How Will Syria Turn Out?

Peaceful resolution of Syria is not Likely. Larger war is inevitable. The US has just upped the ante. To show to the World that America is great again, Trump wants to win in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen, or where ever else conflicts start.

Of all the conflicts listed, Syria is the most critical, followed by the Ukraine. Bombing Syria for an unproven gas attack by Assad is a serious escalation. No investigation to prove who did it, just a claim without facts that Assad did it. A gas attack by ISIS or Al Nusra and then blaming Assad is more likely what happened. By this action the US seeks the removal of Assad and to partition Syria, which would immensely benefit Israel and possibly, the Kurds; Turkey would be a loser.

According to the Third Law of Motion: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Assad will be reinforced by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Iran might be willing to commit 50,000 troops or more and the Persians are tough fighters. To counter the Iranians, the US would be forced to commit an equivalent amount of troops. Would Congress allow this? Very likely. Why? Because Congress considers Iran an enemy of Israel, therefore, automatically an enemy of the US. Israel would attack Syria in order to fight the Iranians. Israel is already attacking Syria. Recently, Israel lost a plane over Syria. Hezbollah would join on a much larger scale than now in order to fight Israel.

Turkey is the wild card. If the US commits a large number of troops and allies itself with the Kurds, Turkey will expel the US from Incerlik and join Assad. The game would then be over. Will Turkey do that remains to be seen.

Another card that the US could play and will play is the Ukraine. The US would entice the Ukraine to attack Donbas, and Russia would be faced with two wars. For the Ukraine, Donbas is a hard nut to crack; it would lose all its teeth and lower jaw.

Iraq must also be considered as a very important factor. Iraq has a chance to be very powerful and an ally of Iran and Syria. The US is not eager for Iraq to take control of Mosul. If ISIS loses Mosul, the US would lose control of Iraq. Muqtada Al Sadar, the Iraqi Shia leader, will not allow any US presence in Iraq.  Iraq will also help Syria.

Most likely the Syrian war will expand. The US may try to go for the kill with Israeli and Kurdish help. Turkish help would be better but may not be available. One thing is certain: big war is coming to the Middle East, and the winners are unknown at this time.

The losers could be the occult participants in the Syrian war. They have greatest interest in destroying the Syrian state and Assad.

Large Middle East War is inevitable

There are different wars going on in the Middle East, all of them more or less going on at the same time. The purpose of the war in Syria is to partition it. The facade reason is that the “killer dictator” Assad must go. If Syria is partitioned into a Kurdish North East where the Euphrates flows, then water could be pumped to water-starved Israel by land and by sea. ISIS has been losing in Syria, although the final word has yet to be spoken. Whoever started ISIS is an enigma. Selling oil and financial transactions via SWIFT, (the Society for World-wide International Financial Transactions controlled by Federal Reserve Bank of New York), are not impeded by the US. Turkey is in Syria to prevent the creation of a Kurdish State, which would of course be a threat to its’ existence. Turkey initially supported ISIS because it felt it could occupy Syria’s Kurdish region but Erdogan switched after the coup d’état.

Turkey, despite being a NATO member, is being destabilized. South East Turkey, predominantly Kurdish, would be split to join the Kurdish areas of Syria, Iraq, and Iran into a greater Kurdistan which would then be friendly to Israel. Israel would then have an abundance of cheap water, oil, and gas. Turkey knows this. It is switching to Assad’s Syria, Iran, and Russia. A quiet alliance is forming between Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. The “One Belt, One Road” policy of China will go through Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, via the Balkans into Europe. The US is also quietly organizing an Arab anti-Iran alliance that is friendly to Israel,  composed of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia.

The partitioning of Iraq was in the cards of the West: the Sunni West around Ramadi, the Shia south from Baghdad to Basra, and the Kurdish north east around Kirkuk; possibly Mosul as well.

Lebanon would also be destroyed and Israel would get the water of the Litani River. So far, Israel has not been successful.

The Yemeni-Saudi war is not going too well. The Houthis are holding their own against the Saudis. It is quite likely that the Yemeni war will lead to a Saudi demise.

For all the problems in the Middle East, the US and Israel are blaming Iran as the major culprit. Because of Iranian missile testing, (which is not a violation of Nuclear Agreement that US has signed), the US and Israel are threatening Iran.

If the US and Israel attack Iran, Iran will respond by closing the Persian Gulf. the price of oil would go sky high. There would be a shortage of oil world wide. Iran would hit Israel with missiles. If Israel goes nuclear, Iran would try to destroy the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev desert. If Israel persisted with nuclear attack, Pakistan would lend Iran several nuclear bombs to hit Israel in return and a world wide chain reaction would follow resulting in a total collapse of many regions of the world.

Let us hope this does not happen. Only time will tell.

The Geo-Political Motives of Anti-Russian Sanctions

General Von Clausewitz stated: War is the continuation of politics by other means. It can also be stated that in addition to war, economic sanctions are the continuation of politics by other means. The US is notorious for using economic sanctions to overthrow the governments that are not willing to be subservient to its’ interests by destroying their economies. Also, the US uses its’ economic clout to force friendly countries to enter into subservient alliances with the US. NATO is a classical example. The US used sanctions against the USSR from the beginning of its existence to its end.

With the demise of the USSR, the West considered Russia to be easy prey. Yeltsin made Russia an easy prey. Even Yeltsin realized when NATO bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999  that the West was not what it pretended to be. In the 1990’s, the West started to plunder Russia to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. The Russian fifth column and oligarchs participated in the plunder. By quirk of fate or by design, Yeltsin appoints Vladimir Putin as the Prime Minister of Russia at its greatest hour of need.

Putin immediately restores the Russian back bone. He made sure that Russia cannot and will not be taken for granted. Tensions develop between Russia and the West. Selective sanctions were applied against Russia by the US using the Magnitsky Act. The big break occurred with the Maidan coup d’état in the Ukraine in the spring of 2014. Crimea splits and returns to Russia via referendum and not aggression. Crimea was gifted to Ukraine in 1954 by Nikita Khruschov, leader of the Soviet Union at that time. Lugansk and Donetsk split from the Ukraine and became independent. The West cried aggression and imposed massive sanctions on Russia. The ruble was attacked, and collapsed from 29 rubles to one dollar to around seventy. The price of oil was collapsed from around 100 dollars to below 40. Russian officials were sanctioned. Credit to Russian banks and corporations was frozen. They tried to ban Russia from using SWIFT, Society for Worldwide International Financial Transactions. They backed off because they feared the consequences.

Russia responded. It banned all agricultural products from countries that imposed sanctions: the EU, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, and others. Result: boomerang. The Baltic republics are in super depression because they lost the Russian market for their dairy products, fish, and transport. Greece’s condition worsened with the Western embargo. The rest of the EU is in a recession which can be said to be severe. Some reports state that the EU has lost 500,000 jobs and three hundred billion euros of revenue due to Russian sanctions. Damage to the US has been minimal. The US still uses Russian delivery systems to carry its space capsules to the International Space Station. If the US had prevented Russia from using SWIFT, it is likely that Russia would have refused to transport US capsules to space station. Tit for tat.

Many EU countries are clamoring to end the sanctions. President Hollande will not run for re-election. Marine Le Pen of the National Front {Front National} will win. She will pursue independent economic and foreign policy for France. Chancellor Merkel’s re-election is in doubt. Beppe Grillo of Italy, founder of the Five Star Movement {Movimento Cinque Stella}, may be the next leader of Italy. Populism is breaking everywhere. Movements from subservience to Independence are evident on all continents

The idea behind the sanctions was to destroy Russia economically, partition it and control its immense natural wealth. The Ukraine was the first step. The Ukraine’s future is only with Russia. Russia is the Ukraine and the Ukraine is Russia. They have a common culture, blood, and soul.

Clausewitz stated: Russia cannot be defeated.

 

The Age of Survival Economics

Survival economics have been in existence since life began on Earth. The primary instinct of all life on Earth, be it plant or animal, is survival, and perpetuation of its own kind. Mankind has been no exception.

With the discovery of the New World, the Colonial powers of the West extracted immense wealth from the rest of the World. New settlements and new countries were founded. The new countries rose to immense prominence such as the US, and others such as Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Australia, etc. to lesser prominence. They prospered and grew, along with the US, as the Lands of Opportunity. Nobody, but nobody could equal the growth, the innovation, the power, and the wealth of the US. The dollar became the Reserve and Official currency of the World in 1944, and was proclaimed as such in Bretton-Woods, New Hampshire, USA. All the world’s debt and trade was denominated in US dollars. The dollar was convertible to gold at 35 dollars an ounce. The US became the master of the world. The only country that would not buckle was the war damaged USSR. The Cold War was instituted to destroy USSR. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1989 through it own internal decay and weakness. The End of History was proclaimed and Western Liberal Ideas were proclaimed as supreme and immutable like the Laws of Nature.

But it was not to be so. Man made concepts cannot be compared to the Laws of Nature. Economic systems are concocted to serve the economic interests of the ruling elite. Laws and ideas are created to brainwash the masses. Eventually, the system starts breaking down and no laws or recycled ideas can save it. We are at such a period now.

Despite denials, the world is in recession. Actually, some areas of the world are in depression. Wages have stagnated, especially in the EU, Canada, and the US. Jobs created in the US are low wage and part time. Attempts to stimulate the economy through quantitative easing have not worked. SNAP {food stamps} have been expanded to help the poor. Under President Obama, the SNAP program has expanded from twenty three million in 2008 to nearly forty five million in 2016. The food program is a double edged sword. It keeps the poor from starvation but it entices them to buy junk food and drinks which leads to obesity and ill health. They buy processed food because it is cheap. At the same time, the SNAP program is a huge subsidy for giant Agri business, food processors, and giant food chains.

There can be no recovery because the US is suffering from negative energy flow which is reflected in the growth of debt, individual, corporate, and governmental at all levels. Wages are stagnating. Whatever positive energy there is, goes mostly to one percent of the population, the ownership class. Some energy goes to around five percent of the population, the overseer class. The overseer class faithfully serves the ownership class, and some members are abundantly rewarded. The Precariat Class which is around ninety percent of the population gets very little, if any, of the positive energy flow. The Precariat Class has some positive energy flow in the form SNAP, etc, which is a form of subsidy to giant corporations.

In the end, everything flows to the ownership class. Tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure renewal will not help because it will be based on more debt. Survival Economics is already the Modus Vivendi for the Precariat Class. Massive violence in society could be next.

What Will 2017 bring?

 

The world, in 2017, will continue to move away from subservience to independence and to free association of independent states. This is evident in South East Asia where countries are moving away from Western orientation towards rapprochement with China and Russia. Even Japan is moving closer to Eurasia.

A similar process is going in Africa. African states yearn to breath free and not be subservient to the West and exploited by the West for their natural wealth of which it has in abundance. They want to remove the final vestiges of Colonialism. Africa will continue its orientation East, despite Western propaganda. The Western press uniformly condemns Africa for corruption. They are no more corrupt than the West. Corruption is the Modus Operandi of the West to control the rest. It has been going on for centuries.

Latin America, which extends from the Rio Grande in the North to Tierra Del Fuego in the South, has been independent since the early 1800’s, but has been dominated by the US. Remnants of colonialism still exist in Latin America such as in las Islas Malvinas (the Falkland Islands). Neo-Liberal governments are in power in major Latin American countries: Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Colombia. Venezuela is suffering from hyper- inflation and US sanctions. Cuba is without Castro. The people of Latin America are socio-economically very conscious. Argentina, for instance, has a very powerful labor movement, as does Brazil and others. Latin America will drift from subservience to independence in 2017, regardless of who is in power because the people demand it. Most Latin American economies are in super-depression. In 2017, it will be much worse. Violence and revolutions are possible. Mainstream media reports only on how bad things are in Venezuela.

There are three pivotal areas of the world that might change the flow of world history: the South China Sea, the Ukraine and Europe, and the Middle East. The South China Sea will be an irritant. It will not lead to any major confrontation or war, but China will stay firm. India-Pakistan will be very tense. Border clashes will occur along the lines of demarcation but no war.

In 2017, Europe and the Ukraine will undergo profound change. French elections in April will usher in new policy in France. If Marine Le Pen is elected president, a strong possibility, she will pull France out of NATO and the EU. Latin Europe ie., Italy, Spain, Portugal, will follow. German elections will be in the fall. Merkel is a candidate but she has been wounded by the recent Berlin tragedy. The elders of the Christian Democratic Party might dump her and appoint a new leader. The Social Democrats or Alternativa fur Deutschland might have a chance in the election. But whatever government is formed, it will tiptoe to rapprochement with Russia. The present policy of Merkel with respect to the Middle East, migrants, and Russia is very unpopular in Germany. The only faithful allies of NATO are the UK, Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Norway, Denmark, and the Low Countries. The Baltic states are in an economic depression. They might buckle and ask Russia for favors, and a Finnish type of arrangement may follow. The EU economy is in recession and worse can be expected in the coming year.

The Ukraine is a different problem. It was a coup d’état organized by the US that went terribly wrong. The US coveted the Crimea and domination of the Black Sea and lost. The present Kiev government has no longevity and the Ukrainian economy has entered a black hole. Ukrainians are working in Russia and by sending money home, are helping the Ukrainian economy to stay afloat. In 2017, the Ukraine regime will have to resort to war or there will be internal revolt. The present leadership will be arrested and brought to trial. Some will try to escape. The nightmare may finally end later in 2018.  The Ukraine by its very nature is Russia, and Russia is the Ukraine.

The biggest threat to world peace is the Middle East. The underlying cause is the Arab-Israeli conflict. The problems of Israel are essentially two: the non recognition of Israel by Arab masses and the shortage of fresh water. The two are inter-connected. Israel is a very powerful state. It is a nuclear state but lacks water. Lebanon and Syria by Middle Eastern standards have an abundance of water. To obtain the waters of Syria, war by proxy has been concocted. ISIS was created to partition Syria and Iraq. It is not working too well. Turkey is switching to the Iran- Russia side. Israel may attack Iran. If it does wider war and possibly nuclear war may result. The US unconditionally supports Israel.

In 2017, the US and world economies will be much weaker than they were in 2016. The velocity of money in December of this year is the lowest it has ever been. Work force participation is the lowest since the Great Depression. The Baltic Dry Index is below 1,000, way below the 11,793 reached on May 20, 2008. Conditions will worsen. The stock market or bond market collapse cannot be excluded in 2017. The dollar may also experience severe depreciation.

We only have to wait and see what will happen in 2017.

The Dow in Gold and Silver Price

On Sept. 3, 1929, the Dow closed at its high of 381.22, in gold it was 16.81 ounces, gold being priced at 20.67 dollars an ounce. In silver it was 381.17 American Silver dollars. On July 8,1932, the Dow closed in a bear market bottom of 41.22 dollars, in gold at 1.99 ounces, and silver at 41.22 American Silver dollars.
On April 21, 1980, the Dow hit the historical bottom 759.13. In gold at its peak of 1980, at 850 dollars an ounce, the Dow was selling for only 0.89 ounces of gold, and for 15.49 ounces of silver, as silver was trading at its historic high of 49 dollars an ounce. From that low in 1980, an historic new bull market in stocks started and still continues.
On December 9,2016, all major market indices closed at new record highs, the only exception being the Dow Jones Utility Average. The Dow closed at a record high of !9,756.85. In gold, trading at 1160 dollars an ounce, the Dow was selling for 17 ounces of gold, or 1167.66 ounces of silver at 16.92 dollars an ounce. This is the most expensive market in the history of the Dow. How will it end and how soon remains to be seen.

US average income in gold terms from 1960 to 2016

Average annual US income in 1960 was around 4500 dollars. In gold terms, this was 128.5 ounces of gold. Gold being fixed at 35 dollars an ounce. In 1960, the US had the highest living standard in the world. A worker could support a family of five or so members. An income sufficient to support a family today would have to be 128.5 ounces of gold multiplied by 1200 dollars, the price of gold, and one gets an income of 154,200 dollars.
In 1960, wealth disparity was around 25 to 1. Wealth disparity in 2016 is over 350 to 1. Wealth disparity in the last 50 to 60 years has grown so fast and so high, it has no parallel in human history.
Average annual income today, in 2016, is 52,000 dollars. In gold terms that is 43.33 ounces of gold, derived by dividing 52,000 dollars by the average price of gold which is 1200 dollars.
In 1960, the US had a large middle class but today, it is almost non existent, apart from an Overseer Class, the five percent, which is in the service of the Ownership Class, the one percent. The poverty rate was high in 1960, around 15 percent, but in 2016 it is over 25 percent. It is evident that the standard of living of Americans has collapsed over the last 50-60 years, and is approaching that of the Third World.

In 2016, the US has three economic classes: the ownership class of about one percent, the overseer class of around five percent, and the Precariat class of around 90 to 95 percent. The Precariat class has no wealth, lives from hand to mouth existence, and, if lucky, holds two or three jobs, working themselves to an early death. Some members of the overseer class talk nonsense on TV programs glorifying the ownership class, assuring their own cushy existence and brainwashing the Precariat class. Meanwhile the ownership class, travelling in their private jets like Greek gods, scheme how to take over natural resources, control other countries, and, possibly, start wars.

The Precariat Class has elected Mr. Trump the President of US because they desperately need change. Will he deliver? That’s difficult to say. Tax cuts of 30%, deregulation, and more defense spending will not do the trick. What would possibly do the trick is to maintain present spending, but cut defense spending by fifty percent. Also, to cut all discretionary spending and invest that money into infrastructure rejuvenation and new industries that would produce the useful products that the world needs and wants. Also they would pay a living wage to American workers with government sponsored health care. Private, parasitic insurance companies have no business to being in “healthcare”. Good, quality education with high standards must be established. All forms of private parasitism must be eliminated. Whether this will be enacted, remains to seen. The hour grows late and patience is running thin…