Category Archives: nuclear war

How would a US/Israel vs Iran War play out?

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The US is under tremendous Israeli pressure to attack and destroy Iran. It wants to start off by asphyxiating the country economically first but if that does not work, then attack it militarily, and the sooner the better.

Iran (or Persia) has been rather peaceful for at least two centuries until the present day. During the Second World War, Iran was neutral early on, but was invaded by the British and the Soviets. Britain took control of Iranian oil via the Anglo- Iranian Oil Company. Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill agreed at the Tehran Conference of November 28-December 1,1943 to Iranian independence within its present boundaries. The Soviets then left but the British stayed. Dr. Mossadegh was elected president but in 1953 was overthrown by US/UK for nationalizing  Iranian oil. The Shah of the Pahlavi Dynasty was restored to power. The Shah was the most pro-American and pro-Israeli leader of the Middle East. He was the main US weapons buyer in the Middle East and a most devoted friend of Israel. He parked his extra cash from oil in US Treasuries in the amount of 150 billion dollars which the US Government froze/ confiscated after the Iranian Revolution of 1979 led by Imam Khomeini.

Khomeini withdrew recognition of the State of Israel. The result was the US then enticed Saddam Hussein to attack Iran in 1980. Iran fought Iraq to a draw despite isolation and Iraqi use of poison gas. The West did not condemn Saddam Hussein for using poison gas. Today, Iran is not isolated. It is surrounded by friendly countries: Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, India, Russia. Also, China. It will be hard to isolate Iran. Sanctions will not work. Seems that war is inevitable but Iran will not attack anybody unless attacked.

As I tweeted several times earlier this year, Iran along with Turkey is one of the most geo-strategically important countries in the world. Major events of world history have played out here and will continue to play out in the future. The question is, will there be a war in the Middle East which may end life on Earth? Asphyxiation economics and a coup d’etat will be tried first.

Will the US attack Iran? This is the question of our time. The best solution would be peaceful resolution. The US has proclaimed Iran a terrorist state because of its support for the Palestinians, Hesballah, and Syria. But Iran is in Syria legally, while the US is there illegally. Amazing! Because of the Hesballah and Palestinian uprising, Israel is hemmed in. If war starts between the US and Iran, it will be due to provocation. It will be horrible. Both sides will suffer and sustain heavy casualties. The idea is to overthrow the Islamic Republic. But if that is not possible, then to destroy Iran to such an extent that it will never be a threat to Israel ever again. Then, Israel would be the supreme power in the Middle East with the freedom of action without any consequences. The destruction would be immense in the greater Middle East. Oil would not be available at any price. Without energy there is no modern economy or life. But Iran will not buckle. Confrontation between Russia and the US will be inevitable. Nuclear weapons would be used. Israel would use its nuclear arsenal; Iran would destroy Israel. A Third World War could be inevitable. All life on Earth would end. These will be the consequences of a US/Israeli attack on Iran. Embrace peace, not war!

North Korea, what is next?

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Tension is building in the Korean Peninsula. The US threatens to attack North Korea because of missile tests. North Korea, or any other country for that matter, has the right to test their missiles. So North Korea has been testing its missiles. The response must be, so what?

North Korea is isolated by the West and not by the rest of the world. So, western sanctions are not life threatening. It is very independent where as South Korea, more developed and relatively prosperous, is not. South Korea is occupied by the US. The US has military bases there, and 28,000 troops on the border with North Korea. Also, anti-Americanism is rather well developed in South Korea.

President Trump has said that if China does not take care of North Korea, the US will. This is bluster. If the US attacks, the North Koreans would fight back. The US just tested MOAB, the mother of all bombs, in Afghanistan. A powerful weapon, but North Koreans are showing no fear.  Why? In war, North Korea would destroy US forces there. Seoul would be wiped out. South Korea would be massively damaged. The US would have to go nuclear. North Korea would respond in kind, hitting Japan and US forces there. China would interfere. Nobody would win. A destructive stalemate would develop. Three countries would be destroyed: North and South Korea, possibly Japan. Also, US forces in Korea would be massively damaged or destroyed. Korea is a sideshow. Lots of thunder and very little rain. The real action will be the Ukraine, Syria-Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and any other hot spot that develops.

It is quite possible that the US would lose its teeth and lower jaw in total war with North Korea. Also, South Korea may rebel against US occupation. It would be truly ironic, if South Korea bolts. There are many ironies in History.

Large Middle East War is inevitable

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There are different wars going on in the Middle East, all of them more or less going on at the same time. The purpose of the war in Syria is to partition it. The facade reason is that the “killer dictator” Assad must go. If Syria is partitioned into a Kurdish North East where the Euphrates flows, then water could be pumped to water-starved Israel by land and by sea. ISIS has been losing in Syria, although the final word has yet to be spoken. Whoever started ISIS is an enigma. Selling oil and financial transactions via SWIFT, (the Society for World-wide International Financial Transactions controlled by Federal Reserve Bank of New York), are not impeded by the US. Turkey is in Syria to prevent the creation of a Kurdish State, which would of course be a threat to its’ existence. Turkey initially supported ISIS because it felt it could occupy Syria’s Kurdish region but Erdogan switched after the coup d’état.

Turkey, despite being a NATO member, is being destabilized. South East Turkey, predominantly Kurdish, would be split to join the Kurdish areas of Syria, Iraq, and Iran into a greater Kurdistan which would then be friendly to Israel. Israel would then have an abundance of cheap water, oil, and gas. Turkey knows this. It is switching to Assad’s Syria, Iran, and Russia. A quiet alliance is forming between Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. The “One Belt, One Road” policy of China will go through Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, via the Balkans into Europe. The US is also quietly organizing an Arab anti-Iran alliance that is friendly to Israel,  composed of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia.

The partitioning of Iraq was in the cards of the West: the Sunni West around Ramadi, the Shia south from Baghdad to Basra, and the Kurdish north east around Kirkuk; possibly Mosul as well.

Lebanon would also be destroyed and Israel would get the water of the Litani River. So far, Israel has not been successful.

The Yemeni-Saudi war is not going too well. The Houthis are holding their own against the Saudis. It is quite likely that the Yemeni war will lead to a Saudi demise.

For all the problems in the Middle East, the US and Israel are blaming Iran as the major culprit. Because of Iranian missile testing, (which is not a violation of Nuclear Agreement that US has signed), the US and Israel are threatening Iran.

If the US and Israel attack Iran, Iran will respond by closing the Persian Gulf. the price of oil would go sky high. There would be a shortage of oil world wide. Iran would hit Israel with missiles. If Israel goes nuclear, Iran would try to destroy the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev desert. If Israel persisted with nuclear attack, Pakistan would lend Iran several nuclear bombs to hit Israel in return and a world wide chain reaction would follow resulting in a total collapse of many regions of the world.

Let us hope this does not happen. Only time will tell.

Is war between Russia and the US inevitable?

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The question, whether war between Russia and the US is inevitable needs serious analysis. The US considers Russia an existential threat, even though it is not. Biblical religions believed that the earth was flat, and anybody who questioned that faced serious consequences, yet, we know that the earth was never flat.  The US wants to destroy Russia, and impose Unipolarity on the  World. Duality or bipolarity is the natural phenomenon of the Universe. Good and Evil are the duality of the Universal Force, and whether Russia or the US is pursuing the policy of good or evil will be revealed by coming events.

The plan to destroy Russia is many, many centuries old. We know the plans of the Teutonic Germanic Knights, and how they ended in 1242, when Alexander Nevsky, lured the German armored cavalry on the frozen water of Lake Ladoga, and destroyed them. A brilliant strategy that is not taught in Anglo- American schools, as is not the greatest scientist of the 20th Century, Nikola Tesla. The US attempt is the latest of many attempts to destroy Russia.

The Cold War was an attempt by the Anglo-Americans to destroy Russia. The dissolution of the USSR was started by Khrushchev and finished by Gorbachev and Yeltsin. It is ironic that the name of Khrushchev is derived from the Russian word for beetle, Hroshch. The USSR dissolved but, Russia, like the Phoenix, underwent resurrection.

Russia in 2016 is facing the possibility of preventive war of total annihilation by the US on Russia. Russia today is in similar situation that USSR was in 1941 when Germany with all of the Europe under its control, unleashed total, destructive war of annihilation against the USSR. We all know how the German war ended in the invasion of the USSR.

There is a danger that preventive war of annihilation by the US against Russia led by Neo-cons who essentially control the US, may start at any moment. American People do not want war and that is one of the reasons that Americans are flocking to Mr. Donald Trump, and that is one of the main reasons why the Neo-cons and their allies hate Trump. Trump wants to develop a Modus Vivendi with Russia.

May I remind the Neo-cons that in the case of preventive war against Russia, a Russian counter strike would be super, super massive. A hydrogen bomb of a hundred million tons of TNT, the tsar bomba, if it hit the San Andreas Fault, would make California the new desert island of the Pacific Ocean. Just imagine what would happen to the rest of the country. My advice to the Ruling Elite of the US is to make a symbiotic Modus Vivendi, not only with Russia, but also with the rest of the world. Live peacefully and do not try to  rule the world.

Only time will reveal whether my analysis is true.

 

Quo Vadis, 2016?

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2016 may turn out to be a very significant year. Many thought that 2015 would be the year of the stock market crash, but this didn’t happen. Many more negatives than positives occurred in 2015 though. Stock indecis reached new highs in the first half of the year, and now at the end of the year are in correction mode. It is not likely that they will crash in the last few days of trading remaining, although they could, since nobody expects it.

On the world scene, the West and Turkey were exposed as chief supporters of ISIS, in addition to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. The Paris and San Bernardino tragedies should not have been a surprise. The Russian plane disaster in Egypt was a surprise but the Western press did not moan about it. The Beirut bombing by ISIS did not get much coverage. The Turkish destruction of a Russian bomber over Syria was not really condemned by the West. The hypocrisy of the West was in full bloom in the Ukraine, the Middle East, South East Asia and other places in the world.

Also in 2015, precious metals, oil, and other commodities collapsed. The dollar was strong and Third World economies were in a severe depression. Canada, Australia, and some European states were entering a depression, but Russia just got stronger. China was trying to stabilize its economy. The Yuan became an International Reserve Currency member, and even though only as a junior partner, this is just the beginning.

What will 2016 bring? It will be much more exciting than 2015. It could be the Year of Super Black Swans. The most important event that will most likely take place is the American presidential election in November. There is a lot of anger and discontent in this country that the mainstream media does not show but which will fully manifest itself this Election Year. There is only one candidate that stands out, and that is Donald Trump. He is politically “incorrect” and people love it. All other candidates, Republican and Democratic, are nothing more than cookie cutter “apparachicks”. Powerful people in the country want to resuscitate Senator Ted Cruz, but they will not succeed; Donald Trump, on the Republican side is unstoppable and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

The economy will play a key role in these elections. In an earlier post I stated that the present US economy is based on three pillars of paper: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and all three are supported by debt. This situation cannot be sustained. The presidential election and the economy may turn out to be very ugly and a super bad Black Swan may manifest itself.

There is a war going on between Russia and the US, whether people realize this or not. The US wants to destroy Russia, leave it fragmented, and plundered. The war in the Ukraine may start any moment. The Kiev regime days are numbered. It will lash out and lose. History is on Novorossia’s side. When war starts, the Ukrainian Army will desert. Only Western mercenaries and jihadis will fight on the Kiev Junta side. The Ukrainian People will rebel and chase the Junta out of Kiev. A super Black Swan may develop in the Ukraine.

A super, super bad Black Swan may develop in the Middle East. It is sad that the West, Israel, and Turkey are supporting ISIS. There is a danger of an Israeli- Hesballah war. Hesballah is heavily engaged in operations against ISIS in Syria, so Israel may take the opportunity to attack Hesballah and get the waters of the Litani River. Israel desperately needs water. Hesballah may not be a pushover. Also, Palestanians will join in the fight against Israel. ISIS might lose the war in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has invaded Northern Iraq around Mosul. The Kurds in Turkey are rising up. Saudi Arabia is not doing well in Yemen. The US, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia may lose because they are on wrong side of History. Nuclear weapons  may be used. A super bad Black swan may develop.

The European Union is in deep crisis; it has no independent foreign policy  Economically, many of its’ countries are in a deep depression.The Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria are in a depression. France, Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are no better. Germany and Scandinavia are also suffering. The Russian sanctions have boomeranged. A super Black Swan here is not likely in 2016. A shifting of Europe from the North Atlantic to Russia is likely though, and migration will be a big problem.

Africa is waking up and wants to control its natural resources. It is shifting East. A super bad Black Swan here is not likely. Latin America is somewhat less stable. The governments of Venezuela, Brasil, and other Latin American republics will be under attack but will survive. The collapse of commodity prices and dollar debt will be a big problem for Africa and Latin America. The shift to the East will continue in this coming year.

The Indian Subcontinent will be fairly stable. The Taliban will gain strength and possibly gain power. The TAPI pipeline is being built from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to India. The Taliban will not oppose it. Iran is developing a very strong strategic partnership with Russia. This Iran-Russia partnership is one of the most natural partnerships to develop in the world. India is developing a strong relationship with Russia and Iran as well. This will continue in 2016. Putin  made a visit to Iran this year, and Prime Minister Modi of India visited Russia this week confirming the desire for this relationship.

China is developing a strong relationship with Russia. China and Russia realize they have to stick together or they will hang separately. South East Asia, despite the TPP, will move closer to China. It will develop Modus Vivendi with China. Its prosperity depends on close co-operation with China. China is the magnet that is pulling the world away from the US. A confrontation in the South China Sea is just one example. But the chances of a Black Swan in South East Asia is not very likely in 2016.

In Summary, 2016 will see increased confrontation between Russia and the US. The dollar will be under attack and gold will rise. Events occurring this year in the US will confirm that the US is in pre-revolutionary state. If powerful individuals try to eliminate Donald Trump, people will rebel. If one of the three paper pillars of the economy cracks, the whole system will collapse. The chances of nuclear war will increase. 2016 will be the beginning of the end of tall buildings, the most wasteful symbols of the system based on waste, arrogance, and greed. People will be returning to simpler things, a respect for natural things, like respect for Mother Earth. It is the only home we’ve got. Happy New Year!

 

QUO VADIS? AMERICA LATINA

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Latin America is a huge region, extending from the Rio Grande in the North to Tierra del Fuego in the South. Historical Spanish America extends from the Straits of Juan de Fuca to las Islas de Malvinas (otherwise known as the Falkland Islands, presently under British control). Ibero-America or Latin America is the appropriate term, because it includes Portuguese and Spanish parts. It is a region of over seven million square miles and over seven hundred million people. It will have a great future and great influence in the world provided there is no nuclear war, but we know that some kind of war is in the making…

The first thing Latin America wants and needs to do is to achieve total geo-economic independence; this goes without saying. Latin America has been perpetually dominated by foreigners, first, Spain and Portugal as its’ original colonizing  “Mother Countries”, and then since its independence from them in 1821, by the US. As a matter of fact, around 1800, President John Adams sent a naval squadron to Rio de la Plata to demonstrate that Latin America was to be a vassal in the American sphere of influence. In 1823, President James Monroe in his seventh State of the Union address proclaimed that the US would not tolerate European Powers in Latin America, a proclamation that came to be known as ” the Monroe Doctrine”. And thus the exploitation of Latin America began and continues on to this day. In 1966, US economic entities extracted 44 billion dollars from Latin America. Gold at that time was convertible at 35 dollars an ounce. This exploitation has been very profitable although presently, it has somewhat lessened. In 1966, converting 44 billion dollars into ounces of gold at 35 dollars an ounce was equal to 1. 257,142,800 billion ounces of gold. These gold ounces converted into dollars at today’s gold price in dollars would be over one trillion three hundred billion dollars.

To maintain its position in Latin America, the US established the Organization of American States, officially as a bulwark against Communism, but in reality, an instrument to control Latin America. Canada joined this organization several years ago, but has less and less relevance to it, if it ever had any. The policy of the US towards Latin America was straightforward, and is in keeping with its general foreign policy throughout the world today:  overthrow governments which oppose US policy. First they were demonized and economically squeezed, and, if that didn’t work, they  were overthrown. Some examples of these erstwhile leaders: President Arbenz of Guatemala for opposing the United Fruit Company, aka United Brands; the attempted overthrow of the Cuban Revolution and Fidel Castro in the Bay of Pigs in 1972;  the tragedy of President Allende of Chile on September 11,1973 (the first 911), and there are many others…

Most Latin American regimes are oligarchical, but even they realize they must preserve and protect the natural resources of their countries, and they are no longer willing to submit to the US. They formed MERCOSUR in 1991 (the common Market of the South, or Southern Common Market ( in Spanish, Mercado Comun del Sur, in Portuguese, Mercado Comum do Sul). Member states are: Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Brazil, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Associate members are: Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and Suriname. Observer countries are Mexico, and an outsider country, New Zealand; the US and Canada do not participate. There are other fraternal organizations as well. The great leaders of Latin America are deeply respected and provide unity and inspiration to these nations, everyone from Simon Bolivar of Gran Colombia, Jose De La San Martin of Argentina to recent and present leaders such as Fidel Castro, Che Guevara of Cuba, Allende of Chile, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Nestor Kichner and his wife, Cristina Fernandes  of Argentina. One must not forget the great leader of Bolivia, President Evo Morales, President Mujica of Uruguay, and ex-President Lula da Silva of Brasil. Also present-day Presidents Guttierez of Ecuador, Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, Dilma Roussef of Brasil, and Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela. The latter leaders are under attack but they will survive, and there are others…

Whether the leaders be oligarchical or progressive, they know they must protect their independence. They can only do that through the unity of Latin America and now joining forces with Afro-Euro-Asia. Only time will tell.

 

The Big Shift

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The world is shifting, whether one likes it or not. It is inevitable. As I mentioned in an earlier post, there are two international communities: the one of the West, and the other of the Rest. The International Community of the rest is much bigger, and consists of more than six billion people. The International Community of the West, up until recently, played the leading role. Not anymore. The International Community of the Rest refused to sanction Russia because of Crimea. The Western Community sanctioned Russia for which its members in Europe are suffering. The US wants to destroy Russia, partition it into three parts and exploit it. By destroying Russia, the West would be able to control China on all sides, hence achieving the domination of the world. But right now, the world is at a stalemate. This stalemate cannot persist for long because of the inherent instability; it requires too much energy. Projecting power a la US is very expensive. The US is able to do this because of the unique status of the dollar in the world. The dollar is after all, the official currency of the world. The world is supporting the use and value of the dollar, while the US prints it. What a beautiful arrangement!.

By trying to sanction Russia, the US wanted to destroy it. But the West does not know Russia, its people, its history, or its culture. Russia is an unassailable fortress. It is totally self sufficient. Morally and ethically speaking, Russia is on the right side of history. An American,Edgar Cayce, once said that Russia is the hope of the world. The Pentagon boys and the Wall Street boys should be aware of this. The International Community of the Rest is aware of this, and is siding with Russia. Defending the independence of nations is morally and ethically correct. Destroying countries, nations, and installing puppets is immoral and evil. The world is realizing this and is coalescing with Russia. Russia and China have close relations. In trade,they are using their currencies, not the dollar. There is the Shanghai Co-operation Organization composed of China, Russia, and Mongolia. Many of the former Soviet Central Asian Republics are also members, like Kazakhstan, Uzbehkistan. Tajikistan, and Kyrgizia. India and Pakistan have recently joined. Iran has observer status but it also wants to join. The Eurasian Union consists of Armenia, Kirgistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Russia. Vietnam recently joined. MERCOSUR of Latin America is negotiating with the Eurasian Union about joining. (Members of MERCOSUR are Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay.)

The US is also moving towards forming trading blocks in the Pacific and the Atlantic, known as Trans Pacific Partnership, and the Trans Atlantic Free Trade. The TPP is almost finished, but rans Atlantic talks are not going that well. There could be confrontation brewing between the International Community of the West led by the US and the International Community of the Rest coalescing around the Russia Federation. Nuclear war cannot be excluded.