Category Archives: Erdogan

Subservience vs. Independence

In the next twenty five years, if there is no nuclear war, the intense struggle in the world will be between Subservience and Independence. By 1945, the US became the dominant power of the world. The dollar became the official currency of the world backed by gold and military power. The US obligated itself to protect European Empires as they disintegrated slowly. The British Empire became the British Commonwealth of Nations, the French Empire became the French Union, while other European Empires simply disintegrated. All the states of the European Empires became de Jure Independent States, but the de Facto were subservient to the West. The only country that could challenge the US was the USSR. The US proclaimed the USSR as the enemy and created military blocks such as NATO, CENTO for the Middle East and SEATO for South East Asia. With the collapse of USSR in 1991, the US became the Hegemon of the World. With Yeltsin in power there was the danger that Russia might disintegrate, but this did not happen.

With the advent of Putin, the Yeltsin policy of subservience to the US has been abandoned, and Russia has become stronger and is growing stronger despite sanctions. Iran, since the Islamic Revolution of I979, despite Western sanctions, has become much stronger and becomes a key player of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea of the Indian Ocean. It is not likely that Iran would have become influential in the region and the world if it had stayed subservient to US, and not sought independence.The question must be asked as to why  the US fought the War of Independence against Britain if subservience is such a pleasant state? It is very simple, the US would have never become what it is today if it had stayed a member of the British Empire. Why did Britain elect to leave the EU if it so pleasant to obey the rules and regulations of the European Commission? One of the reasons why Japan is still stagnating is  because Japan is still occupied and subservient to the interests of the US. Ask China why its growth has been phenomenal. The main reason is that China is independent and subservient to no one. The end result is everybody wants good trade relations with China, including the US. The Rest of the World is also observing this geostrategic situation…

Turkey, under Erdogan, was questioning its relation to the US. Turkey was helping the US by supporting ISIS and allowing the US to use Incerlik Air Base to bomb the Syrian Government positions in their fight against ISIS. At the same time, the US was scheming with the Kurds to set up a Kurdish State of Northern Syria and Northern Iraq. Also, the Turks shot down a Russian bomber over Syria to please the US. Apparently, Erdogan was not involved in the Russia plane shooting. His pro-American Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutuglu ordered the shoot down. All hell broke loose. Erdogan fired his Prime Minister Davutuglu, appointed Binali Yeldirim as Prime Minister, and apologized to Russia. Rapprochement with Russia occurred followed by an unsuccessful coup engineered by US help from the Incerlik Air Base. Turks are very unhappy and very defiant. The main opponent  of Erdogan is Islamist Gulen who lives in US. Extradition of Gulen to Turkey will be very, very slow, if it ever occurs. Hope that Turkey would revert to being a subservient ally is gone. Turkey has chosen an independent path.

The Philippines has also chosen the path to independence. After the Spanish- American War of 1898-99 engineered by President McKinley using the sinking of the Battleship Maine in Havana Harbour to declare war on Spain. The US won with not much difficulty. Subsequent occupation and suppression of Philippino resistance was somewhat more difficult. After several years of guerilla war, the Philippines were fully pacified. One would expect that after 116 yrs under American Rule, the Philippines would be highly developed and prosperous! But it is not.  The Phiippines are one of the poorest countries of South East Asia. They resent their subservience to the US, and elected Duterte as their President. He immediately opted for independence.

Turkey and the Philippines, major countries of Afro-Eurasia have set an example for other countries of Latin America and Afro-Eurasia to follow. Germany will follow the policy of Otto von Bismarck, the friendship with Russia. France will resurrect the policy of General Charles de Gaulle of Europe from the Atlantic to Vladivostok. Italy, Spain, and other countries will follow. Russia only has to sit and wait and remain strong.

In Asia and South East Asia, countries following the Philippine example are Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, etc. They all want to be independent.

In Africa there is a yearning for independence from Algeria in the North to the Republic of South Africa in the South. The yearning to be independent and free is unstoppable.

Latin America is the same. There is a yearning from the Rio Grande in the North to Tierra del Fuego in the South to be free and Independent. Simon Bolivar and Jose de San Martin have not been forgotten by the people of Latin America and the West Indies.

Another name for subservience is globalization. Globalization is the system that allows giant multinational corporations to exploit and rule the world according to the rules set up by the City of London and Wall Street. Globalization has been around since the British East India Company ruled India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Shri Lanka, Myanmar. Globalization sounds much nicer than subservience.

Also, subservient states are holding dollars, while independent ones are accumulating gold.

However difficult, the road to independence is unstoppable. That is the flow of history.

 

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The Significance of the Failed Turkish Coup

The coup of July 15-16, 2016 that  was not supposed to have failed, failed. The balance of power, the strategic changes  that are taking place now and that will take place in the future will have profound influence on the flow of world history.

Turkey is the key country of the Mediterranean Sea. Via the Straits of Bosporus and the Dardanelles, is the gateway to the Black Sea, Russia,  the Caucasus Mountains, and the Caspian Sea, as well as being the road that leads to Baghdad, the Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. The question must be asked why a country of 84,000,000 people, occupying an area of over 750,000 square kilometers, and with a very proud history is not only not independent but subservient to the Interests of the US. They helped the US in many wars from the Korean, 1950-53, to present-day involvement in Syria and Iraq, with no or minimal benefits to Turkey. With Russian intervention in Syria, the military situation there began to change in favor of Syria and its allies. The neocons in the US State Department panicked and wanted a confrontation with Russia. They wrote a letter to Secretary Kerry in early 2016 to that effect.

The shooting down of the Russian bomber over Syria on November 24, 2015, changed everything. The US had hoped for a military confrontation between Russia and Turkey, but President Putin never took the bait. Putin accused the Turks of ” stab in the back”, and ordered massive sanctions against them. Turkey suffered all the economic costs of the Turkish boomerang, the US none, but it was about to suffer the strategic damage of the Turkish boomerang…

President Erdogan started to doubt the wisdom of Turkish foreign policy concerning his neighbors. Europe would not let him join the Union, nor give visa free entry to Turkish citizens, and Russia had punished the Turks economically. The US, most likely, wanted for Turkey to participate in the invasion of Aleppo which would destroy the Syrian resistance. But Erdogan refused, dismissed his pro-US prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, and apologized to Putin. The US strategy in Syria, and, in Iraq was now in disarray. Something had to be done, a nice little coup d’etat with a minimal of noise, but it simply did not work out.

The consequences of this unsuccessful coup d’état will be enormous. The intimate subservient relationship that Turkey had with the US is now gone. No amount of nice talk and visits by US officials will restore this relationship. Erdogan has chosen independence for Turkey that the Turkish people support. If that means a friendly and strategic relationship with Russia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon, then so be it. If that means a cool and correct relationship with Israel and the US, then so be it.

The rapprochement with Russia is remarkable. The meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Russia will be significant. The possibility of a strategic alliance in the making between Iran, Turkey, and Russia is there.  This alliance could easily beat ISIS and free the Syria and Iraq of the scourge. Iraq and Syria would join the alliance of Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, and Russia. Another domino would fall, and Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US would be totally isolated. That would be a nightmare for Israel and the US. The European Union would start shifting East. After all, Napoleon said that “geography is destiny”. Let us observe what happens. Only time will tell.

The Turkish Blow Back?

There is a lot of nonsense being written lately about the unsuccessful Turkish coup. The claim has been made in the Western press that Erdogan staged the event, or that it was carried out by junior rank officers and was doomed to failure. It is all lies, sheer fabricated lies. These lies convey a sense of disappointment on the part of the West that the coup had failed. There is absolutely no rejoicing in the West that the coup has failed, and that the democratically elected President Erdogan of Turkey was able to crush the revolt. Strange, very strange indeed!

The coup was very well organized, but the assumption on which it was based was false. The premise was that the people would support the coup, but the opposite happened, the people supported the President when he called the people to go out into the streets and oppose it. The only people who supported the coup were the pro-American elites in the military and in the government. But this was not enough, because the people were against it. (The previous four coups from 1960 to 1997 were successful because the majority of people did not oppose the revolt, or did not care. How things change!)

Turkey has been a faithful ally of the US and Israel. Turkey supplies nearly half of Israel’s supply of fresh water. No country is viable without fresh water. In Syria, it was supporting the US and Israeli attempt to overthrow President Assad and partition Syria into smaller regions which would be controlled by Israel. The Kurds would be allowed a state carved out of Syria and Northern Iraq which would then attract Turkish Kurds to form a larger Kurdistan, and which would be very destabilizing to the existence of the Turkish State.

The shooting down of the Russian unarmed bomber over Syria ordered by, at the time, Turkish prime minister Davutoglu in 2015 changed everything. The US regarded this event positively because it increased the animosity between Russia and Turkey, especially at a time when the US is building the Wall of Enmity between the West and Russia stretching from the Baltic States, Ukraine, Poland, The Balkans, Turkey, Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan to South Korea. It would be an unbreakable wall that would hem in Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea.

But things never work out exactly as planned. The Russian plane shoot down changed the Russia-Turkish relations from mutual reciprocity to mutual animosity. For downing its plane, Russia responded with a massive economic reaction, affecting tourism, agricultural products, construction, pipelines, and nuclear energy. Turkey was stunned. No aid was coming from NATO under Article Five. The Turks were on their own. The Syrian War intensified as Russia had intervened, ISIS and other groups which the US supported were on the run. Refugee crises were created which did not benefit the European Union.

The Turkish Kurds were getting restless and violence inside the Turkey was increasing. Wars in Syria and Iraq were not benefiting the Turks. Being member of NATO means only one thing being subservient to the interests of the US. Erdogan chose independence for Turkey and from now on, Turkey would have an independent foreign policy, if that means leaving NATO, it will leave NATO. He dismissed his pro-US prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu and replaced him by Binil Yildirim, an individual who has national Turkish interests at heart. Erdogan apologized to Russia for the downing of the plane and Putin reciprocated by lifting the Russian tourist ban and  ban on construction. The two leaders will meet in early August. What a change!

President Erdogan announced his desire for rapprochement with Russia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. It appears that ISIS and other terrorists are feeling the heat. The Americans panicked and a coup d’état was arranged that was doomed to fail, even though it was long in the planning.

There will be a black out on much of the news coming out of Turkey that will be perceived as negative to US interests. The Turkish purges that have been ordered by Erdogan for all levels of society that may be pro-western.  A great confrontation is developing between the US and Turkey. There is no turning back, unless, another pro-American coup succeeds, an event that is likely but will not succeed. Turkey will close Incerlik Air force base in south east Turkey, and, will leave NATO. The oxygen will be cut to ISIS and other similar groups. Assad will reclaim his country, as Iraq will reclaim its independence. There is certainty that there will be coups d’état in Saudi Arabia,  the Gulf States, and Jordan. All these countries, including Turkey, will join the Eurasian Union and the Shanghai Co-operation Organization. The currency of trade will be the yuan, gold, or the ruble.

This Turkish tectonic shift East will have a profound effect on world history. Only time will tell.

Will Turkey leave NATO and join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Turkey has been a “good boy” ally of the West since 1952 when it joined NATO. It’s been in many wars supporting the US, from the Korean,1950-53 to Iraq One, 1990, Afghanistan 2001. Iraq Two in 2003, to present wars in Iraq and Syria, by supporting ISIS. ISIS nearly won, but now, is possibly losing.

The only benefit Turkey has ever achieved from being the “good boy” ally was supplying cheap labor to West German economy. Germans look kindly on the Turks for being their close ally in the First World War, and by being pro-German in the Second World War.

For all its devotion to the West, the rewards have been small. Wasn’t it the British ex-prime minister Cameron, who said that Turkey can become member of the European Union in next three thousand years? Turkey has no chance of joining the Union. Vague promises yes, but no membership. Russia was one of the most important trading partners of Turkey. Turkey gambled and lost an excellent neighborly relationship with Russia by shooting an unarmed bomber over Syrian territory. I am sure that, Turkey got an encouragement from the West to increase the enmity between the Turks and the Russians. The economic reprisals from Russia were massive and Turkey is still suffering from them. All this Turkish confrontation with Russia did not cost the US a penny, but the benefits were immense.

The Turks started to put two and two together and they did not like what they saw. President Erdogan started to think. First, he apologized for the plane, and Putin responded; rapprochement between Russia and Turkey began. It will be a slow process, but it is the beginning.  Also, Turkish rapprochement with Iran, Iraq, and Syria will begin. ISIS will be the big loser. Someone in the West did not like this, hence the coup d’état.

The coup d’état failed, and the Shanghai Co-operation Organization beckons to Turkey to join provided the conditions are met. The New Silk Road of Afro-Eurasia led by China also beckons Turkey, and Turkey might just bite. As a result, the West will face a debacle in the Middle East. The West will not like the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia. Another coup d’état will be attempted to prevent it. A great confrontation between Turkey and the West is in store. How the historical wind will blow, and how history will flow remains to be seen. Only time will tell.

Ukraine is about to attack Novorussiya

Violence is increasing along the line of demarcation in Novorussiya*. The Kiev Regime is planning something, and it’s a matter of war or collapse, so it has chosen attack. Heavy equipment has been moved to the front, and a new mobilization of fresh troops has taken place but the results have not been impressive. The economy is collapsing and the regime of Yatsenyuk is on the verge of self destruction. Poroshenko wants to replace Yatsenyuk with American-born finance minister Jaresko. The Americans are getting impatient, and they want action…

The US is afraid that the European Union is going to lift sanctions against Russia this year. If this happens it will mean that Europe wants a rapprochement with Russia. They realize that a future without Russia is not possible. The war in the Ukraine would create animosity towards Russia which would be music to US ears.

The second reason is that this is the last chance for an offensive by the Kiev regime against Donbass and Lugansk. They are in the same dilemma that Germany was in before the Battle of Kursk in the Second World War.

The third reason is Syria. The US and its coalition is not doing well. Turkey and President Erdogan are going berserk; they are pounding the Kurds of South East Turkey. It seems that civil war is inevitable for them. So the US hopes that a war in the Ukraine might improve its position in Syria.

Spring is here! An ideal time for war. The Ukrainians have been re-equipped by the US. US military personnel are swarming all over the country. Numerous mercenaries have been in the East. Also, both sides have realized that the situation can only be resolved by war. The Minsk II Agreement was never honored by the Ukraine, but the failure has been blamed on Russia.

When the Ukrainian attack comes it will be massive, but the Novorussiya line will hold. Donbas will then counter attack in three directions: Kiev, the River Dnieper region; Mariupol, Odessa region; and Kharkov. People will join the Donbass Army, and the Ukrainian Army will mostly desert. The Kiev regime leaders and the oligarchs will try to escape to Canada, Israel, the US, and some other countries. Many will be caught and punished. The Ukraine will take its rightful place in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Only time will tell.

*Novorussiya is the region of the Eastern Ukraine which is in rebellion. It consists of the two provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk

TURKISH BOOMERANG

The Turkish downing of the Russian plane in Syria is a serious provocation with unknown long term consequences. It was planned ahead by two countries, Turkey and the US, because they both support the Islamic State or ISIS. They want control of Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon by hook or by crook…

The US is building the Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia via the Baltic States, and Poland, through the Ukraine, which I mentioned in one of my previous posts. It wants to extend that Wall of Enmity to the Middle East via Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. The five pivot states of this extended Wall of Enmity would be Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and possibly, Jordan would be partitioned or re-arranged to serve the interests of the US and some other key countries such as Israel. But Russia and Iran stand in the way, and Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are the battle grounds. The airspace of these three countries is constantly being violated by Israel and the US with not a peep about it in the Western press.

How have events been developing in the Middle East? The US has been bombing ISIS for more than a year, with absolutely no effect, because they were not really bombing ISIS but Syrian infrastructure. Western analysts and media were predicting the collapse of Syria and the removal of Assad. Russia, Iran, and Hesballah stepped in, and now, it seems ISIS and other groups are on the run. This panicked the US and Turkey. The US and Turkey could not send troops into Syria to help ISIS. What would the world say? Turkey was never friendly to Russia. It milked Russia via construction projects in Russia, Russian tourism, and cheap Russian gas. The Russians, being sincere, mistook this for friendship. It was far from it. The Turkish stream was a vague arrangement. The US did not want a Russian South stream, why would they want a Turkish stream? The US secretly agreed to help ISIS with which Turkey whole heartedly agreed, and which Turkey already was helping along with the Saudi Arabian and Gulf Monarchies. The US and Turkey planned this provocation, especially now with ISIS on the run. The Paris tragedy confused the situation but did not derail the planning. The plan was to shoot the Russian bomber, and accuse Russia of a violation of Turkish airspace. The Russian pilot would have supposedly been given warnings to steer clear. Imagine, ten warnings in five minutes. The Turks showed some real concern, and then shot the plane from behind. A “real stab in the back” as declared by President Putin, who knows what he is talking about. President Obama defended the Turkish action by saying that every country has a right to defend itself. Of course every country allied with the US does, but Syria not allied with the US so it has no right. This is how the world works these days.

Turkey went to NATO, crying that Russia violated its airspace, and despite repeated warnings, had no choice but to shoot the plane from behind. Turkey was hoping that NATO would use Article 5 (an attack on one is an attack on all) to confront Russia, but this did not happen. Why it did not happen is because the TRUTH sabotaged the plan. The whole world knew that Turkey stabbed Russia in the back. Vague support was given to Turkey but nothing else. President Hollande of France came to the White House on November 24 to organize an aggressive response to ISIS, but “Francois’s”   ideas were only politely considered. Today, November 26, the President of France is in Moscow conferring with Putin.

What will be the consequences of all this? President Obama has probably instructed Turkey to be tough. Initially, Russia wants a sincere  apology and compensation, but Erdogan will offer nothing. Russia should be concerned of what is going on in Ukraine, for instance the cutting off of electricity to the Crimea and the banning of all Russian flights. The Ukraine is also mobilizing troops in Donbas. A sudden Ukrainian attack cannot be excluded. Americans are training Ukrainian troops as we speak. Ukrainians are waiting for the US order to attack. Novorussia must be ready. The possibility of an ISIS attack in Russia should not be dismissed. The Black Sea passage blockade can also not be excluded,but I am sure Russia has alternative contingencies for everything.

Turkey will face some serious consequences in spite of the bravado of Erdogan and the economic losses will be severe. Russian tourists, food exports, Turkish firms working in Russia will all be lost or cut. The losses will be in the billions of dollars and will send Turkey into a severe recession, if not a full-blown depression. The world will shun Turkey for openly supporting ISIS. The Kurds of Turkey will rise up. There could be coup d’état in Turkey. Socio-economic upheaval cannot be excluded. Morally and ethically speaking, Turkey has been severely damaged. Russian efforts in Syria will intensify and this “stab in the back” will not be soon forgotten,

The US is entering a serious phase of economic crisis, and it’s just around the corner. Now, the whole world knows that secretly, the US is supporting ISIS. Whether the US succeeds in building the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean remains to be seen. Nemesis is waiting down the road. Many European states, large and small, will distance themselves from NATO, Turkey, and the US. Only time will tell.