Category Archives: Poland

Short Observations II

The predominant idea or movement of the 21st Century has been the movement away from subservience to independence.

The power that is trying to arrest this flow is the US, the status quo power. Dialectics is the enemy of status quo. Dialectic change is a historical process, and is a  threat to US hegemonic position. The US is enlarging NATO, yet NATO is falling apart. Turkey, one of the most significant nations of NATO is moving away from it and the US after the unsuccessful putsch against Erdogan in 2016. Turkey is pursuing an independent policy in the Middle East, which are contrary to the interests of Israel and the US.

The EU is also moving away from unconditional subservience to the US to independence, as recent German elections have demonstrated. Actually, Germany is moving away from remaining an occupied state to being independent. The poor showing of the Christian Democratic Union Party of Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party of Martin Schultz is the proof. Alternativa fur Deutschland party scored big. They came from nowhere. They are the third largest party in Germany and they want change. Big change that is an anathema to US interests. Alternative for Germany wants to follow the Bismarck policy of friendship with Russia. Will the EU follow Germany?

Middle East great changes! Alliances are shifting and changing. Overall, huge Islamic alliance is forming in the Middle East and South Asia. Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh, Malaysia, Indonesia. At the same time that this Alliance is forming, India is drifting West. The lynch pin of this alliance will be Iran and Turkey. Just look at the geographical position of Turkey and Iran. The Saudi King is visiting Moscow. Very interesting…

Israel is in panic mode. Assad is successfully fighting ISIS. Iran is a key player in this game. Iran has strong connections with Hesbollah of Lebanon, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have determined that an independent Kurdistan will fail;  Israel wants Kurdistan to succeed. Israel is instructing the US to destroy Iran, thereby assuring Israeli domination of the Middle East, and the fresh water resources which Israel critically needs. Whether the US will oblige remains to be seen.

There is an economic factor involved here as well. The Fed is pushing stocks higher. Some are predicting the DOW at 40,000 within a decade or sooner. Others are predicting total collapse. Foreigners are pouring their money into the US stock market, thereby supporting the dollar and the bond market. The Fed must support the stock market at all costs. If it fails, all hell will break loose. All three will collapse: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and there will be no more free lunch for the US.

The Ukrainian situation is ‘dormant’; a low intensity war. Kiev has no choice but to do that. It must be in the game even though it is losing. Ukraine is slowly dying. Population is decreasing. Wages are decreasing. People are very angry. What is keeping the Kiev afloat are Ukrainian remittances from Russia where over 4,000,000 Ukrainians work. Kiev is selling the Ukraine on the cheap to the West. It is only question of when, not if, the Ukrainians revolt.

Africa and Latin America are two continents where natural wealth is in relative abundance and people are waking up to protect it. Epiphany is rampant in Africa and Latin America. Western corporations are milking them as in colonial times. Globalism is just another name, more modern, for colonialism. Epiphany cannot be stopped. Venezuela will not buckle. In due time, more countries will join Venezuela. That is the flow of History.

North Korea is a thorn in US foreign policy in Asia. US interest is to maintain a Wall of Enmity extending from the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Persian Gulf, India, Straits of Malacca, Philippines, Japan, all the way to South Korea. The idea is to maintain this Wall of Enmity and push it to squeeze the hell out of China, Iran, and Russia.

China has said that if the US attacks North Korea it will automatically be on the North Korean side; a Korean War II would be inevitable and the potential catastrophe would be immense. North and South Korea would be destroyed. If China got involved, then Japan, China, and, possibly, the US would be severely damaged. A Korean crisis is, and will be, lots of thunder and very little, if any, rain.,

All scenarios discussed here could end up in a big war. In my opinion, the most likely scenario would be a US attack on Iran to make the Middle East safe for Israel. All kinds of excuses would be used to justify the attack. But wars never go according to plan. It seems that Iranian strategy is to receive and not give the first blow. After that, all hell would break loose. All of the Middle East, and possibly the world, would be in flames.

The only thing that will prevent wars that may occur anywhere is the collapse of the US stock market. Foreigners would pull their money out. At least, those who would be able. That would lead to the dollar and bond market collapsing. The US would have no choice but to turn inward. We will see.

 

 

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TURKISH BOOMERANG

The Turkish downing of the Russian plane in Syria is a serious provocation with unknown long term consequences. It was planned ahead by two countries, Turkey and the US, because they both support the Islamic State or ISIS. They want control of Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon by hook or by crook…

The US is building the Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia via the Baltic States, and Poland, through the Ukraine, which I mentioned in one of my previous posts. It wants to extend that Wall of Enmity to the Middle East via Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. The five pivot states of this extended Wall of Enmity would be Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and possibly, Jordan would be partitioned or re-arranged to serve the interests of the US and some other key countries such as Israel. But Russia and Iran stand in the way, and Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are the battle grounds. The airspace of these three countries is constantly being violated by Israel and the US with not a peep about it in the Western press.

How have events been developing in the Middle East? The US has been bombing ISIS for more than a year, with absolutely no effect, because they were not really bombing ISIS but Syrian infrastructure. Western analysts and media were predicting the collapse of Syria and the removal of Assad. Russia, Iran, and Hesballah stepped in, and now, it seems ISIS and other groups are on the run. This panicked the US and Turkey. The US and Turkey could not send troops into Syria to help ISIS. What would the world say? Turkey was never friendly to Russia. It milked Russia via construction projects in Russia, Russian tourism, and cheap Russian gas. The Russians, being sincere, mistook this for friendship. It was far from it. The Turkish stream was a vague arrangement. The US did not want a Russian South stream, why would they want a Turkish stream? The US secretly agreed to help ISIS with which Turkey whole heartedly agreed, and which Turkey already was helping along with the Saudi Arabian and Gulf Monarchies. The US and Turkey planned this provocation, especially now with ISIS on the run. The Paris tragedy confused the situation but did not derail the planning. The plan was to shoot the Russian bomber, and accuse Russia of a violation of Turkish airspace. The Russian pilot would have supposedly been given warnings to steer clear. Imagine, ten warnings in five minutes. The Turks showed some real concern, and then shot the plane from behind. A “real stab in the back” as declared by President Putin, who knows what he is talking about. President Obama defended the Turkish action by saying that every country has a right to defend itself. Of course every country allied with the US does, but Syria not allied with the US so it has no right. This is how the world works these days.

Turkey went to NATO, crying that Russia violated its airspace, and despite repeated warnings, had no choice but to shoot the plane from behind. Turkey was hoping that NATO would use Article 5 (an attack on one is an attack on all) to confront Russia, but this did not happen. Why it did not happen is because the TRUTH sabotaged the plan. The whole world knew that Turkey stabbed Russia in the back. Vague support was given to Turkey but nothing else. President Hollande of France came to the White House on November 24 to organize an aggressive response to ISIS, but “Francois’s”   ideas were only politely considered. Today, November 26, the President of France is in Moscow conferring with Putin.

What will be the consequences of all this? President Obama has probably instructed Turkey to be tough. Initially, Russia wants a sincere  apology and compensation, but Erdogan will offer nothing. Russia should be concerned of what is going on in Ukraine, for instance the cutting off of electricity to the Crimea and the banning of all Russian flights. The Ukraine is also mobilizing troops in Donbas. A sudden Ukrainian attack cannot be excluded. Americans are training Ukrainian troops as we speak. Ukrainians are waiting for the US order to attack. Novorussia must be ready. The possibility of an ISIS attack in Russia should not be dismissed. The Black Sea passage blockade can also not be excluded,but I am sure Russia has alternative contingencies for everything.

Turkey will face some serious consequences in spite of the bravado of Erdogan and the economic losses will be severe. Russian tourists, food exports, Turkish firms working in Russia will all be lost or cut. The losses will be in the billions of dollars and will send Turkey into a severe recession, if not a full-blown depression. The world will shun Turkey for openly supporting ISIS. The Kurds of Turkey will rise up. There could be coup d’état in Turkey. Socio-economic upheaval cannot be excluded. Morally and ethically speaking, Turkey has been severely damaged. Russian efforts in Syria will intensify and this “stab in the back” will not be soon forgotten,

The US is entering a serious phase of economic crisis, and it’s just around the corner. Now, the whole world knows that secretly, the US is supporting ISIS. Whether the US succeeds in building the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean remains to be seen. Nemesis is waiting down the road. Many European states, large and small, will distance themselves from NATO, Turkey, and the US. Only time will tell.

 

 

The North Atlantic Concept is Dying.

In many ways, the present world situation was created in the 1930’s. The Soviet Union was considered the main threat to Western control of the world. The Soviet Union supported anti-colonial struggles throughout the Colonial World, which was controlled by Western European States and the US. Hitler was appointed Chancellor of Germany by President von Hindenburg on January 31,1933. The Nazis were the largest party in Germany. Every leader in the West knew who Adolf Hitler was. German-American and British-German friendship societies were formed glorifying German-Nordic race and culture. France and other Latin Countries of Europe were not included, even though they were the main pillars of European and Western Civilization. One cannot imagine Europe without its Greco-Roman foundation. All the sophisticated aspects of the English language are Latino-French.

Overnight, Germany became the dominant European power under Hitler. France, on the other hand, was not as influential and demanding as Germany; it had lost élan, vital in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71. Germany became unified under the leadership of Otto von Bismarck, the Iron Chancellor. France was easily defeated, and the Emperor, Napoleon III, was captured at Sedan in northeast France. France with its Allies was victorious in the First World War but the war was highly exhausting and destructive. In the interim period between the world wars, France had weak governments of short duration. Britain was also weak, but enjoyed a special relationship with the US. France, despite being the longest running ally of the US, did not have this special relationship…

The USSR was isolated. Despite its efforts to form an Anti-Hitler coalition, Russia had been spurned. The only ally remaining to it was Mongolia. The USSR and Mongolia defeated the Empire of Japan in the Battle of Khalkhyn Gol, Mongolia in 1939. Europe was sliding towards war. The only western European leader who could have prevented the Second World War would have been General Charles de Gaulle. Had he been the president of France during the 1930’s, he would have formed a military alliance with Russia. Germany, under Hitler, then would have been contained. De Gaulle would also have been able to restore the French elan.

In the 1930’s Hitler was on the march. All his foreign demands had been met and it was Anschluss with Austria in the spring of 1938 and then the takeover of Czecho-Slovakia in the Autumn 1938, via Munich Agreement. The USSR wanted to defend the  Czech interests but was not invited to attend Munich. The secret British and American idea was to entice Hitler to attack Russia, and establish Lebensraum {Living space}, for Germany in the East, which had been Hitler’s goal from the very beginning. The wheels of war were set into motion secretly by the West. When the Soviet-German Non Aggression Pact was signed in August,1939, the West was indignant. Russia, how dare you ! Only the West is allowed such games. The invasion of Russia was then postponed, but not for long…

When Hitler attacked Poland on September 1, 1939, Britain and France declared war on Germany with reluctance. The “Phony War” followed on the Western Front. Britain and France were more interested in helping Finland in the Soviet-Finnish War than fighting Germany. After the French defeat and the British graceful exit from Dunkirk, Hitler was ready to attack Russia on June 22, 1941. The Western press gloated. Germany would win in about six to sixteen weeks. There would be tripartite control of the world, the British Empire, Germany, and the US. Germany would control the USSR land mass, Britain and the US would control the rest of the world. The US and Britain gave Germany about three years to defeat the USSR, but it never happened. By 1944, it was apparent that Germany would lose the war in the East,  and the Western Allies panicked. The Second Front was organized with the Normandy invasion to share in the division of Europe. The Cold War started long before the Second World War had ended. Operation Unthinkable was suggested by Churchill, as well as other plans by the Americans to destroy the USSR. And the Cold War never ended when USSR dissolved…

The Cold War continues today in multiple forms. NATO is expanding even though it is decaying. The Montenegro elite want to join NATO. The currency war against the ruble is raging. Oil prices were decreased in an attempt to hurt Russia. Sanctions and trade embargoes are being waged. Russia and ISIL have been declared enemies of the US. This is crazy. This US wants to destroy Russia to save its failing economic system which ultimately cannot be salvaged. The boomerang of sanctions and embargoes against Russia are only hurting the European Union. The European economy is just as bad as the US’s, if not worse. The onslaught of refugees is destroying the fabric of Europe. The Russian plane and Paris tragedies are changing the very policies of Europe. Europe will drift away from the North Atlantic and embrace Afro-Eurasia. Latin America is already embracing Afro-Eurasia. The US is Introducing counter measures such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Policy, which may or may not work.

The US is in a difficult position. The world is coalescing around Russia and China, and it cannot do much about it. The US  has only known one means of control: the policy of confrontation and intimidation it has used since its very inception. The Ruling Elite of the country will not change, although some members of the Elite perceive the danger. In a previous post, I said that US finance capitalism is supported by three pillars: paper (the dollar), the stock market, and the bond market, and that all three of these are based on debt. If one falters, all three will fall and the US economy will enter a black hole, and the European Union will drift away from Canada and the USA. Only time will tell.