Category Archives: israel

Turkish Boomerang Update: Coup d’etat

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As I predicted in my original post “Turkish Boomerang” 11/26/2015 regarding the situation in Turkey:

“Turkey will face some serious consequences in spite of the bravado of Erdogan and the economic losses will be severe. Russian tourists, food exports, Turkish firms working in Russia will all be lost or cut. The losses will be in the billions of dollars and will send Turkey into a severe recession, if not a full-blown depression. The world will shun Turkey for openly supporting ISIS. The Kurds of Turkey will rise up. There could be coup d’état in Turkey. Socio-economic upheaval cannot be excluded. Morally and ethically speaking, Turkey has been severely damaged. Russian efforts in Syria will intensify and this “stab in the back” will not be soon forgotten.”

The Turkish coup d’état was predicted (see above). The Turkish Army is a unique institution that was formed by Kemal Ataturk, the father of modern Turkey. That the Turkish Army acted implies that the Turkish situation was getting from bad to worse. The military leadership decided that it must act now to save the Turkish pro Western policy. If it fails, it will change the geo-political situation in the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and the Middle East. The rapprochement with Russia is inevitable, as is the rapprochement with Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. NATO will be shaken to its foundation. Coup d’etats will most likely occur in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The big losers will be ISIS, Israel, and the US. Only time will tell.

 

Will India Switch?

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India is a huge country in South Asia. It is the second most populous country on Earth, with an area of 3,287,263 square kilometers and a population of over 1.3 billion people. Its economy is large and on purchasing power parity is approximately 8 billion dollars; it is bigger than either France or Britain, yet it is not a member of the Security  Council. Strange! It is also a major nuclear power. When one thinks of India, one is reminded of poverty. India and poverty is almost synonymous, but that is changing. India wants a UN Security seat which Russia fully supports, but the US and China are somewhat hesitant.

Since its independence from the British Colonial Rule, India pursued a policy of neutrality. Its first prime minister, Nehru, had been one of the co-founders of Non-Alignment,( the others being Tito of former Yugoslavia, Nkrumah of Ghana, Nasser of Egypt, and Sukarno of Indonesia.) Since its independence, India has had and maintains a close relationship with the former USSR and subsequently Russia. In 2016, its strategic relationship with Russia is solid, but the World situation is changing.

The US is trying to construct a Wall of Enmity, (see my previous posts), from Baltic States in the north east of Europe through Poland, Ukraine, the Balkan States, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, South Asia, the Straits of Malacca, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea. In this Wall of Enmity, India would be like the Key Stone; this Wall of Enmity would enclose Russia and China.

India is developing a close military strategic relationship with Israel , and possibly, France. It is also a large buyer of Israeli high tech weapons and advanced planes from France. Universities of India are feeding the high tech needs of the US and other Western countries. India is also member of BRICS and, possibly, wants to join the SCO, or Shanghai Co-operation Organization, whose founding members are China and Russia. (Other members are some of the ex-republics of the former USSR. Incidently, Iran and Pakistan want to join the SCO.)

Trade routes are being developed by China and Russia, the New Silk roads that would bring Asia, Africa, and Europe together. The BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Republic of South Africa), are working to bring trade and co-operation to the four regions of Afro-Eur-Asia and Latin America. This is anathema to the US.

The US will do its best to woo India to join its Wall of Enmity as a key stone. But how this part of history will flow, nobody knows. Only time will tell.

The British-American-Israeli Alliance

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Five areas of serious confrontation are in progress in the Middle East: Syrian, Iraqi, Saudi-Yemeni, Israeli-Palestinian, and Israeli-Lebanese, and all five are interconnected. The key confrontation of the five is the Syrian conflict. A victory in Syria by either side will decide the fate of the Middle East and the world. There can be no compromise, hence there is a danger of wider conflict.

If the American side wins, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon would be partitioned along ethnic and religious lines. The biggest winner would be Israel, and the biggest losers would be the Palestinians; they would probably be expelled from their homeland. Gas and oil pipelines would be built from Qatar and other Gulf States to Europe. Also, oil and gas from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen would be shipped to Europe via the same pipelines to lessen the European dependence on Russian gas. The dollar would be the official currency of trade. Turkey would also be a winner, but its reward would be minimal. The biggest losers of all would be the Arabs of the Middle East, they would be totally emasculated; other big losers would include the Russians and the Iranians.

If, on the other hand, the Syrian government wins, Syria would become a very powerful state and a great rebuilding would take place. The Syrian people will have enough strength to rebuild their country. With a Syrian victory, ISIS in Iraq would have no chance. Iraq would also rise up and become a powerful state. The Saudi, the Jordanian, and Gulf regimes would collapse. The Palestinians might even achieve their independence from Israel. The big winners would also be the Iranians and the Russians. The Europeans would start drifting towards Russia, one country at a time. And the biggest loser would be the British-American-Israeli Alliance. President Assad would become the national Arab hero who stood up to the British-America-Israeli Alliance and  ISIS.

How the wind will blow and how history will flow remains a big question. Only time will tell.

Gold Will Not Be Available At Any Price

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In one of my previous blogs, I stated that gold does not need the dollar or any other currency, but the dollar needs gold to be the Reserve Currency or Official Currency of the World. Without the connection to gold, a Fiat Currency is a useless piece of paper that is imposed on the people by legal tender law. No other currency can be used in the US except the Dollar. The Bretton-Woods Agreement made the Dollar the official currency of the world with the convertibility of the dollar into gold at 35 dollars an ounce. All trade in the world was conducted in dollars. The US became Master of the World.

In 1950, the US had twenty thousand tons of gold and the rest of the world had very little. The gold reserves of the USSR were secret, but Western Intelligence analysts concluded that they were significant. By 1968, the run on the gold was significant, and in 1971 President Nixon defaulted on the US gold obligation of 35 dollars for an ounce of gold. Very significant events took place after the US defaulted. The War of October 1973 started between the state of Israel and the Arabs, which Israel would have lost without US help. In 1973, OPEC, the Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries, was formed with the help of the US. The US was the godfather of the OPEC, and OPEC promised that the dollar would be its’ official currency. The price of oil was encouraged to rise many, many fold. Third World countries went into massive dollar debt buying needed oil. Inflation ensued, followed by high interest rates imposed by Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve Chairman.

So far so good. The US economy boomed due to the growth of debt. The Crash of 1987 did not matter. In 1989, Communism disappeared, the USSR collapsed, and Japan, the economic power house, went into irreversible decline, which continues to this day. The 1990’s were characterized by the plunder of the Russian Federation under the leadership of Yeltsin. In 1998 occurred the Russian default. The Stock Market boomed, not because of the NASDAQ dot com bubble, but because of the plunder of the Russian Federation by the West with the help of the Russian-Jewish mafia. Vladimir Putin is appointed Premier of Russia by President Yeltsin and the US stock market took a plunge, because the plunder of Russia was about to end.

The economy was on the skids, so  September 11, 2001, happened, but we do not know for sure who is really responsible, but it was good enough reason to declare the War on Terror to revive the economy. Osama bin Laden and his people were blamed. Osama was in Afghanistan, so Afghanistan was bombed and invaded. The Afghani War continues to this day with no end in sight. After the invasion of Afghanistan, the opium trade boomed as production rose from 96 tons annually under the Taliban to over 6000 tons presently and that is more than a several trillion dollar business, the biggest business in the world denominated in US dollars and controlled by the US. (The US dollar is not only the Petro-Dollar but also the Narco-Dollar.) In 2003, Iraq was invaded and Saddam Hussein hanged, not because of weapons of mass destruction but because Saddam refused to sell Iraq oil for dollars. The war in Iraq still continues; the War on Terror keeps the Western Economy alive.

In 2008, due to subprime mortgages and too much debt, the Stock Market and financial markets everywhere faced serious collapse. Under the leadership of Hank Paulsen, the US Treasury Secretary, the system was propped up. By 2011, gold went up to over 1900 dollars, and silver went up to near fifty dollars. After the economic debacle of 2008, the US and the World has been enduring negative energy flow. There is no real economic growth in the US, but statistically there is a concocted growth. Europe is just as bad, if not much worse, and Japan is dying. China is in a precarious situation as well. Third World countries are in depression or even super depression. Eastern Europe is similar. Russia is suffering, but is self sustaining, with very little debt and is the cleanest shirt in the laundry…

Non Western Central Banks are buying and hoarding gold by the tons. Some Western countries are repatriating their gold. People all over the world are buying physical gold and silver. People who buy physical precious metals do not sell them unless forced by circumstances. OPEC is in disarray, many members are selling their oil for other currencies such as the Euro and the Yuan. The dollar is still important but no longer absolute. The world is de-dollarizing. A point will be reached when there will be a panic for buying of gold and no gold will be available. Gold trading will be closed and gold will not be available at any price. The well being of countries such as the US will be changed for ever. Only time will tell.

 

 

Ukraine is about to attack Novorussiya

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Violence is increasing along the line of demarcation in Novorussiya*. The Kiev Regime is planning something, and it’s a matter of war or collapse, so it has chosen attack. Heavy equipment has been moved to the front, and a new mobilization of fresh troops has taken place but the results have not been impressive. The economy is collapsing and the regime of Yatsenyuk is on the verge of self destruction. Poroshenko wants to replace Yatsenyuk with American-born finance minister Jaresko. The Americans are getting impatient, and they want action…

The US is afraid that the European Union is going to lift sanctions against Russia this year. If this happens it will mean that Europe wants a rapprochement with Russia. They realize that a future without Russia is not possible. The war in the Ukraine would create animosity towards Russia which would be music to US ears.

The second reason is that this is the last chance for an offensive by the Kiev regime against Donbass and Lugansk. They are in the same dilemma that Germany was in before the Battle of Kursk in the Second World War.

The third reason is Syria. The US and its coalition is not doing well. Turkey and President Erdogan are going berserk; they are pounding the Kurds of South East Turkey. It seems that civil war is inevitable for them. So the US hopes that a war in the Ukraine might improve its position in Syria.

Spring is here! An ideal time for war. The Ukrainians have been re-equipped by the US. US military personnel are swarming all over the country. Numerous mercenaries have been in the East. Also, both sides have realized that the situation can only be resolved by war. The Minsk II Agreement was never honored by the Ukraine, but the failure has been blamed on Russia.

When the Ukrainian attack comes it will be massive, but the Novorussiya line will hold. Donbas will then counter attack in three directions: Kiev, the River Dnieper region; Mariupol, Odessa region; and Kharkov. People will join the Donbass Army, and the Ukrainian Army will mostly desert. The Kiev regime leaders and the oligarchs will try to escape to Canada, Israel, the US, and some other countries. Many will be caught and punished. The Ukraine will take its rightful place in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Only time will tell.

*Novorussiya is the region of the Eastern Ukraine which is in rebellion. It consists of the two provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk

A coveted prize, the Litani River of Lebanon

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The Middle East has plenty of oil and gas, but water is in short supply. No country feels the lack of a natural water supply like Israel. Israel has only one river, which it has to share with Jordan,and that is the River Jordan which is being gradually depleted as it empties into the Dead Sea. Some natural water comes from the Syrian Golan Heights captured in the 1967 War, and desalination of sea water is another source but it is rather expensive. So, Israel is forced to import water, almost close to half of what it needs, from Turkey.

Israel is highly advanced  technically. It also has thriving agriculture with migrant workers from Africa. Both sectors use large amounts of water. The rate of water usage constantly increases, hence the constant need for more water. The adjacent state of Lebanon has fairly abundant water resources.

Israel is probably the fourth most powerful country in the world. It has nuclear weapons, a delivery system Jericho rocket range of 11000 kilometers, and a sea based missile system on diesel submarines supplied by Germany. It also has an anti-missile system, called the Iron Dome. It produces its own tanks, The Merkawa; its own jet fighter, the Kfir, plus other high tech weapons. It also gets most of its modern jet fighters from the US. The Israeli Defence Forces are highly trained and motivated. So Israel has everything except the water, and that is the problem. War over water is inevitable; the Litani River of Lebanon is in play.

Israel wants to play the victim, it wants to claim it had no choice. Its main opponent is Hezbollah of Lebanon. Hezbollah is well armed with modern weapons, including missiles which can reach any part of Israel. Hezbollah is presently helping President Assad of Syria. They are battle tested and will fight an asymmetrical war. The outcome could be very uncertain. Only time will tell.

Turkey is on a suicide mission

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Turkey’s leadership is in hysterics. By shooting down a Russian plane over Syria, it wanted to provoke a confrontation or even war between NATO and Russia. Turkey hoped to be a key player in the confrontation, but this attempt did not succeed. It has been an overall failure. What the Turks do not realize is that they are on the side of lies and deception. If Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Hesbollah of Lebanon were to be destroyed, the chief beneficiary would be the State of Israel. The above mentioned countries would be fragmented into small sheikdoms under Israeli control. In this arrangement, Turkey would only play a subordinate role. All the wealth of the Middle East would be in the in the hands of Western Corporations. All the land between the two rivers, the Nile and the Euphrates would be under Israeli control. The Israeli Flag symbolizes this concept which may occur in the not too distant future. The US definitely supports this policy. That is why the US, Israel, Turkey, Wahabi Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States support ISIS. The US wants to use Turkey as the spear against Syria and Iraq, and indirectly against Iran and Russia.

Would Turkey be an effective spear of the US in the Middle East?  That is a big unknown, because, Turkey has a huge internal problem called the Kurds. Kurds account for about  25 percent of Turkey’s population, and that is around twenty million people. All of South East Turkey is Kurdish. Kurds want greater autonomy, if not total independence. Turkey has a powerful military that has never been tested.  For Turkey, to so call  “liberate Aleppo” it would need a force of at least 25 to 30 thousand. It would have to face the Syrian Army which has rejuvenated itself. Nothing rejuvenates an army more quickly than a string of victories. In the last six weeks, the Syrian army has had a series of successes. Helping the Syrian Army would be Hesbollah of Lebanon, the Iraqis, the Iranians, and the Russian Aviation. The Saudis claim they would like to fight, and they may, they would enter Syria via Jordan. The Iraqi Shias would destroy them.  The US, Britain, and Israel would help the Turks. NATO would be neutral because it would lack unanimity.

The war will be bloody. But the morality and ethics of the Universe will be on the side of Syria. The Turkish incursion into Syria, if it takes place, would be a suicide mission. The morality and ethics of the Universe are on Syrian Government side because it’s defending the independence and dignity of its people. The crucial battle for Aleppo is taking place. Syria and its allies have an upper hand. US is calling for cease fire because its side is losing. ISIS and the others are on the run. The city of Aleppo is about to be liberated by Syrian troops. The US wants cessation of fire so its side gets re-enforcement and supplies from Turkey, or Turkey intervenes directly. It is not likely that Syria and its Allies will fall for this trick.

If Turkey intervenes it will face the Kurds of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. A Kurdish war of independence would arise in Turkey. Turkey could disintegrate. Other ethnic groups such as the Armenians would also rise up. Remember the Armenian Genocide by the Turks in the First World War One. Also the Balkan States of Serbia. Montenegro. Macedonia, Greece, and Bulgaria might gang up on Turkey and expel it from Europe. They would recapture Constantinople. Do not doubt this, they did it once before. Two members are in NATO, Greece, Bulgaria, and Montenegro is being offered membership. Turkey, of course, is also a member. NATO is being enlarged on the insistence of the US, but, at the same time it is disintegrating.  Also, all these Balkan States are Greek Orthodox as is Russia. Basilica, Saint Sophia, now a mosque is a symbol of Greek Orthodoxy. It would be Ironic if this happened but History is full of Irony. Irony is a cosmic manifestation of Truth and Justice. Turkey has a choice, be a peaceful good neighbor, be good to all its ethnic groups or face disintegration. Under present leadership, Turkey will most likely choose suicide. Only time will tell.

 

Quo Vadis, 2016?

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2016 may turn out to be a very significant year. Many thought that 2015 would be the year of the stock market crash, but this didn’t happen. Many more negatives than positives occurred in 2015 though. Stock indecis reached new highs in the first half of the year, and now at the end of the year are in correction mode. It is not likely that they will crash in the last few days of trading remaining, although they could, since nobody expects it.

On the world scene, the West and Turkey were exposed as chief supporters of ISIS, in addition to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. The Paris and San Bernardino tragedies should not have been a surprise. The Russian plane disaster in Egypt was a surprise but the Western press did not moan about it. The Beirut bombing by ISIS did not get much coverage. The Turkish destruction of a Russian bomber over Syria was not really condemned by the West. The hypocrisy of the West was in full bloom in the Ukraine, the Middle East, South East Asia and other places in the world.

Also in 2015, precious metals, oil, and other commodities collapsed. The dollar was strong and Third World economies were in a severe depression. Canada, Australia, and some European states were entering a depression, but Russia just got stronger. China was trying to stabilize its economy. The Yuan became an International Reserve Currency member, and even though only as a junior partner, this is just the beginning.

What will 2016 bring? It will be much more exciting than 2015. It could be the Year of Super Black Swans. The most important event that will most likely take place is the American presidential election in November. There is a lot of anger and discontent in this country that the mainstream media does not show but which will fully manifest itself this Election Year. There is only one candidate that stands out, and that is Donald Trump. He is politically “incorrect” and people love it. All other candidates, Republican and Democratic, are nothing more than cookie cutter “apparachicks”. Powerful people in the country want to resuscitate Senator Ted Cruz, but they will not succeed; Donald Trump, on the Republican side is unstoppable and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

The economy will play a key role in these elections. In an earlier post I stated that the present US economy is based on three pillars of paper: the dollar, the bond market, and the stock market, and all three are supported by debt. This situation cannot be sustained. The presidential election and the economy may turn out to be very ugly and a super bad Black Swan may manifest itself.

There is a war going on between Russia and the US, whether people realize this or not. The US wants to destroy Russia, leave it fragmented, and plundered. The war in the Ukraine may start any moment. The Kiev regime days are numbered. It will lash out and lose. History is on Novorossia’s side. When war starts, the Ukrainian Army will desert. Only Western mercenaries and jihadis will fight on the Kiev Junta side. The Ukrainian People will rebel and chase the Junta out of Kiev. A super Black Swan may develop in the Ukraine.

A super, super bad Black Swan may develop in the Middle East. It is sad that the West, Israel, and Turkey are supporting ISIS. There is a danger of an Israeli- Hesballah war. Hesballah is heavily engaged in operations against ISIS in Syria, so Israel may take the opportunity to attack Hesballah and get the waters of the Litani River. Israel desperately needs water. Hesballah may not be a pushover. Also, Palestanians will join in the fight against Israel. ISIS might lose the war in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has invaded Northern Iraq around Mosul. The Kurds in Turkey are rising up. Saudi Arabia is not doing well in Yemen. The US, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia may lose because they are on wrong side of History. Nuclear weapons  may be used. A super bad Black swan may develop.

The European Union is in deep crisis; it has no independent foreign policy  Economically, many of its’ countries are in a deep depression.The Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria are in a depression. France, Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are no better. Germany and Scandinavia are also suffering. The Russian sanctions have boomeranged. A super Black Swan here is not likely in 2016. A shifting of Europe from the North Atlantic to Russia is likely though, and migration will be a big problem.

Africa is waking up and wants to control its natural resources. It is shifting East. A super bad Black Swan here is not likely. Latin America is somewhat less stable. The governments of Venezuela, Brasil, and other Latin American republics will be under attack but will survive. The collapse of commodity prices and dollar debt will be a big problem for Africa and Latin America. The shift to the East will continue in this coming year.

The Indian Subcontinent will be fairly stable. The Taliban will gain strength and possibly gain power. The TAPI pipeline is being built from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to India. The Taliban will not oppose it. Iran is developing a very strong strategic partnership with Russia. This Iran-Russia partnership is one of the most natural partnerships to develop in the world. India is developing a strong relationship with Russia and Iran as well. This will continue in 2016. Putin  made a visit to Iran this year, and Prime Minister Modi of India visited Russia this week confirming the desire for this relationship.

China is developing a strong relationship with Russia. China and Russia realize they have to stick together or they will hang separately. South East Asia, despite the TPP, will move closer to China. It will develop Modus Vivendi with China. Its prosperity depends on close co-operation with China. China is the magnet that is pulling the world away from the US. A confrontation in the South China Sea is just one example. But the chances of a Black Swan in South East Asia is not very likely in 2016.

In Summary, 2016 will see increased confrontation between Russia and the US. The dollar will be under attack and gold will rise. Events occurring this year in the US will confirm that the US is in pre-revolutionary state. If powerful individuals try to eliminate Donald Trump, people will rebel. If one of the three paper pillars of the economy cracks, the whole system will collapse. The chances of nuclear war will increase. 2016 will be the beginning of the end of tall buildings, the most wasteful symbols of the system based on waste, arrogance, and greed. People will be returning to simpler things, a respect for natural things, like respect for Mother Earth. It is the only home we’ve got. Happy New Year!

 

TURKISH BOOMERANG

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The Turkish downing of the Russian plane in Syria is a serious provocation with unknown long term consequences. It was planned ahead by two countries, Turkey and the US, because they both support the Islamic State or ISIS. They want control of Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon by hook or by crook…

The US is building the Wall of Enmity between Europe and Russia via the Baltic States, and Poland, through the Ukraine, which I mentioned in one of my previous posts. It wants to extend that Wall of Enmity to the Middle East via Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. The five pivot states of this extended Wall of Enmity would be Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and possibly, Jordan would be partitioned or re-arranged to serve the interests of the US and some other key countries such as Israel. But Russia and Iran stand in the way, and Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are the battle grounds. The airspace of these three countries is constantly being violated by Israel and the US with not a peep about it in the Western press.

How have events been developing in the Middle East? The US has been bombing ISIS for more than a year, with absolutely no effect, because they were not really bombing ISIS but Syrian infrastructure. Western analysts and media were predicting the collapse of Syria and the removal of Assad. Russia, Iran, and Hesballah stepped in, and now, it seems ISIS and other groups are on the run. This panicked the US and Turkey. The US and Turkey could not send troops into Syria to help ISIS. What would the world say? Turkey was never friendly to Russia. It milked Russia via construction projects in Russia, Russian tourism, and cheap Russian gas. The Russians, being sincere, mistook this for friendship. It was far from it. The Turkish stream was a vague arrangement. The US did not want a Russian South stream, why would they want a Turkish stream? The US secretly agreed to help ISIS with which Turkey whole heartedly agreed, and which Turkey already was helping along with the Saudi Arabian and Gulf Monarchies. The US and Turkey planned this provocation, especially now with ISIS on the run. The Paris tragedy confused the situation but did not derail the planning. The plan was to shoot the Russian bomber, and accuse Russia of a violation of Turkish airspace. The Russian pilot would have supposedly been given warnings to steer clear. Imagine, ten warnings in five minutes. The Turks showed some real concern, and then shot the plane from behind. A “real stab in the back” as declared by President Putin, who knows what he is talking about. President Obama defended the Turkish action by saying that every country has a right to defend itself. Of course every country allied with the US does, but Syria not allied with the US so it has no right. This is how the world works these days.

Turkey went to NATO, crying that Russia violated its airspace, and despite repeated warnings, had no choice but to shoot the plane from behind. Turkey was hoping that NATO would use Article 5 (an attack on one is an attack on all) to confront Russia, but this did not happen. Why it did not happen is because the TRUTH sabotaged the plan. The whole world knew that Turkey stabbed Russia in the back. Vague support was given to Turkey but nothing else. President Hollande of France came to the White House on November 24 to organize an aggressive response to ISIS, but “Francois’s”   ideas were only politely considered. Today, November 26, the President of France is in Moscow conferring with Putin.

What will be the consequences of all this? President Obama has probably instructed Turkey to be tough. Initially, Russia wants a sincere  apology and compensation, but Erdogan will offer nothing. Russia should be concerned of what is going on in Ukraine, for instance the cutting off of electricity to the Crimea and the banning of all Russian flights. The Ukraine is also mobilizing troops in Donbas. A sudden Ukrainian attack cannot be excluded. Americans are training Ukrainian troops as we speak. Ukrainians are waiting for the US order to attack. Novorussia must be ready. The possibility of an ISIS attack in Russia should not be dismissed. The Black Sea passage blockade can also not be excluded,but I am sure Russia has alternative contingencies for everything.

Turkey will face some serious consequences in spite of the bravado of Erdogan and the economic losses will be severe. Russian tourists, food exports, Turkish firms working in Russia will all be lost or cut. The losses will be in the billions of dollars and will send Turkey into a severe recession, if not a full-blown depression. The world will shun Turkey for openly supporting ISIS. The Kurds of Turkey will rise up. There could be coup d’état in Turkey. Socio-economic upheaval cannot be excluded. Morally and ethically speaking, Turkey has been severely damaged. Russian efforts in Syria will intensify and this “stab in the back” will not be soon forgotten,

The US is entering a serious phase of economic crisis, and it’s just around the corner. Now, the whole world knows that secretly, the US is supporting ISIS. Whether the US succeeds in building the Wall of Enmity from the Baltic to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean remains to be seen. Nemesis is waiting down the road. Many European states, large and small, will distance themselves from NATO, Turkey, and the US. Only time will tell.

 

 

The Rise of Iran

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It can be safely said, because it is true, that the past is the father of the present, and the present is the father of the future. It can also be said, that the past is the grandfather of the future. This is very true for a country called Persia, today known as the modern state of Iran. It is a big country in south West Asia with a population of around 82 million people and occupying an area of around 1.6 million square kilometers. I will address the nation of Iran from the time of Dr. Mossadegh to present.

Dr. Mossadegh was overthrown in 1953 by the C.I.A. because he nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. He was an economic nationalist, hence, he had to be overthrown. In 1945, the US inherited the non communist portion of the Earth. US foreign policy was very strongly anti-communist. The US wanted to make sure that the Middle East did not go communist. The three countries that mattered the most in Middle East were Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. The foreign policy of the US in the Middle East was as follows: Israel gets whatever Israel wants, and Iran, Saudi Arabia do whatever the US wants. The majority of Iranians did not want such a policy. During the Yum Kippur War of 1973 in which Israel would have been defeated had it not been for American help, President Nixon rushed supplies to Israel or Golda Meir threatened nuclear or “Sampson option”. Yes, Israel has nuclear weapons and a delivery system that can reach any point on the Earth…

President Nixon defaulted on gold and told Iran and Saudi Arabia to increase the price of oil and that it had to be sold for dollars. The dollar then became the official currency of the world and the US achieved immense power. As one character in Charles Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol” says: “You control the cash box and you control the World.” Not quite, for there are always exceptions to man made rules. There can never be violations of Nature’s Laws. He, who violates Nature’s Laws, sooner or later gets punished for it. Nemesis is always waiting. The Shah was overthrown in 1979, and the Islamic Republic was proclaimed by Imam Khomeini; Independent Iran was born. President Carter froze or nationalized one hundred billion dollars of Iranian assets in the US. Whether the US will return those assets remains to be seen.

Threats, sanctions, and embargoes against Iran followed. The excuses: Iran will develop nuclear weapons, Iran will destroy Israel, etc., etc.  But Iran continued to develop on its own.  And another truth will be stated here: self sustaining development is the true development. Do not depend on the promises of others. People, countries, individuals who believe in the promises of others become enslaved in the most devious and insidious ways possible. Just look at the countries of Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America, and some parts of Asia.

The world is coalescing. Iran and Russia are becoming strategic partners. Their foreign, economic, and military policy is becoming co-ordinated. Most likely, their common policy will triumph in the Middle East. They will restore stability to Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon to the chagrin of Israel and the US. The sanctions and embargoes have failed. The Islamic Republic of Iran is restoring its former glory as Persia under the founder of the Persian Empire, Cyrus the Great. The past is the grand father of the future. Only time will tell.