Category Archives: the Kurds

Syrian War II

The ISIS stage of the Syrian war is changing; the US approach is changing. In addition to supporting ISIS it has also thrown its support behind the Kurds of Syria and Iraq. The plan to partition Syria and Lebanon has not changed. The occult plan to remove Assad and Partition Syria should have been accomplished by the end of 2014 but plans did not pan out; even the poison gas trick did not work.

The plan to remove Assad and to implement “Partition Syria” is still the goal, except it now has a sense of urgency. Assad is still in power and the Syrian Army is getting stronger. Assad is resilient and tough like his father Hafez was. Hafez would not buckle under US pressure and recognize the State of Israel, as did Egypt under Anvar Al Sadat and Jordan in the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter. Lebanon would also not recognize Israel. By recognizing Israel, Anwar Al Sadat paid with his life. He was assassinated in 1979.

Israel thought it could partition Lebanon by itself, and get the waters of Lebanon, especially the Litani River. Israel, like any other state, is not viable without an abundance of fresh water, and their attempt did not succeed. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 2006 failed. Hesbollah gave Israel a very bloody nose. Israel sustained heavy losses and was forced to withdraw. The US and Israel decided to dismember Syria by proxy and so the Islamic State, ISIS, was created. The Syrian war started in earnest in 2011, the year that Gaddafi of Libya was impaled and killed. Remember what Hillary said: “We came, we saw, and he died. Ha! Ha !” Sick mind. Putting a demented twist on Caesar’s immortal words: Vene, Vidi, Vici.

By 2013, they blamed Assad for a chemical attack; it didn’t work. By 2014, the slogan was: Assad must go. Assad did not go. Russian support of Syria increased as did Iranian and that of Hesbollah of Lebanon. With their help, Assad was able to liberate the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, as well as Aleppo. Israel would bomb the Syrian Army position in support of ISIS. Even during so called peace time, prior to 2011, Israeli jets would regularly fly over Damascus and the summer residence of the President of Syria; Syria would not respond.

The situation today is very critical. The US has realized that the only way to partition Syria is to establish an independent Kurdistan out of North East Syria and North East Iraq. The US has forces in Iraq not to help Iraq fight ISIS but to control it and to delay its victory over ISIS. Independent Iraq would help Assad and the US wants to prevent that; the Iraqis know that, Especially Muqtada al Sader and the Shias. The Syrian war is heating up. Turkey will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Severe estrangement is developing between US and Turkey and Turkey will probably leave NATO and abandon the US.

The US shot down a Syrian jet over Syria, an independent state and member of UN. In all honesty, this is a violation of International law. Syria is not an enemy of the US, nor has Syria asked for US help. Also, Syria is not a threat to US security. The actions of the US also violates the morals and ethics of the Universe. There is no justification for such actions except raw power. If the US persists in such actions, there will be a reaction. Remember the Third Law of Motion: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Russia will strengthen Syrian air defenses and US planes and drones will start falling from the sky a la Vietnam War. It is possible that Karma is based on the Third Law of Motion. Iran will also increase its help to Syria.

If the Kurds proclaim their independence with US help, Turkey will enter the fray on the side of Syria. If that happens, the US will lose. Would the US bomb Turkey? Possibly, but not likely. However, again, anything is possible.

Increased Iranian help, let us say, 200,000 Iranian Troops or Irano-Turkish combination of 300,000 troops would arouse US-Israeli-British ire and a huge Middle East War would begin. The war would engulf Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Yemen. The Saudi dynasty and Jordanian monarchy would collapse. The petro dollar would be finished. Oil prices would skyrocket. The EU and the US would enter into super depression. The rest of the world would  not be any better. However, countries connected by land from the Pacific- Indian Ocean to the Atlantic would start to coalesce. Afro-Eurasia would start coalescing. The US and the UK would be excluded.

The plan of the US is partition of Syria via Kurdistan which would become an ally of Israel, supplying it with precious fresh water from the Euphrates as well as oil. The second reason is the humiliating defeat of Russia and its’ eviction from the Middle East. The third reason is the destruction and conquest of Iran, the enemy of Israel and Saudis. By controlling Iran, the US would be able to control the Persian Gulf. It also would enable the US to control Central Asia. Just look the geography of the area.  Extra big war is in the works in the Middle East which may go nuclear.

Syria, Turkey, Kurds, Israel, and the US.

The Syrian war is entering a critical phase. Alliances are shifting but the goal has not and the goal is this: Partition Syria and remove Assad. The original proxy army of the US and Israel has not been too successful of late, but one cannot dismiss them. ISIS has proven that it has many lives; moderates and extremists.

The US support for ISIS is well known in the Middle East as is Israeli. Further cooperation will not bear much fruit. The US is betting now on the Kurds. If the Kurds obtain an autonomous area in the North-East of Syria, the area could become an anchor of US power in Syria and the rest of the Middle East.

The problem is Turkey. Turkey will not tolerate any autonomous region in Syria that is Kurdish, so the US finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Turkey has been a faithful ally of the US since right after the Second World War. Also, Turkey has been a close friend of Israel. Most of the fresh water that Israel needs comes from Turkey. All three countries, US, Turkey, and Israel were, and possibly still are, supporters of ISIS.

The confrontation is increasing between Turkey and the US. Presently, Turkey is sitting on the fence. It is anchored in the West but wants to break free. This is a dilemma of historic proportions. If and when it occurs it will be a geo -strategically earth shaking event. If it happens, the US will be forced to leave Incerlik airbase. It is possible that diplomatic relations will be severed a la Iran.

Syria will shape the alliances of the region for years to come. Turkey has no choice but to side with Syria. This will guarantee Syrian unity and independence. The Kurds will have autonomy within a Syrian state. The US and Israel oppose such an arrangement, so more war is inevitable.

If this re-arrangement of alliances takes place, the end result will be as follows: Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Turkey will be backed by Russia and the opposing forces will be composed of ISIS, Peshmerga of Kurdistan National Government, the Saudis, the Gulf States, and Israel backed by the US.

If the US side wins though, the result will be as follows: Syria and Lebanon will be partitioned and Assad will be gone; water will flow to Israel from the Litani and Euphrates rivers; gas and oil will flow from the Gulf to Europe, decreasing EU dependence on Russian gas; a Kurdish republic will be established in N. E. Syria; Turkey and Iran will be weakened and, most important, Russia will be out of the Middle East.

However, if Syria wins, the following will happen: Syria stays united and much stronger under Assad; Turkey joins the East and its power is enhanced; Iranian power is enhanced as it becomes dominant in Iraq and Yemen and the Gulf; and most importantly, the Saudi dynasty will collapse, the US will lose the Middle East; Israel becomes totally isolated, and the Palestinians may rise up and win.

Whether the US will allow itself to be kicked out of the Middle East without a war remains to be seen.