Nehru, India helped East Pakistan to become independent. The US sided with West Pakistan, and President Nixon sent the 7th Fleet from the western Pacific into the Bay of Bengal to intimidate the Indians. It did not work, as the Soviet Union sided with India. In December of 1961, Russia sided with India over the annexation of Portuguese Goa, while the US and Britain sided with Portugal. India considered Russia an “all weather friend”. How things change!

India is much bigger with a population of over 1.25 billion people and land area of around 1.2 million square miles. Pakistan, on the other hand, is much smaller with a population of over 200 million and a land area of around 300,000 square miles. Strategically speaking, Pakistan is holding more pivotal connections of Asia. Pakistan borders China on the North-East, India on the East, Afghanistan on North-West, Iran on the West, and the Indian Ocean on the South. India is considered a subcontinent of Asia jutting out to the Indian Ocean. Its land borders are Nepal, China in the North, Bangla Desh, Mayanmar to the East, Pakistan to the West.

Pakistan has a strategic relationship with China and a subservient role vis a vis the US. India has a rather cool relationship with China because of its’ border disputes in the Himalayas, a warming relationship with the US, and a geostrategic relationship with Russia.

As China enters the global stage, it is developing trade routes with South-West Asia and Europe via Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans and into Europe, and if Turkey achieves rapprochement with Russia, the process will accelerate. Also, Pakistan is a transit country enabling the US to invade Afghanistan, maintain military operations against the Taliban, and control the opium trade, a highly profitable enterprise that helps maintain the dollar as the Reserve Currency of the world. It is self-evident that Pakistan is extremely important, geo -strategically speaking, to US and China; it is also a nuclear power.

As mentioned, India is a large and important country of the Asian Subcontinent and the center of Hindu Civilization. It has had a very independent foreign policy, first as the co- founding member  of the Non-Aligned Movement, and now as the co-founding member of BRICS, { Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the Republic of South Africa.) It is a nuclear power, and the 6th or the 7th economic power of the world.

India is drifting West, buying high tech weapons from Israel, Rafale jet fighters from France. It is entering some sort of military basing arrangements with the US which has never happened before. US wants India to be a keystone in the Wall of Enmity that the US is building from the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Black Sea, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Philippines, Japan to South Korea. The Wall would hem in Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia. The gate keeper with the keys would be the US.

If India joins the Wall of Enmity though, it would lose its privileged geostrategic relationship with Russia, and its moral influence in the world. It would also lose its influence in BRICS, and would never be able to participate in the Silk Roads that China and other countries are building. India would become the odd man out on the Afro-Eurasian land mass. India, most likely, will not join the Wall of Enmity. However, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Pakistan, on the other hand, would like to break out from US subservience. It has sent feelers to Russia. Russia and Pakistan will hold some kind of military exercises very soon. India is upset, understandably so, but India should understand that if it has the right to choose its partners, then so do other countries.

Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing, as more and more of its’ countries are abandoning the strict subservience which the US dictates. They are using their own currencies in two way trade, thereby avoiding the dollar and trade is growing amongst them  as a result. India, Pakistan, Iran, and Venezuela want to join the Shanghai Co-operation Organization. Other countries are also trying to re-assert their independence: Turkey, Philippines, Japan, plus France, Germany, and Italy are in the game.

The animosity between India and Pakistan might impede the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia. An India connected to the West would not be interested in Afro-Eurasian coalescence and a geo-strategic relationship with Russia. Pakistan, on the other hand, because of its geo-strategic position would enhance the coalescence of Afro-Eurasia especially if it joins the Shanghai Co-operation Organization and BRICS, minus India, and possibly, Brazil. So history is implying that with or without India, Afro-Eurasia and Latin America are coalescing. Only time will tell.

 

Will Turkey leave NATO and join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Turkey has been a “good boy” ally of the West since 1952 when it joined NATO. It’s been in many wars supporting the US, from the Korean,1950-53 to Iraq One, 1990, Afghanistan 2001. Iraq Two in 2003, to present wars in Iraq and Syria, by supporting ISIS. ISIS nearly won, but now, is possibly losing.

The only benefit Turkey has ever achieved from being the “good boy” ally was supplying cheap labor to West German economy. Germans look kindly on the Turks for being their close ally in the First World War, and by being pro-German in the Second World War.

For all its devotion to the West, the rewards have been small. Wasn’t it the British ex-prime minister Cameron, who said that Turkey can become member of the European Union in next three thousand years? Turkey has no chance of joining the Union. Vague promises yes, but no membership. Russia was one of the most important trading partners of Turkey. Turkey gambled and lost an excellent neighborly relationship with Russia by shooting an unarmed bomber over Syrian territory. I am sure that, Turkey got an encouragement from the West to increase the enmity between the Turks and the Russians. The economic reprisals from Russia were massive and Turkey is still suffering from them. All this Turkish confrontation with Russia did not cost the US a penny, but the benefits were immense.

The Turks started to put two and two together and they did not like what they saw. President Erdogan started to think. First, he apologized for the plane, and Putin responded; rapprochement between Russia and Turkey began. It will be a slow process, but it is the beginning.  Also, Turkish rapprochement with Iran, Iraq, and Syria will begin. ISIS will be the big loser. Someone in the West did not like this, hence the coup d’état.

The coup d’état failed, and the Shanghai Co-operation Organization beckons to Turkey to join provided the conditions are met. The New Silk Road of Afro-Eurasia led by China also beckons Turkey, and Turkey might just bite. As a result, the West will face a debacle in the Middle East. The West will not like the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia. Another coup d’état will be attempted to prevent it. A great confrontation between Turkey and the West is in store. How the historical wind will blow, and how history will flow remains to be seen. Only time will tell.

Negative Energy Flow

The essence of the Universe is energy. This essence is constant, contracting, or expanding, but nobody knows for sure. The essence of our solar system is the sun, and without  the sun there would be no life on the Earth. They say that the energy of the sun is slowly dissipating, but is still good for about several billion years before it dies. But this is just a hypothesis. In fact nobody knows for sure.

We know that economic systems develop, grow, and then go into a collapsing phase and die, but the remnants of the previous systems become key components of the new system. For instance, the chief components of capitalism are usury and a modern version of slavery which are the chief remnants of two previous systems, slavery and feudalism.

Without the discovery of the New World by Christopher Columbus in 1492, capitalism would most likely have not developed. In my earliest posts, I stated that Christopher Columbus is the Father of Capitalism. The center of capitalism became Western Europe and North America, especially, the United States.

The United States had positive energy flow when the first Dutch and English colonists stepped into North America. The land was abundantly rich and it needed  workers to exploit it. Slavery was introduced and for 250 years, slavery was the main source of wealth extraction and accumulation  for the ruling elite of the new country. The tobacco and cotton plantations needed slaves. The trade in slaves  was very prosperous as well. Many Americans were also involved in opium trade with China, which was the monopoly of the British East India Company. It was the first giant global company, a forerunner of modern American and European corporations. Adam Smith who wrote the capitalist bible,’ The Wealth of Nations’ was an officer of the Company. His view of the ‘Invisible Hand’ that runs the market is more to the fact that the British East India Company methods of conquest and control stayed invisible as to how they got control of all of  India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Burma. They also wanted to keep opium trade with China and the Afghani Wars for control of opium invisible.

Americans wanted to take part in the opium trade with China, and that is one of the main reasons why the Americans wanted independence from Britain. Forget about: ‘ No taxation without representation’; it was just a façade like ‘ the weapons of mass destruction’ in Iraq. British rule of its North American colonies was rather gentle. British taxes were barely one percent on tea. One third of American colonists moved to the Canadian Provinces of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Ontario. They were known as United Empire Loyalists. Benjamin Franklin’s son left for England.

After the Declaration of American Independence of 1776, the Slave Trade of the North Atlantic and Opium Trade with China boomed, even though Europeans were losing interest in slave trade on moral and ethical grounds. Remember, ‘Amazing Grace’ was composed by a former slave trader in 1805, but the abuse of Africa still continues.

After the Civil War and the emancipation of the slaves, the US economy exploded. By 1900,  the US was the number one manufacturing nation in the world, by quantity and not by quality.  Germany was number one in quality and second in quantity. Attempts were made to create a private Central Bank of the United States, but failed until December 23, 1913. Alexander Hamilton, the first US Treasury Secretary wanted a private central bank. In a duel with Aaron Burr, the Vice-president, Hamilton lost his life. President Andrew Jackson, the 7th President, aborted the second attempt at creating a private central bank. Abraham Lincoln, probably the greatest President of the US, stopped the third attempt. He used ‘ Green Backs’ to finance the war rather than borrow from private banks. He paid with his life in 1865. James Garfield, the 20th President paid with his life for stopping the private central bank. Finally, Woodrow Wilson, the 28th President of the US acquiesced on Dec. 23, 1913.

The Central Bank of the US would be called the Federal Reserve Bank of the US. It would be composed of 12 regional or district banks. The first amongst equals would be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and it would act as a financial life line to Wall Street. The Federal Reserve was key in pushing the US into the First World War. Germany was winning the War. They sank the Lusitania on May 7th, claiming it was carrying weapons to Britain. True! Britain denied it. Lie! The US kept quiet until 1917. Britain panicked that Germany would win the war and Russia, an ally of Britain and France would conquer Constantinople. Britain then promised  Constantinople to Russia but had no intention of keeping it, hence Churchill’s disastrous Gallipoli Campaign to capture Constantinople.

The World Zionist Movement wanted to create a homeland for the Jews in what would be British occupied Palestine. And if the British agreed, it was agreed that the US would enter the war on the side of Britain and France. They would also eliminate Russia from the war and Constantinople would not fall to Russia. Also, Italy, an ally of Germany, would enter war on the side of Britain and France. The Balfour Declaration of Britain in 1916 allowed unrestricted Jewish settlements  of Palestine. As if by magic, the US enters the war under the cry, ‘Remember the Lusitania’, Trotsky leaves New York with 20 million in gold, Lenin leaves Switzerland in a sealed train for St. Petersburg to start a Bolshevik Revolution. Italy enters the war on the side of the Allies, and bank credits to Germany stop.

In 1917, the US enters the war, and the US tobacco industry wants to help ‘our boys’ fighting in the trenches by supplying them with free cigarettes, and tobacco addiction began. When women won the right to vote in 1920, they were supplied with free cigarettes to celebrate their independence. The boom of 1920 began, and the inventions of Nikola Tesla changed the US;  alternating current, fluorescent lighting, the invention of radio, wireless energy, etc. Marconi did not invent the radio, but sent the first radio signal from Liverpool, England to Gander, Newfoundland based on Tesla’s principles. The boom collapsed in 1929, but the US had positive energy flow. It had the most gold in the world, the strongest currency, positive balance of trade, and could interfere in Latin America with impunity. Hence, it had positive energy flow.

The Second World War enhanced this positive energy, and by 1944, it was able with the help of Great Britain to create the Bretton Woods Convention which crowned the dollar as the official currency of the world. The only opponent was the USSR which had won the war against Nazi Germany.

The US had positive energy flow until a gold run in 1968. The European countries wanted to exchange their trade surpluses for gold. By 1971, the US defaulted on its gold promise. By 1973, President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger created the petro dollar. The dollar debt finance of the US and the Third World became the Modus Operandi of the day. IMF and World Bank were loan sharking all over the world, including some Communist countries of Eastern Europe such as Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia.

Consumerism or lack thereof in the Soviet Union led to the dissolution of the Soviet State, even though the basic living standard of the Soviet citizen was higher than that of US citizens. The Soviet citizen enjoyed free education, free health care, public transportation, generous maternity leave and generous holidays. US citizens have none of this in 2016. And the irony is that the Soviet State dissolved and the US still stands. Barely. The people of the US are very angry, and they want change, either by evolution or revolution. The 95 percent of Americans which I call the Precariat Class have barely enough money to survive. The energy flow of the Precariat Class is extremely negative, and never in its entire history has the US faced such a situation.

No wonder Mr. Donald Trump is popular and the Ruling Elite and its overseer class is fearful. The US must restructure its economic system and enable the Precariat Class to have a chance. Change in the US is inevitable either by evolution or by revolution. If it is by revolution, fragmentation of the US is inevitable. Only time will tell.