Category Archives: syria

TURKISH BOOMERANG II

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Geopolitical changes of great significance are taking place in Eastern Europe, specifically in the Ukraine but also in the Middle East. The US wants at all cost to build the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf, and to the Indian Ocean, possibly to South East Asia, as far as the Philippines. But for the moment, let us study and analyse the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf: the US wants to expel Russia from the Ukraine and Syria, that’s very clear. It would also like to control Iran, but to do that, it would have to destroy it.

The US would like to reduce the relationship between the European Union and Russia to a bare minimum, but to do that it needs alternative sources of energy with which to supply Europe. The Middle East would be that source. The greatest oil and natural gas reserves in the world are located in the Middle East, and if the US and its friends were able to control those resources and their channels of delivery, it would be able to control the destinies of the entire world, East or West, North or South. So, these wars we have now in the Ukraine, Syria and Iraq are struggles for the control of the World…

Let us make some suppositions. Suppose the US and its allies win. They would end up controlling all that natural wealth, and be able to control energy supplies to Europe, China, and the Indian subcontinent. They would dictate the price denominated in DOLLARS. The dollar would become the permanent official currency of the world. In addition, if they got control of Iran, they would also control the production and export of gas from Turkmenistan. China and India would be subject to US blackmail, just as Japan was before the Second World War, with the so called ” Japanese Effect”: surrender or war. The Japanese, being proud people, chose war.They needed to get control of Indonesian oil which at the time was under Dutch control. To do that, they had to eliminate the US Pacific Fleet stationed at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii which at the time was a colonial possession of the US. By the DOLLAR becoming the permanent official currency of the world, the US would rule the world and its closest Allies would enjoy immense privilege. I will leave it to the reader or readers of this humble essay to figure out which country or countries would benefit the most…

But let us suppose the West loses. Suppose the Resistance Axis of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Hesballah of Lebanon win. Also suppose that in the struggle going on presently in the Middle East, the Saudis and the Gulf States collapse, and the Arab Nationalists who are vehemently Anti-West win. That Turkey slides into civil war, and the Kurds, who are about 20-25 %  of the Turkish population, rise up and seek their INDEPENDENCE. And, suppose that the Palestinians start their Third Intifada, sensing the victory of the Axis of Resistance… What would Israel and the US do? Would a Third World War begin???

The majority of the world agrees that ISIS or Daesh is evil, including the US, but it is secretly supporting it. It’s been bombing ISIS for more than a year with nothing to show for it! Why is Turkey, a NATO ally, openly supporting it?  If ISIS is evil, then countries fighting ISIS are on the side of Good.  Turkey, the US, the Saudis, and the others supporting ISIS are on the side of Evil. The Morals and Ethics of the Universe are on the side of Good. It is self-evident that the side fighting for Good against Evil will win. And by supporting evil, the US will not be able to build the Wall of Enmity. Also, sooner or later the dollar will not be used in world trade. So, the Turkish Boomerang will have disastrous consequences for the world, but especially for the US…

Let us be frank. The modus operandi of the US and its allies is lies and deceptions. The modus operandi of Russia and its allies is IRONY, the cosmic manifestation of truth and justice. Edgar Cayce, an American, once predicted that Russia will become the hope and salvation of the world. Only time will tell.

Cui Bono?

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The Russian plane tragedy which happened recently in Sinai, Egypt begs the question: who benefits? The Russian plane crash is a significant event in the Middle East and the world. It will polarize the world, and further divide the West from the Rest. Egypt definitely did not benefit. The plane crash could destroy the tourist industry of Egypt and worsen the already pretty bad economic condition of the country. The position of President El-Sisi could be on the line. Forces unfriendly to the President may organize a coup against him and destabilize the country. Cui Bono? Western strategic interests?

The Islamic State claims it bombed the plane. Quite likely. It boasts about having done it. This is to imply the great reach of the Islamic State. But who are its enablers? Saudi Arabia and Gulf States, but also the US, Britain, and Israel. The latter three are its’ real enablers. By using the Islamic State, the West wants to destroy Iraq, Syria, and Egypt, fragment them into smaller states which would then be subservient to Israel and the West. Created by the West, it is an instrument of power to destroy Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and more importantly, Iran. The Islamic State itself gains very little. It demonstrates to the world that it is very evil. This is a huge plus for President Assad, Russia, and its allies, Iran, Iraq, and Hesballah of Lebanon.

The irony of this all is that the biggest losers out of this will be these very enablers of ISIS. The refugee crises of the Greater Middle East and North Africa are destabilizing the European Union. The Kurdish Rebellion of Iraq and Syria is exciting the Kurds of Turkey, a NATO member and strong ally of Israel and the US. Turkey may end up in civil war. Israel is facing the third Palestinian Intifada, which is now in its early phase. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States face disaster in Yemen. The Middle East war is enlarging and is connecting what is going on in Afghanistan, the Ukraine, North Africa, and the Middle East, This is one war with many fronts. It also has socio-economic components. The socio-economic conditions of the European Union are deteriorating from the Baltics to Portugal,  from Ireland and Britain to Greece. The German economy is standing on one leg, and Mutter, Angela Merkel, is on the way out. Contrary to official propaganda, the US and Canada are not doing well at all. No interest rise this year or 2016. Foreigners will determine the interest rates, the value of the dollar and gold. The boomerang of Russian sanctions are in play.

A big battle is brewing for the ISIS center of El-Raqqua. Syrian Forces are attacking the city. The US has inserted 50 or so Special Forces within the Kurds. If the Kurds take the stronghold, the US will have a chance. If Assad wins, ISIS and the US will have no chance. Only time will tell.

 

The Middle East is the Pivot of World History.

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The Middle East is on the verge of great conflict.  The lines of conflict have been drawn up. The policy of the US since 1948 has been to secure the existence of Israel. This policy still exists today. The US is more involved in the Middle East than ever before. The policy of Israel and the US is to destroy or fragment any state that opposes the existence of Israel. Israel is a very powerful state, militarily and technologically. Some consider Israel the fourth most powerful state in the world, after the big three countries, China, Russia, and the US. The Achilles Heel of Israel is water. It has to import almost half of its water, mainly from Turkey,  a clearly pivotal state to the existence of Israel. The Armenian Genocide of 1916 in the Ottoman Empire caused  by the Turks is not recognized by Israel nor the US. It is understandable as to why.

Egypt and Jordan have been neutralized and diplomatic relations with Israel established. This relationship is precarious at best though. Libya and Iraq have been severely damaged but not yet destroyed.The last man standing has been Bashar al Assad of Syria. The US has decreed that Assad must go, but he is not going anywhere. A famous Prussian general, von Clausewitz, declared that war is a diplomacy by other means. Creation of the Islamic State by the West is diplomacy by other means. ISIS or the Islamic State has been declared by the US to be a terrorist state…but not really. The US bombs ISIS.. but not really. With all those shiny, new Toyota trucks and modern weapons ISIS is moving with the speed of light across Iraq and Syria. Volunteers are coming from all over the world. Volunteers are mainly Moslem Youth. One famous US senator was photographed with the Islamic State group. Even so, Iraq and Syria are still standing. Russia and Iran have stepped in. A sort of alliance has been formed, composed of Hasbullah  of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Russia. The opposing forces are ISIS, the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States. The massive refugee problem which has been created by US policies in the Middle East is destabilizing Europe. The economy of Europe, already weak, is being weakened further by the onslaught of refugees from the Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan. The vaunted economy of Germany is standing on one leg only. German exports are collapsing. Sanctions are hurting Europe more than they are hurting Russia. If Syria and Iraq win against ISIS, there will be a geo-strategic shift in the Middle East. The Palestinians are sensing this. A massive Palestinian uprising is in the making. China is developing new Silk Roads to Europe and Africa avoiding sea lanes controlled by the US Navy. Latin America is moving closer to Afro-Eurasia. Highways and high speed rail roads will be criss-crossing Afro-Eurasia. The US and its closest allies will face isolation…

Europe must re-consider its position vis a vis Russia. The Wall of Enmity that the US is’ building between Russia and Europe is not going to succeed. It is just a matter of time before the  people of the Ukraine rise up against the Kiev Junta and take their country back (with Russia where it belongs). The future of Europe is with Afro-Eurasia and Latin America. If the Palestinian Intifada turns massive and Israel feels threatened, it may use the nuclear option. Saudi Arabia also cannot be ignored, it is one of the key players in the Middle East. The Saudis are involved in mortal combat in Yemen with the Houthis and are about to lose big. If the Saudi dynasty is overthrown in the not too distant future and replaced by an anti-western leadership, you can kiss the petro dollar good bye. The dollar and the US economy would collapse. The US would face a series of crises it has never yet faced in its entire history. The Israeli economy, which is dependent on the US, would most certainly collapse. Perhaps, instinctively, the Palestinians are sensing that. I repeat again, a massive Intifada is in the works. No question, the Middle East is the pivot of world history.

The Republic of Turkey is imploding

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The bombing which occurred in Ankara, the capital city of Turkey, several days ago and killed 129 or so people, and wounded around 200 people was provocative. Cui Bono ? That is the secret that will unravel in due time. Turkey is in NATO and a close ally of the US and Israel. Israel imports water from Turkey. Water is a source of life and well being. No country, especially a high tech country such as Israel can survive long without water. The waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River, are coveted by Israel. There will be a war between Israel and Lebanon in the near future but that future has not arrived yet. Turkey has an abundance of rivers, small and medium sized which flow into the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Exporting water is a profitable business.

Turkey has many internal problems which in turn have external implications. The main problem is the Kurds. The Kurdish population accounts for about twenty five percent of the total population of the country. The total population of the country is around 84 million. There are several million Kurds in  the adjacent countries of Iran, Iraq, and Syria. The number of Kurds in the entire region is anywhere from 30 to 35 million. They want an independent state and more rights. Syria and Iran treat the Kurds well, but Turkey not so much. The Kurdish region of Iraq is rich in oil, in the area of Mosul and Kirkuk. During the rule of Saddam Hussein, US and Israel supported the Kurdish rebellion of Iraq. They still do. Both Israel and US want to partition Iraq and Syria, so they would not be a threat to Israel. It would also enable Israel to expand in the region.

The US, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States {Kuwait, Quattar, Dubai, and Abu Dabi}, oppose President Assad of Syria. The US and its allies want a puppet in Syria, or even better, the partition of Syria.  Syria, Iran, Hasbullah of Lebanon, Russia, and the rest of the world, minus the European Union, support Assad and Syria. They support non interference in the policies of other states. The US claims that it has the right to change a regime it does not like, that they are governments that want to be independent. US foreign policy is based on arrogance, or superbia, the deadliest of all the seven mortal sins. Economic nemesis is awaiting the US down the road.

Turkey is big enough and strong enough to have an independent foreign policy a la India or Iran. It should give full rights to the Kurds and also recognize the Armenian genocide of 1916, when the Turks killed one million six hundred thousand Armenians. France recognizes the massacre, Israel and US do not. That tells one about who really cares about human rights. The terrorist attack of several days against peaceful  Kurdish demonstrations in Ankara demonstrates the seriousness of the internal problems of Turkey. Turkey should not help others to destabilize its neighbours, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq. Turkey should solve its own internal problems or it will violently implode. Only time will tell.

Saudi Arabia will implode, then explode

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Saudi Arabia was founded in 1932, by Ibn Saud, who joined four regions of Arabia into one and proclaimed himself a king. The four regions are Hejal, Najd, Eastern Arabia, aka Al Ahsa, and Southern Arabia, aka Asir. Southern Arabia borders Yemen where civil war is going on. Saudis support ex-president Hadhi, who was overthrown by  the Huthis, the biggest ethnic group in Yemen. Eastern Arabia borders the Persian Gulf,and across the Gulf faces Iran. Eastern Arabia is rich in hydrocarbons, oil and gas. A large desert country, it has to import most of the food for its 30 million inhabitants, a quarter of them foreign workers. The workers are mainly from the Middle East and South Asia. All the important posts of the country are in the hands of the descendants of the founder of the Kingdom, Ibn Saud. The number of descendants is anywhere between six and ten thousand individuals. Women have few if any rights. The Wahabi form of Islam is the official religion. Saudi Arabia, in essence is owned by Royal family members. It is   like the Walton family who owns Walmart.

A special relationship had been established between Saudi Arabia and the US in 1945 during the Second World War when President Roosevelt was returning from the Yalta Conference. The Saudi King met President Roosevelt on an American warship in the Mediterranian Sea. This special relationship was sealed. Saudi Arabia would become the special servant of the US. In return, the US would provide protection.

The US defaulted on its gold obligation or politely stated, President Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard in August of 1971. Up until then, the Central Banks of surplus dollar countries could exchange their dollar holdings for 35 dollars an ounce. The US was losing its’ gold. Over night the gold window was closed. President de Gaulle of France extracted as much gold from the US as he could in the 1960’s. He sent French warships to load up the gold that belonged to France and took it there. Other countries followed. Imagine how enamored US officials became of de Gaulle!  (Incidentally, de Gaulle was forced to resign in 1969. Massive demonstrations took place in Paris in May of that year. Could there be any connection to de Gaulle’s independent economic and foreign policy?)  De Gaulle told the Europeans not to accept Britain into the European Union. He warned that Britain would be the American “Trojan Horse”. Georges Pompidou, a banker, then became president of France. Britain then joins the Union. Any connection there????

The dollar started to drift, and inflation and gold were rising. President Nixon introduced price control, which was not too successful. The key country in saving the dollar was Saudi Arabia. How? Let me explain. The pre emptive war which Israel carried out against the Arabs was stunningly successful; the Arabs were devastated, they lost Gaza, the West Bank along with East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights of Syria, and the Sinai.  The Suez Canal was closed. Israel controlled the Sinai bank of the Suez Canal. Then, Nasser of Egypt died. The defeat was too much for him. Anwar Al Sadat, a general, took over. A deal had to be made. Sadat broke with the Soviet Union. Secretly, the Arabs were encouraged to win their lost territories back. The Yom Kippur War started in October of 1973. Israel was losing this war. Golda Meir, the prime minister pushed back by threatening to use the “Samson Option”: that is, using nuclear weapons to win the war. Nixon ordered a huge military supply to Israel. The front stabilized and negotiations began. The Arab World formed OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Saudi Arabia, being the biggest producer and exporter, played a key role. The Petro Dollar was born. From henceforth, all oil and oil products would be traded in dollars. Every importing country had to have dollars to import oil. As for the US, all it had to do was to print paper dollars.  In 1975 Americans were allowed to buy  gold for the first time since 1935. The Shah of Iran also played a major role in the formation of OPEC. But then the Iranian Revolution came about in 1979 and the Shah was overthrown. The US lost control over Iran. Hundreds of billions of dollars of Iranian assets were frozen in the US. They are still frozen to this day. The Islamic Republic of Iran became the implacable enemy of Saudi Arabia…

Saudi Arabia is afraid of revolution a la Iran, or the possibility of a secular revolution, though this is less likely. The Saudi Royal family hates both Iran and Syria and they share a common goal with Israel:  Israel wants Syria and Iran destroyed, which would give Israel a free hand in the Middle East. (They would get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River which flows in the  shape of a hockey stick through the Bekka Valley of Lebanon into the Mediterranean Sea.) Turkey would like parts of Syria bordering  on its south eastern area in order to control the Kurdish problem. Saudi Arabia faces the Houthi independence of Yemen. The war is not going well, at least presently. The Houthis will deliver a hanjar (Arabic word for a dagger) into the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia. Europe is looking at Russia and Syria in a different light because of the massive refugee problem. If the world economy collapses further, the price of oil may go down to twenty dollars. That would implode the Kingdom, which would be followed by an Iranian style revolution. Israel will face a massive Palestinian uprising. The tragedy of this world is that morally and ethically speaking, the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are on the wrong side of history. Only time will tell…

The future is very uncertain.

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The future of the world is very uncertain. Thermo-nuclear war and the life as we know it could end instantly. In a matter of hours or days, in fact. Life on earth would be close to extinction. Most people do not think in those terms,but the individuals who plan wars do. Most people are concerned about personal matters, such as family members, their own general well being, jobs, love, and their health. In the past, world events did not have such an all encompassing effect as they do now. Presently, the whole world is interconnected. So, let us speculate about our world’s problems…

Economically, tensions are building every where. Let us look at China. Every body is claiming that China is slowing down, but so what? It is natural that China should grow at its own pace. China is resilient and the Chinese people know how to suffer and take pain…

Presently South East Asia is the most dynamic region of the world. Let us list the countries located there : the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia,Thailand,Singapore, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Indonesia. Also, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Fiji Islands and the Solomon Islands are a part of this huge region. There are some disputes amongst themselves and the Chinese concerning the resources of the South China Sea, specifically, the Spratly  Islands. Without outside interference, resolutions will be peaceful. China wants peace. This is the place where the Silk Road will start. It will have two paths: one through India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey to Europe. The other route will go through Saudi Arabia over the Gulf of Aquaba to the Sinai, Egypt and into Africa. Also it could go across the Red Sea into Africa. The other major branch of the Silk Road will go through China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Russia to Europe. In other words, Africa and Eurasia will be interconnected and intertwined. There will be no place for foreign interference. Japan will have to join or be doomed. This will be a huge community of nations of Afro-Eurasia based on equality and co-operation. The Trans Pacific Partnership will not succeed. The TPP will fail...

The nations of Latin America  and the Caribbean will join in. Trade between Latin America -Carribean  and Afro-Eurasia will use the southern routes of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The US and Canada will try to prevent this inter-continental coalescence but will not succeed. They will have to join in or face isolation. Nuclear war or any major war would prevent the inter-continental coalescence.

It is precisely for this reason, that the US and its allies want to build a Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia. As I mentioned in a previous post The Wall of Enmity , this wall would run from the three Baltic states of the north-east through Poland to the Ukraine in the south-east of Europe. That is why the Ukraine is so important to the permanent division of Europe and its subservience to the US. Many politicians and political parties of Europe are aware of this and will oppose the scheme. I do believe that Ukrainians will decide their own fate and will not join the European Union which is in serious crisis. The Ukraine and Russia are one country and one people. They have a common heart and common soul. The present junta regime in Kiev is undergoing decay. Socio-economic conditions of the country are worsening by the day. More than one million refugees have been welcomed into Russia like family members and not as refugees. It will not be European nor American gas that will keep Ukrainians warm in the winter but Russian gas. Whether war is restarted or not, Ukrainians will rebel and overthrow the Junta and foreign influence. It will be a sight to behold…

One of the key ponts of change will be in Canada and the US.These two countries are intertwined culturally, linguistically, ethnically, and historically. They are entering the greatest crisis of their existence; both are in denial. I will only discuss the US, but this discussion more or less applies to Canada as well. The strongest power on the planet is the US but its power is essentially ephemeral. The US economic system does not have strong foundations. A strong foundation for the US would be if seventy percent of the population lived and cultivated the land. The population is now too big to be fully employed in services and industry. If 200 million people lived as guardians and cultivators of the land, they would be independent and not the slaves of a debt system.They would have their own marketing and credit outside the big banks. They would become the strong back bone of the country. Instead,they are wards of the state. This is the age of Finance Capitalism based on a slavery called DEBT. This is the essence of capitalism. The US power is based on three pillars of paper,the dollar,the stock and bond markets. All three are based on debt. Will they fall together or separate remains to be seen. Time will tell….

One region that must be discussed is the Middle East. It is the cauldron of cauldrons ( see my post Large Middle East cauldron is brewing around the corner…). The structure of the Middle East has been destroyed. Iraq has been destroyed. Libya has been destroyed. Syria is being destroyed now. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States will meet their destiny in Yemen and it will be very soon. Egypt has been neutralized for the time being. Turkey is on the verge of civil war. The only countries standing tall are Israel and Iran. Iran is essentially self sufficient, but Israel is not. Sanctions against Iran hurt but do not destroy it. Iran became stronger. Israel,on the other hand, depends on a lot of aid, especially from the US and Germany. Also, Israel lacks water. It covets the waters of Lebanon. War for water is inevitable. Presently,Israel imports water from Turkey. Efforts to desalinate water are underway but it’s not enough for a high tech country such as Israel. All this destabilization of Arab countries is essentially for the benefit of Israel without the necessity of overt Israeli involvement. Israel is just waiting to pounce. And Iran is watching the situation very carefully, giving aid to the Syrian government and the Huthis of Yemen. War seems inevitable. Which side will win? It will to a large extent depend on the US economic situation. Only time will tell….

(These are some of the scenarios for the next year or two.)

 

 

 

Large Middle East couldron is brewing around the corner…

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All the ducks are lining up in a row. Opposing forces are positioning themselves. Turkey and the US are making common cause against the President of Syria, Basar El-Assad. Incerlik air base in Turkey near the Syrian border is available to the US. Saudi Arabia and Israel are about to  join the Turkish-American operation in Syria. American drones are bombing Syrian government troops, a very new development. The escalation has started. Kurds, feeling betrayed by the US,will be fighting ferociously on Assads side. There are about 35 million Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon. Almost 25 million plus are in Eastern Turkey alone. One can say that eastern Turkey is the heart of Kurdistan. Actually, the Kurds are already fighting on the Syrian government side. Erdogan, president of Turkey, does not have a majority. His rule depends on a coalition and Turkey is unstable. The Saudi Arabian regime is also not very stable.There are attacks taking place in Saudi Arabia along the Yemeni border. The war in Yemen against the Houthis is not going too well. Two days ago or so, Saudi tanks rolled into Yemen to support the forces of the former president, Hadi. Israel also supports ISIS and wants to depose Assad and partition Syria as well as Iraq. But above all, it wants the waters of the Litani River in Lebanon. Hesbullah stands in its way and Hesbullah is fighting on Assad’s side. Israel is water poor; it imports nearly half its fresh water needs from Turkey.

The forces supporting Assad are Hesbullah of Lebanon and Hamas of Gaza. Iran is supporting Assad unconditionally. With the sanctions against Iran removed, its power has increased. If Turkey and the US send troops into Syria, Iran will send its volunteers. And of course,there are Russia and China who support Syria. Russia will not back off in Syria. China will also not back off. President Putin of Russia had a very intense meeting with the Turkish ambassador recently. It was reportedly two hours long. It is alleged that he told the Turkish ambassador that if Turkey invades Syria, Russia will make sure that Syria becomes the Turkish Stalingrad. This time, the Kurds will fight ISIS, the Turks, and the US to the death. The Turkish gas pipe-line will not be built. War is starting. Turkey, the US, Israel, the Saudis, and ISIS say Assad must go. Iran,China,Russia say: NO WAY.