Category Archives: the Middle East

The British-American-Israeli Alliance

Five areas of serious confrontation are in progress in the Middle East: Syrian, Iraqi, Saudi-Yemeni, Israeli-Palestinian, and Israeli-Lebanese, and all five are interconnected. The key confrontation of the five is the Syrian conflict. A victory in Syria by either side will decide the fate of the Middle East and the world. There can be no compromise, hence there is a danger of wider conflict.

If the American side wins, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon would be partitioned along ethnic and religious lines. The biggest winner would be Israel, and the biggest losers would be the Palestinians; they would probably be expelled from their homeland. Gas and oil pipelines would be built from Qatar and other Gulf States to Europe. Also, oil and gas from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen would be shipped to Europe via the same pipelines to lessen the European dependence on Russian gas. The dollar would be the official currency of trade. Turkey would also be a winner, but its reward would be minimal. The biggest losers of all would be the Arabs of the Middle East, they would be totally emasculated; other big losers would include the Russians and the Iranians.

If, on the other hand, the Syrian government wins, Syria would become a very powerful state and a great rebuilding would take place. The Syrian people will have enough strength to rebuild their country. With a Syrian victory, ISIS in Iraq would have no chance. Iraq would also rise up and become a powerful state. The Saudi, the Jordanian, and Gulf regimes would collapse. The Palestinians might even achieve their independence from Israel. The big winners would also be the Iranians and the Russians. The Europeans would start drifting towards Russia, one country at a time. And the biggest loser would be the British-American-Israeli Alliance. President Assad would become the national Arab hero who stood up to the British-America-Israeli Alliance and  ISIS.

How the wind will blow and how history will flow remains a big question. Only time will tell.

The Dollar Armageddon

The essential plan of the West is total domination of the Earth, which would result in the flow of all natural resources and all natural wealth to the International Community of the West from the rest, as was done under Colonialism. This new phase of exploitation is being carried out under the banner of Globalization. The Anglo-Americans, the British Empire and the US, were the organizers of the new financial system in 1944 at Bretton Woods, New  Hampshire, US., today known as the Bretton Woods Agreement. The chief players were John Maynard Keynes of the UK, Harry Dexter White, and Henry Morgenthau Jr. of the US Treasury.

The Anglo-Americans realized that the Colonized World wanted to be decolonized and independent, and since they could not prevent decolonization, they decided they could slow it down and install their own puppets. Any new leader who rebelled against Western control would be overthrown or even killed. Winston Churchill proclaimed the Cold War against the USSR in 1947 in Fulton Head, Missouri, USA. Patrice Lumumba of the Belgian Congo comes to mind. He was impaled and killed in 1961.

Globalization began. Beautiful phrases, such as “Food for Peace” programs were used to entrap  newly independent states. Foreign Aid was used not to help but to enslave. The International Monetary Fund{IMF}, and the World Bank were the chief agents of debt enslavement.The Cold War was in full swing.

Despite the massive destruction of the USSR caused by the German invasion in the Second World War, the basic living standard of the Soviet Union was higher than that of the US.  Housing was tight, and families lived together in cramped quarters because of the war destruction, but the Soviet People had jobs, free education, free health care, one month vacation, and one year maternity leave with pay. Public transportation was available. Just compare the metro systems of the two countries in the nineteen fifties. Basic consumer goods were available, but an abundance of consumer goods was not. The Soviet People had job security and a sense of serenity which was not available to the West.

Western policy makers decided to push three things on the world: abundant consumerism vs socialist austerity, wide spread debt at home and abroad, and world-wide militarization as exemplified by NATO, SEATO, and CENTO*; in other words globalization. US banks and corporations were everywhere. American Culture, food, and military bases were everywhere; the US was omnipotent. Credit cards were introduced in the 1960’s. (Remember the commercial for American Express? “Don’t leave home without it.”) Western corporations yearned for profit and huge profits were associated with cheap labour. Western factories were moving East to China, when China opened up in 1979, and to other countries of the East and South as well.

Wages in the US were deteriorating for the working class since the early sixties of the last century, but the US corporation has been doing great. In the 18th and 19th centuries Western corporations were moving slaves from Africa to the plantations of North America, the West Indies, and South America. In the latter half of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st Century, corporations have been moving their plantations, factories, to the slaves. 95% of Americans today belong to what I call the Precariat Class, a totally dispossessed economic class.

In 2016, Americans still don’t have tax based universal health care, no free education of superior quality, no affordable housing, no public transportation, and outright home ownership is only around 11%. No wonder Americans are angry, and this is why Donald Trump is winning. The ownership class cannot stop him in an “honest way”, so they will try to stop him either by hook or by crook. Massive demonstrations may occur in defense of Trump. Martial law may be imposed, and the presidential election may be postponed or even cancelled.

Economic conditions are no better. Real unemployment is high, anywhere from 20% to 42%. Wages are stagnating. Ninety million Americans are not working. Obesity, a side effect of the American economic system, is in epidemic mode. Sixty six percent are obese and thirty seven percent are morbidly obese. Chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, cancer are rampant. Life expectancy is going down. Basic infrastructure is collapsing. People are over medicated. Grocery stores are full of embalmed, genetically modified food ( but beautifully packaged!). All for profit, and without giving a damn about people or the environment. Just look at Flint, Michigan and their drinking water. The US, the hope of mankind, is becoming a third world country.

The world economy is no better. Much of the world is either in severe recession or depression. The Baltic Dry Index has imploded, with slight improvement lately. World consumption has collapsed, hence massive slowdown from South Korea to Germany. Japan is in perpetual depression. China is slowing down. Latin America, Africa, and South Asia are either in near or full depressions. Canada, Australia, the European Union are either in severe recession or are entering one. The Ukraine is on the verge of exploding. The Middle East is a cauldron that will enlarge. The only area of stability is Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Sanctions against Russia are great blessings in disguise. Import substitution and self reliance are engines of growth and power. Presently, Brazil and Venezuela are being destabilized from outside and inside.

In summary, unnecessary consumption is collapsing world wide. Debt in dollar terms is still growing  but at a snail’s pace. World wide trade is collapsing. Countries with an independent foreign policy such as India, Iran, China, Russia, and others are accumulating gold and shunning the dollar. This is a nightmare for the US. It is quite possible that some obscure company somewhere in the South Asian region will reject trade in dollars, but will accept gold or Chinese yuan. Panic will set in. The dollar could drop by twenty percent in overnight trade. Gold and silver would sky rocket. Trade between the US and the world would collapse. Interest rates in dollars would rise to an unbelievable level, but would not help the dollar. The US could not import anything with its currency, but only with gold or some foreign currency which was convertible to gold. The Armageddon of the dollar is coming. The ownership elite of the US will know for the first time in its history what it’s like to actually work for a living rather than living off the suffering and labor of others. My analysis is very, very correct and true but only time will reveal that.

 

*= NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization SEATO: Southeast Asia Treaty Organization

     CENTO: Central Treaty Organization

 

 

 

A coveted prize, the Litani River of Lebanon

The Middle East has plenty of oil and gas, but water is in short supply. No country feels the lack of a natural water supply like Israel. Israel has only one river, which it has to share with Jordan,and that is the River Jordan which is being gradually depleted as it empties into the Dead Sea. Some natural water comes from the Syrian Golan Heights captured in the 1967 War, and desalination of sea water is another source but it is rather expensive. So, Israel is forced to import water, almost close to half of what it needs, from Turkey.

Israel is highly advanced  technically. It also has thriving agriculture with migrant workers from Africa. Both sectors use large amounts of water. The rate of water usage constantly increases, hence the constant need for more water. The adjacent state of Lebanon has fairly abundant water resources.

Israel is probably the fourth most powerful country in the world. It has nuclear weapons, a delivery system Jericho rocket range of 11000 kilometers, and a sea based missile system on diesel submarines supplied by Germany. It also has an anti-missile system, called the Iron Dome. It produces its own tanks, The Merkawa; its own jet fighter, the Kfir, plus other high tech weapons. It also gets most of its modern jet fighters from the US. The Israeli Defence Forces are highly trained and motivated. So Israel has everything except the water, and that is the problem. War over water is inevitable; the Litani River of Lebanon is in play.

Israel wants to play the victim, it wants to claim it had no choice. Its main opponent is Hezbollah of Lebanon. Hezbollah is well armed with modern weapons, including missiles which can reach any part of Israel. Hezbollah is presently helping President Assad of Syria. They are battle tested and will fight an asymmetrical war. The outcome could be very uncertain. Only time will tell.

Turkey is on a suicide mission

Turkey’s leadership is in hysterics. By shooting down a Russian plane over Syria, it wanted to provoke a confrontation or even war between NATO and Russia. Turkey hoped to be a key player in the confrontation, but this attempt did not succeed. It has been an overall failure. What the Turks do not realize is that they are on the side of lies and deception. If Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Hesbollah of Lebanon were to be destroyed, the chief beneficiary would be the State of Israel. The above mentioned countries would be fragmented into small sheikdoms under Israeli control. In this arrangement, Turkey would only play a subordinate role. All the wealth of the Middle East would be in the in the hands of Western Corporations. All the land between the two rivers, the Nile and the Euphrates would be under Israeli control. The Israeli Flag symbolizes this concept which may occur in the not too distant future. The US definitely supports this policy. That is why the US, Israel, Turkey, Wahabi Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States support ISIS. The US wants to use Turkey as the spear against Syria and Iraq, and indirectly against Iran and Russia.

Would Turkey be an effective spear of the US in the Middle East?  That is a big unknown, because, Turkey has a huge internal problem called the Kurds. Kurds account for about  25 percent of Turkey’s population, and that is around twenty million people. All of South East Turkey is Kurdish. Kurds want greater autonomy, if not total independence. Turkey has a powerful military that has never been tested.  For Turkey, to so call  “liberate Aleppo” it would need a force of at least 25 to 30 thousand. It would have to face the Syrian Army which has rejuvenated itself. Nothing rejuvenates an army more quickly than a string of victories. In the last six weeks, the Syrian army has had a series of successes. Helping the Syrian Army would be Hesbollah of Lebanon, the Iraqis, the Iranians, and the Russian Aviation. The Saudis claim they would like to fight, and they may, they would enter Syria via Jordan. The Iraqi Shias would destroy them.  The US, Britain, and Israel would help the Turks. NATO would be neutral because it would lack unanimity.

The war will be bloody. But the morality and ethics of the Universe will be on the side of Syria. The Turkish incursion into Syria, if it takes place, would be a suicide mission. The morality and ethics of the Universe are on Syrian Government side because it’s defending the independence and dignity of its people. The crucial battle for Aleppo is taking place. Syria and its allies have an upper hand. US is calling for cease fire because its side is losing. ISIS and the others are on the run. The city of Aleppo is about to be liberated by Syrian troops. The US wants cessation of fire so its side gets re-enforcement and supplies from Turkey, or Turkey intervenes directly. It is not likely that Syria and its Allies will fall for this trick.

If Turkey intervenes it will face the Kurds of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. A Kurdish war of independence would arise in Turkey. Turkey could disintegrate. Other ethnic groups such as the Armenians would also rise up. Remember the Armenian Genocide by the Turks in the First World War One. Also the Balkan States of Serbia. Montenegro. Macedonia, Greece, and Bulgaria might gang up on Turkey and expel it from Europe. They would recapture Constantinople. Do not doubt this, they did it once before. Two members are in NATO, Greece, Bulgaria, and Montenegro is being offered membership. Turkey, of course, is also a member. NATO is being enlarged on the insistence of the US, but, at the same time it is disintegrating.  Also, all these Balkan States are Greek Orthodox as is Russia. Basilica, Saint Sophia, now a mosque is a symbol of Greek Orthodoxy. It would be Ironic if this happened but History is full of Irony. Irony is a cosmic manifestation of Truth and Justice. Turkey has a choice, be a peaceful good neighbor, be good to all its ethnic groups or face disintegration. Under present leadership, Turkey will most likely choose suicide. Only time will tell.

 

Quo Vadis, 2016?

2016 may turn out to be a very significant year. Many thought that 2015 would be the year of the stock market crash, but this didn’t happen. Many more negatives than positives occurred in 2015 though. Stock indecis reached new highs in the first half of the year, and now at the end of the year are in correction mode. It is not likely that they will crash in the last few days of trading remaining, although they could, since nobody expects it.

On the world scene, the West and Turkey were exposed as chief supporters of ISIS, in addition to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. The Paris and San Bernardino tragedies should not have been a surprise. The Russian plane disaster in Egypt was a surprise but the Western press did not moan about it. The Beirut bombing by ISIS did not get much coverage. The Turkish destruction of a Russian bomber over Syria was not really condemned by the West. The hypocrisy of the West was in full bloom in the Ukraine, the Middle East, South East Asia and other places in the world.

Also in 2015, precious metals, oil, and other commodities collapsed. The dollar was strong and Third World economies were in a severe depression. Canada, Australia, and some European states were entering a depression, but Russia just got stronger. China was trying to stabilize its economy. The Yuan became an International Reserve Currency member, and even though only as a junior partner, this is just the beginning.

What will 2016 bring? It will be much more exciting than 2015. It could be the Year of Super Black Swans. The most important event that will most likely take place is the American presidential election in November. There is a lot of anger and discontent in this country that the mainstream media does not show but which will fully manifest itself this Election Year. There is only one candidate that stands out, and that is Donald Trump. He is politically “incorrect” and people love it. All other candidates, Republican and Democratic, are nothing more than cookie cutter “apparachicks”. Powerful people in the country want to resuscitate Senator Ted Cruz, but they will not succeed; Donald Trump, on the Republican side is unstoppable and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

The economy will play a key role in these elections. In an earlier post I stated that the present US economy is based on three pillars of paper: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and all three are supported by debt. This situation cannot be sustained. The presidential election and the economy may turn out to be very ugly and a super bad Black Swan may manifest itself.

There is a war going on between Russia and the US, whether people realize this or not. The US wants to destroy Russia, leave it fragmented, and plundered. The war in the Ukraine may start any moment. The Kiev regime days are numbered. It will lash out and lose. History is on Novorossia’s side. When war starts, the Ukrainian Army will desert. Only Western mercenaries and jihadis will fight on the Kiev Junta side. The Ukrainian People will rebel and chase the Junta out of Kiev. A super Black Swan may develop in the Ukraine.

A super, super bad Black Swan may develop in the Middle East. It is sad that the West, Israel, and Turkey are supporting ISIS. There is a danger of an Israeli- Hesballah war. Hesballah is heavily engaged in operations against ISIS in Syria, so Israel may take the opportunity to attack Hesballah and get the waters of the Litani River. Israel desperately needs water. Hesballah may not be a pushover. Also, Palestanians will join in the fight against Israel. ISIS might lose the war in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has invaded Northern Iraq around Mosul. The Kurds in Turkey are rising up. Saudi Arabia is not doing well in Yemen. The US, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia may lose because they are on wrong side of History. Nuclear weapons  may be used. A super bad Black swan may develop.

The European Union is in deep crisis; it has no independent foreign policy  Economically, many of its’ countries are in a deep depression.The Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria are in a depression. France, Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are no better. Germany and Scandinavia are also suffering. The Russian sanctions have boomeranged. A super Black Swan here is not likely in 2016. A shifting of Europe from the North Atlantic to Russia is likely though, and migration will be a big problem.

Africa is waking up and wants to control its natural resources. It is shifting East. A super bad Black Swan here is not likely. Latin America is somewhat less stable. The governments of Venezuela, Brasil, and other Latin American republics will be under attack but will survive. The collapse of commodity prices and dollar debt will be a big problem for Africa and Latin America. The shift to the East will continue in this coming year.

The Indian Subcontinent will be fairly stable. The Taliban will gain strength and possibly gain power. The TAPI pipeline is being built from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to India. The Taliban will not oppose it. Iran is developing a very strong strategic partnership with Russia. This Iran-Russia partnership is one of the most natural partnerships to develop in the world. India is developing a strong relationship with Russia and Iran as well. This will continue in 2016. Putin  made a visit to Iran this year, and Prime Minister Modi of India visited Russia this week confirming the desire for this relationship.

China is developing a strong relationship with Russia. China and Russia realize they have to stick together or they will hang separately. South East Asia, despite the TPP, will move closer to China. It will develop Modus Vivendi with China. Its prosperity depends on close co-operation with China. China is the magnet that is pulling the world away from the US. A confrontation in the South China Sea is just one example. But the chances of a Black Swan in South East Asia is not very likely in 2016.

In Summary, 2016 will see increased confrontation between Russia and the US. The dollar will be under attack and gold will rise. Events occurring this year in the US will confirm that the US is in pre-revolutionary state. If powerful individuals try to eliminate Donald Trump, people will rebel. If one of the three paper pillars of the economy cracks, the whole system will collapse. The chances of nuclear war will increase. 2016 will be the beginning of the end of tall buildings, the most wasteful symbols of the system based on waste, arrogance, and greed. People will be returning to simpler things, a respect for natural things, like respect for Mother Earth. It is the only home we’ve got. Happy New Year!

 

TURKISH BOOMERANG II

Geopolitical changes of great significance are taking place in Eastern Europe, specifically in the Ukraine but also in the Middle East. The US wants at all cost to build the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf, and to the Indian Ocean, possibly to South East Asia, as far as the Philippines. But for the moment, let us study and analyse the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf: the US wants to expel Russia from the Ukraine and Syria, that’s very clear. It would also like to control Iran, but to do that, it would have to destroy it.

The US would like to reduce the relationship between the European Union and Russia to a bare minimum, but to do that it needs alternative sources of energy with which to supply Europe. The Middle East would be that source. The greatest oil and natural gas reserves in the world are located in the Middle East, and if the US and its friends were able to control those resources and their channels of delivery, it would be able to control the destinies of the entire world, East or West, North or South. So, these wars we have now in the Ukraine, Syria and Iraq are struggles for the control of the World…

Let us make some suppositions. Suppose the US and its allies win. They would end up controlling all that natural wealth, and be able to control energy supplies to Europe, China, and the Indian subcontinent. They would dictate the price denominated in DOLLARS. The dollar would become the permanent official currency of the world. In addition, if they got control of Iran, they would also control the production and export of gas from Turkmenistan. China and India would be subject to US blackmail, just as Japan was before the Second World War, with the so called ” Japanese Effect”: surrender or war. The Japanese, being proud people, chose war.They needed to get control of Indonesian oil which at the time was under Dutch control. To do that, they had to eliminate the US Pacific Fleet stationed at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii which at the time was a colonial possession of the US. By the DOLLAR becoming the permanent official currency of the world, the US would rule the world and its closest Allies would enjoy immense privilege. I will leave it to the reader or readers of this humble essay to figure out which country or countries would benefit the most…

But let us suppose the West loses. Suppose the Resistance Axis of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Hesballah of Lebanon win. Also suppose that in the struggle going on presently in the Middle East, the Saudis and the Gulf States collapse, and the Arab Nationalists who are vehemently Anti-West win. That Turkey slides into civil war, and the Kurds, who are about 20-25 %  of the Turkish population, rise up and seek their INDEPENDENCE. And, suppose that the Palestinians start their Third Intifada, sensing the victory of the Axis of Resistance… What would Israel and the US do? Would a Third World War begin???

The majority of the world agrees that ISIS or Daesh is evil, including the US, but it is secretly supporting it. It’s been bombing ISIS for more than a year with nothing to show for it! Why is Turkey, a NATO ally, openly supporting it?  If ISIS is evil, then countries fighting ISIS are on the side of Good.  Turkey, the US, the Saudis, and the others supporting ISIS are on the side of Evil. The Morals and Ethics of the Universe are on the side of Good. It is self-evident that the side fighting for Good against Evil will win. And by supporting evil, the US will not be able to build the Wall of Enmity. Also, sooner or later the dollar will not be used in world trade. So, the Turkish Boomerang will have disastrous consequences for the world, but especially for the US…

Let us be frank. The modus operandi of the US and its allies is lies and deceptions. The modus operandi of Russia and its allies is IRONY, the cosmic manifestation of truth and justice. Edgar Cayce, an American, once predicted that Russia will become the hope and salvation of the world. Only time will tell.

The Rise of Iran

It can be safely said, because it is true, that the past is the father of the present, and the present is the father of the future. It can also be said, that the past is the grandfather of the future. This is very true for a country called Persia, today known as the modern state of Iran. It is a big country in south West Asia with a population of around 82 million people and occupying an area of around 1.6 million square kilometers. I will address the nation of Iran from the time of Dr. Mossadegh to present.

Dr. Mossadegh was overthrown in 1953 by the C.I.A. because he nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. He was an economic nationalist, hence, he had to be overthrown. In 1945, the US inherited the non communist portion of the Earth. US foreign policy was very strongly anti-communist. The US wanted to make sure that the Middle East did not go communist. The three countries that mattered the most in Middle East were Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. The foreign policy of the US in the Middle East was as follows: Israel gets whatever Israel wants, and Iran, Saudi Arabia do whatever the US wants. The majority of Iranians did not want such a policy. During the Yum Kippur War of 1973 in which Israel would have been defeated had it not been for American help, President Nixon rushed supplies to Israel or Golda Meir threatened nuclear or “Sampson option”. Yes, Israel has nuclear weapons and a delivery system that can reach any point on the Earth…

President Nixon defaulted on gold and told Iran and Saudi Arabia to increase the price of oil and that it had to be sold for dollars. The dollar then became the official currency of the world and the US achieved immense power. As one character in Charles Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol” says: “You control the cash box and you control the World.” Not quite, for there are always exceptions to man made rules. There can never be violations of Nature’s Laws. He, who violates Nature’s Laws, sooner or later gets punished for it. Nemesis is always waiting. The Shah was overthrown in 1979, and the Islamic Republic was proclaimed by Imam Khomeini; Independent Iran was born. President Carter froze or nationalized one hundred billion dollars of Iranian assets in the US. Whether the US will return those assets remains to be seen.

Threats, sanctions, and embargoes against Iran followed. The excuses: Iran will develop nuclear weapons, Iran will destroy Israel, etc., etc.  But Iran continued to develop on its own.  And another truth will be stated here: self sustaining development is the true development. Do not depend on the promises of others. People, countries, individuals who believe in the promises of others become enslaved in the most devious and insidious ways possible. Just look at the countries of Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America, and some parts of Asia.

The world is coalescing. Iran and Russia are becoming strategic partners. Their foreign, economic, and military policy is becoming co-ordinated. Most likely, their common policy will triumph in the Middle East. They will restore stability to Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon to the chagrin of Israel and the US. The sanctions and embargoes have failed. The Islamic Republic of Iran is restoring its former glory as Persia under the founder of the Persian Empire, Cyrus the Great. The past is the grand father of the future. Only time will tell.

 

 

Cui Bono?

The Russian plane tragedy which happened recently in Sinai, Egypt begs the question: who benefits? The Russian plane crash is a significant event in the Middle East and the world. It will polarize the world, and further divide the West from the Rest. Egypt definitely did not benefit. The plane crash could destroy the tourist industry of Egypt and worsen the already pretty bad economic condition of the country. The position of President El-Sisi could be on the line. Forces unfriendly to the President may organize a coup against him and destabilize the country. Cui Bono? Western strategic interests?

The Islamic State claims it bombed the plane. Quite likely. It boasts about having done it. This is to imply the great reach of the Islamic State. But who are its enablers? Saudi Arabia and Gulf States, but also the US, Britain, and Israel. The latter three are its’ real enablers. By using the Islamic State, the West wants to destroy Iraq, Syria, and Egypt, fragment them into smaller states which would then be subservient to Israel and the West. Created by the West, it is an instrument of power to destroy Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and more importantly, Iran. The Islamic State itself gains very little. It demonstrates to the world that it is very evil. This is a huge plus for President Assad, Russia, and its allies, Iran, Iraq, and Hesballah of Lebanon.

The irony of this all is that the biggest losers out of this will be these very enablers of ISIS. The refugee crises of the Greater Middle East and North Africa are destabilizing the European Union. The Kurdish Rebellion of Iraq and Syria is exciting the Kurds of Turkey, a NATO member and strong ally of Israel and the US. Turkey may end up in civil war. Israel is facing the third Palestinian Intifada, which is now in its early phase. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States face disaster in Yemen. The Middle East war is enlarging and is connecting what is going on in Afghanistan, the Ukraine, North Africa, and the Middle East, This is one war with many fronts. It also has socio-economic components. The socio-economic conditions of the European Union are deteriorating from the Baltics to Portugal,  from Ireland and Britain to Greece. The German economy is standing on one leg, and Mutter, Angela Merkel, is on the way out. Contrary to official propaganda, the US and Canada are not doing well at all. No interest rise this year or 2016. Foreigners will determine the interest rates, the value of the dollar and gold. The boomerang of Russian sanctions are in play.

A big battle is brewing for the ISIS center of El-Raqqua. Syrian Forces are attacking the city. The US has inserted 50 or so Special Forces within the Kurds. If the Kurds take the stronghold, the US will have a chance. If Assad wins, ISIS and the US will have no chance. Only time will tell.

 

The Middle East is the Pivot of World History.

The Middle East is on the verge of great conflict.  The lines of conflict have been drawn up. The policy of the US since 1948 has been to secure the existence of Israel. This policy still exists today. The US is more involved in the Middle East than ever before. The policy of Israel and the US is to destroy or fragment any state that opposes the existence of Israel. Israel is a very powerful state, militarily and technologically. Some consider Israel the fourth most powerful state in the world, after the big three countries, China, Russia, and the US. The Achilles Heel of Israel is water. It has to import almost half of its water, mainly from Turkey,  a clearly pivotal state to the existence of Israel. The Armenian Genocide of 1916 in the Ottoman Empire caused  by the Turks is not recognized by Israel nor the US. It is understandable as to why.

Egypt and Jordan have been neutralized and diplomatic relations with Israel established. This relationship is precarious at best though. Libya and Iraq have been severely damaged but not yet destroyed.The last man standing has been Bashar al Assad of Syria. The US has decreed that Assad must go, but he is not going anywhere. A famous Prussian general, von Clausewitz, declared that war is a diplomacy by other means. Creation of the Islamic State by the West is diplomacy by other means. ISIS or the Islamic State has been declared by the US to be a terrorist state…but not really. The US bombs ISIS.. but not really. With all those shiny, new Toyota trucks and modern weapons ISIS is moving with the speed of light across Iraq and Syria. Volunteers are coming from all over the world. Volunteers are mainly Moslem Youth. One famous US senator was photographed with the Islamic State group. Even so, Iraq and Syria are still standing. Russia and Iran have stepped in. A sort of alliance has been formed, composed of Hasbullah  of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Russia. The opposing forces are ISIS, the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States. The massive refugee problem which has been created by US policies in the Middle East is destabilizing Europe. The economy of Europe, already weak, is being weakened further by the onslaught of refugees from the Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan. The vaunted economy of Germany is standing on one leg only. German exports are collapsing. Sanctions are hurting Europe more than they are hurting Russia. If Syria and Iraq win against ISIS, there will be a geo-strategic shift in the Middle East. The Palestinians are sensing this. A massive Palestinian uprising is in the making. China is developing new Silk Roads to Europe and Africa avoiding sea lanes controlled by the US Navy. Latin America is moving closer to Afro-Eurasia. Highways and high speed rail roads will be criss-crossing Afro-Eurasia. The US and its closest allies will face isolation…

Europe must re-consider its position vis a vis Russia. The Wall of Enmity that the US is’ building between Russia and Europe is not going to succeed. It is just a matter of time before the  people of the Ukraine rise up against the Kiev Junta and take their country back (with Russia where it belongs). The future of Europe is with Afro-Eurasia and Latin America. If the Palestinian Intifada turns massive and Israel feels threatened, it may use the nuclear option. Saudi Arabia also cannot be ignored, it is one of the key players in the Middle East. The Saudis are involved in mortal combat in Yemen with the Houthis and are about to lose big. If the Saudi dynasty is overthrown in the not too distant future and replaced by an anti-western leadership, you can kiss the petro dollar good bye. The dollar and the US economy would collapse. The US would face a series of crises it has never yet faced in its entire history. The Israeli economy, which is dependent on the US, would most certainly collapse. Perhaps, instinctively, the Palestinians are sensing that. I repeat again, a massive Intifada is in the works. No question, the Middle East is the pivot of world history.

Saudi Arabia will implode, then explode

Saudi Arabia was founded in 1932, by Ibn Saud, who joined four regions of Arabia into one and proclaimed himself a king. The four regions are Hejal, Najd, Eastern Arabia, aka Al Ahsa, and Southern Arabia, aka Asir. Southern Arabia borders Yemen where civil war is going on. Saudis support ex-president Hadhi, who was overthrown by  the Huthis, the biggest ethnic group in Yemen. Eastern Arabia borders the Persian Gulf,and across the Gulf faces Iran. Eastern Arabia is rich in hydrocarbons, oil and gas. A large desert country, it has to import most of the food for its 30 million inhabitants, a quarter of them foreign workers. The workers are mainly from the Middle East and South Asia. All the important posts of the country are in the hands of the descendants of the founder of the Kingdom, Ibn Saud. The number of descendants is anywhere between six and ten thousand individuals. Women have few if any rights. The Wahabi form of Islam is the official religion. Saudi Arabia, in essence is owned by Royal family members. It is   like the Walton family who owns Walmart.

A special relationship had been established between Saudi Arabia and the US in 1945 during the Second World War when President Roosevelt was returning from the Yalta Conference. The Saudi King met President Roosevelt on an American warship in the Mediterranian Sea. This special relationship was sealed. Saudi Arabia would become the special servant of the US. In return, the US would provide protection.

The US defaulted on its gold obligation or politely stated, President Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard in August of 1971. Up until then, the Central Banks of surplus dollar countries could exchange their dollar holdings for 35 dollars an ounce. The US was losing its’ gold. Over night the gold window was closed. President de Gaulle of France extracted as much gold from the US as he could in the 1960’s. He sent French warships to load up the gold that belonged to France and took it there. Other countries followed. Imagine how enamored US officials became of de Gaulle!  (Incidentally, de Gaulle was forced to resign in 1969. Massive demonstrations took place in Paris in May of that year. Could there be any connection to de Gaulle’s independent economic and foreign policy?)  De Gaulle told the Europeans not to accept Britain into the European Union. He warned that Britain would be the American “Trojan Horse”. Georges Pompidou, a banker, then became president of France. Britain then joins the Union. Any connection there????

The dollar started to drift, and inflation and gold were rising. President Nixon introduced price control, which was not too successful. The key country in saving the dollar was Saudi Arabia. How? Let me explain. The pre emptive war which Israel carried out against the Arabs was stunningly successful; the Arabs were devastated, they lost Gaza, the West Bank along with East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights of Syria, and the Sinai.  The Suez Canal was closed. Israel controlled the Sinai bank of the Suez Canal. Then, Nasser of Egypt died. The defeat was too much for him. Anwar Al Sadat, a general, took over. A deal had to be made. Sadat broke with the Soviet Union. Secretly, the Arabs were encouraged to win their lost territories back. The Yom Kippur War started in October of 1973. Israel was losing this war. Golda Meir, the prime minister pushed back by threatening to use the “Samson Option”: that is, using nuclear weapons to win the war. Nixon ordered a huge military supply to Israel. The front stabilized and negotiations began. The Arab World formed OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Saudi Arabia, being the biggest producer and exporter, played a key role. The Petro Dollar was born. From henceforth, all oil and oil products would be traded in dollars. Every importing country had to have dollars to import oil. As for the US, all it had to do was to print paper dollars.  In 1975 Americans were allowed to buy  gold for the first time since 1935. The Shah of Iran also played a major role in the formation of OPEC. But then the Iranian Revolution came about in 1979 and the Shah was overthrown. The US lost control over Iran. Hundreds of billions of dollars of Iranian assets were frozen in the US. They are still frozen to this day. The Islamic Republic of Iran became the implacable enemy of Saudi Arabia…

Saudi Arabia is afraid of revolution a la Iran, or the possibility of a secular revolution, though this is less likely. The Saudi Royal family hates both Iran and Syria and they share a common goal with Israel:  Israel wants Syria and Iran destroyed, which would give Israel a free hand in the Middle East. (They would get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River which flows in the  shape of a hockey stick through the Bekka Valley of Lebanon into the Mediterranean Sea.) Turkey would like parts of Syria bordering  on its south eastern area in order to control the Kurdish problem. Saudi Arabia faces the Houthi independence of Yemen. The war is not going well, at least presently. The Houthis will deliver a hanjar (Arabic word for a dagger) into the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia. Europe is looking at Russia and Syria in a different light because of the massive refugee problem. If the world economy collapses further, the price of oil may go down to twenty dollars. That would implode the Kingdom, which would be followed by an Iranian style revolution. Israel will face a massive Palestinian uprising. The tragedy of this world is that morally and ethically speaking, the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are on the wrong side of history. Only time will tell…